• Title/Summary/Keyword: Policy System

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Indonesia, Malaysia Airline's aircraft accidents and the Indonesian, Korean, Chinese Aviation Law and the 1999 Montreal Convention

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.37-81
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    • 2015
  • AirAsia QZ8501 Jet departed from Juanda International Airport in, Surabaya, Indonesia at 05:35 on Dec. 28, 2014 and was scheduled to arrive at Changi International Airport in Singapore at 08:30 the same day. The aircraft, an Airbus A320-200 crashed into the Java Sea on Dec. 28, 2014 carrying 162 passengers and crew off the coast of Indonesia's second largest city Surabaya on its way to Singapore. Indonesia's AirAsia jet carrying 162 people lost contact with ground control on Dec. 28, 2014. The aircraft's debris was found about 66 miles from the plane's last detected position. The 155 passengers and seven crew members aboard Flight QZ 8501, which vanished from radar 42 minutes after having departed Indonesia's second largest city of Surabaya bound for Singapore early Dec. 28, 2014. AirAsia QZ8501 had on board 137 adult passengers, 17 children and one infant, along with two pilots and five crew members in the aircraft, a majority of them Indonesian nationals. On board Flight QZ8501 were 155 Indonesian, three South Koreans, and one person each from Singapore, Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 departed from Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8, 2014 at 00:41 local time and was scheduled to land at Beijing's Capital International Airport at 06:30 local time. Malaysia Airlines also marketed as China Southern Airlines Flight 748 (CZ748) through a code-share agreement, was a scheduled international passenger flight that disappeared on 8 March 2014 en route from Kuala Lumpur International Airport to Beijing's Capital International Airport (a distance of 2,743 miles: 4,414 km). The aircraft, a Boeing 777-200ER, last made contact with air traffic control less than an hour after takeoff. Operated by Malaysia Airlines (MAS), the aircraft carried 12 crew members and 227 passengers from 15 nations. There were 227 passengers, including 153 Chinese and 38 Malaysians, according to records. Nearly two-thirds of the passengers on Flight 370 were from China. On April 5, 2014 what could be the wreckage of the ill-fated Malaysia Airlines was found. What appeared to be the remnants of flight MH370 have been spotted drifting in a remote section of the Indian Ocean. Compensation for loss of life is vastly different between US. passengers and non-U.S. passengers. "If the claim is brought in the US. court, it's of significantly more value than if it's brought into any other court." Some victims and survivors of the Indonesian and Malaysia airline's air crash case would like to sue the lawsuit to the United States court in order to receive a larger compensation package for damage caused by an accident that occurred in the sea of Java sea and the Indian ocean and rather than taking it to the Indonesian or Malaysian court. Though each victim and survivor of the Indonesian and Malaysia airline's air crash case will receive an unconditional 113,100 Unit of Account (SDR) as an amount of compensation for damage from Indonesia's AirAsia and Malaysia Airlines in accordance with Article 21, 1 (absolute, strict, no-fault liability system) of the 1999 Montreal Convention. But if Indonesia AirAsia airlines and Malaysia Airlines cannot prove as to the following two points without fault based on Article 21, 2 (presumed faulty system) of the 1999 Montreal Convention, AirAsia of Indonesiaand Malaysia Airlines will be burdened the unlimited liability to the each victim and survivor of the Indonesian and Malaysia airline's air crash case such as (1) such damage was not due to the negligence or other wrongful act or omission of the air carrier or its servants or agents, or (2) such damage was solely due to the negligence or other wrongful act or omission of a third party. In this researcher's view for the aforementioned reasons, and under the laws of China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Korea the Chinese, Indonesian, Malaysia and Korean, some victims and survivors of the crash of the two flights are entitled to receive possibly from more than 113,100 SDR to 5 million US$ from the two airlines or from the Aviation Insurance Company based on decision of the American court. It could also be argued that it is reasonable and necessary to revise the clause referring to bodily injury to a clause mentioning personal injury based on Article 17 of the 1999 Montreal Convention so as to be included the mental injury and condolence in the near future.

