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Trading Strategies in Bulk Shipping: the Application of Artificial Neural Networks

  • Yun, Hee-Sung;Lim, Sang-Seop;Lee, Ki-Hwan
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.337-343
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    • 2016
  • The core decisions of bulk shipping businesses can be summarized as the timing and the choice of period for which carrying capacity is traded. In particular, frequent decisions to trade freight either with repeated spot transactions or with a one-off long-term deal critically impact business performance. Even though a variety of freight trading strategies can be employed to facilitate the decisions, chartering practitioners have not been active in utilizing these strategies, and academic research has rarely proposed applicable solutions. The specific properties of freight as a tradable commodity are not properly reflected in existing studies, and limitations have been reported in their application to the real world. This research focused on the establishment of applicable freight trading strategies by taking into account two properties of freight: time perishability and term-dependant pricing. In addition to traditional trading strategies, artificial neural networks were applied for the first time to the test of freight trading strategies. The performances of the trading strategies were measured and compared to produce a remarkable outperformance of the ANN. This research is expected to make a significant contribution to chartering practices by enhancing the quality of chartering decisions and eventually enabling the effective management of freight rate risk. In addition to methodological expansion, the result will propose a way to approach the controversial issue of freight market efficiency.

Development of a GUI Program for the Position Prediction of Distressed Vessel (조난 선박의 위치추정을 위한 GUI 프로그램 개발)

  • 강신영
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2002
  • To provide an easy operation of drift prediction model in SAR(search and rescue) mission a GUI program running on Window environment has developed. Users can make choice of input data on the screen by just clicking the mouse and the prediction results of datum points and trajectories of vessels are drawn on the map. The program contains both Leeway Equation model and mathematical model. The FORTRAN language was used in programming and Lehay Winteracter 4.0 software was utilized for graphic presentation. The result of May, 2001 Busan field experiment was plotted with that of model prediction for demonstration purpose.

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Theoretical Approach of Optimization of the Gain Parameters α, β and γ of a Tracking Module for ARPA system on Board Warships

  • Jeong, Tae-Gweon;Pan, Bao-Feng;Njonjo, Anne Wanjiru
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.55-57
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    • 2015
  • The tracking system plays a key role in accurate estimation and prediction of maneuvering vessel's position and velocity in a bid to enhance safety by taking avoiding action against collision. Therefore, in order to achieve this, many ocean- going vessels are equipped with radar and the ARPA system. However, the accuracy of prediction highly depends on the choice of the gain parameters, ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$ and ${\gamma}$ employed in the tracking filter. P revious research of this paper was based on theoretically developing an algorithm for a tracking module. This research paper is hence a continuation by the authors to determine the optimal values of the gain parameters used in the tracking module. A tracking algorithm is developed using the ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}$ filter to carry out prediction and smoothing of the positions and velocities. Numerical simulations are then performed to evaluate the optimal values of the smoothing parameters that will improve the performance of the tracking module and reduce measurement noise. The twice distance root mean square (2drms) is then calculated to determine error variation.

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Public Perception of establishing Marine Protected Areas in Guimaras Province, Philippines using Contingent Valuation Method

  • Kim, Tae-Goun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.91-93
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    • 2014
  • Philippine fisheries code of 1998 (Republic Act 8550), which is enacted to achieve food security by managing, conserving and protecting fishery resources, obliges local governments to designate no less than 15% of jurisdictional municipal water as fisheries resource protection zone. Accordingly, Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are the most extensively established as fisheries management and conservation tool and over 1,500 MPAs are reported in the Philippines. But there has been debate on the pros and cons of implementing MPAs because of the positive and negative impacts on local communities and fishermen. A dichotomous-choice contingent-valuation survey was conducted in the two municipalities of Guimaras, Philippines to investigate public opinion in debates over MPAs and to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for MPAs to protect and conserve marine habitats for fishery resources. For the benefits and costs of MPAs, 43.6% of respondents thought the costs would be larger than the benefit, but 91% respondents voted in favor of increasing MPAs for fisheries resources as a protective measure. Finally, the estimated Turnbull lower-bound mean WTP (36.75ha) was php 493.6(US$ 11.3) per household to establish the additional MPA (36.75ha) in their municipality waters.

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A Study on the Feeder Transit Route Design System (대중교통 지선노선 선정기법에 관한 연구)

  • 배기목
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.316-321
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    • 2003
  • The bus as a feeder trip should supply equality service to the whole community. But in spite of the change of latent demand to the bus by the variety of regional structural change, the existing bus route can not supply effective feeder service. For cope with the latent demand to the bus, this study establish a concept that frame the feeder bus route design system for changing of the existing bus route or creating of bus route. The concept of feeder bus route design system from this study is not to frame the whole bus network but to frame the single route to a unit OD pair. So, this study have assumption that do not consider the wating time at bus stop and transfer time. This system is consist of three phase. First is limitation of examination road network, second is enumeration of a most suitable route, and final is determination of the optimum bus route. However, a precondition is that the necessary time from the origin to the destination is brief, and having many demand.

