• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.108-120
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• 2003

In assessing the long term post closure radiological safety assessment of a potential HLW repository in Korea, three categories of uncertainties exist. The first one is the scenario uncertainty where series of different natural events are translated into written statements. The second one is the modeling uncertatinty where different mathematical models are applied for an identical scenario. The last one is the data uncertainty which can be expressed in terms of probabilistic density functions. In this analysis, three different scenarios are seleceted; a small well scenario, a radiolysis scenario, and a naturally discharged scenario. The MASCOT-K and the AMBER, probabilistic safety assessment codes based on connection of sub-modules and a compartment theory respectively, are applied to assess annual individual doses for a generic biosphere. Results illustrate that for a given scenario, predictions from two different codes fairly match well each other But the discrepancies for the different scenarios are significant. However, total doses are still well below the guideline of 2 mRem/yr. Detailed analyses with model and data uncertainties are underway to further assure the safety of a Korean reference dispsoal concept.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.421-433
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• 2014

In this study, monthly and annual aridity indices which are the ratios of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration in Seoul climate measurement station were analyzed for past 50 years (1961~2010), and the ratio of aridity index simulated by climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for each future period (2011~2040, 2041~2070, 2071~2100) to aridity index for the past period (1971~2000) was analyzed. Furthermore, 5 different potential evapotranspiration equations (FAO P-M, Penman, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves) were applied to analyze the effect of potential evapotranspiration equation on estimating aridity index and aridity index variation ratio (%). The study results indicate that the monthly precipitation, average temperature and potential evapotranspiration were increased in each future period as compared to past period for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Furthermore, winter period showed more significant increase of potential evapotranspiration than summer period, but aridity index showed different patterns as compared with potential evapotranspiration reflecting the influence of precipitation. Therefore, it is necessary to make preparation for the increment of winter evapotranspiration in terms of water resources management. The monthly and annual aridity indices based on future climate change scenarios were greatly different according to potential evapotranspiration equations; however, monthly and annual patterns of aridity index variation ratio (%) in the future period as compared to past period were very similar regardless of applied potential evapotranspiration equation.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.319-325
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• 2005

Planning for the construction of ports and harbors usually takes place without the consideration of tsunamis because of their rare occurrence, approximately once every 100 years. However, recent warnings indicate that massive earthquakes could occur in Japan within the next 30 years. Earthquakes may generate large-scale tsunamis. Therefore, any tsunamis in the vicinity of Japan would also be expected to affect eastern Korea. Therefore, with the looming concerns of tsunamis and earthquakes, immediate attention must be given to the planning of ports and harbors. The warnings deserve an immediate response. The threatened regions cover a very large territory, and the degree of severity of the tsunamis is forecasted to be varied. Therefore, any modeling of the potential scenarios will require a broad array of possibilities. The objective of this paper is to consider the potential damage from tsunamis to ports and moored ships in Japan and Korea. In addition, consideration will be given to how the construction plans of ports and harbors should be changed to cope with the threats from earthquakes and tsunamis.

• Advances in Energy Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.57-64
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• 2017

Electricity is basic need for country development. But at the present time proper planning and policy is require at high pace for power generation network extension due to the increasing population growth rate. Present study aimed to analyze the present and future demand for electricity at household level in Province of Balochistan of Pakistan via simulation modeling. Data of year 2004-2005 was used as baseline data for electricity consumption to predict future demand of electricity at both rural and urban domestic level up to subsequent 30 years, with help of LEAP software. Basically three scenarios were created to run software. One scenario was Business-As-Usual and other two were green scenarios i.e., solar and wind energy scenarios. Results predicted that by using alternative energy sources, demand for electricity will be fulfill and will also reduce burden on non-renewable energy sources due to the greater potential for solar and wind energy present in Balochistan.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2005.05b
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• pp.138-142
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• 2005

