• Title/Summary/Keyword: Performance of Investment

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Energy Efficiency Evaluation of IT based Ship Energy Saving System-(1) : Ship Handling Simulator Test Results (IT 기반의 선박에너지절감시스템 성능평가 방법-(1) : 육상시험 수행 결과)

  • Yoo, Yun-Ja
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.465-472
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    • 2015
  • SEEMP (Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan) guidelines for a ship's GHG reduction include a machinery modification of hull, an installation of energy efficiency enhanced attachment in hardware methods. It is also possible to bring a ship energy efficiency improvement by fuel-efficient operations or in other software methods. Hardware modification or installation on ship can bring financial burdens to a ship company compared to its improvement expectation. On the other hand, Software based energy-saving technology can be applicable on various ship types, and it is also expected high efficiency of ship energy use compared to hardware based technology in perspective of the investment costs and efficiency. In this paper, it is described that the ship handling simulator based evaluation was carried out using representative ship model of bulk, container and VLCC. Simulation environments were separated into 6 conditions according to the sea-state and weather condition, and the operation results were compared with those before and after energy saving system applied The container ship showed the largest FOC save rate after energy saving system applied although the others also showed energy save rate after using the system.

The Prediction of Cryptocurrency Prices Using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence based on Deep Learning (설명 가능한 인공지능과 CNN을 활용한 암호화폐 가격 등락 예측모형)

  • Taeho Hong;Jonggwan Won;Eunmi Kim;Minsu Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.129-148
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    • 2023
  • Bitcoin is a blockchain technology-based digital currency that has been recognized as a representative cryptocurrency and a financial investment asset. Due to its highly volatile nature, Bitcoin has gained a lot of attention from investors and the public. Based on this popularity, numerous studies have been conducted on price and trend prediction using machine learning and deep learning. This study employed LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) and CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), which have shown potential for predictive performance in the finance domain, to enhance the classification accuracy in Bitcoin price trend prediction. XAI(eXplainable Artificial Intelligence) techniques were applied to the predictive model to enhance its explainability and interpretability by providing a comprehensive explanation of the model. In the empirical experiment, CNN was applied to technical indicators and Google trend data to build a Bitcoin price trend prediction model, and the CNN model using both technical indicators and Google trend data clearly outperformed the other models using neural networks, SVM, and LSTM. Then SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to the predictive model to obtain explanations about the output values. Important prediction drivers in input variables were extracted through global interpretation, and the interpretation of the predictive model's decision process for each instance was suggested through local interpretation. The results show that our proposed research framework demonstrates both improved classification accuracy and explainability by using CNN, Google trend data, and SHAP.

Enhancing Technology Learning Capabilities for Catch-up and Post Catch-up Innovations (기술학습역량 강화를 통한 추격 및 탈추격 혁신 촉진)

  • Bae, Zong-Tae;Lee, Jong-Seon;Koo, Bonjin
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 2016
  • Motivation and activities for technological learning, entrepreneurship, innovation, and creativity are driving forces of economic development in Asian countries. In the early stages of technological development, technological learning and entrepreneurship are efficient ways in which to catch up with advanced countries because firms can accumulate skills and knowledge quickly at relatively low risk. In the later stages of technological development, however, innovation and creativity become more important. This study aims to identify a) the factors (learning capabilities) that influence technological learning performance and b) barriers to enhancing innovation capabilities for the creative economy and organizations. The major part of this study is related to learning capabilities in the post-catch-up era. Based on a literature review and observations from Korean experiences, this study proposes a technological learning model composed of various influencing factors on technological learning. Three hypotheses are derived, and data are collected from Korean machine tool manufacturers. Intense interviews with CEOs and R&D directors are conducted using structured questionnaires. Statistical analysis, such as correlation and ANOVA are then carried out. Furthermore, this study addresses how to enhance innovation capabilities to move forward. Innovation enablers and barriers are identified by case studies and policy analysis. The results of the empirical study identify several levels of firms' learning capabilities and activities such as a) stock of technology, b) potential of technical labor, c) explicit technological efforts, d) readiness to learn, e) top management support, f) a formal technological learning system, g) high learning motivation, h) appropriate technology choice, and i) specific goal setting. These learning capabilities determine firms' learning performance, especially in the early stages of development. Furthermore, it is found that the critical factors for successful technological learning vary along the stages of technology development. Throughout the statistical and policy analyses, this study confirms that technological learning can be understood as an intrinsic principle of the technology development process. Firms perform proactive and creative learning in the late stages, while reactive and imitative learning prevails in the early stages. In addition, this study identifies the driving forces or facilitating factors enhancing innovation performance in the post catch-up era. The results of the preliminary case studies and policy analysis show some facilitating factors such as a) the strategic intent of the CEO and corporate culture, b) leadership and change agents, c) design principles and routines, d) ecosystem and collaboration with partners, and e) intensive R&D investment.

