The purpose of this study is to examine measures to improve government's supply oriented housing policy in population declining cities. For this purpose, system dynamics simulation method was used to build urban-housing model and different sets of housing policies were tested to see their impact on local housing problems. Simulation result shows that there is no best set of housing policies that can solve all housing problems in population declining cities. It also indicates that housing policy that solve one type of problems can worsen other type of problems. Housing policy that increases population size has negative effect of housing oversupply. It also increases proportion of old houses in population declining cities. However, housing policy that makes city younger with newer houses tends to increase housing shortage and housing price. So, policy choice needs to be made with clear understanding of trade off between different policies. The result also shows it is difficult to expect a full scale effect of housing policy on local housing problems unless it is executed with regional economic development policy because local housing problems are so closely related with local economic problem in population declining local cities.
This study is an empiriacl analysis of effects of government intervention on the health care delivery system in Korea. The purposes of this study are to find out the effects of government intervention on the per capita national health expenditure(per capita NHE), crude mortality rate(CMR), and institutional efficiency. Here, the institutional efficiency is defined as a formula shown below: log$\frac{100-curde mortality rate }{per capita NHE}$$\times$100. The formula indicates that the instiutional efficiency increases if the CMR and/or per capita NHE goes down. In the meantime the government intervention is measured by six independent variables: I) the degree of social developments, ii) the numberr of physicians per 100, 000 population, iii) the proportion of specialists among the total physicians, iv) the proportion of public expenditure among the NHE, v) the proportion of public beds to the total number of beds, vi) the proportion of physicians working at the public sector to the total number of physicians. In the above six independent variables iv), v) and vi) are the ones that reflect the degree of government intervention. In actual calculation, the two independent variables v) and vi) are integrated into a new variable based on one to one correspondence. The materials used are the time-series data from 1970 through 1990 in Korea. A path analysis and the time-series regression analysis were adopted to estimate and examine the causal relationship between variables involved. And decomposition of the effect of causal relationship is made to find net effect, direct and indirect effect. The major findings are as follows; 1. The effect of public expenditure, number of physicians per 100, 000 population, the proportion of specialists among the total physicians and social development shows a positive relationship with per capita NHE. Only if the government intervention would be counted, the effects of the number of physicians and the proportion of specialists succeed in containing per capita NHE. 2. In additionn to the above four variables, one additional variable, per capita NHE, was also responsible for the reduction of CMR. The factor of social development found to be the most potent predictor of the CMR reduction. However, the CMR reduction due to government intervention was negligible. 3. Meanwhile, the above four variables were found to was have negative effects on the institutional efficiency. The reverse is true when the government intervention is counted. For example, the number of physicians and the proportion of specialists have played a positive role in raising institutional efficiency via goverment intervention. This comes from the factual effect that the increment of institutional efficiency via the reduction of per capita NHE is bigger than via the reduction of CMR.
Vast volumes of studies of the medical and public health aspects of fertility and family planning have been published by the various institutes of health related research and university scholars in Korea. None of them, however, have dealed with the population problems associated with biologically and mentally handicapped people. It must be emphasized that the purpose of Korea's population policy should be to improve the quality of the population rather than to decrease its rate of increase. In this spirit, the first report of this study is to identify problems related with mentally and physically less fitted population, and to attempt to offer the possible solutions to the health planners and policy-makers. Several nation-wide surveys of the handicapped people in Korea have been compared. Each survey shows a wide range of difference in the prevalence of the handicaps(see Table 13). In this study, the data on the handicaps are collected by two independent system ; one by the nation-wide survey and the other by the reporting system existing at the Seoul National University Demonstration Health Project. The Chandrasekar-Deming technique was used to estimate the total number of handicaps. The estimates are summarized in the tables 8, 9 and 10. Estimate of total number of handicapped people in Korea is 601, 400 with the prevalence rate of 16.1 per thousand persons. Even if taking a number of conditions which may result in a biased estimate of the total number of the handicaps into consideration, the proportion of handicapped people in Korea has increased in the past two decade as the result of the rapid decline in fertility and childhood mortality, which consequently prolonged life expectancy of persons with congenital or acquired impediment. An increase in the proportion of handicapped people will eventually bring about serious problems of social welfare, medical care, and population qualities from various aspects including eugenics. To tackle the problem, there must be an increased emphasis on the prevention of handicaps from the government and private sector. Based on the amount and quality of data, and from the practical point of view, this study prepared a set of recommendations for the government to strengthen its programs of the preventive activities during the prenatal period and early childhood, early finding from routine examinations, and proper social and medical rehabilitation.
Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
/
v.18
no.5
/
pp.615-623
/
2011
Several methods are used in interval estimation for binomial proportion; however the coverage probabilities of most confidence intervals depart from the confidence level when the binomial population proportion closes to 0 or 1 due to the extreme value. Vollset (1993), Agresti and Coull (1998), Newcombe (1998), and Brown et al. (2001) suggested methods to adjust the extreme value. This paper discusses the influence of extreme value in a binomial confidence interval through the numerical comparison of 6 confidence intervals.
The study purpose was to find which factors affect selection of hospital network types. This study used the 1998 American Hospital Association Annual Survey Database from Health Forum. Among these U.S. hospitals, the researcher selected hospitals located in Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Therefore the final observation cases for analysis are 1,971 Metropolitan Statistical Area hospitals in the United States. To identify significant variables influencing hospital network types, the study used proportional odds logistics regression model on population size, Health Maintenance Organization penetration rate, and market competition rate of area including a hospital, types of hospital ownership, hospital bed size, proportion of Medicare patients and Medicaid patients in total hospital patients, and occupancy rate. Contrary to conventional wisdom, selection of hospital network types was influenced by population size of area which a hospital located, types of ownership, hospital bed size, and proportion of medicare patients rather than Health Maintenance Organization penetration. Population size 1,000,000-2,499,999 had the highest probability of selecting type IV (clinical-vertical integration) from an independent hospital, and a religious group owned hospitals and for-profit owned hospitals had the highest probability of selecting Type IV (clinical-vertical integration) from an independent hospital. A bed size had positive relation on selecting Type IV (clinical-vertical integration) from an independent hospital. Unlikely general belief that the selecting types of hospital network was determined by the change of health insurance policy such as Health Maintenance Organizations and Preferred Provider Organizations, the types of hospital network were influenced by community characteristics such as population size, and hospital characteristics.
This study aims at identifying the recent change in marriage behaviors in Korea. The data used here is the vital statistics compiled from the vital registration system of which registration form is put on one from together with the civil registration form. According to the results of this analysis, since 1970 the number of marriages has steadily increased from about 300, 000 in the former of 1970s to about 400, 000 in the latter of 1980s, appproximately coincided with the change in population size at the marriageable age span. The few exceptions that can be seen in the 1970s seem to result from the impact of social upheavals during 1950s; since the birth cohorts affected by the low fertility during the Korean war and the post-war baby-boom generations chracterized by the high fertility entered the marriage market in the 1970s. However, the marriage rate shows a little increase from around 7 in the former of 1970s to around 9 in the latter of 1980s, indicating that the marriage prevalence has been more or less inconsiderably changed during this period. It is also found that the proportion of remarriage to the total marriages has increased to around 10 per cent in 1989, while decreasing that of first marriage. This fact can be attributable to the higher prevalence of divorces and the collapsing of the Confucianism ethic which contributed to expediting the remarriage of widows. Although this proportion is insignificant compared with that of the of more developed countries, it is not difficult to say that the proportion of remarriages will continue to increase in future. The age first at first marriage(AFM) which directly affects the span exposed to the risks pregnancy has increased to the age about 28 for male and about 25 for female in recent years. However, big difference in AFM between urban and rural areas has narrowed, resultant from the increasing involuntary postponement of marriage of rural young population who have met difficulties in seeking their bride or bridegroom in rural areas characterized by the heavy out-migration of young, particularly female, population. The present study shows the reverse relationship between AFM and educational attainment; i.e, the higher the educational attainment the lower the AFM. The conditions which are taken into considerations were the class and the family in the past time but which are, educational attainment, job and personal characteristics. With regard to the age condition, in recent years the male prefers the female younger than himself on the average by 3 years and vice versa, which is reduced form 4-5 years in beginning of 1970s. The age difference bride and bridegroom tends to decrease with the educational attainment increase. This may be attributable to the fact that the persons with the higher educational attainment prefer the love marriage and hence are more likely to choose their counterparts in the about same age. The education condition is characterized by the bridegroom having the higher educational level than bride. It is also significant to note that the proportion of love marriage has increased, whereas that of traditional arranged marriage has decreased. This is true in the urban areas than the rural areas, indicating that rights as well as responsibilities for marriage have been handed over the young population from their parents. In conclusion, the change in the marriage behaviors in Korea are characterized by increasing tendency for the postponement of first marriage, higher prevalences of divorces and a result remarriages, increase of love marriages, narrowing age difference between bride and bridegroom, etc. which are the main results of rapid industrization, increase in educational and economic activity opportunities and change in the ideals of marriages during the past decades. These phenomena prevailing in Korean society would affect not only the family structure that will become less proliferiated but the population size and structure. The most important is that the changes in marriage behaviors of Koreans and their impact on the society with respect to norms, values, morals, of individual and family in the social aspect, change in population size and structure in the demograpic aspects, and economic development in the economic aspects should be integrated into the plannings towards to the future.
