• Title/Summary/Keyword: Performance plot

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Clinical Value of a Desktop Spirometer (HI-801) for Spirometry Screening (선별 검사를 위한 탁상용 폐활량기 (HI-801)의 임상적 유용성에 관한 고찰)

  • Choi, Hye Sook;Choi, Cheon Woong;Park, Myung Jae;Kang, Hong Mo;Yoo, Hong Ji
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.276-283
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    • 2007
  • Background: A national health care initiative recommends routine spirometry screening of all smokers over age 45 or patients with respiratory symptoms. In response to the recommendation, new, simple, and inexpensive desktop spirometers for the purpose of promoting widespread spirometric screening were marketed. The performance of these spirometers was evaluated in vivo testing with healthy subjects. However, the clinical setting allows spirometric assessment of various pathologic combinations of flow and volume. Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of a desktop spirometer to a standard laboratory spirometer, in a clinical setting with pathologic pulmonary function. Method: In a health check-up center, where screening pulmonary funct test was performed using the HI-801 spirometer. Subjects who revealed the ventilation defect in screening spirometry, performed the spirometry again using the standard Vmax spectra 22d spirometer in a tertiary care hospital pulmonary function laboratory. Pulmonary function test with both spirometer was performed according to the guidelines of the American Thoracic Society. Results: 109 patients were enrolled. Pulmonary function measurements (FVC, $FEV_1$, PEFR, FEF25%-75%) from the HI-801 correlated closely (r=0.94, 0.93, 0.81, 0.84, respectively) with those performed with the Vmax spectra 22d and showed the good limits of agreement and differences between the 2 devices; FVC +0.35 L, $FEV_1$ +0.16 L, PEFR +1.85 L/s, FEF25%-75%-0.13 L/s. With the exception of $FEV_1$, FEF25%-75%, these differences were significant(p<0.05) but small. Conclusion: The HI-801 spirometer is comparable to the standard laboratory spirometer, Vmax spectra 22d, with high accurary for $FEV_1$ and FVC and acceptable differences for clinical use.

Evaluation of lines of NERICA 1 introgressed with Gn1a and WFP for yield and yield components as affected by nitrogen fertilization in Kenya

  • Makihara, Daigo;Samejima, Hiroaki;Kikuta, Mayumi;Kimani, John M.;Ashikari, Motoyuki;Angeles-Shim, Rosalyn;Sunohara, Hidehiko;Jena, Kshirod K.;Yamauchi, Akira;Doi, Kazuyuki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2017.06a
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    • pp.323-323
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    • 2017
  • In many sub-Saharan African countries, boosting rice production is a pressing food security issue. To contribute to the increase in rice production, we have developed lines of NERICA 1 introgressed with the gene for spikelet number, Gn1a, and the gene for primary rachis-branch number, WFP by cross breeding. The performance of rice lines introgressed with the genes for yield related traits can be affected by cultivation environment and management. Thus, in this study, we aimed to evaluate the lines of NERICA 1 introgressed with Gn1a or/and WFP for yield and yield components under different nitrogen fertilization conditions in Kenya. A field trial was conducted at a paddy field in Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization-Mwea, Kirinyaga County ($0^{\circ}39^{\prime}S$, $0^{\circ}20^{\prime}E$) from August 2016 to January 2017. Eight lines of NERICA 1 introgressed with Gn1a and/or WFP, and their parents, NERICA 1 and ST12, were grown under 0 (NF) and $75(SF)kg\;N\;ha^{-1}$. At maturity, five hills per plot were harvested to determine the yield and yield components. The number of primary and secondary rachis-branches per panicle was measured on the longest panicle in each hill. Under SF, the introgression of WFP to NERICA 1 increased the number of primary and secondary rachis-branches by 27 and 25%, respectively. On the other hand, Gn1a did not increase the number of primary rachis-branches, whereas the number of secondary rachis-branches was increased by 38% on average. The number of primary and secondary rachis-branches of the lines introgressed with both genes increased by 25 and 56%, respectively. Although grain number per panicle increased 33% by Gn1a, 34% by WFP, and 43% by Gn1a+WFP, the yield increase by Gn1a, WFP, and Gn1a+WFP was only 14, 7, and 14%, respectively. The suppression of the yield increase was mainly attributed to the decline in the filled grain ratio. Under NF, WFP increased the number of primary and secondary rachis-branches by 20 and 19%, respectively. The introgression of both genes increased the former and the later by 19 and 35%, respectively. However, Gn1a did not change them under NF. Thus, even under NF, grain yield increased 11% by WFP and 24% by Gn1a+WFP due to the increased grain number although filled grain ratio declined. Our findings suggest that the introgression of Gn1a and WFP could contribute to the rice productivity improvement in sub-Saharan Africa even under low fertility conditions. Improving filled grain ratio of the lines introgressed with these genes by further breeding and fertilization management will be the focus of subsequent work.

