• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• 제46권3호
• /
• pp.83-97
• /
• 2021

Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제4권5호
• /
• pp.527-555
• /
• 2013

This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.

• Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
• /
• 제14권2호
• /
• pp.71-80
• /
• 2011

The growth of the aging population in Korea will challenge health and social services. As Korean society changes, the U.S. models of end-of-life care and geriatric care for frail older adults may have increasing relevance for the Korean healthcare system. This article reviews three U.S. models of care for frail older adults: hospice and palliative care, the Program for All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE), and the transitional care model. We describe the strengths and limitations of each model and discuss ways in which these models could be adapted for the Korean healthcare system.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제37권1호
• /
• pp.31.2-31.2
• /
• 2012

We present the Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) models for spectroscopic and photometric evolutions of simple and composite stellar populations. The models are based on the most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale stellar evolutionary tracks and BaSel 3.1 flux libraries, and provide integrated spectroscopic quantities of Lick/IDS system including high-order Balmer absorption-lines. Special care has been taken to incorporate the systematic variation of horizontal branch (HB) morphology as functions of metallicity, age, alpha-element mixture, and helium abundance of simple stellar populations. Our models for normal-helium stellar populations indicate that the realistic modeling of HB and alpha-element brings about 5 Gyr and 0.1 dex differences in age and metallicity estimations, respectively, compared to those without these effects. The HB effect does not depend on the specific choice of stellar libraries and alpha-element enhancements, and this effect is non-negligible even in the metal sensitive absorption indices, such as Mg2 and Mg b. Comparison of the models to observations reveals that the HB and alpha-element effects are critical in understanding otherwise inexplicable phenomena found in globular cluster systems in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, including the observed bimodality of the line strengths of globular clusters in massive galaxies. In addition, we found that helium-enhanced stellar populations, which are the major sources of extreme HB stars, bring about increased FUV, NUV fluxes, and thus the model colors of those filters become extremely blue. Age dating based on the YEPS model with normal-helium stellar populations reveals that the evidence for 'downsizing' of elliptical galaxies is found not only in the local field but also in Coma cluster, and that the mean age of elliptical galaxies in Coma cluster is about 1.4 Gyr younger than the mean age of those in the local field. We also find that our models with helium-enhanced subpopulations can naturally reproduce the strong UV-upturns observed in giant elliptical galaxies assuming an age similar to that of old GCs in the Milky Way.

• 수산해양기술연구
• /
• 제49권1호
• /
• pp.18-28
• /
• 2013

It was compared the estimated parameters by the surplus production from three different models, i.e., three types (Schaefer, Gulland, and Schnute) of the traditional surplus production models, a stock production model incorporating covariates (ASPIC) model and a maximum entropy (ME) model. We also evaluated the performance of models in the estimation of their parameters. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of small yellow croaker (Pseudosciaena polyactis) in Korean waters ranged from 35,061 metric tons (mt) by Gulland model to 44,844mt by ME model, and fishing effort at MSY ($f_{MSY}$) ranged from 262,188hauls by Schnute model to 355,200hauls by ME model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) for small yellow croaker was obtained from the Gulland surplus production model, while the highest RMSE was from Schnute model. However, the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was from the ME model, but the ASPIC model yielded the lowest coefficient. On the other hand, the MSY of Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon) ranged from 16,880 mt by ASPIC model to 25,373mt by ME model, and $f_{MSY}$, from 94,580hauls by ASPIC model to 225,490hauls by Schnute model. In this case, both the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were obtained from the ME model, which showed relatively better fits of data to the model, indicating that the ME model is statistically more stable and robust than other models. Moreover, the ME model could provide additional ecologically useful parameters such as, biomass at MSY ($B_{MSY}$), carrying capacity of the population (K), catchability coefficient (q) and the intrinsic rate of population growth (r).