1. We have observed the frequency , geographi variation and microgeographic variation of the elytral pattern types and the elytral edge of the population of Lady-beetle, Harmonia axyridis PALLACE, collected in Jinju and other 6 localitites in South Korea. 2. the number of specimen collected were 6,625 in which Succinea was 90.32% : Axyridis ; 0.74% : Spectabilis , 3.82% ; and Conspicua 5.07%. 3. We have found that 92.26% of all specimens have elytral edge. 4. There were some differences in the compositional of the elytral pattern types and elytral edge to the population among the Western seaside , inland and southern seaside of South Korea , whereas as great difference was in the compositional proportion tot he population of Spectabilis between the western and southern seaside . There was also a gret difference of the elytral edge between the inland and southern seaside. 5. A micro-geographic variation was observed in Jinju , located on southern area of South Korea. In the samples collected from the pine trees at Jinju area the Succinea occupied 73.25%, and 69.61 % were found to be provided with elytral edge, while in the general population 92.46% of specimen were Succinea and 98.35% were found to have elytral edge.
The Sejong Metropolitan Autonomous City is launched on July 1, 2012, and Phase 1 of the Multifunctional Administrative City Construction Project was completed in late 2015. Therefore, it is necessary through the results of the first phase of the project to check whether Sejong city can achieve the target population and number of households by 2030 and to use to determine the number and type of housing to be supplied next. Based on the presented results of the Phase 1 project period, this study estimate the population and number of households in 2030. For forecasting future population the population growth rate seen in the future of Sejong City's population forecast published by the National Statistical Office and the performance against plans Step 1 were used for forecasting future population. The results of analysis showed that the Multi-functional Administrative City is difficult to attract five hundred thousand people and two hundred thousand houses. In the analysis of households by type The Multi-functional Administrative City is The large proportion of 3-4 person households and high-income earners and Homeowners. But it increased the proportion of households with 1-2 people and rent house of the city grows in size and it is likely to change the level of income. Therefore, it is determined that there is a need to reflect these elements in next housing.
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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v.14
no.2
/
pp.275-278
/
2003
In this paper, a simple and obvious procedure is presented that allows to estimate $\pi$, the population proportion of a sensitive group. Suggested procedure is combined procedure of direct question and randomized response technique. It is found that the proposed procedure is more efficient than Warner's(1965).
The rural problems which we are facing start from the extremely small sized population and the skewed population structure by age and sex. Thus we analyzed the change of the rural population. And we analyzed the recent return migration to the rural areas by comparing the recent in-migrants with out-migrants to rural areas. And by analyzing the rural village survey data which was to show the current characteristics of rural population, we found out the effects of the in-migrants to the rural areas and predicted the futures of rural villages by characteristics. The changes of rural population composition by age was very clear. As the out-migrants towards cities carried on, the population composition of young children aged 0~4 years was low and the aged became thick. The proportion of the population aged 0~4 years was 45.1% of the total population in 1970 and dropped down to 20.4% in 1995, which is predicted to become under 20% from now on. In the same period(1970~1995), the population aged 65 years and over rose from 4.2% to 11.9%. In 1960, before industrialization, the proportion of the population aged 0~4 years in rural areas was higher than that of cities. As the rural young population continuously moves to cities it became lower than that in urban areas from 1975 and the gap grew till 1990. But the proportion of rural population aged 0~4 years in 1995 became 6.2% and the gap reduced. We can say this is the change of the characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants in the rural areas. Also considering the composition of the population by age group moving from urban to rural area in the late 1980s, 51.8% of the total migrants concentrates upon age group of 20~34 years and these people's educational level was higher than that of out-migrants to urban areas. This fact predicted the changes of the rural population, and the results will turn out as a change in the rural society. However, after comparing the population structure between the pure rural village of Boeun-gun and suburban village of Paju-gun which was agriculture centered village but recently changed rapidly, the recent change of the rural population structure which the in-migrants to rural areas becomes younger is just a phenomenon in the suburban rural areas, not the change of the total rural areas in general. From the characteristics of the population structure of rural village from the field survey on these villages, we can see that in the pure rural villages without any effects from cities the regidents are highly aged, while industrialization and urbanization are making a progress in suburban villages. Therefore, the recent partial change of the rural population structure and the change of characteristics of the in-migrants toward rural areas is effecting and being effected by the population change of areas like suburban rural villages. Although there are return migrants to rural areas to change their jobs into agriculture, this is too minor to appear as a statistic effect.
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