• Title/Summary/Keyword: Poisson process.

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Hydro-mechanical coupling behaviors in the failure process of pre-cracked sandstone

  • Li, Tingchun;Du, Yiteng;Zhu, Qingwen;Ren, Yande;Zhang, Hao;Ran, Jinlin
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.573-588
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    • 2021
  • The interaction of cracks and water significantly affects the fracture mechanism of rocks. In this study, laboratory tests were conducted using sandstone samples containing a single fissure to explore the hydro-mechanical behaviors in the failure process of pre-cracked rocks. The internal crack characteristics were also analyzed using X-ray CT scanning. The results show that the confining pressure has the greatest effect on the mechanical properties (e.g., strengths, elastic modulus, and Poisson's ratio), followed by the fissure inclination and water pressure. At a lower fissure inclination, the confining pressure may control the type main cracks that form, and an increase in the water pressure increases the number of anti-wing cracks and the length of wing cracks and branch cracks. However, the fracture behaviors of samples with a higher fissure inclination are only slightly affected by the confining pressures and water pressures. The effect of fissure inclination on the internal crack area is reduced with the propagation from the fissure tips to the sample ends. The fissure inclination mainly affects the value of permeability but not affect the trend. The impact of pre-existing fissure on permeability is smaller than that of confining pressure and water pressure.

Estimation of Time-dependent Damage Paths of Armors of Rubble-mound Breakwaters using Stochastic Processes (추계학적 확률과정을 이용한 경사제 피복재의 시간에 따른 피해 경로 추정)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.246-257
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    • 2015
  • The progressive degradation paths of structures have quantitatively been tracked by using stochastic processes, such as Wiener process, gamma process and compound Poisson process, in order to consider both the sampling uncertainty due to the usual lack of damage data and the temporal uncertainty associated with the deterioration evolution. Several important features of stochastic processes which should carefully be considered in application of the stochastic processes to practical problems have been figured out through assessing cumulative damage and lifetime distribution as a function of time. Especially, the Wiener process and the gamma process have straightforwardly been applied to armors of rubble-mound breakwaters by the aid of a sample path method based on Melby's formula which can estimate cumulative damage levels of armors over time. The sample path method have been developed to calibrate the related-parameters required in the stochastic modelling of armors of rubble-mound breakwaters. From the analyses, it is found that cumulative damage levels of armors have surely been saturated with time. Also, the exponent of power law in time, that plays a significant role in predicting the cumulative damage levels over time, can easily be determined, which makes the stochastic models possible to track the cumulative damage levels of armors of rubble-mound breakwaters over time. Finally, failure probabilities with respect to various critical limits have been analyzed throughout its anticipated service life.

The Effects of Sentiment and Readability on Useful Votes for Customer Reviews with Count Type Review Usefulness Index (온라인 리뷰의 감성과 독해 용이성이 리뷰 유용성에 미치는 영향: 가산형 리뷰 유용성 정보 활용)