The change of precipitation and temperature due to the global. warming eventually caused the variation of water availability in terms of potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff. In this reason national long-term water resource planning should be considered the effect of climate change. Study of AOGCM-based scenario to proposed the plausible future states of the climate system has become increasingly important for hydrological impact assessment. Future climate changes over East Asia are projected from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) method (Min et al. 2004). MME method is used to reduce the uncertainty of individual models. However, the uncertainty increases are larger over the small area than the large area. It is demonstrated that the temperature increases is larger over continental area than oceanic area in the 21st century.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Resources Recycling Conference
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• 2001.05b
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• pp.109-112
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• 2001

A case study of foodwaste treatment was conducted to compare the impacts of four scenarios: incineration, incineration after biogasification, biogasification followed by composting, and composting. Potential contributions to climate change, acidification, consumption of landfill and human toxicity were assessed. Characterization of human toxicity caused by metals and PCDD/DF was performed by three multimedia fate models. Scenarios with a biogasification process showed lower impact on climate change and human toxicity. The ranking of four scenarios on human toxicity varied depending on the characterization models applied. The steady state models placed high priority on emission of heavy metals to farmland, whereas the dynamic model estimated the emission of PCDD/DF from the incineration process as more significant.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.11b
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• pp.2101-2107
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• 2008

This study has proposed the development procedure of 'railway accident risk assessment model' by as a common approach. The risk assessment procedure is following the requirements of the common safety methods (CSM) suggested in EU and was developed based on the accident scenarios. Various hazardous events, which have the potential to lead directly to casualties, were defined. Then, for each hazardous event, the railway accident appearance scenarios and railway accident progress scenarios were developed. The developed procedure will provide a generic model of the safety risk on the Korea railway.

• Journal of Wind Energy
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.45-50
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• 2014

Reviewing the capacity and timing of Southwest sea offshore wind farms, additional farms developing, and potential farms, we devised the long-term plan of domestic offshore wind farms development. In order to rank many wind farms, we determined evaluation indicators and weights of priority. We applied economic and preliminary factors such as wind grade, depth of water, distance from substations, farms scale, MOU signed, and feasibility studies. After deciding the ranking of wind farms by the scores, we planed domestic long-term scenarios of offshore wind farms development to meet national energy policy objectives.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.6-11
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• 2010

Embodying the safety of radioactive waste disposal requires the relevant safety criteria and the corresponding stylized methods to demonstrate its compliance with the criteria. This paper proposes a conceptual model of risk-based safety evaluation for integrating complex potential radiation exposure situations in radioactive waste disposal. For demonstrating compliance with a risk constraint, the approach deals with important exposure scenarios from the viewpoint of the receptor to estimate the resulting risk. For respective exposure situations, it considers the occurrence probabilities of the relevant exposure scenarios as their probability of giving rise to doses to estimate the total risk to a representative person by aggregating the respective risks. In this model, an exposure scenario is simply constructed with three components:radionuclide release, radionuclide migration and environment contamination, and interaction between the contaminated media and the receptor. A set of exposure scenarios and the representative person are established from reasonable combinations of the components, based on a balance of their occurrence probabilities and the consequences. In addition, the probability of an exposure scenario is estimated on the assumption that the initiating external factors influence release mechanisms and transport pathways, and its effect on the interaction between the environment and the receptor may be covered in terms of the representative person. This integrated approach enables a systematic risk assessment for complex exposure situations of radioactive waste disposal and facilitates the evaluation of compliance with risk constraints.

• Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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• 2006.06a
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• pp.789-794
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• 2006

The potential impacts of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand were investigated by means of transient building energy simulations and hourly weather data scenarios for Inchon. Future trends for the 21 st century was assessed based oil climate change scenarios with 7 global climate models(GCMs), We constructed hourly weather data from monthly temperatures and total incident solar radiation ($W/m^2$) and then simulated heating and cooling load by Trnsys 16 for Inchon. For 2004-2080, the selected scenarios made by IPCC foresaw a $3.7-5.8^{\circ}C$rise in mean annual air temperature. In 2004-2080, the annual cooling load for a apartment with internal heat gains increased by 75-165% while the heating load fell by 52-71%. Our analysis showed widely varying shifts in future energy demand depending on the season. Heating costs will significantly decrease whereas more expensive electrical energy will be needed of air conditioning during the summer.