• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.131-136
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• 2023

Local youth outmigration is increasingly growing. Various studies are being conducted to identify the factors contributing to this problem, but there is a lack of research analyzing each region individually. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the factors influencing youth outmigration in Busan and predict the risk levels of youth population outflow using machine learning techniques. By utilizing district-level data collected from the KOSIS, we divided the population into three groups based on age (the early 20s, late 20s, and early 30s) and employed Decision Tree and Random Forest algorithms to classify and predict the risk levels of youth population outmigration. The results indicate that the predictive model for youth outmigration risk levels achieves the highest accuracies of 0.93, 0.75, and 0.63 for each age group, respectively.

• The Korean Journal of Pain
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.153-165
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• 2020

Background: Well-validated risk prediction models help to identify individuals at high risk of diseases and suggest preventive measures. A recent systematic review reported lack of validated prediction models for low back pain (LBP). We aimed to develop prediction models to estimate the 8-year risk of developing LBP and its recurrence. Methods: A population based prospective cohort study using data from 435,968 participants in the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort enrolled from 2002 to 2010. We used Cox proportional hazards models. Results: During median follow-up period of 8.4 years, there were 143,396 (32.9%) first onset LBP cases. The prediction model of first onset consisted of age, sex, income grade, alcohol consumption, physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, blood pressure, and medical history of diseases. The model of 5-year recurrence risk was comprised of age, sex, income grade, BMI, length of prescription, and medical history of diseases. The Harrell's C-statistic was 0.812 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.804-0.820) and 0.916 (95% CI, 0.907-0.924) in validation cohorts of LBP onset and recurrence models, respectively. Age, disc degeneration, and sex conferred the highest risk points for onset, whereas age, spondylolisthesis, and disc degeneration conferred the highest risk for recurrence. Conclusions: LBP risk prediction models and simplified risk scores have been developed and validated using data from general medical practice. This study also offers an opportunity for external validation and updating of the models by incorporating other risk predictors in other settings, especially in this era of precision medicine.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.359-364
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• 2006

Objectives: The object of this study is to assess the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease by using health risk appraisal of ischemic heart disease. Methods: The study population was taken from The 2001 Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey, and it consisted of 1,566 men and 1,984 women aged 30-59. We calculated 10-year risk using the risk function of ischemic heart disease as developed by Jee. The educational level and equivalized household income were dichotomized by a 12 years education period and the median income level. Occupation was dichotomized into manual/non-manual work. We stratified the population by age(10 years) and sex, and then we rated the risk differences according to socioeconomic factors by performing t-tests for each strata. Results: There were gradients of the predicted 10-year risk of ischemic heart disease with the educational level and the equivalized household income, and thet was an increasing tendency of risk differences with age. Manual workers didn't show significant risk difference from non-manual workers. Conclusions: There was definite relationship between low socioeconomic position and the predicted risk of ischemic heart disease in the future.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.525-528
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• 2013

River otter(Lutra lutra) are listed as endangered species and Natural monument in Korea, and this study examined the possibility of extinct of river otter in Hongchon river using with the application of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) technique. In Hongchon river areas population was estimated 9 individuals for the last 1999-2005 years and PVA analysis was done for the next 10 years using the average population of 9. Using the initial population the river otter was estimated 30% of extinct for the next 10 years. This estimation was quite low considering water pollution and construction of highways. Also PVA only used population size lacking in other life history information. Nonetheless river otter population can be in risk of extinction if the current construction of crossovers, cement bank are maintained. Long term information regarding life history needs essential.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.247-257
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• 2019

Objectives: The Korea Ministry of Environment regulates concentrations of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) through Atmosphere Environmental Standards to protect public health from HAPs. However, simply determining the exceedance of HAP concentrations has several limitations and more comprehensive assessment is required. In addition, integrated risk assessment is needed considering exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoor as well as indoor environments. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk by sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk for Koreans. Methods: In this study, we calculated time-weighted average exposure concentrations for benzene and $PM_{10}$ among preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly using residential time and concentrations for indoor (house, school or workplace, other), outdoor, and transport by the meta-analysis method. The risk assessments were conducted by excess cancer risk and disease death risk using 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in their house, workplace, or school, respectively. The more than 99% excess cancer risk for benzene exceed 1.0E-06 in all sub-populations and lifetime. The acute disease death risk for $PM_{10}$ for housewifes and workers for lifetime were 3.35E-04 and 3.18E-04, and chronic disease death risks were 2.84E-03 and 2.70E-03, respectively. Conclusions: The risk of benzene and $PM_{10}$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewifes and workers were assessed. Benzene showed risky results for this study. All disease death risks of $PM_{10}$ were higher than 1.0E-04 and showed different risks by sub-population. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment to benzene and $PM_{10}$.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.2519-2522
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• 2012

Objective: Data from a recent genome-wide association studiesy of gastric cancer (GC) and oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Chinese living in the Taihang Mountains of north-central China suggest that 1q22 and 10q23 are susceptibility-associated regions for GC. However, this has not been confirmed in southern Chinese populations. The aim of this study was to investigate whether these polymorphisms at 1q22 and 10q23 are associated with the risk of GC in a southern Chinese population. Methods: We selected seven top significant associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 1q22 and 10q23 and conducted a population-based case-control study in a southern Chinese population. Genotypes were determined using MassARRAYTM system (Sequenome, San Diego, CA). Results: Two SNPs at 1q22, rs4072037 and rs4460629, were significantly associated with a reduced risk of GC, best fitting the dominant genetic model. Logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex showed that rs4072037 AG and GG (OR=0.64, P=0.017, compared with AA) and rs4460629 CT and TT (OR=0.54, P=0.0016, compared with TT) significantly reduced the risk of GC. However, no significant results for the five SNPs at 10q23 were obtained in this study. Conclusion: These outcomes indicate that 1q22 is associated with GC susceptibility in this southern Chinese population, while an association for the locus at 10q23 was not confirmed.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.444-453
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• 2014