A Comparative Study of Domestic and International regulation on Mixed-fleet Flying of Flight crew (운항승무원의 항공기 2개 형식 운항관련 국내외 기준 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Koo-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.403-425
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    • 2015
  • The Chicago Convention and Annexes have become the basis of aviation safety regulations for every contracting state. Generally, the State's aviation safety regulations refer to the Standards and Recommended Practices(SARPs) provided in the Annexes of the Chicago Convention. In order to properly reflect international aviation safety regulations, constant studies of the aviation fields are of paramount importance. This Paper is intended to identify the main differences between korean and foreign regulation and suggest a few amendment proposals on Mixed-fleet Flying(at or more two aircraft type operation) of flight crew. Comparing with these regulations, the korean regulations and implementations have some insufficiency points. I suggest some amendment proposals of korean regulations concerning Mixed-fleet Flying that flight crew operate aircraft of different types. Basically an operator shall not assign a pilot-in-command or a co-pilot to operate at the flight controls of a type of airplane during take-off and landing unless that pilot has operated the flight controls during at least three take-offs and landings within the preceding 90 days on the same type of airplane or in a flight simulator. Also, flight crew members are familiarized with the significant differences in equipment and/or procedures between concurrently operated types. An operator shall ensure that piloting technique and the ability to execute emergency procedures is checked in such a way as to demonstrate the pilot's competence on each type or variant of a type of airplane. Proficiency check shall be performed periodically. When an operator schedules flight crew on different types of airplanes with similar characteristics in terms of operating procedures, systems and handling, the State shall decide the requirements for each type of airplane can be combined. In conclusion, it is necessary for flight crew members to remain concurrently qualified to operate multiple types. The operator shall have a program to include, as a minimum, required differences training between types and qualification to maintain currency on each type. If the Operator utilizes flight crew members to concurrently operate aircraft of different types, the operator shall have qualification processes approved or accepted by the State. If applicable, the qualification curriculum as defined in the operator's Advanced Qualification Program could be applied. Flight crew members are familiarized with the significant differences in equipment and/or procedures between concurrently operated types. The difference among different types of airpcrafts decrease and standards for these airpcrafts can be applied increasingly because function and performance have been improved by aircraft manufacture company in accordance to basic aircraft system in terms of developing new aircrafts for flight standard procedure and safety of flight. Also, it becomes more necessary for flight crews to control multi aircraft types due to various aviation business and activation of leisure business. Nevertheless, in terms of flight crew training and qualification program, there are no regulations in Korea to be applied to new aircraft types differently in accordance with different levels. In addition, it has no choice different programs based on different levels because there are not provisions to restrict or limit and specific standards to operate at or more than two aircraft types for flight safety. Therefore the aviation authority introduce Flight Standardization and/or Operational Evaluation Board in order to analysis differences among aircraft types. In addition to that, the aviation authority should also improve standard flight evaluation and qualification system among different aircraft types for flight crews to apply reasonable training and qualification efficiently. For all the issue mentioned above, I have studied the ICAO SARPs and some state's regulation concerning operating aircraft of different types(Mixed-fleet flying), and suggested some proposals on the different aircraft type operation as an example of comprehensive problem solving. I hope that this paper is 1) to help understanding about the international issue, 2) to help the improvement of korean aviation regulations, 3) to help compliance with international standards and to contribute to the promotion of aviation safety, in addition.

A Study on the Location of Retail Trade in Kwangju-si and Its Inhabitants와 Effcient Utilization (광주시 소매업의 입지와 주민의 효율적 이용에 관한 연구)