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Air Sampling and Isotope Analyses of Water Vapor and CO2 using Multi-Level Profile System (다중연직농도시스템(Multi-Level Profile System)을 이용한 수증기와 이산화탄소 시료채취 및 안정동위원소 조성 분석)

  • Lee, Dong-Ho;Kim, Su-Jin;Cheon, Jung-Hwa;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2010
  • The multi-level $H_2O/CO_2$ profile system has been widely used to quantify the storage and advection effects on energy and mass fluxes measured by eddy covariance systems. In this study, we expanded the utility of the profile system by accommodating air sampling devices for isotope analyses of water vapor and $CO_2$. A pre-evacuated 2L glass flask was connected to the discharge of an Infrared Gas Analyzer (IRGA) of the profile system so that airs with known concentration of $H_2O$ and $CO_2$ can be sampled. To test the performance of this sampling system, we sampled airs from 8 levels (from 0.1 to 40 m) at the KoFlux tower of Gwangneung deciduous forest, Korea. Air samples in the 2L flask were separated into its component gases and pure $H_2O$ and $CO_2$ were extracted by using a vacuum extraction line. This novel technique successfully produced vertical profiles of ${\delta}D$ of $H_2O$ and ${\delta}^{13}C$ of $CO_2$ in a mature forest, and estimated ${\delta}D$ of evapotranspiration (${\delta}D_{ET}$) and ${\delta}^{13}C$ of $CO_2$ from ecosystem respiration (${\delta}^{13}C_{resp}$) by using Keeling plots. While technical improvement is still required in various aspects, our sampling system has two major advantages over other proposed techniques. First, it is cost effective since our system uses the existing structure of the profile system. Second, both $CO_2$ and $H_2O$ can be sampled simultaneously so that net ecosystem exchange of $H_2O$ and $CO_2$ can be partitioned at the same temporal resolution, which will improve our understanding of the coupling between water and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems.

Effect of Planting Date and Hybrid on Forage Yield and Quality of Corn for Silage I. Agronomic characteristics and forage yield of corn (파종시기 및 품종이 사일리지용 옥수수의 수량과 사료가치에 미치는 영향. I. 옥수수의 생육특성 및 사초수량)

