• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population estimation

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Small Area Estimation of Unemployment Rate for the Economically Active Population Survey

  • Kim, Young-Won;Jo, Ran
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2004
  • In the Korean Economically Active Population Survey(EAPS), the sample sizes for small areas are typically too small to provide reliable estimators because the EAPS has been designed to produce unemployment statistics for large areas such as Metropolitan Cities and Province. In this study, we consider the synthetic and composite estimators for the unemployment rate of small areas, and apply them to real data on Choongbook province which is from the Korean EAPS of December 2000. The mean square errors of these estimators were estimated by the Jackknife method, and the efficiencies of small area estimators were evaluated in terms of the relative standard errors and the relative root mean square errors. As a result, the composite estimator is much more efficient than other estimators and it turns out that the composite estimator can produce the reliable estimates of the unemployment rate of small areas under the current EAPS system.

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A comparative study on the estimation methods for the potential yield in the Korean waters of the East Sea (한국 동해 생태계의 잠재생산량 추정방법에 관한 비교 연구)

  • LIM, Jung-Hyun;SEO, Young-Il;ZHANG, Chang-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.124-137
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    • 2018
  • Due to the decrease in coastal productivity and deterioration in the quality of ecosystem which result from the excessive overfishing of fisheries resources and the environmental pollution, fisheries resources in the Korean waters hit the dangerous level in respect of quantity and quality. In order to manage sustainable and effective fisheries resources, it is necessary to suggest the potential yield (PY) for clarifying available fisheries resources in the Korean waters. So far, however, there have been few studies on the estimation methods for PY in Korea. In addition, there have been no studies on the comparative analysis of the estimation methods and the substantial estimation methods for PY targeted for large marine ecosystem (LME) For the reasonable management of fisheries resources, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive study on the estimation methods for the PY which combines population dynamics and ecosystem dynamics. To reflect the research need, this study conducts a comparative analysis of estimation methods for the PY in the Korean waters of the East Sea to understand the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and suggests the estimation method which considered both population dynamics and ecosystem dynamics to supplement shortcomings of each method. In this study, the maximum entropy (ME) model of the holistic production method (HPM) is considered to be the most reasonable estimation method due to the high reliability of the estimated parameters. The results of this study are expected to be used as significant basic data to provide indicators and reference points for sustainable and reasonable management of fisheries resources.

Estimation of Esophageal Cancer Incidence in Tehran by Log-linear Method using Population-based Cancer Registry Data

  • Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza;Ahmadi-Jouibari, Toraj;Najafi, Farid;Mehrabi, Yadollah;Aghaei, Abbas
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.5367-5370
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    • 2013
  • Background: Having knowledge or estimation of cancer incidence is necessary for planning and implementation of any cancer prevention and control programs. Population-based registries provide valuable information to achieve these objectives but require extra techniques to estimate the incidence rate. The present study aimed to estimate the esophageal cancer incidence using a log-linear method based on Tehran population-based cancer registry data. Materials and Methods: New cases of esophageal cancer reported by three sources of pathology reports, medical records, and death certificates to Tehran Metropolitan Area Cancer Registry Center during 2002-2006 were entered into the study and the incidence rate was estimated based on log-linear models. We used Akaike statistics to select the best-fit model. Results: During 2002-2006, 1,458 new cases of esophageal cancer were reported by the mentioned sources to the population-based cancer registry. Based on the reported cases, cancer incidence was 4.5 per 100,000 population and this was estimated to be 10.5 per 100,000 by the log-linear method. Conclusions: Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that an estimated incidence for 2004 of 8.3 per 100,000 population could be a good benchmark for the incidence of esophageal cancer in the population of Tehran metropolis.

Estimation of Dietary Choline Intake of Korean by Gender, Age and Region (한국인의 성별, 연령별, 지역별 콜린 섭취 추정량)

  • Jeone Han Ok;Kim Cho-il;Lee Haene Shin;Chune Young-Jin
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.320-326
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to estimate dietary choline intake of Koreans according to gender, age and region by using the data on per capita food intake in 1998 and 2001 and the data on choline contents of foods customarily eaten by Koreans. Sixty-four and 97 kinds of food items were used for the estimation of choline intake in 1998 and 2001, respectively. And these corresponded to approximately $90\%$ of the total amount of food intake and energy intake. Based on these food items and choline content, per capita choline intake of Koreans was estimated to be 623.0 mg and 602.4 mg in 1998 and 2001 respectively , 687.2 mg and 659.1 mg in 1998 and 2001 for male, 560.2 mg and 551.0 mg in 1998 and 2001 for female. While the number of foods considered in estimation was higher in 2001 than 1998, choline intake was lower in 2001. The estimated per capita choline intake of male population was higher than that of female population by 108-127 mg, possibly due to the difference in total amount of food intake. The age group with the highest choline intake was different between 2 time points. Although adolescents of 13- 19 years showed the highest intake (712.0 mg) in 1998, mid-aged adults of 30-49 years showed the highest choline intake (662.2 mg) followed by adolescents (645.7 mg) in 2001. In regional comparison, choline intake of the rural population (588.7 mg and 588.3 mg in 1998 and 2001 respectively) was lower than that of population in small to medium-size cities (625.1 mg and 603.9 mg) or in metropolitan cities (637.7 mg and 602.8 mg). This result revealed that per capita choline intake of the Korean population falls within the adequate range with some differences by age, sex and residing area.