  • ;Jeon, Kyung-sook
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.68-92
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    • 1995
  • Recentry the structure of the retail trade have been chanaed with its environmantal changes. Some studies may be necessary on the changing process of environment and fundamental structure analyses of the retail trade. This study analyzes the location of retail trades, inhabitants' behavior in retail tredes and their desirable utilization scheme of them in Kwangju-si. Some study methods, contents and coming-out results are as follows: 1. Retail trades can be classified into independent stores, chain-stores (supermarket, voluntary chain and frenchiise system and convenience store), department stores, cooperative associations, traditional, markets mail-order marketing, automatic vending and others by service levels, selling-items, prices, managements, methods of retailing and store or nonstore type. 2. In Kwangju, the environment of retail trades is related to the consumers of population structure: chanes in consumers pattern, trends toward agings and nuclear family, increase of leisur: time and female advances to society. Rapid structural shift in retail trade has also been occurred due to these social changes. Traditionl and premodern markets until 1970s altere to supermarkets or department stores in 1980s, and various types, large enterprises and foreign capitals came into being in 1990s. 3. The locational characteristics of retail trades are resulted from the spatial analysis of the total population distribution, and from the calculation of segregation index in the light of potential demand. The densely-populated areas occurs in newly-built apartment housing complex which is distributed with a ring-shaped pattern around the old urban core. The numbers and rates of the aged over sixty in Kwangsan-gu and the circumference area of Mt.Moodeung, are larger and higher where rural elements are remarkable. A relation between population distribution and retail trade are analysed by the index of population per shop. The index of the population number per shop is lower in urban center, as a whole, being more convenient for consumers. In newly-formed apartment complex areas, on the other, the index more than 1,000 per shop, meeting not the demands for consumers. Because both the younger and the aged are numerous in these areas, the retail trade pattern pertinent to both are needed. Urban fringes including Kwangsan-gu and the vicinity of Mt.Moodeung have some problems owing to the most of population number per shop (more than 1, 500) and the most extensive as well. 4. The regional characteristic of retail trade is analyzed through the location quotient of shops by locational patterns and centerality index. Chungkum-dong is the highest-order central place in CBD. It is the core of retail trades, which has higher-ordered specialty store including three big department stores, supermarkets and large stores. Taegum-dong, Chungsu-dong, Taeui-dong, and Numun-dong that are neiahbored to Chungkum-dong fall on the second group. They have a central commercial section where large chain stores, specialty shopping streets, narrow-line retailing shops (furniture, amusement service, and gallary), supermarkets and daily markets are located. The third group is formed on the axis of state roads linking to Naju-kun, Changseong-kun, Tamyang-kun, Hwasun-kun and forme-Songjeong-eup. It is related to newly, rising apartment housing complex along a trunk road, and characterized by markets and specialty stores. The fourth group has neibourhood-shopping centers including older residential area and Songjeong-eup area with independent stores and supermarkets as main retailing functions. The last group contains inner residential area and outer part of a city including Songjeong-eup. Outer part of miscellaneous shops being occasionally found is rural rather than urban (Fig. 7). 5. The residents' behaviors using retail trade are analyzed by factors of goods and facilities. Department stores are very high level in preference for higher-order shopping-goods such as clothes for full dress in view of both diversity and quality of goods(28.9%). But they have severe traffic congestions, and high competitions for market ranges caused by their sma . 64.0% of respondents make combined purpose trips together with banking and shopping. 6. For more efficiency of retail-trading, it is necessary to induce spatial distribution policy with regard to opportunity frequency of goods selection by central place, frontier regions and age groups. Also we must consider to analyze competition among different types of retail trade and analyze the consumption behaviors of working females and younger-aged groups, in aspects of time and space. Service improvement and the rationalization of management should be accomplished in such as cooperative location (situation) must be under consideration in relations to other functions such as finance, leisure & sports, and culture centers. Various service systems such as installment, credit card and peremium ticket, new used by enterprises, must also be carried service improvement. The rationalization and professionalization in for the commercial goods are bsically requested.

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Trends of Cancer Mortality in Gyeongsangbuk - do from 1991 to 1998 (경상북도 주민의 암사망 추이)

  • Kim, Byung-Guk;Lee, Sung-Kook;Kim, Tea-Woong;Lee, Do-Young;Lee, Kyeong-Soo
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.59-78
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    • 2001
  • Data on reported cancer mortality in the Gyeongsangbuk- do province from 1991 to 1998 were collected and analyzed using the existing mortality reporting system as well as the public health network to furnish accurate data on reported cancer death and to collect data to establish a high quality district health plan. The overall crude death rate in Gyeongsangbuk province in 1991 was 74.56 deaths per 100,000-person but this rate increased to 79.22 in 1998. Among the deaths, the overall death rate of cancer was 16.7% in 1991, which increased to 19.3% in 1998; specifically the death rate of men increased from 19.4% in 1991 to 22.3% in 1998 while that of women increased from 12.4% in 1991 to 15.5% in 1998, showing a more increase among women. The types of cancer and associated death rates in 1991 were gastric cancer(41.5%), followed by liver cancer (28.8%), and lung and bronchogenic carcinoma(8.7%) and in 1998, gastric cancer (24.7%), followed by liver cancer(22.7%), lung and bronchogenic carcinoma(19.3%), showing the same order. For men and women, gastric cancer(40.2% and 44.7%, respectively) was the most common cancer death, followed by liver cancer(33.7% and 16.7%, respectively), and lung and bronchogenic carcinoma(10.2% and 5.0%, respectively) in 1991. However, in 1998, gastric cancer(27.8%) was still the most common type among both men and women, followed by liver cancer (18.5%) and lung and bronchogenic carcinoma(12.7%), showing the most decrease in gastric cancer but most increase in lung and bronchogenic carcinoma. The age- adjusted mortality rates by gastric cancer, hepatoma, laryngeal carcinoma were decreased in both male and female, and also uterine cancer was decreased in female. The age- adjusted mortality rates by lung and bronchogenic carcinoma, pancreatic cancer, rectal cancer were increased in both male and female, and also breast cancer was increased in female. The calculated overall age-adjusted death rate based on the 1995 population was 84.25 in 1991, which decreased to 77.67 in 1998. Male death rate decreased significantly from 119.81 in 1991 to 101.82 in 1998 while the female death rate increased from 48.64 in 1991 to 53.80 in 1998. A census of cancer death rate using accurate death records is important for the establishment of proper and high-quality district health and medical plan and policy. The effort to improve the accuracy of death reports using the health facility network, as had been attempted by this study, can be continued. Furthermore, there must be a way for the Health and Welfare Department to use the death reports to improve the present reporting system. Lastly, additional studies need to be conducted to investigate how much the accuracy was improved by the supplemented death reports in this study.

