• Title/Summary/Keyword: Position Estimation

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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Effects of Motion Correction for Dynamic $[^{11}C]Raclopride$ Brain PET Data on the Evaluation of Endogenous Dopamine Release in Striatum (동적 $[^{11}C]Raclopride$ 뇌 PET의 움직임 보정이 선조체 내인성 도파민 유리 정량화에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jae-Sung;Kim, Yu-Kyeong;Cho, Sang-Soo;Choe, Yearn-Seong;Kang, Eun-Joo;Lee, Dong-Soo;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul;Kim, Sang-Eun
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.413-420
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: Neuroreceptor PET studies require 60-120 minutes to complete and head motion of the subject during the PET scan increases the uncertainty in measured activity. In this study, we investigated the effects of the data-driven head mutton correction on the evaluation of endogenous dopamine release (DAR) in the striatum during the motor task which might have caused significant head motion artifact. Materials and Methods: $[^{11}C]raclopride$ PET scans on 4 normal volunteers acquired with bolus plus constant infusion protocol were retrospectively analyzed. Following the 50 min resting period, the participants played a video game with a monetary reward for 40 min. Dynamic frames acquired during the equilibrium condition (pre-task: 30-50 min, task: 70-90 min, post-task: 110-120 min) were realigned to the first frame in pre-task condition. Intra-condition registrations between the frames were performed, and average image for each condition was created and registered to the pre-task image (inter-condition registration). Pre-task PET image was then co-registered to own MRI of each participant and transformation parameters were reapplied to the others. Volumes of interest (VOI) for dorsal putamen (PU) and caudate (CA), ventral striatum (VS), and cerebellum were defined on the MRI. Binding potential (BP) was measured and DAR was calculated as the percent change of BP during and after the task. SPM analyses on the BP parametric images were also performed to explore the regional difference in the effects of head motion on BP and DAR estimation. Results: Changes in position and orientation of the striatum during the PET scans were observed before the head motion correction. BP values at pre-task condition were not changed significantly after the intra-condition registration. However, the BP values during and after the task and DAR were significantly changed after the correction. SPM analysis also showed that the extent and significance of the BP differences were significantly changed by the head motion correction and such changes were prominent in periphery of the striatum. Conclusion: The results suggest that misalignment of MRI-based VOI and the striatum in PET images and incorrect DAR estimation due to the head motion during the PET activation study were significant, but could be remedied by the data-driven head motion correction.

Relationship between Brand Personality and the Personality of Consumers, and its Application to Corporate Branding Strategy

