• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.12 no.12
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• pp.1169-1172
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• 2006

The prices of chemical products are fluctuated by several factors. The chemical companies can't predict and be ready to all of these changes, so they are exposed to the risk of a profit fluctuation. But they can reduce this risk by making a well-diversified product portfolio. This problem can be thought as the optimization of the product portfolio. We assume that the profits come from the 'spread' between a naphtha and a chemical product. We calculate a mean and a variation of each spread and develop an automatic module to calculate the optimal portion of each product. The theory is based on the Markowitz portfolio management. It maximizes the expected return while minimizing the volatility. At last we draw an investment selection curve to compare each alternative and to demonstrate the superiority. And we suggest that an investment selection curve can be a decision-making tool.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.63-71
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• 2009

The traditional portfolio optimization problem is to find an investment plan for securities with reasonable trade-off between the rate of return and the risk. The seminal work in this field is the mean-variance model by Markowitz, which is a quadratic programming problem. Since it is now computationally practical to solve the model, a number of alternative models to overcome this complexity have been proposed. In this paper, among the alternatives, we focus on the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model. More specifically, we developed an algorithm to obtain an optimal portfolio from the MAD model. We showed mathematically that the algorithm can solve the problem to optimality. We tested it using the real data from the Korean Stock Market. The results coincide with our expectation that the method can solve a variety of problems in a reasonable computational time.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.233-244
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• 2017

IT portfolio, meaning the ratio of investment with four different purposes of IT, is widely used for evaluating the adequacy of investment and its performance within firms. Despite of such a useful framework looking at investment on IT, IT portfolio in agriculture industry seems to be differentiated from other industries. In this study, we compared IT portfolios of farms: grain, field fruit and vegetable, greenhouse fruit, greenhouse vegetable, beef cattle and pig. We classified farms by their return on equity (ROE) in order to analyze the relationship between IT portfolio of each crop and performance. Then, we found patterns of IT portfolios of top-performance farms compared to all farms for each agricultural product. Lastly, peculiarities of each crop are interpreted and discussed to find out top-performance farms' IT investment patterns. From our study, it could be inferred that monotonous IT investments may not be as effective.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1999.04a
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• pp.152-153
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• 1999

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.81-101
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• 2003

The financial statements purpose to provide useful information to decision-making process of business managers. The value-relevant information, however, embedded in the financial statement has been often overlooked in Korea. In fact, the financial statements in Korea have been utilized for nothing but account reports to Security Supervision Boards (SSB). The objective of this study is to develop earnings forecasting models through financial statement analysis using artificial intelligence (AI). AI methods are employed in forecasting earnings: artificial neural networks (ANN) for manufacturing industry and case~based reasoning (CBR) for banking industry. The experimental results using such AI methods are as follows. Using ANN for manufacturing industry records 63.2% of hit ratio for out-of-sample, which outperforms the logistic regression by around 4%. The experiment through CBR for banking industry shows 65.0% of hit ratio that beats the statistical method by 13.2% in holdout sample. Finally, the prediction results for manufacturing industry are validated through monitoring the shift in cumulative returns of portfolios based on the earning prediction. The portfolio with the firms whose earnings are predicted to increase is designated as best portfolio and the portfolio with the earnings-decreasing firms as worst portfolio. The difference between two portfolios is about 3% of cumulative abnormal return on average. Consequently, this result showed that the financial statements in Korea contain the value-relevant information that is not reflected in stock prices.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.572-577
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• 2008