Inequality of environmental impact is forecast to deepen due to the damage of environmental risk by the interaction between environmental and social inequalities causing more harms to environmentally vulnerable population. This study assessed the integrated cumulative impact of Seoul using Environmental Health Screening Tool developed by Environmental Protection Agency of California. In order to screen vulnerable area to environmental health, 10 indexes have been selected according to the environmental burden of exposure to environment and public health effects, population characteristics of sensitive populations and socio-economic factors. As a result of assessment conducted on cumulative impact of Seoul for years 2009~2011 through Environmental Health Screening Tool, risk factor for districts of Gangseo and Gangnam of Seoul showed high - Gangseo area indicated high risk factor both in environmental burden and population characteristics, while Gangnam area appeared high in environmental burden. The result of survey will be able to suggest scientific basis to push through fair and effective environmental policy in consideration of environment vulnerable population.

• Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.43-48
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• 2010

Animal disease surveillance system, defined as the continuous investigation of a given population to detect the occurrence of disease or infection for control purposes, has been key roles to assess the health status of an animal population and, more recently, in international trade of animal and animal products with regard to risk assessment. Especially, for a system aiming to determine whether or not a disease is present in a population sensitivity of the system should be maintained high enough not to miss an infected animal. Therefore, when planning the implementation of surveillance system a number of factors that affecting surveillance sensitivity should be taken into account. Of these parameters sample size is of important, and different approaches are used to calculate sample size, usually depending on the objective of surveillance systems. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of the current national serological surveillance programs for four selected bovine diseases assuming a specified sampling plan, to examine factors affecting the probability of detection, and to provide sample sizes required for achieving surveillance goal of detecting at least an infection in a given population. Our results showed that, for example, detecting low level of prevalence (0.2% for bovine tuberculosis) requires selection of all animals per typical Korean cattle farm (n = 17), and thus risk-based target surveillance for high risk groups can be an alternative strategy to increase sensitivity while not increasing overall sampling efforts. The minimum sample size required for detecting at least one positive animal was sharply increased as the disease prevalence is low. More importantly, high reliability of prevalence estimation was expected with increased sampling fraction even when zero-infected animal was identified. The effect of sample size is also discussed in terms of the maximum prevalence when zero-infected animals were identified and on the probability of failure to detect an infection. We suggest that for many serological surveillance systems, diagnostic performance of the testing method, sample size, prevalence, population size, and statistical confidence need to be considered to correctly interpret results of the system.

• Biomolecules & Therapeutics
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.603-615
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• 2022

Assessing the health of international migrants is crucial in the Republic of Korea, Asia, and even worldwide. We compared the risk factors for non-communicable diseases among Asian migrants in Korea and the Korean population. This cross-sectional (2015) and longitudinal (2009-2015) observational study comprised a population-wide analysis spanning 2009 to 2015. Asian migrants (n=987,214) in Korea and Korean nationals (n=1,693,281) aged ≥20 were included. The Asian migrants were classified as Chinese, Japanese, Filipino, Vietnamese, and other. The prevalence of risk factors for non-communicable diseases (current smoking, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension) were analyzed. Regarding the age-adjusted prevalence, direct age standardization was conducted separately by sex using 10-year age bands; the World Standard Population was used as the standard population. Among the participants aged ≥20, the age-adjusted prevalence of current smoking was higher among Chinese and other Asian migrant men than among Korean men and women (p<0.001 and p<0.001, respectively). The age-adjusted prevalence of obesity was higher among Chinese, Filipino, and other Asian migrant women than in Korean women (p<0.001, p=0.002, and p<0.001, respectively). Among the participants aged 20-49, the age-adjusted prevalence of diabetes mellitus and hypertension was higher in Filipino migrant women than in Korean women (p=0.009 and p<0.001, respectively). Current rates of smoking and obesity were worse among Asian migrants of specific nationalities than among native Koreans. The health inequalities among Filipino migrant women in Korea, especially those aged 20-49, should be addressed.

• Korean Journal of Veterinary Service
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.81-88
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• 2003

A cross-sectional epidemiological study using a multistage sampling strategy in slaughter cattle in Mymensingh, Bangladesh was conducted during September 2001 to April 2002 to study distributions and risk factors of specific pulmonary lesions and diseases. The pulmonary lesions and diseases were diagnosed on the basis of macroscopic and microscopic pathological and parasitological findings. The frequency distribution of pulmonary lesions and diseases in slaughter cattle was found to vary among categories of the study variables. The risk factors identified on statistical basis were male cattle and ${\leq}3$ years old cattle and summer in congestion, slightly thin physical condition and summer season in pulmonary emphysema, slightly thin physical condition in parasitic bronchitis as well as female cattle, autumn and rainy seasons in pulmonary hydatidosis. The population impact and etiologic significance of summer season on pulmonary congestion and emphysema was more important than that of adult male cattle. The population impact and etiologic significance of autumn season on pulmonary hydatidosis was more important than that of female cattle during rainy season. Population impact of slightly thin cattle on parasitic bronchitis was poor.