  • Kim, Young-Ei;Lee, Jung-Wan;Lee, Yong-Ki
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.27-57
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    • 2008
  • Many consumers enjoy the challenge of purchasing a brand that matches well with their own values and personalities (for example, Ko et al., 2008; Ko et al., 2006). Therefore, the personalities of consumers can impact on the final selection of a brand and its brand personality in two ways: first, the consumers may incline to purchase a brand or a product that reflects their own personalities; second, consumers tend to choose a company that has similar brand personalities to those brands that are being promoted. Therefore, the objectives of this study are following: 1. Is there any empirical relationship between a consumer's personality and the personality of a brand that he or she chooses? 2. Can a corporate brand be differentiated by the brand personality? In short, consumers are more likely to hold favorable attitudes towards those brands that match their own personality and will most probably purchase those brands matching well with their personality. For example, Matzler et al. (2006) found that extraversion and openness were positively related to hedonic product value; and that the personality traits directly (openness) and indirectly (extraversion, via hedonic value) influenced brand effects, which in turn droved attitudinal and purchase loyalty. Based on the above discussion, the following hypotheses are proposed: Hypothesis 1: the personality of a consumer is related to the brand personality of a product/corporate that he/she purchases. Kuksov (2007) and Wernerfelt (1990) argued that brands as a symbolic language allowed consumers to communicate their types to each other and postulated that consumers had a certain value of communicating their types to each other. Therefore, how brand meanings are established, and how a firm communicate with consumers about the meanings of the brand are interesting topics for research (for example, Escalas and Bettman, 2005; McCracken, 1989; Moon, 2007). Hence, the following hypothesis is proposed: Hypothesis 2: A corporate brand identity is differentiated by the brand personality. And there are significant differences among companies. A questionnaire was developed for collecting empirical measures of the Big-Five personality traits and brand personality variables. A survey was conducted to the online access panel members through the Internet during December 2007 in Korea. In total, 500 respondents completed the questionnaire, and considered as useable. Personality constructs were measured using the Five-factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) scale and a total of 30 items were actually utilized. Brand personality was measured using the five-dimension scale developed by Aaker (1997). A total of 17 items were actually utilized. The seven-point Likert-type scale was the format of responses, for example, from 1 indicating strongly disagreed to 7 for strongly agreed. The Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS) was used for an empirical testing of the model, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to estimate numerical values for the components in the model. To diagnose the presence of distribution problems in the data and to gauge their effects on the parameter estimates, bootstapping method was used. The results of the hypothesis-1 test empirically show that there exit certain causality relationship between a consumer's personality and the brand personality of the consumer's choice. Thus, the consumer's personality has an impact on consumer's final selection of a brand that has a brand personality matches well with their own personalities. In other words, the consumers are inclined to purchase a brand that reflects their own personalities and tend to choose a company that has similar brand personalities to those of the brand being promoted. The results of this study further suggest that certain dimensions of the brand personality cause consumers to have preference to certain (corporate) brands. For example, the conscientiousness, neuroticism, and extraversion of the consumer personality have positively related to a selection of "ruggedness" characteristics of the brand personality. Consumers who possess that personality dimension seek for matching with certain brand personality dimensions. Results of the hypothesis-2 test show that the average "ruggedness" attributes of the brand personality differ significantly among Korean automobile manufacturers. However, the result of ANOVA also indicates that there are no significant differences in the mean values among manufacturers for the "sophistication," "excitement," "competence" and "sincerity" attributes of the corporate brand personality. The tight link between what a firm is and its corporate brand means that there is far less room for marketing communications than there is with products and brands. Consequently, successful corporate brand strategies must position the organization within the boundaries of what is acceptable, while at the same time differentiating the organization from its competitors.

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High Speed Rail Station Distric Using Entropy Model Study to Estimate the Trip Distribution (엔트로피 모형을 활용한 고속철도 역세권 통행분포 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Hangung;Kim, Sigon;Kim, Jinhowan;Jeon, Sangmin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6D
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2012
  • KTX step 1 April 2004, after the opening, the second phase of the project was opened in November 2010. High-speed rail after the opening and continue to increase the demand of high-speed rail, Have the speed of competitive advantage compared too the means of transportation. The opening of these high-speed rail has led to changes of the move, the company's position, and the spatial structure of the population of reorganization, such as the social, economic, transportation. In this study, survey data using the High Speed Rail Station EMME/2 of the program to take advantage of the 2-Dimentional Blancing trip distribution to investigate the passage through the trip distribution by the estimation of the parameters of the model to estimate the distribution of the means of access and high-speed rail station to reproduce and Analysis of the results by means of access parameters (${\theta}$) autos 0.0395, buses 0.0390, subway 0.0650, taxi 0.0415, the frequency distribution (Trip Length Frequency Distribution: TLFD) were analyzed survey data value model with the results of comparing $R^2$ cars analysis and model values similar survey data 0.909 bus 0.923, subway 0.745 to 0.922, taxi, F test P value analysis is smaller than 0.05 at the 95% confidence level as a note that was judged to have been. Trip frequency distribution analysis, but in the future, set the unit to 5km-trip frequency distribution middle zone Units from small zone units (administrative district) segmentation research is needed, and can reflect the trip distance 0~5 km interval combined function to take advantage of the gravity model and the 3-Dimentional Blancing applied research is needed to be considered.

