• Title/Summary/Keyword: Poisson regression model

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Uncertainty Analysis of Stage-Discharge Curve Based on Bayesian Regression Model Coupled with Change-Point Analysis (Bayesian 회귀분석과 변동점 분석을 이용한 수위-유량 관계곡선 불확실성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.364-364
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    • 2012
  • 수자원 연구의 주요 목적인 효과적인 홍수 및 가뭄관리를 하기 위해서는 그 연구의 기초가 되는 자료를 관측하고 정도(accuracy, 精度)를 향상시키는 연구 또한 매우 중요한 부분이라고 볼 수 있다. 이러한 점에서 수위-유량측정의 경우, 관측자의 숙련도와 계측기 오차에 따라 관측값에 미치는 영향이 큰 특징을 갖고 있어 유량측정의 정확성을 높이고자 진보된 계측기의 개발 및 분석 방법에 관한 연구는 꾸준히 진행되고 있다. 일반적으로 유량을 추정하기 위해서 특정 단면에서의 수위를 측정하여 이를 수위-유량 관계곡선을 통해서 유량으로 환산하고, 수위-유량 관계를 측정한 후 이를 회귀분석 방법으로 내삽 및 외삽을 실시하여 유량을 측정하게 된다. 그러나 수위-유량 관계곡선에서 저수위와 고수위를 하나의 곡선식으로 하게 되는 경우 정도가 낮아지게 되므로 많은 경우에 있어서 저수위, 고수위를 각각의 곡선으로 구하여 사용하고 있다. 문제는 이러한 경우 정량적으로 변곡점을 구하기보다는 경험적으로 저수위와 고수위를 구분하고 있으며, 수위-유량관계를 회귀식에 의해서 추정하게 되므로 이에 대한 불확실성이 발생하게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 불확실성을 정량화시키기 위한 방법으로 Bayesian MCMC 기법을 활용하며 수위-유량 관계곡선식의 매개변수들의 사후분포를 추정하여 매개변수의 최적화 및 불확실성을 평가하였다. 앞서 언급되었듯이 저수위 및 고수위로 분리하여 수위-유량 곡선식을 도출하고 있으나 저수위 및 고수위를 분리하는 기준이 경험적이기 때문에 신뢰성이 저해되는 문제점이 발생한다. 본 연구에서는 수위-유량 곡선식의 매개변수들을 최적화 하는 동시에 Poisson 분포 기반의 변동점 분석이 연동되어 저수위 및 고수위를 분리할 수 있는 Bayesian 기반 통합 수위-유량 곡선 해석 방법을 개발하고자 한다.

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Evaluation of Indentation Fracture Toughens in Brittle Materials Based on FEA Solutions (유한요소해에 기초한 취성재료의 압입파괴인성평가)

  • Hyun, Hong Chul;Lee, Jin Heang;Felix, Rickhey;Lee, Hyungyil
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.12
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    • pp.1503-1512
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we proposed an indentation evaluation method for fracture toughness using cohesive finite element simulations. First, we examined the effect of material properties (yield strain, Poisson's ratio, and elastic modulus) on crack size during Vickers indentation and then generated a regression formula that explains the relations among fracture toughness, indentation load, and crack size. We also proposed another indentation formula for fracture toughness evaluation using the contact size a and E/H (H: hardness). Finally, we examined the relation between the crack size and the indenter shapes. Based on this, we can generate from the formula obtained using the Vickers indenter a formula for an indenter of different shapes. Using the proposed method, fracture toughness is directly estimated from indentation data.

Non-linear Relationship Between Body Mass Index and Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms in Korean Males

  • Choi, Chang Kyun;Kim, Sun A;Jeong, Ji-An;Kweon, Sun-Seog;Shin, Min-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.147-153
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between body mass index (BMI) and severe lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) in Korean males. Methods: This study was conducted on males aged ${\geq}50years$ who participated in the 2011 Korean Community Health Survey. LUTS severity was assessed using the Korean version of the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) questionnaire, and was dichotomized as severe (IPSS >19) and non-severe ($IPSS{\leq}19$). BMI was divided into 6 categories: <18.5, 18.5-22.9, 23.0-24.9, 25.0-27.4, 27.5-29.9, and ${\geq}30.0kg/m^2$. To evaluate the relationship between BMI and LUTS, a survey-weighted multivariate Poisson regression analysis was performed to estimate prevalence rate ratios (PRRs). Age, smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, educational level, household income, and comorbidities were adjusted for in the multivariate model. Results: A U-shaped relationship was detected between BMI and severe LUTS. Compared with a BMI of $23.0-24.9kg/m^2$, the PRR for a BMI < $18.5kg/m^2$ was 1.65 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35 to 2.02), that for a BMI of $18.5-22.9kg/m^2$ was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.44), that for a BMI of $25.0-27.4kg/m^2$ was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.45), that for a BMI of $27.5-29.9kg/m^2$ was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.47), and that for a BMI ${\geq}30.0kg/m^2$ was 1.85 (95% CI, 1.18 to 2.88). Conclusions: This study showed that both high and low BMI were associated with severe LUTS.

