Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
/
v.17
no.2
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pp.87-95
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2016
This study examined the characteristics of the hourly demand of city gas in Korea and proposed multiple regression models to obtain precise estimates of the hourly demand of city gas. Forecasting the hourly demand of city gas with accuracy is essential in terms of safety and cost. If underestimated, the pipeline pressure needs to be increased sharply to meet the demand, when safety matters. In the opposite case, unnecessary inventory and operation costs are incurred. Data analysis showed that the hourly demand of city gas has a very high autocorrelation and that the 24-hour demand pattern of a day follows the previous 24-hour demand pattern of the same day. That is, there is a weekly cycle pattern. In addition, some conditions that temperature affects the hourly demand level were found. That is, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the hourly demand and temperature is about 0.853 on average, while the absolute value of the correlation coefficient on a specific day improves to 0.861 at worst and 0.965 at best. Based on this analysis, this paper proposes a multiple regression model incorporating the hourly demand ahead of 24 hours and the hourly demand ahead of 168 hours, and another multiple regression model with temperature as an additional independent variable. To show the performance of the proposed models, computational experiments were carried out using real data of the domestic city gas demand from 2009 to 2013. The test results showed that the first regression model exhibits a forecasting accuracy of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) around 4.5% over the past five years from 2009 to 2013, while the second regression model exhibits 5.13% of MAPE for the same period.
Kim, J. H.;Choi, Y.;Kim, J. Y.;Oh, C. H.;Kim, S. E.;Choe, Y. S.;Lee, K. H.;Joo, K. S.;Kim, B. T.
Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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v.20
no.6
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pp.515-521
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1999
Scintillator crystal is an important part and detcrmines performance characteristics of the gamma camera. We investigated the offects of scintillation crystal surface treatment on gamma camera imaging. Nal(TI) and Csl(Tl) scintillators. 20 mm diameter and 10 mm thickness, applied with two different surface treatments, white and black reflcetors, were applied to Nal(Tl) and Csl(Ti). The optical properties of generated scintillation light were evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation method and by actual measurement using a position sensitive photomultiplier tube (PSPMT). We measured sensitivity, energy resolution and spatial resolution of gamma camera with the various scintillators coupled to a PSPMT. In the simulation. Nal(Tl)-white prosented the best sensitivity. In the measurements, the sensitivities and the intrinsic spatial resolutions of Nal(Tl)-white, Nal(Tl)-black. CsI(Tl)-white, CsI(Tl)-black were 2920, 2322, 1754, 1401 cps/$\mu$ci and 5.2, 4.5, 7.0, 6.3 mm FWHM. respectively. Their intrinsic energy resolutions were mesured 12.5, 23.5, 20.5, 33.3% FWHM at 140 keV Tc-99m. In this study, we investigated the offects of a side surface treatment of the scintillator on the gamma camera imaging. Simulation and measurement prescnted similat trends. Based on the results, we concluded that the surface of th NaI(Tl)seintillator must be treated by absorptive materials in order to develop the gamma camera having good spatial resolution.
Fresh edible sweet corns demand relatively short period to harvest fresh ears, which can allow farmers to make a choice sweet corns for various cropping systems. For this reason, we were to find the optimum planting date of late-planted sweet corns to sell fresh ears in the autumn linked to cropping system with winter crops, investigating yield and properties of marketable fresh ears and growth traits of sweet corns (cv. 'Godangok' and cv. 'Guseulok') depending on planting dates such as 10 July, 20 July, and 30 July in Suwon 2012 and 2013, respectively. The 20 July-planted sweet corns showed the most fresh ear yield. However, the 10 July-planted and the 30 July-planted had 32% less yield caused by consecutive rainfall from 10 July through 20 July, and 15% less yield due to low air temperature during ripening than the 20 July-planted, respectively. The 10 and 20 July-planted sweet corns had average 140g of a fresh ear weight and 15% heavier ear than the 30 July-planted. For the July-planted sweet corns, silking days after planting ($r=-0.80^{**}$), and harvesting days after silking ($r=-0.97^{**}$) and planting ($r=-0.91^{**}$) were highly negatively correlated with daily mean air temperature during the period, resulting in it takes 1,100 growing degree days (GDD) to harvest fresh ears from the July-planted sweet corns. The fresh ears of the 20 July-planted sweet corns are able to be harvested by early October. Therefore it will be a good choice for the cropping system based on winter vegetable cash crops such as temperate garlic and onion with medium or late maturity. Among three planting dates 20 July-planted sweet corns had the best field performance in every year considering fresh ear yield, ear size, and stability to grow.