Effect of Boron Content on Atomic Structure of Boron-bearing Multicomponent Oxide Glasses: A View from Solid-state NMR (비정질 소듐 보레이트와 붕소를 함유한 다성분계 규산염 용융체의 붕소의 함량에 따른 원자 구조에 대한 고상 핵자기 공명 분광분석 연구)

  • Lee, A Chim;Lee, Sung Keun
    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2016
  • Understanding the effect of boron content on atomic structures of boron-bearing multicomponent silicate melts is essential to reveal the atomistic origins of diverse geochemical processes involving silica-rich magmas, such as explosive volcanic eruption. The detailed atomic environments around B and Al in boron-bearing complex aluminosilicate glasses yield atomistic insights into reactivity of nuclear waste glasses in contact with aqueous solutions. We report experimental results on the effect of boron content on the atomic structures of sodium borate glasses and boron-bearing multicomponent silicate melts [malinkoite ($NaBSiO_4$)-nepheline ($NaAlSiO_4$) pseudo-binary glasses] using the high-resolution solid-state NMR ($^{11}B$ and $^{27}Al$). The $^{11}B$ MAS NMR spectra of sodium borate glasses show that three-coodrinated boron ($^{[3]}B$) increases with increasing $B_2O_3$ content. While the spectra imply that the fraction of non-ring species decreases with decreasing boron content, peak position of the species is expected to vary with Na content. Therefore, the quantitative estimation of the fractions of the ring/non-ring species remains to be explored. The $^{11}B$ MAS NMR spectra of the glasses in the malinkoite-nepheline join show that four-coordinated boron ($^{[4]}B$) increases as $X_{Ma}$ [$=NaBSiO_4/(NaBSiO_4+NaAlSiO_4)$] increases while $^{[3]}B$ decreases. $^{27}Al$ MAS NMR spectra of the multicomponent glasses confirm that four-coordinated aluminum ($^{[4]}Al$) is dominant. It is also observed that a drastic decrease in the peak widths (full-width at half-maximum, FWHM) of $^{[4]}Al$ with an addition of boron ($X_{Ma}=0.25$) in nepheline glasses. This indicates a decrease in structural and topological disorder around $^{[4]}Al$ in the glasses with increasing boron content. The quantitative atomic environments around boron of both binary and multicomponent glasses were estimated from the simulation results of $^{11}B$ MAS NMR spectra, revealing complex-nonlinear variation of boron topology with varying composition. The current results can be potentially used to account for the structural origins of the change in macroscopic properties of boron-bearing oxide melts with varying boron content.

Assessment and Comparison of SUVs of Three Different PET/CT Scanners (장비에 따른 SUV의 차이와 이에 관한 고찰)

  • Kim, Tae-Yeob;Lim, Jung-Jin;Lee, Hong-Jae;Kim, Hyun-Joo;Kim, Joong-Hyun;Lee, Jae-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.34-38
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: The SUV is a widely used semi-quantitative index in PET for the estimation of radio-tracer accumulation in VOI. In this study, SUVs from three different PET/CT scanners were assessed, and differences between SUVs were evaluated. Materials and Methods: The PET/CT scanners which were assessed in this study were GEMINI, GEMINI TF 64 (Philips) and Biograph True Point True V 40 (Siemens). The NEMA PET phantom (Data Spectrum Corp., USA) was used to evaluate SUVs. The NEMA PET phantom has6.8 kg weight and three hot inserts. Two different activity distributions for the background and inserts were tested. The activity ratio were 3.7:3.7:7.4:11.1 MBq (1:1:2:3) and 1.85:7.4:9.25:11.1MBq (1:4:5:6) for each of background, insert 1, insert 2 and insert 3. Acquisition time was 2 minutes per bed position and NEMA PET phantom could be covered by two bed positions for all PET/CT scanners. The SUVs from each PET/CT scanner were compared with calculated true value. Results: For both activity ratios, all scanners showed similar results. The differences between each scanner were insignificant. Each scanner showed 91.2%, 85.9% and 87.2% of true SUV for GEMINI, GEMINI TF 64, Biograph True Point TrueV, respectively. Conclusion: For all scanners, SUVs were slightly lower than true value. However, the difference between scanners was insignificant. The SUVs from these scanners would be clinically meaningful if their consistent underestimation is kept in mind.