Trauma Exposure and Suicidal Ideation among Korean Male Firefighters: Examining the Moderating Roles of Organizational Climate

  • Chi-Yun Back;Dae-Sung Hyun;Sei-Jin Chang;Da-Yee Jeung
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2023
  • Background: This study investigated the relationship between trauma exposure and suicidal ideation. Moreover, this study examines the moderating roles of organizational climate on the association between trauma exposure and suicidal ideation in Korean male firefighters. Methods: A total of 15,104 male firefighters who completed a questionnaire were analyzed. The data were obtained using an online self-administered questionnaire from the Firefighter Research on Enhancement of Safety and Health Study. Poisson regression analysis was performed to determine the effects of trauma exposure on suicidal ideation and the moderating effect of organizational climate. Results: The results showed that 389 firefighters (2.6%) responded that they had experienced suicidal ideation. In the final model, trauma exposure was positively related to suicidal ideation (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.076; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.051-1.103), and organizational climate was negatively associated with suicidal ideation (aRR, 0.772; 95% CI: 0.739-0.806). Additionally, the interaction term (trauma exposure × organizational climate) was related to suicidal ideation (aRR, 1.016; 95% CI: 1.009-1.023). Conclusions: This study suggests that trauma exposure might play a significant role in developing suicidal ideation and that positive organizational climate moderates the negative effects of trauma exposure on suicidal ideation among firefighters. It is necessary to perform a follow-up study of various intervention strategies to maintain a healthy organizational climate or work environment. Such interventions should promote lasting trust within teams, provide social support and belonging, and nurture job value.

Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Models Considering Variations of the Future Volume in Urban Areas (신설 도시부 도로의 장래 교통량 변화를 반영한 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Soo-Beom;Hong, Da-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2005
  • The current traffic accident reduction procedure in economic feasibility study does not consider the characteristics of road and V/C ratio. For solving this problem, this paper suggests methods to be able to evaluate safety of each road in construction and improvement through developing accident Prediction model in reflecting V/C ratio Per road types and traffic characters. In this paper as primary process, model is made by tke object of urban roads. Most of all, factor effecting on accident relying on road types is selected. At this point, selecting criteria chooses data obtained from road planning procedure, traffic volume, existence or non-existence of median barrier, and the number of crossing point, of connecting road. and of traffic signals. As a result of analyzing between each factor and accident. all appear to have relatives at a significant level of statistics. In this research, models are classified as 4-categorized classes according to roads and V/C ratio and each of models draws accident predicting model through Poisson regression along with verifying real situation data. The results of verifying models come out relatively satisfactory estimation against real traffic data. In this paper, traffic accident prediction is possible caused by road's physical characters by developing accident predicting model per road types resulted in V/C ratio and this result is inferred to be used on predicting accident cost when road construction and improvement are performed. Because data using this paper are limited in only province of Jeollabuk-Do, this paper has a limitation of revealing standards of all regions (nation).

A Spatial Statistical Approach to Migration Studies: Exploring the Spatial Heterogeneity in Place-Specific Distance Parameters (인구이동 연구에 대한 공간통계학적 접근: 장소특수적 거리 패러미터의 추출과 공간적 패턴 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Il
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2001
  • This study is concerned with providing a reliable procedure of calibrating a set of places specific distance parameters and with applying it to U.S. inter-State migration flows between 1985 and 1900. It attempts to conform to recent advances in quantitative geography that are characterized by an integration of ESDA(exploratory spatial data analysis) and local statistics. ESDA aims to detect the spatial clustering and heterogeneity by visualizing and exploring spatial patterns. A local statistic is defined as a statistically processed value given to each location as opposed to a global statistic that only captures an average trend across a whole study region. Whereas a global distance parameter estimates an averaged level of the friction of distance, place-specific distance parameters calibrate spatially varying effects of distance. It is presented that a poisson regression with an adequately specified design matrix yields a set of either origin-or destination-specific distance parameters. A case study demonstrates that the proposed model is a reliable device of measuring a spatial dimension of migration, and that place-specific distance parameters are spatially heterogeneous as well as spatially clustered.

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Usability of a smartphone food picture app for assisting 24-hour dietary recall: a pilot study

  • Hongu, Nobuko;Pope, Benjamin T.;Bilgic, Pelin;Orr, Barron J.;Suzuki, Asuka;Kim, Angela Sarah;Merchant, Nirav C.;Roe, Denise J.
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.207-212
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    • 2015
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Recaller app was developed to help individuals record their food intakes. This pilot study evaluated the usability of this new food picture application (app), which operates on a smartphone with an embedded camera and Internet capability. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Adults aged 19 to 28 years (23 males and 22 females) were assigned to use the Recaller app on six designated, nonconsecutive days in order to capture an image of each meal and snack before and after eating. The images were automatically time-stamped and uploaded by the app to the Recaller website. A trained nutritionist administered a 24-hour dietary recall interview 1 day after food images were taken. Participants' opinions of the Recaller app and its usability were determined by a follow-up survey. As an evaluation indicator of usability, the number of images taken was analyzed and multivariate Poisson regression used to model the factors determining the number of images sent. RESULTS: A total of 3,315 food images were uploaded throughout the study period. The median number of images taken per day was nine for males and 13 for females. The survey showed that the Recaller app was easy to use, and 50% of the participants would consider using the app daily. Predictors of a higher number of images were as follows: greater interval (hours) between the first and last food images sent, weekend, and female. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this pilot study provide valuable information for understanding the usability of the Recaller smartphone food picture app as well as other similarly designed apps. This study provides a model for assisting nutrition educators in their collection of food intake information by using tools available on smartphones. This innovative approach has the potential to improve recall of foods eaten and monitoring of dietary intake in nutritional studies.