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A Methodology to Develop a Curriculum based on National Competency Standards - Focused on Methodology for Gap Analysis - (국가직무능력표준(NCS)에 근거한 조경분야 교육과정 개발 방법론 - 갭분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Byeon, Jae-Sang;Ahn, Seong-Ro;Shin, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2015
  • To train the manpower to meet the requirements of the industrial field, the introduction of the National Qualification Frameworks(hereinafter referred to as NQF) was determined in 2001 by National Competency Standards(hereinafter referred to as NCS) centrally of the Office for Government Policy Coordination. Also, for landscape architecture in the construction field, the "NCS -Landscape Architecture" pilot was developed in 2008 to be test operated for 3 years starting in 2009. Especially, as the 'realization of a competence-based society, not by educational background' was adopted as one of the major government projects in the Park Geun-Hye government(inaugurated in 2013) the NCS system was constructed on a nationwide scale as a detailed method for practicing this. However, in the case of the NCS developed by the nation, the ideal job performing abilities are specified, therefore there are weaknesses of not being able to reflect the actual operational problem differences in the student level between universities, problems of securing equipment and professors, and problems in the number of current curricula. For soft landing to practical curriculum, the process of clearly analyzing the gap between the current curriculum and the NCS must be preceded. Gap analysis is the initial stage methodology to reorganize the existing curriculum into NCS based curriculum, and based on the ability unit elements and performance standards for each NCS ability unit, the discrepancy between the existing curriculum within the department or the level of coincidence used a Likert scale of 1 to 5 to fill in and analyze. Thus, the universities wishing to operate NCS in the future measuring the level of coincidence and the gap between the current university curriculum and NCS can secure the basic tool to verify the applicability of NCS and the effectiveness of further development and operation. The advantages of reorganizing the curriculum through gap analysis are, first, that the government financial support project can be connected to provide quantitative index of the NCS adoption rate for each qualitative department, and, second, an objective standard is provided on the insufficiency or sufficiency when reorganizing to NCS based curriculum. In other words, when introducing in the subdivisions of the relevant NCS, the insufficient ability units and the ability unit elements can be extracted, and the supplementary matters for each ability unit element per existing subject can be extracted at the same time. There is an advantage providing directions for detailed class program and basic subject opening. The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Employment and Labor must gather people from the industry to actively develop and supply the NCS standard a practical level to systematically reflect the requirements of the industrial field the educational training and qualification, and the universities wishing to apply NCS must reorganize the curriculum connecting work and qualification based on NCS. To enable this, the universities must consider the relevant industrial prospect and the relation between the faculty resources within the university and the local industry to clearly select the NCS subdivision to be applied. Afterwards, gap analysis must be used for the NCS based curriculum reorganization to establish the direction of the reorganization more objectively and rationally in order to participate in the process evaluation type qualification system efficiently.

A study on the Success Factors and Strategy of Information Technology Investment Based on Intelligent Economic Simulation Modeling (지능형 시뮬레이션 모형을 기반으로 한 정보기술 투자 성과 요인 및 전략 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2013
  • Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