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Echocardiographic Diagnosis of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in Chronic Lung Disease with Hypoxemia (만성 저산소성 폐질환의 폐동맥 고혈압에 대한 심초음파 검사)

  • Chang, Jung-Hyun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.846-855
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    • 1999
  • Background : Secondary pulmonary hypertension is an important final endpoint in patients with chronic hypoxic lung disease, accompanied by deterioration of pulmonary hemodynamics. The clinical diagnosis of pulmonary hypertension and/or cor pulmonale could be difficult, and simple noninvasive evaluation of pulmonary artery pressures has been an relevant clinical challenge for many years. Doppler echocardiography might to be a more reliable method for evaluating pulmonary hemodynamics in such patients in terms of the accuracy, reproducibility and easiness for obtaining an appropriate echocardiographic window than M-mode echocardiography. The aim of this study was to assess echocardiographic parameters associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension, defined by increasing right ventricular systolic pressure(RVSP), calculated from trans-tricuspid gradient in patients with chronic hypoxic lungs. Method : We examined 19 patients with chronic hypoxic lung disease, suspected pulmonary hypertension under the clinical guidelines by two dimensional echocardiography via the left parasternal and subcostal approach in a supine position. Doppler echocardiography measured RVSP from tricuspid regurgitant velocity in continuous wave with 2.5MHz transducer and acceleration time(AT) on right ventricular outflow tract in pulsed wave for the estimation of pulmonary arterial pressure. Results : On echocardiography, moderate to severe degree of pulmonary arterial hypertension was defined as RVSP more than 40mmHg, presenting tricuspid regurgitation. Increased right ventricular endsystolic diameter and shortened AT were noted in the increased RVSP group. Increased RVSP was correlated negatively with the shortening of AT. Other clinical data, including pulmonary functional parameters, arterial blood gas analysis and M mode echocardiographic parameters were not changed significantly with the increased RVSP. Conclusion : These findings suggest that shortened AT on pulsed doppler can be useful when quantifying pulmonary arterial pressure with increased RVSP in patients with chronic lung disease with hypoxemia. Doppler echocardiography in pulmonary hypertension of chronic hypoxic lungs is an useful option, based on noninvasiveness under routine clinical practice.

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Time Change in Spatial Distributions of Light Interception and Photosynthetic Rate of Paprika Estimated by Ray-tracing Simulation (광 추적 시뮬레이션에 의한 시간 별 파프리카의 수광 및 광합성 속도 분포 예측)

  • Kang, Woo Hyun;Hwang, Inha;Jung, Dae Ho;Kim, Dongpil;Kim, Jaewoo;Kim, Jin Hyun;Park, Kyoung Sub;Son, Jung Eek
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.279-285
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    • 2019
  • To estimate daily canopy photosynthesis, accurate estimation of canopy light interception according to a daily solar position is needed. However, this process needs a lot of cost, time, manpower, and difficulty when measuring manually. Various modeling approaches have been applied so far, but it was difficult to accurately estimate light interception by conventional methods. The objective of this study is to estimate the spatial distributions of light interception and photosynthetic rate of paprika with time by using 3D-scanned plant models and optical simulation. Structural models of greenhouse paprika were constructed with a portable 3D scanner. To investigate the change in canopy light interception by surrounding plants, the 3D paprika models were arranged at $1{\times}1$ and $9{\times}9$ isotropic forms with a distance of 60 cm between plants. The light interception was obtained by optical simulation, and the photosynthetic rate was calculated by a rectangular hyperbola model. The spatial distributions of canopy light interception of the 3D paprika model showed different patterns with solar altitude at 9:00, 12:00, and 15:00. The total canopy light interception decreased with an increase of surrounding plants like an arrangement of $9{\times}9$, and the decreasing rate was lowest at 12:00. The canopy photosynthetic rate showed a similar tendency with the canopy light interception, but its decreasing rate was lower than that of the light interception due to the saturation of photosynthetic rate of upper leaves of the plants. In this study, by using the 3D-scanned plant model and optical simulation, it was possible to analyze the light interception and photosynthesis of plant canopy under various conditions, and it can be an effective way to estimate accurate light interception and photosynthesis of plants.