  • Cruz, Ruth Angelie;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.43-61
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    • 2016
  • Customer reviews help potential customers make purchasing decisions. However, the prevalence of reviews on websites push the customer to sift through them and change the focus from a mere search to identifying which of the available reviews are valuable and useful for the purchasing decision at hand. To identify useful reviews, websites have developed different mechanisms to give customers options when evaluating existing reviews. Websites allow users to rate the usefulness of a customer review as helpful or not. Amazon.com uses a ratio-type helpfulness, while Yelp.com uses a count-type usefulness index. This usefulness index provides helpful reviews to future potential purchasers. This study investigated the effects of sentiment and readability on useful votes for customer reviews. Similar studies on the relationship between sentiment and readability have focused on the ratio-type usefulness index utilized by websites such as Amazon.com. In this study, Yelp.com's count-type usefulness index for restaurant reviews was used to investigate the relationship between sentiment/readability and usefulness votes. Yelp.com's online customer reviews for stores in the beverage and food categories were used for the analysis. In total, 170,294 reviews containing information on a store's reputation and popularity were used. The control variables were the review length, store reputation, and popularity; the independent variables were the sentiment and readability, while the dependent variable was the number of helpful votes. The review rating is the moderating variable for the review sentiment and readability. The length is the number of characters in a review. The popularity is the number of reviews for a store, and the reputation is the general average rating of all reviews for a store. The readability of a review was calculated with the Coleman-Liau index. The sentiment is a positivity score for the review as calculated by SentiWordNet. The review rating is a preference score selected from 1 to 5 (stars) by the review author. The dependent variable (i.e., usefulness votes) used in this study is a count variable. Therefore, the Poisson regression model, which is commonly used to account for the discrete and nonnegative nature of count data, was applied in the analyses. The increase in helpful votes was assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Because the Poisson model assumes an equal mean and variance and the data were over-dispersed, a negative binomial distribution model that allows for over-dispersion of the count variable was used for the estimation. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to model count variables with excessive zeros and over-dispersed count outcome variables. With this model, the excess zeros were assumed to be generated through a separate process from the count values and therefore should be modeled as independently as possible. The results showed that positive sentiment had a negative effect on gaining useful votes for positive reviews but no significant effect on negative reviews. Poor readability had a negative effect on gaining useful votes and was not moderated by the review star ratings. These findings yield considerable managerial implications. The results are helpful for online websites when analyzing their review guidelines and identifying useful reviews for their business. Based on this study, positive reviews are not necessarily helpful; therefore, restaurants should consider which type of positive review is helpful for their business. Second, this study is beneficial for businesses and website designers in creating review mechanisms to know which type of reviews to highlight on their websites and which type of reviews can be beneficial to the business. Moreover, this study highlights the review systems employed by websites to allow their customers to post rating reviews.

A study of epidemic model using SEIR model (SEIR 모형을 이용한 전염병 모형 예측 연구)

  • Do, Mijin;Kim, Jongtae;Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.297-307
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    • 2017
  • The epidemic model is used to model the spread of disease and to control the disease. In this research, we utilize SEIR model which is one of applications the SIR model that incorporates Exposed step to the model. The SEIR model assumes that a people in the susceptible contacted infected moves to the exposed period. After staying in the period, the infectee tends to sequentially proceed to the status of infected, recovered, and removed. This type of infection can be used for research in cases where there is a latency period after infectious disease. In this research, we collected respiratory infectious disease data for the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERSCoV). Assuming that the spread of disease follows a stochastic process rather than a deterministic one, we utilized the Poisson process for the variation of infection and applied epidemic model to the stochastic chemical reaction model. Using observed pandemic data, we estimated three parameters in the SIER model; exposed rate, transmission rate, and recovery rate. After estimating the model, we applied the fitted model to the explanation of spread disease. Additionally, we include a process for generating the Exposed trajectory during the model estimation process due to the lack of the information of exact trajectory of Exposed.

The Comparative Study of NHPP Software Reliability Model Based on Exponential and Inverse Exponential Distribution (지수 및 역지수 분포를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 무한고장 신뢰도 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, we were proposed the reliability model with the exponential and inverse exponential distribution, which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, were employed. Analysis of failure, using real data set for the sake of proposing the exponential and inverse exponential distribution, was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the exponential and inverse exponential distribution property. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the inverse exponential distribution model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 80% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

Developing the Accurate Method of Test Data Assessment with Changing Reliability Growth Rate and the Effect Evaluation for Complex and Repairable Products