The purpose this study is to discuss effects of product design innovations on small and medium enterprises' business accomplishments and further on raising those enterprises' international competitiveness through reviewing previous studies that quantitatively analyzed economic and technological performance and ripple effects of products developed through design innovations. To determine how much design innovations are influential and contributing to small and medium enterprises' international competitiveness, then, the researcher took most advantage of statistical data from quantitative analyses of business accomplishments brought by design innovation development and investment, or economic effects like sales and exports increase. Results of the study can be summarized as follows. First, product design innovations by small and medium enterprises directly contribute to creating plenty of technological and economical achievements, for example, improved product quality, increased product profitability, the effect of product differentiation, improved price competitiveness and increased business sales and exports. Second, technological and economic achievements brought by product design innovations can directly lead to ripple effects like accumulating related knowledge and know-hows, strengthening the competitiveness of products, improving corporate image, increasing business sales and net profit, and meeting many different consumer requirements. Third, technological and economic achievements and ripple effects brought by product design innovations all become very important factors and sources on which small and medium enterprises strengthen their international competitiveness in world markets and maintain their sustainable competitive advantage. Fourth, business accomplishments or economic effects brought by design innovations can be quantitatively measured and analyzed with statistical data. Additional data from the moves can help understand and express the very value or nature of design in a quantitative way. This study is significant in that its results was made based on statistical data from empirical, objective measurements and quantification. The researcher hopes that the study contributes to promoting design innovations by small and medium enterprises and helps CEOs of those businesses better understand the very value and nature of design.
Since 11 September 2001, warnings of risk in the nexus of terrorism and nuclear weapons and materials which poses one of the gravest threats to the international community have continued. The purpose of this study is to analyze the aim, principles, characteristics, activities, impediments to progress and developmental recommendation of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism(GICNT). In addition, it suggests implications of the GICNT for the ROK policy. International community will need a comprehensive strategy with four key elements to accomplish the GICNT: (1) securing and reducing nuclear stockpiles around the world, (2) countering terrorist nuclear plots, (3) preventing and deterring state transfers of nuclear weapons or materials to terrorists, (4) interdicting nuclear smuggling. Moreover, other steps should be taken to build the needed sense of urgency, including: (1) analysis and assessment through joint threat briefing for real nuclear threat possibility, (2) nuclear terrorism exercises, (3) fast-paced nuclear security reviews, (4) realistic testing of nuclear security performance to defeat insider or outsider threats, (5) preparing shared database of threats and incidents. As for the ROK, main concerns are transfer of North Korea's nuclear weapons, materials and technology to international terror groups and attacks on nuclear facilities and uses of nuclear devices. As the 5th nuclear country, the ROK has strengthened systems of physical protection and nuclear counterterrorism based on the international conventions. In order to comprehensive and effective prevention of nuclear terrorism, the ROK has to strengthen nuclear detection instruments and mobile radiation monitoring system in airports, ports, road networks, and national critical infrastructures. Furthermore, it has to draw up effective crisis management manual and prepare nuclear counterterrorism exercises and operational postures. The fundamental key to the prevention, detection and response to nuclear terrorism which leads to catastrophic impacts is to establish not only domestic law, institution and systems, but also strengthen international cooperation.
