• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population estimation

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A Study of Parameter Estimation with the Prior-Information by Using the Multiple Stratification (사전정보가 있는 경우 다중층화를 이용한 모수추정연구)

  • 이해용
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2003
  • In sampling survey, prior-information about population has been generally ignored to estimate parameters. But if there is some believable prior-information about population, it is very useful to get more efficiency estimators by using the prior-information. This paper shows how to estimate the parameter, to evaluate the variance of the estimator, and to un-biasness of the estimator by using multiple stratification with prior-information about survey population. The proposed method is illustrated with a set of hypothetical data. The results show that the proposed estimator is very efficiency and strongly recommendable.

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Estimation of Survivorship and Population Dynamics of White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons) in Junam Reservoir, Korea (주남저수지에 도래하는 쇠기러기의 PVA에 의한 생존확률 추정 연구)

  • Park, Ji-Eun;Lee, Sang-Don
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.293-299
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    • 2009
  • Wintering migratory species of white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) are common visitor in South Korea, and this study examined the survivorship of white-fronted geese in the Junam Reservoir with the application of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) technique. In Junam PVA analysis was done for the next 50 years using factors of breeding population, sex ratios, survivorship in the VORTEX program. As a result white-fronted geese will reach to carrying capacity within 40 years, and population will reach to carrying capacity later when it becomes smaller. Also with a large initial population white-fronted geese will reach to carrying capacity earlier. In conclusion, for the next 50 years the white-fronted geese are expected to a long-term survival with stable condition with survivorship (0.03) and extinction rate (0.0).

최근 초혼연령의 변화에 관한 소고

  • 황대희;고갑석
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 1983
  • In order for handicapped people to maintain better humane life, it is necessary to get statistics of them in developing appropriate national policy. However, it is very difficult to obtain baseline statistics on regular or occasional basis. It's reason is mainly attributed to attitudes of their family's tendency to conceal any existence of such memeber in the household. As a result, the statis-tics on the handicapped population is very inaccurate and under satisfaction. We must produce such statistics periodically in time and with accuracy. Thus, this study porposes five methods which, we believe, can produce reliable statistics of thehandcapped population : 1) vitalization through enforcement of handicapped information into the registration system, 2) inclusion in population census of items related to handicapped information, 3) improvement of the physically handicapped population survey scheme, 4) utilization of hospital patients' records for development of the statistics, and 5) an estimation through the labor force survey.

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A Comparative Study on the Spatial Statistical Models for the Estimation of Population Distribution

  • Oh, Doo-Ri;Hwang, Chul Sue
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to accurately estimate population distribution more specifically than administrative unites using a RK (Regression-Kriging) model. The RK model is the areal interpolation technique that involves linear regression and the Kriging model. In order to estimate a population’s distribution using a sample region, four different models were used, namely; a regression model, RK model, OK (Ordinary Kriging) model and CK (Co-Kriging) model. The results were then compared with each other. Evaluation of the accuracy and validity of evaluation analysis results were the basis RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), G statistic and correlation coefficient (ρ). In the sample regions, every statistic value of the RK model showed better results than other models. The results of this comparative study will be useful to estimate a population distribution of the metropolitan areas with high population density

AN EMPIRICAL BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF MONTHLY LEVEL AND CHANGE IN TWO-WAY BALANCED ROTATION SAMPLING

  • Lee, Seung-Chun;Park, Yoo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.175-191
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    • 2003
  • An empirical Bayesian approach is discussed for estimation of characteristics from the two-way balanced rotation sampling design which includes U.S. Current Population Survey and Canadian Labor Force Survey as special cases. An empirical Bayesian estimator is derived for monthly effect under presence of two types of biases and correlations It is shown that the marginal distribution of observation provides more general correlation structure than that frequentist has assumed. Consistent estimators are derived for hyper-parameters in Normal priors.