  • So, Young-Kug;Ryu, Byeong-Jin
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.90-100
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    • 2015
  • Reliability growth rate (or reliability growth curve slope) have the two cases of trend as a constant or changing one during the reliability growth testing. The changing case is very common situation. The reasons of reliability growth rate changing are that the failures to follow the NHPP (None-Homogeneous Poisson Process), and the solutions implemented during test to break out other problems or not to take out all of the root cause permanently. If the changing were big, the "Goodness of Fit (GOF)" of reliability growth curve to test data would be very low and then reduce the accuracy of assessing result with test data. In this research, we are using Duane model and AMSAA model for assessing test data and projecting the reliability level of complex and repairable system as like construction equipment and vehicle. In case of no changing in reliability growth rate, it is reasonable for reliability engineer to implement the original Duane model (1964) and Crow-AMSAA model (1975) for the assessment and projection activity. However, in case of reliability growth rate changing, it is necessary to find the method to increase the "GOF" of reliability growth curves to test data. To increase GOF of reliability growth curves, it is necessary to find the proper parameter calculation method of interesting reliability growth models that are applicable to the situation of reliability growth rate changing. Since the Duane and AMSAA models have a characteristic to get more strong influence from the initial test (or failure) data than the latest one, the both models have a limitation to contain the latest test data information that is more important and better to assess test data in view of accuracy, especially when the reliability growth rate changing. The main objective of this research is to find the parameter calculation method to reflect the latest test data in the case of reliability growth rate changing. According to my experience in vehicle and construction equipment developments over 18 years, over the 90% in the total development cases are with such changing during the developing test. The objective of this research was to develop the newly assessing method and the process for GOF level increasing in case of reliability growth rate changing that would contribute to achieve more accurate assessing and projecting result. We also developed the new evaluation method for GOF that are applicable to the both models as Duane and AMSAA, so it is possible to compare it between models and check the effectiveness of new parameter calculation methods in any interesting situation. These research results can reduce the decision error for development process and business control with the accurately assessing and projecting result.

The Comparative Study of NHPP Software Reliability Model Based on Log and Exponential Power Intensity Function (로그 및 지수파우어 강도함수를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 무한고장 신뢰도 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Yang, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.445-452
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    • 2015
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, proposes the reliability model with log and power intensity function (log linear, log power and exponential power), which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure, using real data set for the sake of proposing log and power intensity function, was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with log and power intensity function. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the log type model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 70% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, software developers have to consider the growth model by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

The Study for Performance Analysis of Software Reliability Model using Fault Detection Rate based on Logarithmic and Exponential Type (로그 및 지수형 결함 발생률에 따른 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 신뢰도 성능분석 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.306-311
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, reliability software cost model considering logarithmic and exponential fault detection rate based on observations from the process of software product testing was studied. Adding new fault probability using the Goel-Okumoto model that is widely used in the field of reliability problems presented. When correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model. For analysis of software reliability model considering the time-dependent fault detection rate, the parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of inter-failure time data was made. The logarithmic and exponential fault detection model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 80% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

Analysis on Operation of Anti-Virus Systems with Real-Time Scan and Batch Scan (실시간스캔과 배치스캔을 갖춘 안티바이러스시스템의 운영 분석)

  • Yang, Won Seok;Kim, Tae-Sung
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.38B no.11
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    • pp.861-869
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    • 2013
  • We consider an information system where viruses arrive according to a Poisson process with rate ${\lambda}$. The information system has two types of anti-virus operation policies including 'real-time scan' and 'batch scan.' In the real-time scan policy, a virus is assumed to be scanned immediately after its arrival. Consequently, the real-time scan policy assumes infinite number of anti-viruses. We assume that the time for scanning and curing a virus follows a general distribution. In the batch scan policy, a system manager operates an anti-virus every deterministic time interval and scan and cure all the viruses remaining in the system simultaneously. In this paper we suggest a probability model for the operation of anti-virus software. We derive a condition under which the operating policy is achieved. Some numerical examples with various cost structure are given to illustrate the results.

The Optimal Inventory Modeling and The Cost Sensitivity Analysis with Reducing Inventory Investment (재고투자 감축에 따른 재고모형과 비용 감도 분석)

  • Kwon, Hee-Chul
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2013
  • The business cycle during a recession leads to negative effects on raising funds and operations management of company. In particular, the company with many inventories in the recession causes liquidity problem. Which leads to frustration in the competitive strategy management. In this case the company experiencing cash or liquidity problems attempts to reduce its investment in inventory. However, reducing inventory investment makes problems to increase inventory operating costs. This paper presents sensitivity of total cost compared to the size for reducing inventory investment. This will guarantee the relevance of the reducing inventory investment. Optimal Inventory levels also may be required to be less than the optimal levels without reduction on inventory investments.