A three-layer, feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) with sixteen input neurons, three hidden neurons, and one output neuron was developed to identify the presence of infectious bronchitis (IB) infection as early as possible in laying hen flocks. Retrospective data from flocks that enrolled IB surveillance program between May 2003 and November 2005 were used to build the ANN. Data set of 86 flocks was divided randomly into two sets: 77 cases for training set and 9 cases for testing set. Input factors were 16 epidemiological findings including characteristics of the layer house, management practice, flock size, and the output was either presence or absence of IB. ANN was trained using training set with a back-propagation algorithm and test set was used to determine the network's capability to predict outcomes that it has never seen. Diagnostic performance of the trained network was evaluated by constructing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with the area under the curve (AUC), which were also used to determine the best positivity criterion for the model. Several different ANNs with different structures were created. The best-fitted trained network, IBV_D1, was able to predict IB in 73 cases out of 77 (diagnostic accuracy 94.8%) in the training set. Sensitivity and specificity of the trained neural network was 95.5% (42/44, 95% CI, 84.5-99.4) and 93.9% (31/33, 95% CI, 79.8-99.3), respectively. For testing set, AVC of the ROC curve for the IBV_D1 network was 0.948 (SE=0.086, 95% CI 0.592-0.961) in recognizing IB infection status accurately. At a criterion of 0.7149, the diagnostic accuracy was the highest with a 88.9% with the highest sensitivity of 100%. With this value of sensitivity and specificity together with assumed 44% of IB prevalence, IBV_D1 network showed a PPV of 80% and an NPV of 100%. Based on these findings, the authors conclude that neural network can be successfully applied to the development of a screening model for identifying IB infection in laying hen flocks.
Disease forecasting in Korea was first studied in the Department of Fundamental Research, in the Central Agricultural Technology Institute in Suwon in 1947, where the dispersal of air-borne conidia of blast and brown spot pathogens in rice was examined. Disease forecasting system in Korea is operated based on information obtained from 200 main forecasting plots scattered around country (rice 150, economic crops 50) and 1,403 supplementary observational plots (rice 1,050, others 353) maintained by Korean government. Total number of target crops and diseases in both forecasting plots amount to 30 crops and 104 diseases. Disease development in the forecasting plots is examined by two extension agents specialized in disease forecasting, working in the national Agricul-tural Technology Service Center(ATSC) founded in each city and prefecture. The data obtained by the extension agents are transferred to a central organization, Rural Development Administration (RDA) through an internet-web system for analysis in a nation-wide forecasting program, and forwarded far the Central Forecasting Council consisted of 12 members from administration, university, research institution, meteorology station, and mass media to discuss present situation of disease development and subsequent progress. The council issues a forecasting information message, as a result of analysis, that is announced in public via mass media to 245 agencies including ATSC, who informs to local administration, the related agencies and farmers for implementation of disease control activity. However, in future successful performance of plant disease forecasting system is thought to be securing of excellent extension agents specialized in disease forecasting, elevation of their forecasting ability through continuous trainings, and furnishing of prominent forecasting equipments. Researches in plant disease forecasting in Korea have been concentrated on rice blast, where much information is available, but are substan-tially limited in other diseases. Most of the forecasting researches failed to achieve the continuity of researches on specialized topic, ignoring steady improvement towards practical use. Since disease forecasting loses its value without practicality, more efforts are needed to improve the practicality of the forecasting method in both spatial and temporal aspects. Since significance of disease forecasting is directly related to economic profit, further fore-casting researches should be planned and propelled in relation to fungicide spray scheduling or decision-making of control activities.
