• Title/Summary/Keyword: Policy Simulation

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The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.4
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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Applicability Analysis of the HSPF Model for the Management of Total Pollution Load Control at Tributaries (지류총량관리를 위한 HSPF 모형의 적용성 분석)

  • Song, Chul Min;Kim, Jung Soo;Lee, Min Sung;Kim, Seo Jun;Shin, Hyung Seob
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2022
  • The total maximum daily load (TMDL) implemented in Korea mainly manages the mainstream considering a single common pollutant and river discharge, and the river system is divided into unit watersheds. Changes in the water quality of managed rivers owing to the water quality management in tributaries and unit watersheds are not considered when implementing the TMDL. In addition, it is difficult to consider the difference in the load of pollutants generated in the tributary depending on the conditions of the water quality change in each unit watershed, even if the target water quality was maintained in the managed water system. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the total maximum load management at tributaries to manage the pollution load of tributaries with a high degree of pollution. In this study, the HSPF model, a watershed runoff model, was applied to the target areas consisting of 53 sub-watersheds to analyze the effect of water quality changes the in tributaries on the mainstream. Sub-watersheds were selected from the three major areas of the Paldang water system, including the drainage basins of the downstream of the South Han-River, Gyeongan stream, and North Han-River. As a result, BOD ranged from 0.17 mg/L to 4.30 mg/L, and was generally high in tributaries and decreased in the downstream watershed. TP ranged from 0.02 mg/L - 0.22 mg/L, and the watersheds that had a large impact on urbanization and livestock industry were high, and the North Han-River basin was generally low. In addition, a pollution source reduction scenario was selected to analyze the change in water quality by the amount of pollution load discharged at each unit watershed. The reduction rate of BOD and TP according to the scenario changes was simulated higher in the watershed of the downstream of the North Han-River and downstream and midstream of the Gyeongan stream. It was found that the benefits of water quality reduction from each sub-watershed efforts to improve water quality are greatest in the middle and downstream of each main stream, and it is judged that it can be served as basic data for the management of total tributaries.

Application of the LISFLOOD-FP model for flood stage prediction on the lower mankyung river (만경강 하류 홍수위 예측을 위한 LISFLOOD-FP 모형의 적용성 검토)

  • Jeon, Ho-Seong;Kim, Ji-sung;Kim, Kyu-ho;Hong, il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.459-467
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    • 2016
  • LISFLOOD-FP model in which channel flows are resolved separately from the floodplain flows using either a kinematic or diffusive wave approximation has been used to analyze flooding behavior on the lower Mankyung River influenced by backwater. A calibration and validation process was applied using the previous flood events to assess the model performance. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for main calibrated parameters, such as Manning roughness coefficient and downstream boundary condition. Also, we examined the effect of warm-up for the initial conditions. The results show that the computed hydrograph is in good agreement with measured data on the study reach, even though it was a hydrologic kinematic wave model. The sensitive analysis show that the difference between the computed results may be greater depending on the used calibrated parameters and that the sufficient calibration/validation process against various flood events is necessary. If the flood inundation simulation is performed using the validated model, it is expected to be able to contribute about river planning and policy decision-making for flood damage reduction.

Exploring User Attitude to Information Privacy (개인정보 노출에 대한 인터넷 사용자의 태도에 관한 연구)

  • Baek, Seung Ik;Choi, Duk Sun
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2015
  • As many companies have been interested in big data, they have invested a lot of resources to get more customer data. Some companies try to trade the data illegally. In order to collect more customer data, companies provide various incentive programs to customers. However, their results are normally much less than their expectations. This study focuses on exploring the relative importance of the factors which influence customer attitudes to providing his/her personal information. This study conducts a conjoint analysis to assess trade-offs among the five influential factors-monetary reward, concern for data collection, concern for secondary use, concern for unauthorized use, and concern for errors. This study finds that the customer attitude to providing personal information is most influenced by the concern for secondary use. Furthermore, it shows that there are some differences between the light internet user group and the heavy internet user group in the relative importances of these factors. The monetary rewards appeal to the heavy internet users, rather than the light internet users.

Cache Memory and Replacement Algorithm Implementation and Performance Comparison

  • Park, Na Eun;Kim, Jongwan;Jeong, Tae Seog
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose practical results for cache replacement policy by measuring cache hit and search time for each replacement algorithm through cache simulation. Thus, the structure of each cache memory and the four types of alternative policies of FIFO, LFU, LRU and Random were implemented in software to analyze the characteristics of each technique. The paper experiment showed that the LRU algorithm showed hit rate and search time of 36.044% and 577.936ns in uniform distribution, 45.636% and 504.692ns in deflection distribution, while the FIFO algorithm showed similar performance to the LRU algorithm at 36.078% and 554.772ns in even distribution and 45.662% and 489.574ns in bias distribution. Then LFU followed, Random algorithm was measured at 30.042% and 622.866ns at even distribution, 36.36% at deflection distribution and 553.878ns at lowest performance. The LRU replacement method commonly used in cache memory has the complexity of implementation, but it is the most efficient alternative to conventional alternative algorithms, indicating that it is a reasonable alternative method considering the reference information of data.