A Study on the Resilience Process of Persons with Disabilities (중도장애인의 레질리언스(Resilience) 과정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Mi-Ok
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.99-129
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    • 2008
  • This study analyzed the resilience process of persons with disabilities using the grounded theory approach. To conduct this study, the researcher conducted in-depth interviews with 8 persons with disabilities. In data analysis, this study identified 393 concepts on the resilience process of persons with disabilities and the concepts were categorized into 45 sub-categories and 18 primary categories. In the paradigm model on the resilience process of persons with disabilities, it was identified that casual conditions included 'unawareness of disability before being disability', 'extreme pain', 'repressing psychological pain', and the contingent conditions were 'dis-empowerment by staying in home', 'isolation by himself with difficulty in accepting the disability', 'experience of frustration from social barriers with prejudice against persons with disabilities'. Also, it was identified that the resilience process could be dependent on the type and the degree of the disability, the gender, and the length of time being disability. In spite of the casual and contingent conditions, the central way in which persons with disabilities could acquire resilience was identified as 'enhancement of the power of positive thinking'. The control conditions which accelerate or retard central phenomenon were 'the awareness of not being alone through family, friends, neighborhood and the social system' externally and 'finding purpose in life through religion and help from other persons with disabilities', internally. The action/interactional sequences enhanced the efforts, self searching and active acting, and as a result, persons with disabilities could find comfort in life, participate in society and change the perspective of disability in society. The core categories of resilience process in persons with disabilities were a belief in affirmation and choice of life by initiative. In the process analysis, stages developed in the following: 'pain', 'strangeness', 'reflection', 'daily life'. This stage was more continuous and causal than discrete and complete. In this process, the types of resilience of persons with disabilities are divided into 'existence reflection', 'course development', 'implicit endeavor', and 'active execution'. This study showed the details of the paradigm models, the process and types with an in-depth understanding of the resilience process of persons with disabilities using grounded theory as well as theory construction and policy and clinical involvement on the study of persons with disabilities.

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The Present Situation and Future Strategies of 4-Year Nursing Baccalaureate Program (한국 4년제 대학 간호교육의 현황과 발전방안)

  • Park Jeong-Sook
    • The Journal of Korean Academic Society of Nursing Education
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 1995
  • One of the biggest problems of Nursing Education in Korea is the division among nursing education programs of the last 3 and 4 years. To solve this problem, Nursing community must do variable trials to achieve the unity of a 4-year educational program. With this, we need to observe the phenomena and reality of the present 4-year nursing educational program that we have. The object of this study is to analyse and discuss that we have. The object of this study is to analyse and discuss the problems and future strategies of 4-year Nursing Baccalaureate program. 1. Problems as nursing department in Medical School. 1) Many 4-year nursing baccalaureate programs are operating under the medical school as nursing department. So the academic development in nursing department is unprogressive and is not approved as unique discipline. 2) The operating system between nursing and medical department are different even though they are in the same school. 3) Inequality between nursing and medical department : In many case, the nursing professor can not attend administraion committees to discuss the medical school's operation because of many differences between nursing and medical organization. 4) Weakness of the leadership and the student activities in nursing student : The nursing student involvement is usually passive because of the difference of curriculum, less number than medical students and the difference between 4-year and 6-year education program. 5) There is the obscurity of the relationship between department of nursing and other departments in whole university. 2. Problems in nursing itself 1) We need to reconstruct nursing discipline. We must change from the disease centered model to health centered model and life cycle centered model so that we can be distinguished from medicine. We also must change from hospital centered nursing to all population centered nursing, 2) The improvement of curriculum ; When the independent framework of nursing discipline become established, we need to improve the curriculum. 3) The education of clinical practice ; Most nursing school programs are divided into professors who are lecturing the theory and clinical teachers who are teaching the nursing technique in the clinic. So, what is needed in nursing discipline is that the professors have a dual position. In America, The professor is required to be a clinical specialist and to have his or her clinic so that the professor become a good role model, teach the clinical practice effectively, and give the student the practice field. 4) To extend fields of nursing : At first, the school nurse must become the school health educator, a real teacher. The nurse must establish and operate a childern's wellbeing center or nursery school, a disabled people's house or senile's wellbeing center, a mental health center, and a health promotion clinic for healthy people. 5) The name 'nursing department' need to be considered. When the focus is to be changed from the disease model to health improvement model, we take into consideration change 'nursing college', 'nursing department' and 'nursing profession' to 'health science college' or 'health wellbeing college'. 6) We must have highly qualified academic students. Each Nursing educational faculties must have the high qualified students through the development of nursing educational program and the increment of scholarship. The Korean Nurses Association and The Korean Clinical Nurses Association need to make an endeavor for the improvement of work condition and payment of clinical nurses of hospitals who consist of 70% of all nursing manpower. 3. Improvement Strategy 1) All nursing educational program must be changed 4-year program gradually. 2) Nursing department need to try to become nursing college. 3) We need to study many researches for improvement of the problem in nursing discipline and nursing education. We need more interdisciplinary researches, and we need to be granted for that research. 4) We need to have many seminars and workshops thoughout the whole country to expand a sense of nursing education. 5) Drawing up a policies plan for the nursing educational improvement : The Korean Nurses Association, The Korean Academic Nursing Association, Korea Nursing College and department President's Committee, and Korea Academic Society of Nursing Education must try for the development of nursing educational improvement and ask for government frame the policy to develop nursing education.

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