Potential influence of κ-casein and β-lactoglobulin genes in genetic association studies of milk quality traits

  • Zepeda-Batista, Jose Luis;Saavedra-Jimenez, Luis Antonio;Ruiz-Flores, Agustin;Nunez-Dominguez, Rafael;Ramirez-Valverde, Rodolfo
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.1684-1688
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    • 2017
  • Objective: From a review of published information on genetic association studies, a meta-analysis was conducted to determine the influence of the genes ${\kappa}-casein$ (CSN3) and ${\beta}-lactoglobulin$ (LGB) on milk yield traits in Holstein, Jersey, Brown Swiss, and Fleckvieh. Methods: The GLIMMIX procedure was used to analyze milk production and percentage of protein and fat in milk. Models included the main effects and all their possible two-way interactions; not estimable effects and non-significant (p>0.05) two-way interactions were dropped from the models. The three traits analyzed used Poisson distribution and a log link function and were determined with the Interactive Data Analysis of SAS software. Least square means and multiple mean comparisons were obtained and performed for significant main effects and their interactions (p<0.0255). Results: Interaction of breed by gene showed that Holstein and Fleckvieh were the breeds on which CSN3 ($6.01%{\pm}0.19%$ and $5.98%{\pm}0.22%$), and LGB ($6.02%{\pm}0.19%$ and $5.70%{\pm}0.22%$) have the greatest influence. Interaction of breed by genotype nested in the analyzed gene indicated that Holstein and Jersey showed greater influence of the CSN3 AA genotype, $6.04%{\pm}0.22%$ and $5.59%{\pm}0.31%$ than the other genotypes, while LGB AA genotype had the largest influence on the traits analyzed, $6.05%{\pm}0.20%$ and $5.60%{\pm}0.19%$, respectively. Furthermore, interaction of type of statistical model by genotype nested in the analyzed gene indicated that CSN3 and LGB genes had similar behavior, maintaining a difference of more than 7% across analyzed genotypes. These results could indicate that both Holstein and Jersey have had lower substitution allele effect in selection programs that include CSN3 and LGB genes than Brown Swiss and Fleckvieh. Conclusion: Breed determined which genotypes had the greatest association with analyzed traits. The mixed model based in Bayesian or Ridge Regression was the best alternative to analyze CSN3 and LGB gene effects on milk yield and protein and fat percentages.

Development of Trip Generation Models for Shared E-Scooter by Service Areas Clustered by Level of Trip Density (서비스 구역 수준별 공유 전동킥보드 통행발생모형 개발)

  • Tai-jin Song;Kyuhyuk Kim;Changhun Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.124-140
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    • 2023
  • The rapid growth in shared E-scooters worldwide has led to many studies on the topic. The results of these studies are still in the early stages, and the main factors affecting trips are being identified. In particular, the development of trip-generation models is very important for transportation planning, and a new transportation mode for developing the models for shared E-scooters is lacking both domestically and internationally. This study aims to develop a trip generation model for shared E-scooters using significant variables by thoroughly reviewing previous studies. The trip characteristics of major service areas and other areas may differ owing to the trip characteristics of the mode. The trip generation models were developed based on the service trip density by dividing the areas by service level. The factors affecting shared E-scooter trips in major service areas included the presence of universities, closeness centrality, and cultural areas, while factors affecting the trips in minor service areas included the presence of universities, betweenness centrality, and trip distance. The developed models provide basic information that can be used to establish transport policies for introducing shared E-scooters in cities in the future.

Characteristics of Geometric Conditions Affecting Freeway Traffic Safety at Nighttime, Sunrise, and Sunset (야간 및 일출몰 시간대 교통안전에 영향을 미치는 고속도로 기하구조 특성분석)

  • Hong, Sung-Min;Kim, Joon-Ki;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2012
  • Driver's capability of identifying the change in freeway alignments and environments is one of important factors associated with traffic safety on freeways. In particular, driver's visibility and recognition capability are highly dependent on the altitude of the sun by sunset, sunrise, and nighttime. The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of geometric conditions affecting crash occurrences at sunset, sunrise, and nighttime. Poisson and negative binomial regressions were adopted to predict freeway crash frequency in this study. Freeway crash data during 2007~2010 were used for developing the crash frequency models. A set of variables representing the characteristics of geometric conditions were identified as significant ones affecting crash occurrences. The results of this study would be useful in deriving effective countermeasures for preventing traffic crashes that mainly occur at sunset, sunrise, and nighttime on freeways.