• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2021

This study aims to test the relationship between the change in population size and population composition and crime changes. The analytical model includes variables representing changes in population size and population composition, three dependent variables for crime changes, and three control variables. Changes in popuvpdllation size and population composition are measured by indicators such as population size, gender, age groups, and immigrants and foreign workers, and crime changes by felonious, burglary, and violent crime volumes. The sample includes 154 cities and counties in South Korea, and the sample period is from 2010 to 2017. As a result of the analysis, I examine that the decrease in the number of young and men are likely to lead to a decline in felonious and violent crimes, but a high rate of the elderly and the increasing racial heterogeneity are likely to accelerate the fear and worries about crimes.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.208-215
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• 2014

Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century.

• 동남아시아연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.147-182
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to examine the population changes in the nine Southeast Asian countries, including Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Philippine, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand. According to the demographic transition theory which described the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, the demographic changes in less developed countries, including the Southeast Asian countries, follow the general pattern of the population changes that the Western countries had experienced. However, this theory does not consider the fact that the demographic behaviors such as fertility and mortality tend to be ethnocentric (or particular). Therefore, I examine in this paper both the generality and particularity of the population changes in the Southeast Asia . The analytic results are consistent with my assumptions. Every country in the Southeast Asia will soon reach the third phrase of the demographic transition and meet population ageing process. However, the timings arriving at the third phrase can differ. Singapore which is the most developed country had firstly passed through the demographic transition and the highest level of population ageing. Cambodia and Lao People's Democratic Republic, the least developed countries, will lastly arrive at the third phrase and the ageing society. In addition, among the three countries which had experienced war or civil war, only Cambodia had experienced babyboom.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.95-102
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• 2023

본 연구는 인구 감소로 인한 지역의 인구통계학적 구조 변화와 범죄 발생 간의 영향 관계에 있어서 인구 감소의 조절효과를 실증적으로 검증하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 인구통계학적 구조 변화를 구성하는 요인으로 청년층 인구의 변화, 남성 인구의 변화, 노인 인구의 변화, 외국인 인구의 변화, 인구이동의 변화를 선정하였으며, 통제변수로 도시의 유형을 연구모형에 투입하였다. 조절변수로는 인구 감소율을 그리고 종속변수로는 범죄 발생 변화율을 각각 활용하였다. 본 연구는 2010년부터 2022년까지 인구가 감소한 155개 지역을 대상으로 자료를 수집하였다. 자료는 KOSIS 국가통계포털과 정보공개 신청을 통해 수집되었으며, 수집된 자료는 조절회귀분석에 의해 분석되었다. 청년층인구 변화율, 남성 인구 변화율, 노인 인구 변화율, 외국인 인구 변화율, 인구이동 변화율, 인구감소율, 그리고 통제변수인 지역의 유형을 독립변수로 투입한 1단계와 2단계 분석에서 청년층 인구 변화율, 외국인 인구 변화율, 인구이동변화율, 인구감소율, 그리고 지역의 유형이 범죄 발생 변화율에 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 인구 감소의 조절효과를 검증하기 위해 조절회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 청년층 인구 변화율, 인구이동 변화율, 그리고 외국인 인구 변화율과 인구 감소율의 상호작용항이 통계학적으로 유의미한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.123-130
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• 2014

The decrease in the birth rate of the modern changes in population structure changed recovery households and household members. This change was seen in the furniture sector, 2010 population housing total survey data according to the types of households and household members indicate that future changes. Problems can predict the various issues raised, and to ensure that the supply of housing of the population structure and household type is not done properly and home sales take a look at home since 2000, was popular during the 2010 State. Therefore, this study is suggesting workarounds necessary adjustments due to changes in population structure, analyze news coverage of members of households with housing demand and housing as a base quantity change in the future of furniture and home situation changes, including housing demand and supply to purpose. Specify the range of Daegu-City research studies range, national statistical data and related literature, comparative analysis of time trends and derive a conclusion.

• 경영과학
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.17-26
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• 2014

This study presents a new real estate value analysis model considering the changes in the population structure. We propose a new model that takes advantage of the binomial option model one of the techniques of real options and considers the changes in the population structure. The real estate market price data of Seoul city from year 2001 to 2012 were extracted and the correlation analysis between real estate prices and changes in the population structure was performed. The result shows that they have positive correlation with one year time lag. The coefficient between the real estate prices and demographic changes was estimated using the OLS analysis and included in the traditional binomial option model to calculate the value of the property. It is assumed for the future price prediction that real estate invested in Seoul in January, 2013 will be sold within five years. Analysis result shows that the values of real estate in September of 2013 were predicted as 583.5 million won in the new model and as 582.4 million won in the traditional model. This reflects that the new model considering the change of population change gives better realistic performance than the traditional one.