  • Kim, J.D.;Kim, D.A.;Park, H.S.;Kim, S.G.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.211-220
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    • 1999
  • The corn is mostly planted in mid-April in single-cropping silage system if possible, however, in a double-cropping silage system, the corn planting date is delayed until after the mid-May. The objective of this study was to evaluate agronomic characteristics and forage performance of the eight government recommended corn hybrids for silage at two dates of planting. Split-plot design replicated three times was used, that is, main plots were planting dates, sub-plots were eight hybrids at Suweon in 1997. Days from planting to silking of optimum planting was 84 days and that of late was 69 days. The difference in silking day among the hybrids was 6 days at optimum planting and 2 days at late planting. Plant height of optimum planting corn was higher than that of late one, however, ear height and stem diameter of optimum planting were lower than those of late planting corn. Among the corn hybrids tested, plant heights of 'P3156' and 'P3163' were higher than those of the other hybrids. Ear height of 'DK713' was the lowest among the corn hybrids and stem diameter of 'P3394' was thicker than that of the other hybrids. European corn borer(ECB) damage(16.6%) at optimum planting was lower than that(49.9%) of late, however, there were no significant ECB damage differences among the corn hybrids tested. Whole plant dry matter(DM) contents of 'P3525', 'P3394' and 'P3352' hybrids were higher than those of the other corn hybrids at harvest. Ear percentages of the total dry matter(DM) of 'P3394' and 'P3156' were higher than those of the other corn hybrids. Dry matter(DM) and total digestible nutrients(TDN) yields(19,696 and 14,621kg/ha) at optimum planting were higher than those (17,163 and 12,570kg/ha) of late planting, while there were no significant differences in DM and TDN yields among the corn hybrids tested. And those hybrids with greater proportion of grain in the whole plant have higher DM and TDN yields. Correlation coefficients for days from planting to silking with DM and TDN yields were $0.84^{**}$ and $0.87^{**}$, and those for ear percent were $0.86^{**}$ and $0.87^{**}$. Results of this study indicate that optimum planting date(15 April) is better than late planting date(16 May) in agronomic characteristics and forage production of silage corn. Days from planting to silking and ear percent as welI as other characters are important factors screening the corn hybrid for silage.

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Comparison of Thatch Accumulation in Warm-Season and Cool-Season Turfgrasses under USGA and Mono-layer Soil Systems (USGA 지반 및 약식지반에서 난지형과 한지형 잔디의 대취축적 비교)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Nam;Kim, Byoung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2010
  • This study was initiated to investigate thatch accumulation in several turfgrasses grown under two soil systems. The 45 centimeter deep USGA system was constructed with rootzone, intermediate and drainage layers. The mono-layer system, however, was made with only a 30cm rootzone layer. Turfgrasses used in the study were comprised of 3 varieties from Korean lawngrass of Warm-Season Grass(WSG) and 3 blends and 3 mixtures from Cool-Season Grass(CSG). A total of 9 turfgrass treatments were replicated three times in RCBD in both systems. Cultural practices for the research plot followed a typical maintenance program for highly managed turf. Treatment differences for thatch accumulation were observed among the turfgrasses in both soil systems. Thatch under the USGA system was 9% greater than under the mono-layer system due to its more favorable conditions for turf growth. Higher thatch depth was found with Korean lawngrass, 34~87% in the USGA system and 16~75% in the mono-layer system when compared with CSG. Among WSG, the Joongji variety was the highest in thatch layer under both the USGA and mono-layer systems. Kentucky bluegrass(KB) was the greatest among CSG, since it is a rhizomatous-type in growth habit, resulting in faster production of organic matter over bunch-type of tall fescue and perennial ryegrass. Proper depth in the thatch layer was known to be beneficial by enhancing the resiliency and wear tolerance of the turf in athletic fields. Thus, KB was considered to be a very excellent turfgrass in terms of turf quality, environmental performance, physical properties and soccer player safety. However, disadvantages such as poor water-holding properties, more inclined to injury from environmental stresses and severe diseases and insect injury were also expected where thatch was excessively accumulated. Therefore, these results demonstrate that more frequent measures for controlling thatch such as vertical mowing, topdressing or coring should be employed for soccer fields with Korean lawngrass and KB over other turfgrasses.

Seeding Rate and Planting Date Effects on Forage Performance and Quality of Winter Rye (호밀의 사초특성, 수량 및 품질에 미치는 파종량 및 파종기의 영향)

