• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.5-13
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• 1981

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.71-102
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• 2020

This study analyzes the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. We use the supply-side output identity to forecast the growth potential of the Korean economy. According to the results, even based on optimistic assumptions and prospects, the economic growth rate is likely to fall drastically starting in 2020. Of course, to maintain growth potential, efforts to increase productivity are necessary. However, given the historical experience of developed countries, it is not clear whether the huge trend of demographic change can be offset by efforts to increase productivity. In the so-called '30-50 club' countries, both labor productivity and growth rate tend to fall after reaching the per capita income of $30,000. The degree of decline in the growth rate is closely related to changes in the working age population and the prime-age workforce. The results are similar when tracking the path of changes in total factor productivities of the economy. When a certain level of income is reached, the increase in total factor productivity also tends to slow down. The ripple effects of rapid changes in demographics will indeed be extensive. The negative impact is likely to be concentrated at a time when the working age population, the prime-age workforce, and the total population shrink simultaneously. Above all, it is necessary to use the government's fiscal space to block the possibility of a rapid fall in the growth rate. In addition, it is important to continuously implement various reform tasks that should be promoted, such as improving the education system and strengthening the social safety net.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.479-492
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of regional characteristics on population movement on the Seoul metropolitan areas. Method: To this end, 66 basic entities in the Seoul metropolitan area were divided into three regions by analyzing the demographic movement data from 2010 to 2016 and the factors for determining population movement within and between regions were identified by applying a stepwise regression technique. Result: The major analysis confirmed that the increase in the number of apartments in all areas of the Seoul metropolitan area, the increase in the number of single-family homes, the increase in the number of employees, the increase in manufacturers, the growth rate of knowledge, culture, and leisure industries, the increase rate of GRDP, and the opening of new subway stations. In particular, the growth rate of the number of apartments, the growth rate of the knowledge, culture and leisure industries, the increase rate of GRDP, and the opening of new subway stations played a positive role in increasing population inflow. Conclusion: The result showed that by region, the growth rate of knowledge, culture and leisure industries contributed greatly to the inflow of population in the first region, and that the opening of new subway stations and the increase of GRDPs were the main factors. The increase in the number of apartments and subway stations were the main factors in the three areas.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.36 no.1 s.67
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• pp.155-166
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• 2005

Since 1980's, fishery household population have been continuously in a down slope with a 5$\%$ annual decreasing rate in Korea. With a particular situation that the scale of over 60s population has been soaring compared with that of under 16 aged population plunging, some difficulties have been raised with the respect of labor supply into fishery communities. This study is aimed at analyzing the tendency of fisheries population with the change of economic development rates and prospect a future fisheries population with the consideration of present decreasing rate. Model results indicate that the tendency of future fishery household population would be decreased by 4.96$\%$ annually through a decade from 2000. Interestingly, it is predicted that the decreasing rate of male fishery household population would be faster than that of female. Consequently, women would hold a greater part in Fishery household population in 2010. In addition, the fishery household population of 40s and 50s would increase from 36$\%$ to 49$\%$, that of over 60s from 21$\%$ to 37$\%$. In conclusion, as a population over 40's encompass almost 90$\%$ in the total population, the fishing communities have a difficulty in shortage of the young workforce.

• Animal cells and systems
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.79-84
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• 2011

The status of J stock minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) was assessed using potential biological removal (PBR) and mortality data. Using the estimated abundance of minke whales in this area (6260; CV = 0.212), the minimum population estimate of the stock was estimated as 5247. The PBR for J stock minke whales was calculated as 52.5 individuals using the minimum population estimate (5247), one-half of the maximum theoretical net productivity rate (0.02) and the recovery factor (0.5). The estimated mean annual level of anthropogenic mortality was 270.4 individuals. Thus, the status of this stock was considered as strategic. However, fortunately, the abundance of this population in the East Sea from 2000 to 2008 showed an increasing trend (rate of increase 0.0488; annual rate of increase 5.0%) although it is not statistically significant (P > 0.05). The primary sources of anthropogenic mortality were bycatch (set nets, pots and gill nets) and illegal catch. Because of the status of this population, it is urgently necessary to reduce the amount of bycatch and illegal catch of minke whales. Further study needs to use population health and viability analysis for investigating the long-term survival of this population more clearly.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.51-67
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• 2008

The study analyzes divorce rates in Korea and makes suggestions for the future research of divorce rates. Based on the data from Korea Statistical Information System (KOSIS) of the National Statistics Organization, trends for divorce rates change and the relations between divorce rates and macro environmental factors are analyzed. Macro environmental factors include socioeconomic factors such as, Korean War, Vietnam War, oil shock, IMP economic crisis and gross national income (GNI), whereas demographical factors include population structure, rates of female labor participation, and geographical location. The principle characteristics of divorce rates are as follows: 1) the Crude divorce rates (CDR) and the number of divorced had been increased from 1970 to 2004, then the trend changed to a decrease; 2) the slope of the change were the highest during 1998 to 2004 after the IMP economic crisis. The relations between socioeconomic factors are as follows: 1) during the war there was a small increase of CDR for a short period of time; 2) the economic crisis of the nation tend to increase the CDR, while the IMP economic crisis had a strong impact on an increase of CDR because of the interaction effect among the population structure, women's sex role changes as well as the level of standard of living. The increase in CDR from 1990 to 2000 can be explained partly by the population of baby Boomers passing through their marriage and divorce process. The number of population residing in the rural area and the middle class households, and the mobility of population also had an impact on the divorce rates changes. The recommendations for the future research were as follows: 1) the need to develop new divorce statistics that are based on a marriage cohort or a birth cohort because family behavior is a mixture of personal, social and political responses, and because CDR is not an accurate measure of divorce rate since it was influenced by population structure; 2) the need to include micro personal factors as well as macro social factors in a model to find an interaction effect between those variables.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.118-138
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• 1985