• 한국인구학
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.1-16
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• 1994

Since 1962, the population growth control has been one of the most important aims in the 5-Year So-cioeconomic Development Plans of Korea. The annual population growth rate has dropped to tess than 1 percent in 1990 from about 3 percents in 1960s, and projected to reach to $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ percent in 2021. From 2021, Korean population will decrease and the age structure will be distorted because birth rate will drop suddenly and continuously. Thus, we can consider $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population for minimizing the prob- lems on the decreasing population. To discuss the problems caused from the changes of population size and age- sex composition, we projected three kinds of population including two kinds of $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under different as- sumptions. The first is the population which extended the projection of National Statistical Office up to 2090. Because the TFR is assumed and fixed as low as 1.63 after 1990, the population growth rate will be under $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ in 2021 and drop by about 1 percent every year from around 2050. This population trend results to old age population : 38.1 of old- age dependency ratio and 46.5 years of median age. The second is the population which the size in 2021 projected by the NOS continues after 2021. To change over from the decreasing population after 2021 to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth one, the TFR should be in-creased up to over 3.0 in 2040-2050, which fertility level would be too high to be accepted. The third is the population which approaches to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under the assumptions that the TFR increases from 1.63 to 2.1 in the period of 2010-2030 and then the same level continues. Although the maximum population size reaches 51, 503 thousand persons, the population will approach to the stationary population with about 42.4 million persons around 2090. In this projected population there is no more serious problems on population composition, on the rapid decrease of population, and on the increase TFR level. When the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population continues the problems of over population caused by the populationincrease wou]d be minimized, and the problems of unusual age composition resulted from the popula-tion decrease would not be found any more. Furthermore, when the changes of population size and composition is continuing slowly, the factors of population would effect moderately to socioeconomic development and help social changes. Therefore, with the attention of the present population changes, we should adapt new and detailde population policy which is able to get the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.71-102
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• 2020

This study analyzes the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. We use the supply-side output identity to forecast the growth potential of the Korean economy. According to the results, even based on optimistic assumptions and prospects, the economic growth rate is likely to fall drastically starting in 2020. Of course, to maintain growth potential, efforts to increase productivity are necessary. However, given the historical experience of developed countries, it is not clear whether the huge trend of demographic change can be offset by efforts to increase productivity. In the so-called '30-50 club' countries, both labor productivity and growth rate tend to fall after reaching the per capita income of $30,000. The degree of decline in the growth rate is closely related to changes in the working age population and the prime-age workforce. The results are similar when tracking the path of changes in total factor productivities of the economy. When a certain level of income is reached, the increase in total factor productivity also tends to slow down. The ripple effects of rapid changes in demographics will indeed be extensive. The negative impact is likely to be concentrated at a time when the working age population, the prime-age workforce, and the total population shrink simultaneously. Above all, it is necessary to use the government's fiscal space to block the possibility of a rapid fall in the growth rate. In addition, it is important to continuously implement various reform tasks that should be promoted, such as improving the education system and strengthening the social safety net.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.65-73
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• 2014

Purpose - Aging and fewer economically active people have challenged the assumption of continuous population increases. A new real estate valuation methodology reflecting changes in population structure is thus needed. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between demographic change and changes in real estate prices is analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) to estimate the parameters, and a population structure change (PSC)-Binomial Option Model is developed to assess the volatility of the estimated parameters. Results based on Seoul and Shanghai data are compared. Results - Results of the DCF method indicate that investing in Seoul is better than investing in Shanghai, but the binomial option indicates the opposite. The PSC-binomial option model, reflecting changes in population structure, yields higher values (24.6 million won in Seoul and 43.3 million won in Shanghai) than those given by the binomial option model. Conclusions - This study indicates that applying changes in population structure to existing research, such as in the binomial option model, represents a more accurate real estate valuation method. Results demonstrate that the new model is more accurate than existing models such as the DCF or binomial option.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제20권7호
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• pp.121-134
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• 2015

Spatial and temporal changes in algal population in Yongdam reservoir and ecological factors that induced the changes in the size and composition of algal population were investigated by monthly sampling at ten locations in the reservoir. Nutritional state of the reservoir was identified to be phosphorus-limited with nitrogen to phosphorus (N : P) ratio much greater than 17 in most samples. Algal population was dominated by three taxonomic groups, diatoms, chlorophytes and cyanobacteria. Although explosive algal growth was not observed in the summer, algal population showed transition with time of the dominant algal type from diatoms in the winter to cyanobacteria in the summer. Chlorophyta was not the dominant group in the reservoir although they maintained relatively stable number of cells in the reservoir and showed increase in population from March to May. The application of statistical methods revealed that the factors inducing changes in cell number of each group were water temperature for diatoms and cyanobacteria and phosphorus concentration for chlorophyte. Fluctuation of cyanobacterial population was mainly observed near the inlet of tributaries while diatoms showed higher variation inside the reservoir.