Estimation of the Three-dimensional Vegetation Landscape of the Donhwamun Gate Area in Changdeokgung Palace through the Rubber Sheeting Transformation of (<동궐도(東闕圖)>의 러버쉬팅변환을 통한 창덕궁 돈화문 지역의 입체적 식생 경관 추정)

  • Lee, Jae-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.138-153
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze , which was made in the late Joseon Dynasty to specify the vegetation landscape of the Donhwamun Gate area in Changdeokgung Palace. The study results can be summarized as below. First, based on "Jieziyuan Huazhuan(芥子園畵傳)", the introductory book of tree expression delivered from China in the 17th century, allowed the classification criteria of the trees described in the picture to be established and helped identify their types. As a result of the classification, there were 10 species and 50 trees in the Donhwamun Gate area of . Second, it was possible to measure the real size of the trees described in the picture through the elevated drawing scale of . The height of the trees ranged from a minimum of 4.37 m to a maximum of 22.37 m. According to the measurement results, compared to the old trees currently living in Changdeokgung Palace, the trees described in the picture were found to be produced in almost actual size without exaggeration. Thus, the measured height of the trees turned out to be appropriate as baseline data for reproduction of the vegetation landscape. Third, through the Rubber Sheeting Transformation of , it was possible to make a ground plan for the planting of on the current digital topographic map. In particular, as the transformed area of was departmentalized and control points were added, the precision of transformation improved. It was possible to grasp the changed position of planting as well as the change in planting density through a ground plan of planting of . Lastly, it was possible to produce a three-dimensional vegetation landscape model by using the information of the shape of the trees and the ground plan for the planting of . Based on the three-dimensional model, it was easy to examine the characteristics of the three-dimensional view of the current vegetation via the view axis, skyline, and openness to and cover from the adjacent regions at the level of the eyes. This study is differentiated from others in that it verified the realism of and suggested the possibility of ascertaining the original form of the vegetation landscape described in the painting.

Studies on the Derivation of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph for Small Watersheds of Main River Systems in Korea (한국주요빙계의 소유역에 대한 순간단위권 유도에 관한 연구 (I))