Confidence intervals for the COVID-19 neutralizing antibody retention rate in the Korean population

  • Apio, Catherine;Kamruzzaman, Md.;Park, Taesung
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.31.1-31.8
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    • 2020
  • The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has become a global pandemic. No specific therapeutic agents or vaccines for COVID-19 are available, though several antiviral drugs, are under investigation as treatment agents for COVID-19. The use of convalescent plasma transfusion that contain neutralizing antibodies for COVID-19 has become the major focus. This requires mass screening of populations for these antibodies. While several countries started reporting population based antibody rate, its simple point estimate may be misinterpreted without proper estimation of standard error and confidence intervals. In this paper, we review the importance of antibody studies and present the 95% confidence intervals COVID-19 antibody rate for the Korean population using two recently performed antibody tests in Korea. Due to the sparsity of data, the estimation of confidence interval is a big challenge. Thus, we consider several confidence intervals using Asymptotic, Exact and Bayesian estimation methods. In this article, we found that the Wald method gives the narrowest interval among all Asymptotic methods whereas mid p-value gives the narrowest among all Exact methods and Jeffrey's method gives the narrowest from Bayesian method. The most conservative 95% confidence interval estimation shows that as of 00:00 on September 15, 2020, at least 32,602 people were infected but not confirmed in Korea.

Asymptotic Distribution in Estimating a Population Size

  • Choi, Ki-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.313-318
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    • 1999
  • Suppose that there is a population of hidden objects of which the total number N is unknown. From such data, we derive an asymptotic distribution.

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Comparison of Estimation Methods in NONMEM 7.2: Application to a Real Clinical Trial Dataset (실제 임상 데이터를 이용한 NONMEM 7.2에 도입된 추정법 비교 연구)

  • Yun, Hwi-Yeol;Chae, Jung-Woo;Kwon, Kwang-Il
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.137-141
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: This study compared the performance of new NONMEM estimation methods using a population analysis dataset collected from a clinical study that consisted of 40 individuals and 567 observations after a single oral dose of glimepiride. Method: The NONMEM 7.2 estimation methods tested were first-order conditional estimation with interaction (FOCEI), importance sampling (IMP), importance sampling assisted by mode a posteriori (IMPMAP), iterative two stage (ITS), stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM), and Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian (BAYES) using a two-compartment open model. Results: The parameters estimated by IMP, IMPMAP, ITS, SAEM, and BAYES were similar to those estimated using FOCEI, and the objective function value (OFV) for diagnosing the model criteria was significantly decreased in FOCEI, IMPMAP, SAEM, and BAYES in comparison with IMP. Parameter precision in terms of the estimated standard error was estimated precisely with FOCEI, IMP, IMPMAP, and BAYES. The run time for the model analysis was shortest with BAYES. Conclusion: In conclusion, the new estimation methods in NONMEM 7.2 performed similarly in terms of parameter estimation, but the results in terms of parameter precision and model run times using BAYES were most suitable for analyzing this dataset.

Efficient Method to Estimate the Number of Exposed People to Industrial Noise Using the GIS and Three Dimensional Noise Mapping - Focusing on the Industrial Noise - (GIS와 3차원 소음지도를 이용한 소음 노출 인구 산정 방법에 관한 연구 - 공장 소음을 중심으로 -)

  • Ko, Joon-Hee;Chun, Hyung-Joon;Chang, Seo-Il
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.17 no.6 s.123
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    • pp.491-497
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    • 2007
  • Reasonably accurate estimation of the exposed population to the distinct levels of noise is essential to the efficient management of urban environmental noise. This study proposes a method of calculating the number of exposed people to industrial noise by using GIS tool and noise mapping. The exposed population of noise based on estimation of the number of people that lived in each building in urban area is compared with the one based on density of population. This study suggests the five step method that consists of gathering the fundamental data, extracting the property from the digital map, noise mapping based on the three dimensional topography, estimating population that lives in each building, merging the various results with GIS tool, and estimating exposed population to industrial noise through analyzing the noise map with GIS tools.