• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
• /
• v.10D no.5
• /
• pp.805-812
• /
• 2003

This paper presents a stochastic model for the software failure phenomenon based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) and performs Bayesian inference using prior information. The failure process is analyzed to develop a suitable mean value function for the NHPP; expressions are given for several performance measure. The parametric inferences of the model using Logarithmic Poisson model, Crow model and Rayleigh model is discussed. Bayesian computation and model selection using the sum of squared errors. The numerical results of this models are applied to real software failure data. Tools of parameter inference was used method of Gibbs sampling and Metropolis algorithm. The numerical example by T1 data (Musa) was illustrated.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.87-96
• /
• 1986

Sequential estimation of parameters in a compound Poisson process whose jump sizes are one-parameter exponential class random variables is discussed. Cramer-Rao type information inequality is used as an efficiency cirterion. Unbiased estimators for certain parametric functions whose variance attain the lower bound are all characterized with the corresponding sampling plans.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.16 no.4
• /
• pp.725-733
• /
• 2005

A system subject to random shocks is considered. The shocks arrive according to a Poisson process and the amount of each shock is exponentially distributed. In this paper, a periodic inspection policy for the system is compared with a random inspection policy. After assigning several maintenance costs to the system, we calculate and compare the long-run average costs per unit time under two policies.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
• /
• v.29 no.1_2
• /
• pp.469-474
• /
• 2011

In a M/G/I queue where the server alternates between busy and idle periods, we assume that firstly customers arrive at the system according to a Poisson process and the arrival process and customer service times are mutually independent, secondly the system has infinite waiting room, thirdly the server utilization is less than 1 and the system has reached a steady state. With these assumptions, we analyze waiting times on the systems where some vacation policies are considered.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.31 no.4
• /
• pp.509-518
• /
• 2002

This paper is concerned with semiparametric Bayesian analysis of the proportional intensity regression model of the Poisson process for multiple event time data. A nonparametric prior distribution is put on the baseline cumulative intensity function and a usual parametric prior distribution is given to the regression parameter. Also we allow heterogeneity among the intensity processes in different subjects by using unobserved random frailty components. Gibbs sampling approach with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to explore the posterior distributions. Finally, the results are applied to a real data set.

• 한국정보통신설비학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2005.08a
• /
• pp.109-112
• /
• 2005

In this thesis, we recommend the method for VOD service traffic modeling. By the analysis of service traffic, we verify that the process of VOD service is the POISSON process. So it is important to determine the probability of the user's existence in the system. But, because it is difficult to measure, we recommend proper using of arrival rate and service rate.

• Journal of the Korea Management Engineers Society
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.159-164
• /
• 2018

Human-machine serial systems must be normal in both systems. Though the failure of machine is irreducible by itself, the human errors are of recurring type. When the human performance is described quantitatively, non-homogeneous Poisson Process model of human errors can be developed. And the model parameters can be estimated by maximum likelihood estimation and numerical analysis method. System reliability is obtained by multiplying machine reliability by human reliability.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.22 no.49
• /
• pp.23-31
• /
• 1999

Bayesian approach using nonhomogeneous Poisson process is considered for modelling software reliability problem. The usefulness of the iterative sampling-based method increases greatly as the dimension of a problem increases. Maximum likelihood estimator and Gibbs estimator are derived. Model selection based on a predictive likelihood is studied. A numerical example is given.

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.3 no.2
• /
• pp.159-176
• /
• 1993

The utilization of outpatient care services involves two steps of sequential decisions. The first step decision is about whether to initiate the utilization and the second one is about how many more visits to make after the initiation. Presumably, the initiation decision is largely made by the patient and his or her family, while the number of additional visits is decided under a strong influence of the physician. Implication is that the analysis of the outpatient care utilization requires to specify each of the two decisions underlying the utilization as a distinct stochastic process. This paper is concerned with the number of physician visits, which is, by definition, a discrete variable that can take only non-negative integer values. Since the initial visit is considered in the analysis of whether or not having made any physician visit, the focus on the number of visits made in addition to the initial one must be enough. The number of additional visits, being a kind of count data, could be assumed to exhibit a Poisson distribution. However, it is likely that the distribution is over dispersed since the number of physician visits tends to cluster around a few values but still vary widely. A recently reported study of outpatient care utilization employed an analysis based upon the assumption of a negative binomial distribution which is a type of overdispersed Poisson distribution. But there is an indication that the use of Poisson distribution making adjustments for over-dispersion results in less loss of efficiency in parameter estimation compared to the use of a certain type of distribution like a negative binomial distribution. An analysis of the data for outpatient care utilization was performed focusing on an assessment of appropriateness of available techniques. The data used in the analysis were collected by a community survey in Hwachon Gun, Kangwon Do in 1990. It was observed that a Poisson regression with adjustments for over-dispersion is superior to either an ordinary regression or a Poisson regression without adjustments oor over-dispersion. In conclusion, it seems the most approprite to assume that the number of physician visits made in addition to the initial visist exhibits an overdispersed Poisson distribution when outpatient care utilization is studied based upon a model which embodies the two-part character of the decision process uderlying the utilization.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.17 no.6
• /
• pp.1635-1656
• /
• 2023

In Bayesian multi-target tracking, the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter is a state-of-the-art filter based on the methodology of random finite set which is a conjugate prior composed of Poisson point process (PPP) and multi-Bernoulli mixture (MBM). In order to improve the random finite set-based filter utilized in multi-target tracking of sensor scanning, this paper introduces the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture filter into time-matching Bayesian filtering framework and derive a tractable and principled method, namely: the time-matching Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (TM-PMBM) filter. We also provide the Gaussian mixture implementation of the TM-PMBM filter for linear-Gaussian dynamic and measurement models. Subsequently, we compare the performance of the TM-PMBM filter with other RFS filters based on time-matching method with different birth models under directional continuous scanning and out-of-order discontinuous scanning. The results of simulation demonstrate that the proposed filter not only can effectively reduce the influence of sampling time diversity, but also improve the estimated accuracy of target state along with cardinality.