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Analysis of Service Factors on the Management Performance of Korea Railroad Corporation - Based on the railroad statistical yearbook data - (한국철도공사 경영성과에 미치는 서비스 요인분석 -철도통계연보 데이터를 대상으로-)

  • Koo, Kyoung-Mo;Seo, Jeong-Tek;Kang, Nak-Jung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.127-144
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to derive service factors based on the "Rail Statistical Yearbook" data of railroad service providers from 1990 to 2019, and to analyze the effect of the service factors on the operating profit ratio(OPR), a representative management performance variable of railroad transport service providers. In particular, it has academic significance in terms of empirical research to evaluate whether the management innovation of the KoRail has changed in line with the purpose of establishing the corporation by dividing the research period into the first period (1990-2003) and the latter (2004-2019). The contents of this study investigated previous studies on the quality of railway passenger transportation service and analyzed the contents of government presentation data related to the management performance evaluation of the KoRail. As an empirical analysis model, a research model was constructed using OPR as a dependent variable and service factor variables of infrastructure, economy, safety, connectivity, and business diversity as explanatory variables based on the operation and management activity information during the analysis period 30 years. On the results of research analysis, OPR is that the infrastructure factor is improved by structural reform or efficiency improvement. And economic factors are the fact that operating profit ratio improves by reducing costs. The safety factor did not reveal the significant explanatory power of the regression coefficient, but the sign of influence was the same as the prediction. Connectivity factor reveals a influence on differences between first period and latter, but OPR impact direction is changed from negative in before to positive in late. This is an evironment in which connectivity is actually realized in later period. On diversity factor, there is no effect of investment share in subsidiaries and government subsidies on OPR.

Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.187-201
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    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

Institutional and Individual Investors' Trading Patterns and Price Changes (기관 및 개인투자자의 거래행태와 가격변화)

  • Jo, Kyoo-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.163-199
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    • 2007
  • This paper studies the stock market in which there are two types of investor, institutional and individual, whose information gathering and processing abilities are different. The institutional investor manages large funds and has powerful information sources. Whereas, the individual investor trades with a small amount of money and an information disadvantage. The model assumes that the institutional investor is more experienced and able to acquire relevant information earlier than the individual investor. On these assumptions, this paper shows a price continuation in the short run and a price reversal in the long run. The price continuation, or momentum, in the short run can be explained as follows. The early-informed institutional investor trades a stock, and as a result the stock price changes. Then the late-informed individual investor trades the same stock, and the stock price continues to move in the same direction in the short run. The reason for the price reversal in the long run is that since the individual investor has inferior information on the fundamental value of the stock, he tends to overreact to new information. So the stock price changes over its fundamental value initially and then regresses toward its fundamental value. In sum, both the price continuation and the price reversal are caused by the overreaction of the individual investor. The essay illustrates how these phenomena are stronger in the case where the proportion of the individual investor is higher. It also shows how the stock price goes up when the institutional investor buys a stock, while it goes down when the individual investor buys one.

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Lithoautotrophic Nitrogen Removal from Ammonium-rich Wastewater in Aerobic Upflow Sludge Bed(AUSB) Reactor (호기성 상향류 슬러지상 반응조를 이용한 고농도 암모늄 함유폐수의 독립영양 질소제거)

  • Ahn, Young-Ho;Choi, Hoon-Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.28 no.8
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    • pp.852-859
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    • 2006
  • The novel microbial process such as Anammox(anaerobic ammonium oxidation) and Canon(completely autotrophic nitrogen removal over nitrite) processes is promising biotechnology to remove nitrogen from ammonium-rich wastewater like anaerobic sludge digester liquid. In this research, a new Canon-type nitrogen removal process adopting upflow granular sludge bed type configuration was investigated on its feasibility and process performance, using synthetic wastewater and sludge digester liquids. Air as an oxygen source was provided in an external aeration chamber with flow recirculation. In the first experiment using the synthetic wastewater(up to 110 mg $NH_4$-N $L^{-1}$), the ammonium removal was about 95%(92% for T-N) at effective hydraulic retention time(HRT) for 3.8 days. In the second experiment using the sludge digester liquids($438{\pm}26$ mg $NH_4$-N $L^{-1}$), the total nitrogen removal was $94{\pm}1.7%$ at HRT for 5.4 days and $76{\pm}1.5%$ at HRT for 3.8 days, respectively. Little nitrite and nitrate were observed in the effluent of both experiments. The process revealed quite a lower oxygen($0.29{\sim}0.59$ g $O_2$ $g^{-1}N$) and less alkalinity($3.1{\sim}3.4$ g $CaCO_3$ $g^{-1}N$) consumption as compared to other new technology in microbial nitrogen removal. The process also offers the economical compact reactor configuration with excellent biomass retention, resulting in lower cost for investment and maintenance.