  • Park, H.S.;Kim, D.A.;Kim, J.D.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 1999
  • This experiment was carried out to determine seeding rate and planting date effects on the forage performance and quality of winter rye(Secale cereale L.) at Suweon in 1997 and 1998. The experiment was arranged in a spilt plot design with three replications. Main plots consisted of three seeding rates; 100, 150, and 200kg/ha. Sub-plots consisted of four planting dates; 5 September, 20 September, 5 October and 20 October. The first heading date of rye was not strongly influenced by planting dates. On a day basis, a 1:15 ratio was existed between heading and planting dates of rye, as a 1-day delay in spring heading date for each 15-day delay in fall planting date. Dry matter content of rye for a seeding rate of 200kg/ha was the lowest of 13.6%, and that for the planting dates was decreased to 15.2, 14.2, 14.3, and 13.8% with delayed seeding (P<0.05). There was an interaction between seeding rate and planting date in dry matter content of rye(P<0.01). Acid detergent fiber (ADF) percentage of rye for the seeding rates was not significant and that for the planting dates was decreased to 32.1, 31.6, 31.6, and 29.3%, as the planting was delayed(P<0.05). There was an interaction between seeding rate and planting date for ADF. Effect of seeding rate and planting date on neutral detergent fiber(NDF) of rye was similar to the observations made on ADF. Crude protein content of rye for the seeding rates was not significant, but that for the planting dates was increased to 17.3, 17.7, 18.2, and 18.9%, as the planting was delayed(P<0.05). In vitro dry matter digestibility(IVDMD) of rye for the seeding rates was not significant, but that for the planting dates was increased to 77.5, 80.6, 80.9, and 80.9%, as the planting was delayed(P<0.05). Dry matter yield of rye for a seeding rate of 100 kg/ha was the highest of 9,059 kg/ha, and that for a seeding rate of 200 kg/ha was the lowest of 7,647 kg/ha(P<0.01). In this experiment, the highest forage yield(8,945 kg/ha) was obtained when planting was completed by early October(5 October), with yield decreased as planting was delayed until 20 October (7,249 kg/ha)(P<0.01). This trend was also observed for the crude protein(CP) and in vitro digestible dry matter(IVDDM) yields of rye. A significant interaction between seeding rate and planting date for the dry matter yield was occurred(P<0.01). Based on the results of this experiment, it appears that the forage dry matter yield of rye could be enhanced by sowing from 20 September to 5 October under upland condition in the middle plain area of Korea. The seeding rates from 100 to 150 kg/ha and that of 200 kg/ha would be suitable for the early-fall and late fall sowing, respectively.

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Studies on the Biological Effects of Chemosterilant, Hempa, on the Rice Weevil (Sitophilus oryzae 1.) and Transmission of Sterility (화학적 불임유기물질 Hempa가 쌀바구미(Sitophilus oryzae L.)에 미치는 생물학적 영향 및 불임성의 전달에 관한 연구)

