• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제10D권5호
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• pp.805-812
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• 2003

본 논문에서는 비동질 포아송 과정(NHPP)에 기초한 소프트웨어 에러 현상에 대한 신뢰도 모형을 고려하고 사전정보(Prior information)를 이용한 베이지안 추론을 시행하였다. 고장 패턴은 NHPP에 대한 강도함수와 평균값 함수로서 나타낼 수 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 대수형 포아송 실행시간 모형(Logarithmic Poisson model), Crow 모형 그리고 Rayleigh 모형에 대하여 베이지안 모수 추정방법을 적용하였다. 효율적 모형을 위하여 이들 모형에 관한 모형선택을 편차자승합(SSE)의 합을 이용하여 시행하였고 모수의 추정을 위해서 마코브체인 몬테카를로(MCMC) 기법중에 하나인 깁스샘플링(Gibbs sampling)과 메트로폴리스 알고리즘을 이용한 근사추정 기법이 사용되었다. 수치적인 예에서는 Musa의 T1 자료를 이용하여 모수 및 신뢰도를 추정한 수치 결과론 나열하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.87-96
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• 1986

Sequential estimation of parameters in a compound Poisson process whose jump sizes are one-parameter exponential class random variables is discussed. Cramer-Rao type information inequality is used as an efficiency cirterion. Unbiased estimators for certain parametric functions whose variance attain the lower bound are all characterized with the corresponding sampling plans.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.725-733
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• 2005

A system subject to random shocks is considered. The shocks arrive according to a Poisson process and the amount of each shock is exponentially distributed. In this paper, a periodic inspection policy for the system is compared with a random inspection policy. After assigning several maintenance costs to the system, we calculate and compare the long-run average costs per unit time under two policies.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제29권1_2호
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• pp.469-474
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• 2011

In a M/G/I queue where the server alternates between busy and idle periods, we assume that firstly customers arrive at the system according to a Poisson process and the arrival process and customer service times are mutually independent, secondly the system has infinite waiting room, thirdly the server utilization is less than 1 and the system has reached a steady state. With these assumptions, we analyze waiting times on the systems where some vacation policies are considered.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.509-518
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• 2002

This paper is concerned with semiparametric Bayesian analysis of the proportional intensity regression model of the Poisson process for multiple event time data. A nonparametric prior distribution is put on the baseline cumulative intensity function and a usual parametric prior distribution is given to the regression parameter. Also we allow heterogeneity among the intensity processes in different subjects by using unobserved random frailty components. Gibbs sampling approach with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to explore the posterior distributions. Finally, the results are applied to a real data set.

• 한국정보통신설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신설비학회 2005년도 하계학술대회
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• pp.109-112
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• 2005

In this thesis, we recommend the method for VOD service traffic modeling. By the analysis of service traffic, we verify that the process of VOD service is the POISSON process. So it is important to determine the probability of the user's existence in the system. But, because it is difficult to measure, we recommend proper using of arrival rate and service rate.

• 한국경영공학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.159-164
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• 2018

Human-machine serial systems must be normal in both systems. Though the failure of machine is irreducible by itself, the human errors are of recurring type. When the human performance is described quantitatively, non-homogeneous Poisson Process model of human errors can be developed. And the model parameters can be estimated by maximum likelihood estimation and numerical analysis method. System reliability is obtained by multiplying machine reliability by human reliability.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제22권49호
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• pp.23-31
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• 1999

Bayesian approach using nonhomogeneous Poisson process is considered for modelling software reliability problem. The usefulness of the iterative sampling-based method increases greatly as the dimension of a problem increases. Maximum likelihood estimator and Gibbs estimator are derived. Model selection based on a predictive likelihood is studied. A numerical example is given.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.159-176
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• 1993

The utilization of outpatient care services involves two steps of sequential decisions. The first step decision is about whether to initiate the utilization and the second one is about how many more visits to make after the initiation. Presumably, the initiation decision is largely made by the patient and his or her family, while the number of additional visits is decided under a strong influence of the physician. Implication is that the analysis of the outpatient care utilization requires to specify each of the two decisions underlying the utilization as a distinct stochastic process. This paper is concerned with the number of physician visits, which is, by definition, a discrete variable that can take only non-negative integer values. Since the initial visit is considered in the analysis of whether or not having made any physician visit, the focus on the number of visits made in addition to the initial one must be enough. The number of additional visits, being a kind of count data, could be assumed to exhibit a Poisson distribution. However, it is likely that the distribution is over dispersed since the number of physician visits tends to cluster around a few values but still vary widely. A recently reported study of outpatient care utilization employed an analysis based upon the assumption of a negative binomial distribution which is a type of overdispersed Poisson distribution. But there is an indication that the use of Poisson distribution making adjustments for over-dispersion results in less loss of efficiency in parameter estimation compared to the use of a certain type of distribution like a negative binomial distribution. An analysis of the data for outpatient care utilization was performed focusing on an assessment of appropriateness of available techniques. The data used in the analysis were collected by a community survey in Hwachon Gun, Kangwon Do in 1990. It was observed that a Poisson regression with adjustments for over-dispersion is superior to either an ordinary regression or a Poisson regression without adjustments oor over-dispersion. In conclusion, it seems the most approprite to assume that the number of physician visits made in addition to the initial visist exhibits an overdispersed Poisson distribution when outpatient care utilization is studied based upon a model which embodies the two-part character of the decision process uderlying the utilization.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.1635-1656
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• 2023

In Bayesian multi-target tracking, the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter is a state-of-the-art filter based on the methodology of random finite set which is a conjugate prior composed of Poisson point process (PPP) and multi-Bernoulli mixture (MBM). In order to improve the random finite set-based filter utilized in multi-target tracking of sensor scanning, this paper introduces the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture filter into time-matching Bayesian filtering framework and derive a tractable and principled method, namely: the time-matching Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (TM-PMBM) filter. We also provide the Gaussian mixture implementation of the TM-PMBM filter for linear-Gaussian dynamic and measurement models. Subsequently, we compare the performance of the TM-PMBM filter with other RFS filters based on time-matching method with different birth models under directional continuous scanning and out-of-order discontinuous scanning. The results of simulation demonstrate that the proposed filter not only can effectively reduce the influence of sampling time diversity, but also improve the estimated accuracy of target state along with cardinality.