The Paradox and Pitfall in an Analytical Approach to China's Politics and Economics and The New Perspective (중국의 경제와 정치에 대한 분석과 새로운 비젼에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Eung-Kweon
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.403-425
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    • 2007
  • The sudden emergence of China as a superpower in world politics and economics is apparently a big surprise. This, however, is not an unusual incident. As far as the Chinese are concerned, they say that China is simply running almost the same track that its neighboring countries. In the recent years, a number of experts and scholars have expected that the emergence of China as a great economic power will be argued as a major issue in world politics and economics. So its economic progress will require experts and scholars to watch carefully how China is going to change. It certainly has created an atmosphere that most of the world leaders, experts and scholars are very concerned about China's remarkable performance in its economics and then willing to accept China's rapid growth as an urgent matter. Many experts and scholars began to analyze carefully the factors that have contributed to the rapid growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI), import-export, and economic reform were then listed as the most important factors. As a result, philosophy of economics, analytical economics, and economics are immediately needed for China who is at the moment very anxious to sustain the stable and continuity of rapid economic growth. But unfortunately China does not even recognize the reason why they need to adopt these economic concepts and methods.

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Domain Knowledge Incorporated Counterfactual Example-Based Explanation for Bankruptcy Prediction Model (부도예측모형에서 도메인 지식을 통합한 반사실적 예시 기반 설명력 증진 방법)

  • Cho, Soo Hyun;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.307-332
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    • 2022
  • One of the most intensively conducted research areas in business application study is a bankruptcy prediction model, a representative classification problem related to loan lending, investment decision making, and profitability to financial institutions. Many research demonstrated outstanding performance for bankruptcy prediction models using artificial intelligence techniques. However, since most machine learning algorithms are "black-box," AI has been identified as a prominent research topic for providing users with an explanation. Although there are many different approaches for explanations, this study focuses on explaining a bankruptcy prediction model using a counterfactual example. Users can obtain desired output from the model by using a counterfactual-based explanation, which provides an alternative case. This study introduces a counterfactual generation technique based on a genetic algorithm (GA) that leverages both domain knowledge (i.e., causal feasibility) and feature importance from a black-box model along with other critical counterfactual variables, including proximity, distribution, and sparsity. The proposed method was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively to measure the quality and the validity.

Research Framework for International Franchising (국제프랜차이징 연구요소 및 연구방향)