  • Shim Jai Wook
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 1973
  • Some experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of the chemosterilant, hempa, on the biology of the rice weevil, Sitophilus oryzae L., and the transmission of the lethal factors in the progeny. One to three days old adult males were fed on the wheat grains treated with concentrations of 0.0625, 0.125, 0.25, and $0.5\%$ of hempa water solution. The effects of the treatment on the mortality, longevity, and the performance of oviposition were examined for the Pl generation, and the hatchability and mortality in the postembryonic development were also tested in the $F_1,\;F_2,\;BC_1,\;F_3,\;and\;BC_2$ generations to analyze the inheritance of the lethal factors. The results obtained were summarized as follows. (1) The average longevity of the treated males were ranged from 26.6 to 30.4 days, and indicated no statistical differences. (2) The mortality of the treated males were ranged between $3.3\%\;and\;13.3\%$ and showed no statistical significance. (3) The overall mean number of eggs laid by a female mated to a treated male with concentrations of 0.0625, 0.125, 0.26 and $0.5\%$ were 3.78, 4.05, 3.75 and 3.61 for the respective treatments, and they were not differ significantly from those of control which were 3.60 per female per 3 day period. The unmated female laid 1.91 in the same period, and significantly differ from those in other experimental groups. (4) The overall mean hatchability of the eggs laid by the females mated with males that had been treated with various concentrations of hempa were 86.82, 64.77, 53.47, 40.33 and $24.78\%$ for the respective concentrations of 0, 0.0625, 0.125, 0.25 and $0.5\%$. The hatchability decreased with the increasing concentrations. (5) The minimum hatchabilities were obtained from the eggs laid in the period of 10-12 days after treatment, then the hatchability increased showing some recovery. The recovery seemed to be very much delayed for the males which had been treated with the greater concentrations. Such a difference in hatchability might be related with the sensitivity of the developmental stages of the sperms, and broader spectrum in the stages and severer effects seemed to be associated with the increased concentrations. (6) The overall mean of larval mortality in the $F_l$ generation were 6.55, 17.89, 27.40, 35.42 and $52.17\%$ for the respective concentrations of 0,0.0625, 0.125,0.25 and $0.5\%$. And there was a tendency to increase in the mortality with the increase of concentrations. (7) The correlation coefficients between per cent sterile eggs and larval mortality for the experimental plots of 0.125, 0.25 and $0.5\%$ treatments showed r=+0.83 and +0.85, respectively, and it seemed to be close correlation between the lethal effects on the embryonic and post-embryonic developments. (8) Since the $SC_{50}$ of the sterile eggs was $0.133\%$ and $SC_{50}$ of the larval mortality was $0.565\%$, it was considered that tile lethal factors expressed more in the egg stages than the larval stages. (9) The ratio of female to male in the $F_l$ adults showed 100 : 125, 100 : 108 and 100 : 124 for the plots of 0.125, 0.25 and $0.5\%$ treatments, respectively. And it n·as considered that the sex ratio distortions might occur with the higher concentrations. (10) When the F, males originated 1.on the eggs had been laid by p, in the period of 16-18 days after treatment, were crossed to normal females $(BC_1)$ and made sib matings $(F_2)$, the per cent sterile eggs of the $BC_1$ generation were 13.88 and $33.04\%$ , and were 31.01 and $38.73\%$ for the $F_2$generation with the plots of 0.0625 and $0.125\%$ treatment, respectively. And these seemed to be a results of the $F_1$ individuals are carrying some chromosomal aberrations (11) The larval mortality was the highest in the $F_2$ plot and followed the female backcross plot, and the least in the male backcrosses. (12) The proportions of 1st and 2nd instar larvae among the larval development at tile 17th day after oviposition were 10.98, 27.26, 32.98 and $15.73\%$ in the normal female $\times$ normal male, $F_1$ female$\times$normal male, normal $female \;\times F_1$ male and $female \;\times F_1$ male plots, respectively. It was considered that the larval development might be delayed by the treatment in the 2nd generation. (13) Per cent larval mortality and sterile eggs were greater in the $F_2$ sib mating plots $(F_3)$ than both of $F_2$ backcrosses. Therefore, it seemed that some of the recessive lethal mutations might affect in the further generations. (14) The sterility, induced by the treatment of chemosterilant, hempa, was considered as the result of the dominant lethal mutations due to chromosomal aberrations such as translocation and/or deletion. The effects of these lethal factors seemed to be inherited tip to 3rd generation after treatment.

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The Comparison of the Ultra-Violet Radiation of Summer Outdoor Screened by the Landscaping Shade Facilities and Tree (조경용 차양시설과 수목에 의한 하절기 옥외공간의 자외선 차단율 비교)

