• Title/Summary/Keyword: Polar Grid

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Performance Assessment of Weekly Ensemble Prediction Data at Seasonal Forecast System with High Resolution (고해상도 장기예측시스템의 주별 앙상블 예측자료 성능 평가)

  • Ham, Hyunjun;Won, Dukjin;Lee, Yei-sook
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.261-276
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    • 2017
  • The main objectives of this study are to introduce Global Seasonal forecasting system version5 (GloSea5) of KMA and to evaluate the performance of ensemble prediction of system. KMA has performed an operational seasonal forecast system which is a joint system between KMA and UK Met office since 2014. GloSea5 is a fully coupled global climate model which consists of atmosphere (UM), ocean (NEMO), land surface (JULES) and sea ice (CICE) components through the coupler OASIS. The model resolution, used in GloSea5, is N216L85 (~60 km in mid-latitudes) in the atmosphere and ORCA0.25L75 ($0.25^{\circ}$ on a tri-polar grid) in the ocean. In this research, we evaluate the performance of this system using by RMSE, Correlation and MSSS for ensemble mean values. The forecast (FCST) and hindcast (HCST) are separately verified, and the operational data of GloSea5 are used from 2014 to 2015. The performance skills are similar to the past study. For example, the RMSE of h500 is increased from 22.30 gpm of 1 week forecast to 53.82 gpm of 7 week forecast but there is a similar error about 50~53 gpm after 3 week forecast. The Nino Index of SST shows a great correlation (higher than 0.9) up to 7 week forecast in Nino 3.4 area. It can be concluded that GloSea5 has a great performance for seasonal prediction.

Prediction of the Spawning Ground of Todarodes pacificus under IPCC Climate A1B Scenario (IPCC 기후변화 시나리오(A1B)에 따른 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 산란장의 변동 예측)

  • Kim, Jung-Jin;Min, Hong-Sik;Kim, Cheol-Ho;Yoon, Jin-Hee;Kim, Su-Am
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.253-264
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    • 2012
  • In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{\circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{\circ}{\times}1/6^{\circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.

Performance Assessment of Monthly Ensemble Prediction Data Based on Improvement of Climate Prediction System at KMA (기상청 기후예측시스템 개선에 따른 월별 앙상블 예측자료 성능평가)

  • Ham, Hyunjun;Lee, Sang-Min;Hyun, Yu-Kyug;Kim, Yoonjae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.149-164
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to introduce the improvement of current operational climate prediction system of KMA and to compare previous and improved that. Whereas the previous system is based on GloSea5GA3, the improved one is built on GloSea5GC2. GloSea5GC2 is a fully coupled global climate model with an atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice and land components through the coupler OASIS. This is comprised of component configurations Global Atmosphere 6.0 (GA6.0), Global Land 6.0 (GL6.0), Global Ocean 5.0 (GO5.0) and Global Sea Ice 6.0 (GSI6.0). The compositions have improved sea-ice parameters over the previous model. The model resolution is N216L85 (~60 km in mid-latitudes) in the atmosphere and ORCA0.25L75 ($0.25^{\circ}$ on a tri-polar grid) in the ocean. In this research, the predictability of each system is evaluated using by RMSE, Correlation and MSSS, and the variables are 500 hPa geopotential height (h500), 850 hPa temperature (t850) and Sea surface temperature (SST). A predictive performance shows that GloSea5GC2 is better than GloSea5GA3. For example, the RMSE of h500 of 1-month forecast is decreased from 23.89 gpm to 22.21 gpm in East Asia. For Nino3.4 area of SST, the improvements to GloSeaGC2 result in a decrease in RMSE, which become apparent over time. It can be concluded that GloSea5GC2 has a great performance for seasonal prediction.

Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns in GloSea5 Hindcast Experiments up to 6 Weeks (GloSea5 북반구 대기 원격상관패턴의 1~6주 주별 예측성능 검증)

  • Kim, Do-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Ha;Yoo, Changhyun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.295-309
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    • 2019
  • Due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather, the need to improve the accuracy of subseasonal prediction has increased. Here we analyze the performance of weekly predictions out to 6 weeks by GloSea5 climate model. The performance in circulation field from January 1991 to December 2010 is first analyzed at each grid point using the 500-hPa geopotential height. The anomaly correlation coefficient and mean-square skill score, calculated each week against the ECWMF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, illustrate better prediction skills regionally in the tropics and over the ocean and seasonally during winter. Secondly, we evaluate the predictability of 7 major teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Scandinavia (SCAND), Polar/Eurasia (PE), West Pacific (WP), Pacific-North American (PNA). Skillful predictability of the patterns turns out to be approximately 1~2 weeks. During summer, the EAWR and SCAND, which exhibit a wave pattern propagating over Eurasia, show a considerably lower skill than the other 5 patterns, while in winter, the WP and PNA, occurring in the Pacific region, maintain the skill up to 2 weeks. To account for the model's bias in reproducing the teleconnection patterns, we measure the similarity between the teleconnection patterns obtained in each lead time. In January, the model's teleconnection pattern remains similar until lead time 3, while a sharp decrease of similarity can be seen from lead time 2 in July.