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Lim, Young-Kyun;Shim, Jae-Duck
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.61-118
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this research is to construct research framework for international franchising based on existing literature and to identify research components in the framework. Franchise can be defined as management styles that allow franchisee use various management assets of franchisor in order to make or sell product or service. It can be divided into product distribution franchise that is designed to sell products and business format franchise that is designed for running it as business whatever its form is. International franchising can be defined as a way of internationalization of franchisor to foreign country by providing its business format or package to franchisee of host country. International franchising is growing fast for last four decades but academic research on this is quite limited. Especially in Korea, research about international franchising is carried out on by case study format with single case or empirical study format with survey based on domestic franchise theory. Therefore, this paper tries to review existing literature on international franchising research, providing research framework, and then stimulating new research on this field. International franchising research components include motives and environmental factors for decision of expanding to international franchising, entrance modes and development plan for international franchising, contracts and management strategy of international franchising, and various performance measures from different perspectives. First, motives of international franchising are fee collection from franchisee. Also it provides easier way to expanding to foreign country. The other motives including increase total sales volume, occupying better strategic position, getting quality resources, and improving efficiency. Environmental factors that facilitating international franchising encompasses economic condition, trend, and legal or political factors in host and/or home countries. In addition, control power and risk management capability of franchisor plays critical role in successful franchising contract. Final decision to enter foreign country via franchising is determined by numerous factors like history, size, growth, competitiveness, management system, bonding capability, industry characteristics of franchisor. After deciding to enter into foreign country, franchisor needs to set entrance modes of international franchising. Within contractual mode, there are master franchising and area developing franchising, licensing, direct franchising, and joint venture. Theories about entrance mode selection contain concepts of efficiency, knowledge-based approach, competence-based approach, agent theory, and governance cost. The next step after entrance decision is operation strategy. Operation strategy starts with selecting a target city and a target country for franchising. In order to finding, screening targets, franchisor needs to collect information about candidates. Critical information includes brand patent, commercial laws, regulations, market conditions, country risk, and industry analysis. After selecting a target city in target country, franchisor needs to select franchisee, in other word, partner. The first important criteria for selecting partners are financial credibility and capability, possession of real estate. And cultural similarity and knowledge about franchisor and/or home country are also recognized as critical criteria. The most important element in operating strategy is legal document between franchisor and franchisee with home and host countries. Terms and conditions in legal documents give objective information about characteristics of franchising agreement for academic research. Legal documents have definitions of terminology, territory and exclusivity, agreement of term, initial fee, continuing fees, clearing currency, and rights about sub-franchising. Also, legal documents could have terms about softer elements like training program and operation manual. And harder elements like law competent court and terms of expiration. Next element in operating strategy is about product and service. Especially for business format franchising, product/service deliverable, benefit communicators, system identifiers (architectural features), and format facilitators are listed for product/service strategic elements. Another important decision on product/service is standardization vs. customization. The rationale behind standardization is cost reduction, efficiency, consistency, image congruence, brand awareness, and competitiveness on price. Also standardization enables large scale R&D and innovative change in management style. Another element in operating strategy is control management. The simple way to control franchise contract is relying on legal terms, contractual control system. There are other control systems, administrative control system and ethical control system. Contractual control system is a coercive source of power, but franchisor usually doesn't want to use legal power since it doesn't help to build up positive relationship. Instead, self-regulation is widely used. Administrative control system uses control mechanism from ordinary work relationship. Its main component is supporting activities to franchisee and communication method. For example, franchisor provides advertising, training, manual, and delivery, then franchisee follows franchisor's direction. Another component is building franchisor's brand power. The last research element is performance factor of international franchising. Performance elements can be divided into franchisor's performance and franchisee's performance. The conceptual performance measures of franchisor are simple but not easy to obtain objectively. They are profit, sale, cost, experience, and brand power. The performance measures of franchisee are mostly about benefits of host country. They contain small business development, promotion of employment, introduction of new business model, and level up technology status. There are indirect benefits, like increase of tax, refinement of corporate citizenship, regional economic clustering, and improvement of international balance. In addition to those, host country gets socio-cultural change other than economic effects. It includes demographic change, social trend, customer value change, social communication, and social globalization. Sometimes it is called as westernization or McDonaldization of society. In addition, the paper reviews on theories that have been frequently applied to international franchising research, such as agent theory, resource-based view, transaction cost theory, organizational learning theory, and international expansion theories. Resource based theory is used in strategic decision based on resources, like decision about entrance and cooperation depending on resources of franchisee and franchisor. Transaction cost theory can be applied in determination of mutual trust or satisfaction of franchising players. Agent theory tries to explain strategic decision for reducing problem caused by utilizing agent, for example research on control system in franchising agreements. Organizational Learning theory is relatively new in franchising research. It assumes organization tries to maximize performance and learning of organization. In addition, Internalization theory advocates strategic decision of direct investment for removing inefficiency of market transaction and is applied in research on terms of contract. And oligopolistic competition theory is used to explain various entry modes for international expansion. Competency theory support strategic decision of utilizing key competitive advantage. Furthermore, research methodologies including qualitative and quantitative methodologies are suggested for more rigorous international franchising research. Quantitative research needs more real data other than survey data which is usually respondent's judgment. In order to verify theory more rigorously, research based on real data is essential. However, real quantitative data is quite hard to get. The qualitative research other than single case study is also highly recommended. Since international franchising has limited number of applications, scientific research based on grounded theory and ethnography study can be used. Scientific case study is differentiated with single case study on its data collection method and analysis method. The key concept is triangulation in measurement, logical coding and comparison. Finally, it provides overall research direction for international franchising after summarizing research trend in Korea. International franchising research in Korea has two different types, one is for studying Korean franchisor going overseas and the other is for Korean franchisee of foreign franchisor. Among research on Korean franchisor, two common patterns are observed. First of all, they usually deal with success story of one franchisor. The other common pattern is that they focus on same industry and country. Therefore, international franchise research needs to extend their focus to broader subjects with scientific research methodology as well as development of new theory.

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