• 천문학회지
• /
• 제45권2호
• /
• pp.39-48
• /
• 2012

We investigate non-LTE effects on the $H_3^+$ level populations to help the analysis of the observed 2 and 3.5 micron $H_3^+$ emissions from the Jovian ionosphere. We begin by constructing a simple three-level model, in order to compute the intensity ratio of the R(3,4) line in the hot band to the Q(1,0) line in the fundamental band, which have been observed in the Jovian auroral regions. We find that non-LTE effects produce only small changes in the intensity ratios for ambient $H_2$ densities less than or equal to $5{\times}10^{11}cm^{-3}$. We then construct two comprehensive models by including all the collisional and radiative transitions between pairs of more than a thousand known $H_3^+$ rovibrational levels with energies less than 10000 $cm^{-1}$. By employing these models, we find that the intensity ratios of the lines in the hot and fundamental bands are affected greatly by non-LTE effects, but the details depend sensitively on the number of collisional and radiative transitions included in the models. Non-LTE effects on the rovibrational population become evident at about the same ambient $H_2$ densities in the comprehensive models as in the three-level model. However, the models show that rotational temperatures derived from the intensities of rotational lines in the ${\nu}_2$ and $2{\nu}_2$ bands may differ significantly from the ambie temperatures in the non-LTE regime. We find that significant non-LTE effects appear near and above the $H_3^+$ peak, and that the kinetic temperatures in the Jovian thermospheric temperatures derived from the observed line ratios in the 2 and 3.5 micron $H_3^+$ emissions are highly model dependent.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제30권3호
• /
• pp.145-152
• /
• 2013

Rotation-powered pulsars are excellent laboratories for studying particle acceleration as well as fundamental physics of strong gravity, strong magnetic fields and relativity. Particle acceleration and high-energy emission from the polar caps is expected to occur in connection with electron-positron pair cascades. I will review acceleration and gamma-ray emission from the pulsar polar cap and associated slot gap. Predictions of these models can be tested with the data set on pulsars collected by the Large Area Telescope on the Fermi Gamma-Ray Telescope over the last four years, using both detailed light curve fitting, population synthesis and phase-resolved spectroscopy.

• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제24권1호
• /
• pp.115-125
• /
• 2011

사망률 예측모형과 생명표 작성방법에 기반을 둔 예측평균수명 작성은 미래의 사망수준을 평가하는 효과적인 방법이 된다. 2006년 통계청에서 장래인구추계 작성 시 예측평균수명을 작성하였으나, 2006년 이후 현재까지 실제평균수명과 적지 않은 차이를 보이고 있어 평균수명의 증가속도를 반영하지 못하고 있다. 이의 원인으로는 전망치에 대한판단, 사망률 예측모형의 선택과 사용 등이 이유가 될 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 사망률 예측모형의 선택관점에서 이 문제를 살펴보고자 한다. 2011년 장래인구추계 작성을 앞둔 상황에서 오류의 반복을 피하기 위해서는 사망률 예측모형에 대한 특성 및 적용가능성에 대한 충분한 검토가 이루어진 후 적절한 모형을 선택해야 할 것이다. 사망률 예측모형은 주로 사용되고 있는 LC(Lee와 Carter) 모형과 이의 개선모형들, 사망확률 확장모형인 HP8(Heligman과 Pollard 8 parameters) 모형 등 모두 5개의 모형을 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과를 바탕으로 5개의 모형별로 2030까지의 남녀별 예측평균수명을 작성하여 제시하였고, 이를 통계청에서 제공하는 예측평균수명과 비교하였다. 5개의 모형에 의해 작성된 2030년까지의 새로운 예측평균수명은 통계청의 결과보다 높게 나타나 실제평균수명의 변화를 상대적으로 잘 반영하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• 제35권3호
• /
• pp.157-175
• /
• 2022

This paper highlights the minimization of drag and lift coefficient of different types both side setback tall buildings by the multi-objective optimization technique. The present study employed 48 number both-side setback models for simulation purposes. This study adopted three variables to find the two objective functions. Setback height and setback distances from the top of building models are considered variables. The setback distances are considered between 10-40% and setback heights are within 6-72% from the top of the models. Another variable is wind angles, which are considered from 0° to 90° at 15° intervals according to the symmetry of the building models. Drag and lift coefficients according to the different wind angles are employed as the objective functions. Therefore 336 number population data are used for each objective function. Optimum models are compared with computational simulation and found good agreements of drag and lift coefficient. The design wind angle variation of the optimum models is considered for drag and lift study on the main square model. The drag and lift data of the square model are compared with the optimum models and found the optimized models are minimizing the 45-65% drag and 25-60% lift compared to the initial square model.

• 보건행정학회지
• /
• 제28권4호
• /
• pp.378-391
• /
• 2018

Background: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. Methods: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. Results: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show 'healthy ageing' phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of -1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%-1.80% in healthcare expenditure. Conclusion: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, 'healthy ageing effect' suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.