  • 이순혁
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.4296-4311
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    • 1977
  • This study was conducted to derive an Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph for the accurate and reliable unitgraph which can be used to the estimation and control of flood for the development of agricultural water resources and rational design of hydraulic structures. Eight small watersheds were selected as studying basins from Han, Geum, Nakdong, Yeongsan and Inchon River systems which may be considered as a main river systems in Korea. The area of small watersheds are within the range of 85 to 470$\textrm{km}^2$. It is to derive an accurate Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph under the condition of having a short duration of heavy rain and uniform rainfall intensity with the basic and reliable data of rainfall records, pluviographs, records of river stages and of the main river systems mentioned above. Investigation was carried out for the relations between measurable unitgraph and watershed characteristics such as watershed area, A, river length L, and centroid distance of the watershed area, Lca. Especially, this study laid emphasis on the derivation and application of Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) by applying Nash's conceptual model and by using an electronic computer. I U H by Nash's conceptual model and I U H by flood routing which can be applied to the ungaged small watersheds were derived and compared with each other to the observed unitgraph. 1 U H for each small watersheds can be solved by using an electronic computer. The results summarized for these studies are as follows; 1. Distribution of uniform rainfall intensity appears in the analysis for the temporal rainfall pattern of selected heavy rainfall event. 2. Mean value of recession constants, Kl, is 0.931 in all watersheds observed. 3. Time to peak discharge, Tp, occurs at the position of 0.02 Tb, base length of hlrdrograph with an indication of lower value than that in larger watersheds. 4. Peak discharge, Qp, in relation to the watershed area, A, and effective rainfall, R, is found to be {{{{ { Q}_{ p} = { 0.895} over { { A}^{0.145 } } }}}} AR having high significance of correlation coefficient, 0.927, between peak discharge, Qp, and effective rainfall, R. Design chart for the peak discharge (refer to Fig. 15) with watershed area and effective rainfall was established by the author. 5. The mean slopes of main streams within the range of 1.46 meters per kilometer to 13.6 meter per kilometer. These indicate higher slopes in the small watersheds than those in larger watersheds. Lengths of main streams are within the range of 9.4 kilometer to 41.75 kilometer, which can be regarded as a short distance. It is remarkable thing that the time of flood concentration was more rapid in the small watersheds than that in the other larger watersheds. 6. Length of main stream, L, in relation to the watershed area, A, is found to be L=2.044A0.48 having a high significance of correlation coefficient, 0.968. 7. Watershed lag, Lg, in hrs in relation to the watershed area, A, and length of main stream, L, was derived as Lg=3.228 A0.904 L-1.293 with a high significance. On the other hand, It was found that watershed lag, Lg, could also be expressed as {{{{Lg=0.247 { ( { LLca} over { SQRT { S} } )}^{ 0.604} }}}} in connection with the product of main stream length and the centroid length of the basin of the watershed area, LLca which could be expressed as a measure of the shape and the size of the watershed with the slopes except watershed area, A. But the latter showed a lower correlation than that of the former in the significance test. Therefore, it can be concluded that watershed lag, Lg, is more closely related with the such watersheds characteristics as watershed area and length of main stream in the small watersheds. Empirical formula for the peak discharge per unit area, qp, ㎥/sec/$\textrm{km}^2$, was derived as qp=10-0.389-0.0424Lg with a high significance, r=0.91. This indicates that the peak discharge per unit area of the unitgraph is in inverse proportion to the watershed lag time. 8. The base length of the unitgraph, Tb, in connection with the watershed lag, Lg, was extra.essed as {{{{ { T}_{ b} =1.14+0.564( { Lg} over {24 } )}}}} which has defined with a high significance. 9. For the derivation of IUH by applying linear conceptual model, the storage constant, K, with the length of main stream, L, and slopes, S, was adopted as {{{{K=0.1197( {L } over { SQRT {S } } )}}}} with a highly significant correlation coefficient, 0.90. Gamma function argument, N, derived with such watershed characteristics as watershed area, A, river length, L, centroid distance of the basin of the watershed area, Lca, and slopes, S, was found to be N=49.2 A1.481L-2.202 Lca-1.297 S-0.112 with a high significance having the F value, 4.83, through analysis of variance. 10. According to the linear conceptual model, Formular established in relation to the time distribution, Peak discharge and time to peak discharge for instantaneous Unit Hydrograph when unit effective rainfall of unitgraph and dimension of watershed area are applied as 10mm, and $\textrm{km}^2$ respectively are as follows; Time distribution of IUH {{{{u(0, t)= { 2.78A} over {K GAMMA (N) } { e}^{-t/k } { (t.K)}^{N-1 } }}}} (㎥/sec) Peak discharge of IUH {{{{ {u(0, t) }_{max } = { 2.78A} over {K GAMMA (N) } { e}^{-(N-1) } { (N-1)}^{N-1 } }}}} (㎥/sec) Time to peak discharge of IUH tp=(N-1)K (hrs) 11. Through mathematical analysis in the recession curve of Hydrograph, It was confirmed that empirical formula of Gamma function argument, N, had connection with recession constant, Kl, peak discharge, QP, and time to peak discharge, tp, as {{{{{ K'} over { { t}_{ p} } = { 1} over {N-1 } - { ln { t} over { { t}_{p } } } over {ln { Q} over { { Q}_{p } } } }}}} where {{{{K'= { 1} over { { lnK}_{1 } } }}}} 12. Linking the two, empirical formulars for storage constant, K, and Gamma function argument, N, into closer relations with each other, derivation of unit hydrograph for the ungaged small watersheds can be established by having formulars for the time distribution and peak discharge of IUH as follows. Time distribution of IUH u(0, t)=23.2 A L-1S1/2 F(N, K, t) (㎥/sec) where {{{{F(N, K, t)= { { e}^{-t/k } { (t/K)}^{N-1 } } over { GAMMA (N) } }}}} Peak discharge of IUH) u(0, t)max=23.2 A L-1S1/2 F(N) (㎥/sec) where {{{{F(N)= { { e}^{-(N-1) } { (N-1)}^{N-1 } } over { GAMMA (N) } }}}} 13. The base length of the Time-Area Diagram for the IUH was given by {{{{C=0.778 { ( { LLca} over { SQRT { S} } )}^{0.423 } }}}} with correlation coefficient, 0.85, which has an indication of the relations to the length of main stream, L, centroid distance of the basin of the watershed area, Lca, and slopes, S. 14. Relative errors in the peak discharge of the IUH by using linear conceptual model and IUH by routing showed to be 2.5 and 16.9 percent respectively to the peak of observed unitgraph. Therefore, it confirmed that the accuracy of IUH using linear conceptual model was approaching more closely to the observed unitgraph than that of the flood routing in the small watersheds.

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