Kim, Jeong-Soon;Song, Mi-Hee;Choi, Jae-Eul;Lee, Hee-Bong;Ahn, Sang-Nag
Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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v.40
no.6
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pp.603-610
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2008
The principal objective of current study was to evaluate the potential of near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) as a non-destructive method for the prediction of the amylose and protein contents of un-hulled and brown rice in broad-based calibration models. The average amylose and protein content of 75 rice accessions were 20.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Additionally, the range of amylose and protein content were 16.6-24.5% and 3.8-9.3%, respectively. In total, 79 rice germplasms representing a wide range of chemical characteristics, variable physical properties, and origins were scanned via NIRS for calibration and validation equations. The un-hulled and brown rice samples evidenced distinctly different patterns in a wavelength range from 1,440 nm to 2,400 nm in the original NIR spectra. The optimal performance calibration model could be obtained by MPLS (modified partial least squares) using the first derivative method (1:4:4:1) for un-hulled rice and the second derivative method (2:4:4:1) for brown rice. The correlation coefficients $(r^2)$ and standard error of calibration (SEC) of protein and amylose contents for the un-hulled rice were 0.86, 2.48, and 0.84, 1.13, respectively. The $r^2$ and SEC of protein and amylose content for brown rice were 0.95, 1.09 and 0.94, 0.42, respectively. The results of this study suggest that the NIRS technique could be utilized as a routine procedure for the quantification of protein and amylose contents in large accessions of un-hulled rice germplasms.
Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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v.35
no.4
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pp.290-296
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2015
This study was conducted to investigate the influence of the mixed application of chemical fertilizer (CF) with liquid swine manure (LSM) on the agronomic characteristics, dry matter yield, minerals, and free sugar in cultivating Sorghum ${\times}$ Sorghum Hybrid (SSH) on paddy soil. The field experiment was designed in a randomized block design with three replications and consisted of CF 100% (C), CF 70% + LSM 30% (T1), CF 50% + LSM 50% (T2), CF 30% + LSM 70% (T3), and LSM 100% treatment (T4). The application of LSM was based only on the nitrogen (150 kg/ha). Plant length, leaf length, leaf width and stem diameter were significantly the lower in T4 (p<0.05). Stem hardness increased significantly (p<0.05) as the LSM application rate decreased. Fresh yield was the highest in T2, whereas the lowest in T3 (p<0.05). However, dry matter yields and TDN yield did not show significant difference among treatments. Crude protein was the highest in T1 (p<0.05). Crude fat content did not significant differences between the T1, T2, T3 and T4, but C showed a significantly different (p<0.05). NDF and crude fiber were the highest in T3 and C, respectively (p<0.05). However, ADF did not show significant difference among treatments. Total mineral contents were higher in the order of T1> T2> T4> T3> C (p<0.05). Free sugar contents were significantly higher at T1 and C as compared to other treatments. The analysis of all the above results suggests that the application of liquid swine manure is very effective, considering the yield performance and the content of mineral and free sugar. In addition, liquid swine manure may be possible to grow SSH without chemical fertilizer.
Purpose: This study was conducted to identify the perception regarding palliative care among Korean doctors and referral barriers toward palliative care for terminal cancer patients. Methods: Between May and June 2010, 477 specialists mainly caring cancer patients using a web-based, self-administered questionnaire. Results: A total of 128 doctors (26.8%) responded. All respondents (100%) deemed palliative care a necessary service for terminal cancer patients. More than 80% of the respondents agreed to each of the following statements: all cancer centers should provide palliative care service (80.5%); all terminal cancer patients should receive concurrent palliative care along with anti-cancer therapies (89.1%) and caring for terminal cancer patients requires interdisciplinary approach (96.9). While more than 58% of the respondents were satisfied with their performance of physical and psychological symptoms management and emotional support provided by patient's family members, 64% of the responded answered that their general management of the end-of-life care was less than satisfactory. Doctors without prior experience in referring their patients to palliative care specialists accounted for 26.6% of the respondents. The most common barrier to hospice referral, cited by 47.7% of the respondents, was "refusal of patient or family member", followed by "lack of available palliative care resources" (46.1%). Conclusion: Although most doctors do recognize the importance of palliative care for advanced cancer patients, comprehensive and sufficient palliative medicine, including interdisciplinary cooperation and end-of-life care, has not been put into practice. Thus, more active palliative consultation or referral is needed for effective care of terminal cancer patients.
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