In order to apply strategic advanced project management to the Korean construction industry, the study conducted a comparative analysis of the project management body of knowledge of the advanced countries such as the USA and Japan as well as Europe. As a result, it was found that the connection to 'execution' of 'strategy' was highlighted as a common main issue in the theoretical background of project management body of knowledge, and strategic planning, which aligns 'program management' based on the integration of multiple project management and operations in single project with 'portfolio management' for selection and concentration, has been emphasized. Accordingly, the study built up the framework for the application of strategic advanced project management for strategic action in the Korean construction industry and proposed the following applicable solutions for implementation into the current Korean construction industry: 1) Innovate global competitiveness by preparing an 'ideology and philosophy' for the strategic action of an organization, 2) Establish a strategic 'environment' in consideration of the culture and structure of an organization, 3) Propose a strategic 'vision' for attaining a realizable goal within an organization, 4) Create an 'investment' on the portfolio in line with the strategy, 5) 'Execute' the program through the portfolio and project management. Lastly, the study brought up strategies for sustainable growth by applying strategic advanced project management to the Korean construction industry with a view to acquiring 'Performance' through the implementation and operation of their integrated system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.121-127
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• 2012

Vehicle Inspection System is to examine the condition of vehicle regularly at the national level to protect lives and properties of the people from traffic accidents due to vehicle's fault. However, the vehicle inspection method, criteria, period and effectiveness have become a controversial issue, because of examining safety management of vehicle by drivers regardless of regular vehicle inspection. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate vehicle inspection timeliness and risk level of inspection items through basic statistical survey and portfolio analysis. The results of the research through practical analysis are: (1) The inspection failure rates between 3 and 6 model year tend to increase. (2) The failure of inspection items for safety highly impacts on traffic accident rate in terms of accident risks. (3) According to the result of portfolio analysis, faulty items located 1st quadrant are riding device, driveline system, controlling device, steering actuator, and fuel system.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.81-89
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• 2007

We analyzed the technology portfolio matrix for the car navigation technology using QFD method and accordingly suggested the navigation technology development direction. QFD is a useful tool to analyze the customer demands and the technologies. Depending on the survey results from the latent customers and the technology capabilities from the study of the national institutions, we suggested technology portfolio matrix. The visual HMI technology, safe driving support technology, and the navigator information management technology are the most prospective area for R&D investment according to the portfolio matrix.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.37-48
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• 2020

Purpose - This study empirically investigates whether the risk property included in fat-tails of return distributions is systematic or unsystematic based on the devised statistical methods. Design/methodology/approach - This study devised empirical designs based on two traditional methods: principal component analysis (PCA) and the testing method of portfolio diversification effect. The fatness of the tails in return distributions is quantitatively measured by statistical probability. Findings - According to the results, the risk property in the fat-tails of return distributions has the economic meanings of eigenvalues having a value greater than 1 through PCA, and also systematic risk that cannot be removed through portfolio diversification. In other words, the fat-tails of return distributions have the properties of the common factors, which may explain the changes of stock returns. Meanwhile, the fatness of the tails in the portfolio return distributions shows the asymmetric relationship of common factors on the tails of return distributions. The negative tail in the portfolio return distribution has a much closer relation with the property of common factors, compared to the positive tail. Research implications or Originality - This empirical evidence may complement the existing studies related to tail risk which is utilized in pricing models as a common factor.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.59-79
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• 2021

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most common risk management tools in finance. Since a portfolio of several assets, rather than one asset portfolio, is advantageous in the risk diversification for investment, VaR for a portfolio of two or more assets is often used. In such cases, multivariate distributions of asset returns are considered to calculate VaR of the corresponding portfolio. Copulas are one way of generating a multivariate distribution by identifying the dependence structure of asset returns while allowing many different marginal distributions. However, they are used mainly for bivariate distributions and are not widely used in modeling joint distributions for many variables in finance. In this study, we would like to examine the performance of various copulas for high dimensional data and several different dependence structures. This paper compares copulas such as elliptical, vine, and hierarchical copulas in computing the VaR of portfolios to find appropriate copula functions in various dependence structures among asset return distributions. In the simulation studies under various dependence structures and real data analysis, the hierarchical Clayton copula shows the best performance in the VaR calculation using four assets. For marginal distributions of single asset returns, normal inverse Gaussian distribution was used to model asset return distributions, which are generally high-peaked and heavy-tailed.