This paper is aimed to analyse the recent changes in family planning as a step in an evaluation of the results of the population control policy which has been strenuously pursued by the government since December 1981. The data used in this analysis comes from the 1985 national fertility and family planning survey conducted by the Korea Institute for Population and Health (KIPH) in May 1985. According to the 1985 survey data, there have been great changes in both the contraceptive practice and fertility rates since the strengthening of the government's population control policy in 1 981. The contraceptive practice rate for married women aged 15-44 has increased from 57.7% in 1982 to 70.3% in 1985, an increase of 12.6% points in the short span of only 3 years. During the same period, the total fertility rate has declined from 2.7 in 1982 to the population replacement level which was planned to achieve by 1 988. More than 80% of women aged over 30 or with two children or more are practicing contraception, while the practice rates of women with 0-1 children are 14.0% and 45.1% respectively. The survey has revealed that the increase of contraceptive practice rate during 1982-1985 has mainly attributed to the high acceptance of sterilization procedures which practice rate of the married women has increased from 28.1% to 40.3% for the period. Also, the survey data shows that 24.7% of those women with only one child is practicing contraception for thepurpose of fertility termination. The government, taking into account of rapid changes in contraceptive practice and fertility rates, is formulating a population plan during the sixth fiveyear economic and social development plan (1987-1991) to achieve 1% ofpopulation growth rate by 1993, which was planned to realize by 2000. In order to meet this demographic goal, the existing population control policy measures should be improved to be suited to the recent contraceptive use and fertility changes. From this standpoint, the following considerations should be put forth; 1) improvement of the current program management systems including target allocation and evaluation schems for recruiting new acceptors in the young 20s groups to use contraceptives for birth spacing and to increase high continuation rates through the strengthening of follow-up services for the acceptors, 2) increase of self-supporting contraceptive users by promoting commercial advertisements on contraceptives through mass media including T.V. and radio, 3) development of social support policies including incentive schems, and strengthening of IE & C activities for increasing the proportion of the one-child family, 4) strengthening of population and family planning education in and out school youth, and 5) strengthening of management capabilities at the provincial and local program managers.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.49-70
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• 2010

Customer population management models can be classified into three categories: the first category includes the models that analyze the customer population at cohort level; the second one deals with the customer population at aggregate level; the third one has interest in the interactions among the customer populations in the competitive market. Our study proposes a model that can analyze the dynamics of customer population in consumer-durables market at aggregate level. The dynamics of customer population includes the retention curves from the purchase or at a specific duration time, the duration time expectancy at a specific duration time, and customer population growth or decline including net replacement rate, intrinsic rate of increase, and the generation time of customer population. For this study, we adopt mathematical ecology models, redefine them, and restructure interdisciplinary models to analyze the dynamics of customer population at aggregate level. We use the data of previous research on dynamic customer population management at cohort level to compare its results with those of ours and to demonstrate the useful analytical effects which the precious research cannot provide for marketers.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.74-83
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• 2009

In September 2008, the Korean government has legally pronounced criteria to designate the Impact Fee Zone on the basis of the population increase rate. Taking the Dongtan Newtown in Hwasung City as the case, the study tries a grid analysis method to figure out the cells that exceed the legal population increase rate criteria. The study then performs scenario analyses that try to envelope the cells into spatially contiguous groups based on their degrees of stepwise adjacency either by the cell buffer or the cell distance standards. By overlapping the selected cell groups over the actual land-use map for the vicinity, it is found that the selected areas reasonably coincide with the blocks of the high population density in the Newtown.

• Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.58-65
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• 1989

This study analyzes the structural characteristics of rapid changes in Korean population, using the data of a census and other data on the changes in the population. Major findings are : 1. During 1950~1955, annual increase rate of population was about 1.02%, about 2.88% during 1955~1960, and 1.36% during 1980~1985. It is expected to decrease to 0.07% during 2015~2020. 2. Major Age Composition 0~14 is expected to reduce to 16.5% in 2020 from 41.2% in 1955, while the ratio of population aged 15~64 is expected to increase to 72.1% from 55.5%. Furthermore, for the population group of age 65 and over is expected to increase from a mere 3.3% to 11.4%. 3. The aging index of population is expected to increase to 69.5 in 2020 from 8.0 in 1955 and so the old dependency ratio is expected to 15.9 from 6.0 4. The median age is expected to 40.2 in 2020 from 19.0 in 1955. 5. In 2020 the child-woman ratio is expected to reduce to 22.3 from 64.7 in 1955. 6. In 2020 the age index of 0~4 is expected to 57.4 from 169.4 in 1955, and the age index of 65~69 to 261.7 from 95.6 on the contrary.