Assessment & Implication on Ex-post Free Trade Agreements with respect to the Korean Agricultural Sector (기 체결 FTA 농업부문 사후영향평가와 시사점)

  • Han, Suk-Ho;Lee, Suhwan;Youm, Jung-Won;Ji, Seong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.377-385
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the impact of the implementation of 14 FTAs on the domestic agricultural sector through aneconomic post-impact assessment using the dynamic analysis method. As a result of the implementation of the FTAs, agricultural production decreased significantly, mainly in the livestock and fruit sectors. Most of the previous studieswere limited to the post-impact assessment of individual FTAs, which does not reflect the fact that the implementation of a number of FTAs results ina combinationof trade creation, trade transitions, and FTA accumulation effects. Therefore, this study provides amore objective and comprehensive evaluation of the effects of FTAs in the agricultural sector, and contributes to some extent to the evaluation of the policy directions necessary for revising and supplementing the domestic measures needed to supplement the FTAs. Of course, a more sophisticated analysis is needed to separate the impact of these complementary domestic measures and the performance of the general agricultural project.

A Cognitive Beamforming Scheme for Cross-Tier Interference Mitigation in Heterogeneous Cellular Networks (이종 셀룰러 망에서 계층 간 간섭완화를 위한 인지 빔형성 기법)

  • Seo, Ju-yeol;Park, Seungyoung
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.1387-1401
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    • 2016
  • When a closed access policy in which only an authorized user is allowed to access to a given base station (BS) has been employed in heterogeneous cellular networks, a macro-cell user is used to experience strong cross-tier interference from its adjacent small-cell BSs to which the user is not allowed to access. To mitigate this problem, it has been proposed that a small-cell BS employs a beamforming vector which is orthogonal to the channel of the victim user. However, this technique requires considerable mutual exchange of information among the macro-cell BS, the macro-cell user, and the small-cell BS. In this paper, we propose a cognitive beamforming scheme, in which a small-cell BS employs the beamforming orthogonal to the victim users' channel without any explicit mutual information exchange. Particularly, the small-cell BS finds small- and macro-cell users experiencing the co-tier and cross-tier interferences from it, respectively. Then, it employs a beamforming which is orthogonal to the victim users' channels to mitigate the co-tier and cross-tier interferences. Using the system-level simulation, we demonstrate that the proposed scheme effectively mitigates the cross-tier interference problem.

Reservoir Operating System Using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming for the Han River Basin (표본 추계학적 동적계획법을 사용한 한강수계 저수지 운영시스템 개발)

  • Eum, Hyung-Il;Park, Myung-Ky
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.67-79
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    • 2010
  • Korea water resources corporation (K-Water) has developed the real-time water resources management system for the Nakdong and the Geum River basin to efficiently operate multi-purpose dams in the basins. This study has extended to the Han River basin for providing an effective ending target storage of a month to the real-time water resources management system using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP), consequently increasing the efficiency of the reservoir system. The optimization model were developed for three reservoirs, named Soyang, Chungju, and Hwacheon, with high priority in terms of the amounts of effective capacity and water supply for the basin. The number of storage state variable for each dam to set an optimization problem has been assigned from the results of sensitivity analysis. Compared with the K-water operating policy with the target water supply elevations, the optimization model suggested in this study showed that the shortfalls are decreased by 37.22 MCM/year for the required water demands in the basin, even increasing 171 GWh in hydro electronic power generation. In addition, the result of a reservoir operating system during the drawdown period applied to real situation demonstrates that additional releases for water quality or hydro electronic power generation would be possible during the drawdown period between 2007 and 2008. On the basis of these simulation results, the applicability of the SSDP model and the reservoir operating system is proved. Therefore, the more efficient reservoir operation can be achieved if the reservoir operating system is extended further to other Korean basins.

Environmental Tax in the Energy Sector and Its Income Distribution Effect (에너지부문 환경세 도입의 소득분배 파급효과)

  • Kang, Man-Ok;Lim, Byung-In
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2008
  • This study examined the income distribution effect of the environmental taxes in the energy sector by applying the Urban Family Survey and the Household Income and Expenditure Survey to the Kakwani index. The results analyzed are as follows: first, taxes of the non-transportation energy sector show progressive tax schemes, while those of transportation energy show regressive ones. Second, we calculated the scenario-specific progressivity index on basis of the existing energy price structure. Contrary to the previous works claimed to be regressive, the progressivity in scenario I got higher than before, except for the congestion taxes. Also, the index by the total sum of taxes in scenario II showed just a little bit higher progressive tax system. In scenario III, both the value added tax and the total sum of taxes have a little regressive structure, but the indexes in the environmental taxes, heat capacity taxes, and those which the environmental tax and the congestion tax and heat capacity taxes are summed up, are in general progressive. Third, subsidizing the tax revenues raised from the environmental taxes to the poor classes by a simulation approach shows more progressive as expected, implying the more subsidy the higher the progressivity index. As a result, it is said that the implementation of the environmental taxes has no negative impact on the income distribution, and the subsidy of the tax revenue raised from it to the poor can make the income inequality improve.

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