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Development of a GUI Program for the Position Prediction of Distressed Vessel (조난 선박의 위치추정을 위한 GUI 프로그램 개발)

  • Kang, Sin-Young
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.491-495
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    • 2002
  • To provide an easy operation of drift prediction model in SAR(search and rescue) mission a GUI program running on Windows environment has developed. Users can make choice of input data on the screen by just clicking the mouse and the prediction results of datum points and trajectories of vessels are drawn on the electric chart. The program contains both Leeway Equation model and Mathematical model. The FORTRAN language was used in programming and Lehay Winteraction 4.0 software was utilized for graphic presentation. The result of May, 2001 Busan field experiment was plotted with that of model prediction for demonstration purpose.

Fixed Versus Floating Interest Rates in Shipping Finance: A Behavioral Finance Perspective

  • Kim, Wu-Seok
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.259-275
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzed the decision-making process in ship finance for the choice between fixed and floating interest rates using behavioral finance theories. Results confirmed that causes and background of decision-making processes could be explicitly explained by the framework of behavioral finance theories. This study also determined whether decisions were irrational. A case-study research was applied as the methodology. Decision-making data on ship finance collected through narrative and questionnaire responses were analyzed and evaluated using behavioral finance theories. Theories of behavioral finance used in the analysis and research of this study included availability heuristic, anchoring effect, and opportunity cost theory. Narrative and survey responses were clearly explained by theories of behavioral finance. It was found that a shipping company suffered additional losses owing to decisions that included behavioral finance errors. Behavioral finance theories largely influenced the decision-making process of choosing between a fixed interest rate and a floating interest rate. Shipping finance decisions related to interest rate selections could be clearly explained by behavioral finance theories. Errors related to behavioral finance could result in irrational decisions. Thus, managers who are responsible for shipping finance should remain vigilant toward any behavioral finance errors when making shipping finance decisions.

FUTURE GASOLINE AND DIESEL ENGINES - REVIEW

  • Monaghan, M.L.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2000
  • This paper reviews the main drivers forcing change and progress in powertrains for passenger cars in the coming years. The environmental drivers of omissions and CO2 will force better technical performance, but customer demand for increased choice will force change in the basic engine design and provide opportunities for alternate configurations of powertrain. Gasoline engines will embody refinements of valve train actuations as well as developments in combustion, especially direct injection and possibly a lean booated form of direct injection. Nevertheless, the conventional, port injected engine will continue to be the dominant engine for some years to come. The high speed direct injection diesel will very soon supplant its indirect injection predecessor completely. It will take an increasing share of the total powertrain market as improved specific power and refinement make it even more attractive to the customer. Car manufacturers will provide diesel models to satisfy this customer demand as well as using the efficiency of the diesel to enable them to meet their fleet CO2 commitments. Both gasoline and diesel engines will see an increasing degree of electrification and partial hybridisation as efficient flywheel mounted electrical devices become available.

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A Study on the Mixture Formation and Combustion Characteristics in Lean Burn Engine (희박연소기관의 혼합기형성 및 연소특성에 관한 연구)

  • 이창식;서영호;조행묵;김현정
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.80-86
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    • 1996
  • In order to decrease fuel comsumption rate and emissions, lean burn engine which has equipped swirl control valve, is investigated experimentally on the test bench. Single cylinder engine was used to test the combustion and emission performance with 4 kinds of swirl valve. Decrease in the carbon monoxide, hyerocarbon and specific fuel consumption was shown at the lean condition, which means that a good choice of swirl valve on the given intake port geometry can be used to increase the combustion efficiency and lean limit.

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A Study on Location Determining Choice Factor and Satisfaction Evaluation of Companies in Free Economic Zones: Focusing on Incheon and Busan·Jinhae Free Economic Zones (경제자유구역 입주결정 선택기준 및 만족도 평가: 인천, 부산·진해 경제자유구역 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hyun Ah;Kim, Tae Seung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzes Korea's Free Economic Zone (FEZ), by particularly focusing on Incheon and Busan-Jinhae zones, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and a questionnaire survey analysis. The study compares important selection criteria and satisfaction of resident companies in Incheon and Busan-Jinhae FEZs. The findings are as follows. First, the AHP method results suggest that companies in both Incheon and Busan-Jinhae FEZs are affected by location, economic society, and policy. In subordinate determining factor for land, it is ordered by ease of gaining land, inexpensive rental fee in Incheon and by convenient access to close markets and inexpensive rental fee in Busan-Jinhae. Second, the questionnaire survey results suggest high adjacent market size and easy access in Incheon FEZ and sound logistics infrastructure in Busan-Jinhae FEZ. For this reason, Incheon has a high value of logistics infrastructure and potential market near metropolitan area and Busan-Jinhae, has a high value of transportation Infrastructure near industrial district. These findings will contribute to policy data for activating and promoting the Free Economic Zone.