  • Lee, Chun-Seok;Ryu, Nam-Hyong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.20-28
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the ultra-violet(UV) radiation under the landscaping shade facilities and tree with natural solar UV of the outdoor space at summer middays. The UVA+B and UVB were recorded every minute from the $20^{th}$ of June to the $26^{th}$ of September 2012 at a height of 1.1m above in the four different shading conditions, with fours same measuring system consisting of two couple of analog UVA+B sensor(220~370nm, Genicom's GUVA-T21GH) and UVB sensor(220~320nm, Genicom's GUVA-T21GH) and data acquisition systems(Comfile Tech.'s Moacon). Four different shading conditions were under an wooden shelter($W4.2m{\times}L4.2m{\times}H2.5m$), a polyester membrane structure ($W4.9m{\times}L4.9m{\times}H2.6m$), a Salix koreensis($H11{\times}B30$), and a brick-paved plot without any shading material. Based on the 648 records of 17 sunny days, the time serial difference of natural solar UVA+B and UVB for midday periods were analysed and compared, and statistical analysis about the difference between the four shading conditions was done based on the 2,052 records of daytime period from 10 A.M. to 4 P.M.. The major findings were as follows; 1. The average UVA+B under the wooden shelter, the membrane and the tree were $39{\mu}W/cm^2$(3.4%), $74{\mu}W/cm^2$(6.4%), $87{\mu}W/cm^2$(7.6%) respectively, while the solar UVA+B was $1.148{\mu}W/cm^2$. Which means those facilities and tree screened at least 93% of solar UV+B. 2. The average UVB under the wooden shelter, the membrane and the tree were $12{\mu}W/cm^2$(5.8%), $26{\mu}W/cm^2$(13%), $17{\mu}W/cm^2$(8.2%) respectively, while the solar UVB was $207{\mu}W/cm^2$. The membrane showed the highest level and the wooden shelter lowest. 3. According to the results of time serial analysis, the difference between the three shaded conditions around noon was very small, but the differences of early morning and late afternoon were apparently big. Which seems caused by the matter of the formal and structural characteristics of the shading facilities and tree, not by the shading materials itself. In summary, the performance of the four landscaping shade facilities and tree were very good at screening the solar UV at outdoor of summer middays, but poor at screening the lateral UV during early morning and late afternoon. Therefore, it can be apparently said that the more delicate design of shading facilities and big tree or forest to block the additional lateral UV, the more effective in conditioning the outdoor space reducing the useless or even harmful radiation for human activities.

An Interpretation of the Korean Fairy-Tale "Borrowed Fortune From Heaven" From the Perspective of Analytical Psychology (한국민담 <하늘에서 빌려온 복>에 대한 분석심리학적 이해)

  • Kihong Baek
    • Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.112-160
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    • 2023
  • This study examined the Korean folklore "Borrowed Fortune from Heaven" from the perspective of Analytical Psychology, considering it a manifestation of the human psyche, and tried to gain a deeper understanding of what happens in our mind. Through the exploration, the researcher was able to re-identify the ongoing psychological process operating in the depths of our mind, pertaining to the emergence of a new dimension of consciousness. Particularly the researcher was able to gain some insights into how the potential psychic elements for the new consciousness are prepared in the unconscious, how they get integrated into the conscious life, and what is essential for the accomplishment of the process. The tale begins with a poor woodcutter who, in order to escape from poverty, starts gathering twice as much firewood. However, the newly acquired amount disappears overnight, so the woodcutter gets perplexed and curious about where it goes and who is taking it. He seeks to find out the truth, which leads him to an unexpected journey to Heaven. There he learns the truth concerning his very tiny amount of fortune, and discovers another big fortune for an unborn person. By pleading with the ruler of Heaven, the woodcutter borrows that grand fortune, on the condition that he must return it to the owner when the time comes. After that, the woodcutter's life undergoes a series of changes, in which he finally becomes a wealthy farmer, but gradually is reminded more and more that the destined time is approaching. In the end, the fortune is completely transferred to the original owner, resulting in a dramatic twist and the creation of a new life circumstances. The overall plot can be understood as a reflection of the psychological process aiming at the evolution of consciousness through renewal. In this context, the woodcutter can be considered a psychic element that undergoes a continuous transformation in preparation for participating in the upcoming new consciousness. In other words, the changes brought about by this figure can be interpreted as a gradual and increasingly detailed foreshadowing of what the forthcoming new consciousness would be like. Interestingly, as the destined time approaches, the protagonist's anguish in conflict reaches its climax, despite his good performance in his role until then. This effectively portrays the difficulty of achieving a new dimension of consciousness, which requires moving past the last step. All the events in the story ultimately converge at this point. After all, the resolution occurs when the protagonist lets go of everything he has and follows the will of Heaven. This implies what is essential for the renewal of consciousness. Only by completely complying with the entire mind, the potential constituents of the new consciousness that should play important roles in a renewal and evolution of consciousness through experiencing, can participate in the ultimate outcome. As long as they remain trapped in any intermediate stage, the totality of the psyche would develop another detour aiming at the final destination, which means the beginning of another period of suffering carrying a purposeful meaning. The tale suggests that this truth will be applied everywhere that renewal of consciousness is directed, whether for an individual or a society.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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