Small Area Estimation to Unemployment Statistics in Korea (시군 실업통계 작성을 위한 소지역 추정모형)

  • Kim, Jin;Kim, Jae-Kwang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.337-347
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    • 2010
  • Most sample surveys are designed to estimate reliable statistics for the whole population and for some large subpopulations. However, the research for small area estimation have been increasing in recent years because users demand to reliable estimates for smaller subpopulations like small areas or specific domains. In Korea, the Economically Active Population Survey(EAPS) is the main household survey that produces monthly unemployment rates for nationwide and 16 large areas (7 metropolitans and 9 provinces) in Korea. For county level estimation, direct estimators are not reliable because of the small sample sizes. We consider small area estimation of the county level unemployment ratesfrom the sample observations in EAPS. To do this, we use an area level model to "borrow strength" from the auxiliary information, such as administrative data and census data. The proposed method is based on the assumption of normality of the model errors in the area level model. The proposed method is compared with the other alternatives in terms of the estimated mean squared errors.

A Quantitative Method for Estimating Damages in Fishery Production due to Artificial Environmental Deterioration in the Tidal Flat Fishing Grounds (천해어장에서 인위적 환경훼손에 의한 어업생산 감소량 추정방법)

  • PARK Joo Seok;KANG Yong Joo;ZHANG Chang Ik
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.402-408
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    • 2003
  • A quantitative method was suggested for estimating damages in fishery production due to the diffusion and deposition of suspended silt and clay by various construction processes in tidal flat fishing grounds. Marine populations are maintained through the process of spawning, growth, recruitment, natural death and death by fishing each year. All of the year classes of the population in a fishery ground could be affected when damages occur by human activities such as land filling or reclamation. The propose of this study is to calculate damages in terms of fishery production using a quantitative population dynamic method. If the maximum age in the population is $X_\lambda,$ the starting year of damage is $t_s,$ and the ending year of damage is $t_e,$ the number of year classes damaged is $t_{s-n\lambda}-t_e,$ Many year classes present in the year $t_s,$ and so if damages occur, they Influence all the year classes which are present in the population. Damaged year classes in year $t_e$ would still be in the population until the year $t_{e+n\lambda}$, where $n_{\lambda}$ is the oldest age class. If the expected yield of a year class is constant, the total yield from year classes in the fishing ground during the construction periods can be calculated as follows: $Y_\Phi=[(t_e-t_s+1)+n_c]{\cdot}Y_E+\sum\limits^{n_\lambda-n_c}_{l=1}\;\sum\limits^{n_\lambda-n_c}_{l=i}\;Y_{n_c+i}$ This method was applied for damage estimation in the production of Ruditapes philippinarum in a tidal flat fishing ground.

Estimation of Effective Population Size in the Sapsaree: A Korean Native Dog (Canis familiaris)

  • Alam, M.;Han, K.I.;Lee, D.H.;Ha, J.H.;Kim, J.J.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.25 no.8
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    • pp.1063-1072
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    • 2012
  • Effective population size ($N_e$) is an important measure to understand population structure and genetic variability in animal species. The objective of this study was to estimate $N_e$ in Sapsaree dogs using the information of rate of inbreeding and genomic data that were obtained from pedigree and the Illumina CanineSNP20 (20K) and CanineHD (170K) beadchips, respectively. Three SNP panels, i.e. Sap134 (20K), Sap60 (170K), and Sap183 (the combined panel from the 20K and 170K), were used to genotype 134, 60, and 183 animal samples, respectively. The $N_e$ estimates based on inbreeding rate ranged from 16 to 51 about five to 13 generations ago. With the use of SNP genotypes, two methods were applied for $N_e$ estimation, i.e. pair-wise $r^2$ values using a simple expectation of distance and $r^2$ values under a non-linear regression with respective distances assuming a finite population size. The average pair-wise $N_e$ estimates across generations using the pairs of SNPs that were located within 5 Mb in the Sap134, Sap60, and Sap183 panels, were 1,486, 1,025 and 1,293, respectively. Under the non-linear regression method, the average $N_e$ estimates were 1,601, 528, and 1,129 for the respective panels. Also, the point estimates of past $N_e$ at 5, 20, and 50 generations ago ranged between 64 to 75, 245 to 286, and 573 to 646, respectively, indicating a significant $N_e$ reduction in the last several generations. These results suggest a strong necessity for minimizing inbreeding through the application of genomic selection or other breeding strategies to increase $N_e$, so as to maintain genetic variation and to avoid future bottlenecks in the Sapsaree population.