Obstacle Avoidance of Unmanned Surface Vehicle based on 3D Lidar for VFH Algorithm (무인수상정의 장애물 회피를 위한 3차원 라이다 기반 VFH 알고리즘 연구)

  • Weon, Ihn-Sik;Lee, Soon-Geul;Ryu, Jae-Kwan
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.945-953
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we use 3-D LIDAR for obstacle detection and avoidance maneuver for autonomous unmanned operation. It is aimed to avoid obstacle avoidance in unmanned water under marine condition using only single sensor. 3D lidar uses Quanergy's M8 sensor to collect surrounding obstacle data and includes layer information and intensity information in obstacle information. The collected data is converted into a three-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system, which is then mapped to a two-dimensional coordinate system. The data including the obstacle information converted into the two-dimensional coordinate system includes noise data on the water surface. So, basically, the noise data generated regularly is defined by defining a hypothetical region of interest based on the assumption of unmanned water. The noise data generated thereafter are set to a threshold value in the histogram data calculated by the Vector Field Histogram, And the noise data is removed in proportion to the amount of noise. Using the removed data, the relative object was searched according to the unmanned averaging motion, and the density map of the data was made while keeping one cell on the virtual grid map. A polar histogram was generated for the generated obstacle map, and the avoidance direction was selected using the boundary value.

Electrical Stimulation Parameters in Normal and Degenerate Rabbit Retina (정상 망막과 변성 망막을 위한 전기자극 파라미터)

  • Jin, Gye-Hwan;Goo, Yong-Sook
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2008
  • Retinal prosthesis is regarded as the most feasible method for the blind caused by retinal diseases such as retinitis pigmentosa (RP) or age related macular degeneration (AMD). Recently Korean consortium launched for developing retinal prosthesis. One of the prerequisites for the success of retinal prosthesis is the optimization of the electrical stimuli applied through the prosthesis. Since electrical characteristics of degenerate retina are expected to differ from those of normal retina, we performed voltage stimulation experiment both in normal and degenerate retina to provide a guideline for the optimization of electrical stimulation for the upcoming prosthesis. After isolation of retina, retinal patch was attached with the ganglion cell side facing the surface of microelectrode arrays (MEA). $8{\times}8$ grid layout MEA (electrode diameter: $30{\mu}m$, electrode spacing: $200{\mu}m$, and impedance: $50k{\Omega}$ at 1 kHz) was used to record in-vitro retinal ganglion cell activity. Mono-polar electrical stimulation was applied through one of the 60 MEA channel, and the remaining channels were used for recording. The electrical stimulus was a constant voltage, charge-balanced biphasic, anodic-first square wave pulse without interphase delay, and 50 trains of pulse was applied with a period of 2 sec. Different electrical stimuli were applied. First, pulse amplitude was varied (voltage: $0.5{\sim}3.0V$). Second, pulse duration was varied $(100{\sim}1,200{\mu}s)$. Evoked responses were analyzed by PSTH from averaged data with 50 trials. Charge density was calculated with Ohm's and Coulomb's law. In normal retina, by varying the pulse amplitude from 0.5 to 3V with fixed duration of $500{\mu}s$, the threshold level for reliable ganglion cell response was found at 1.5V. The calculated threshold of charge density was $2.123mC/cm^2$. By varying the pulse duration from 100 to $1,200{\mu}s$ with fixed amplitude of 2V, the threshold level was found at $300{\mu}s$. The calculated threhold of charge density was $1.698mC/cm^2$. Even after the block of ON-pathway with L-(1)-2-amino-4-phosphonobutyric acid (APB), electrical stimulus evoked ganglion cell activities. In this APB-induced degenerate retina, by varying the pulse duration from 100 to $1200{\mu}s$ with fixed voltage of 2 V, the threshold level was found at $300{\mu}s$, which is the same with normal retina. More experiment with APB-induced degenerate retina is needed to make a clear comparison of threshold of charge density between normal and degenerate retina.

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