• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.223-252
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• 2008

In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.34 no.s02
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• pp.45-65
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• 1989

The Korean peninsular having the complexity of the photography and variability of climate is located within passing area of a lots of typhoon occurring from the southern islands of Philippines. So, there are various patterns of wind and flooding damages in paddy field occuring by the strong wind and the heavy rain concentrated during the summer season of rice growing period in Korea. The wind damages to rice plants in Korea were mainly caused by saline wind, dry wind and strong wind when typhoon occurred. The saline wind damage having symptom of white head or dried leaves occurred by 1.1 to 17.2 mg of salt per dry weight stuck on the plant which was located at 2. 5km away from seashore of southern coastal area during the period(from 27th to 29th, August, 1986) of typhoon &Vera& accompanying 62-96％ of relative humidity, more than 6 m per second of wind velocity and 22.5 to 26.4$^{\circ}C$ of air temperature without rain. Most of the typhoons accompanying 4.0 to 8. 5m per second of wind and low humidity (lesp an 60％) with high temperature in the east coastal area and southen area of Korea. were changed to dry and hot wind by the foehn phenomenon. The dry wind damages with the symptom of the white head or the discolored brownish grain occurred at the rice heading stage. The strong wind caused the severe damages such as the broken leaves, cut-leaves and dried leaves before heading stage, lodging and shattering of grain at ripening stage mechanically during typhoon. To reduce the wind damages to rice plant, cultivation of resistant varieties to wind damages such as Sangpoongbyeo and Cheongcheongbyeo and the escape of heading stage during period of typhoon by accelerating of heading within 15th, August are effective. Though the flood disasters to rice plant such as earring away of field, burying of field, submerging and lodging damage are getting low by the construction of dam for multiple purpose and river bank, they are occasionally occurred by the regional heavy rain and water filled out in bank around the river. Paddy field were submerged for 2 to 4 days when typhoon and heavy rain occurred about the end of August. At this time, the rice plants that was in younger growing stage in the late transplanting field of southern area of Korea had the severe damages. Although panicles of rice plant which was in the meiotic growing stage and heading stage were died when flooded, they had 66％ of yield compensating ability by the upper tilling panicle produced from tiller with dead panicle in ordinary transplanting paddy field. It is effective for reduction of flooding damages to cultivate the resistant variety to flooding having the resistance to bacterial leaf blight, lodging and small brown planthopper simultaneously. Especially, Tongil type rice varieties are relatively resistant to flooding, compared to Japonica rice varieties. Tongil type rice varieties had high survivals, low elongation ability of leaf sheath and blade, high recovering ability by the high root activity and photosynthesis and high yield compensating ability by the upper tillering panicle when flooded. To minimize the flooding and wind damage to rice plants in future, following research have to be carried out; 1. Data analysis by telemetering and computerization of climate, actual conditions and growing diagnosis of crops damaged by disasters. 2. Development of tolerant varieties to poor natural conditions related to flooding and wind damages. 3. Improvement of the reasonable cropping system by introduction of other crops compensating the loss of the damaged rice. 4. Increament of utilization of rice plant which was damaged.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.17-23
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• 1996

Purpose : To evaluate the role of combination therapy of external radio-therapy and chemotherapy in the management of advanced esophageal cancer as a primary treatment compared with radiation therapy alone. Materials and Methods : A retrospective review of evaluable 55 esophageal cancer patients referred to the Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Paik Hospital for the external radiotherapy between Jul, 1983 and Dec. 1994 was undertaken. Combined therapy patients (A group) were 30 and radiation alone patients (B group) were 25. Median age was 60 years old in A group (ranges : 42-81) and 65 years old in B group (ranges : 50-81). The male patients were 53. The fifty patients had squamous cell carcinomas. Radiation doses of 2520-6480c0y were delivered over a period of 4-7weeks, using 4MV LINAC. Chemotherapy was administered in bolus injection before, after, or during the course of external radiotherapy. The local control rate and patterns of failure according to both treatment modalities and 1, 2 year survival rates according to prognostic factors (stage, tumor length, radiation dose etc.) were analysed. Resuts : Median follow up Period was 7 months (range : 2-73 months). Median survival was 7.5 months (20 days-29 months) in A group and 5 months (20 days-73 months) in B group. The 1, 2 YSRs were $26.7\%$, $8.9\%$ in A group, $12.7\%$, $4.3\%$ in B group (p>0.05), respectively. The 1, 2 YSRs according to stage(II/III), tumor length (5cm more or less). radiation dose (5000cGymore or less) of A and B group were analyzed and the differences of survival rates of both treatments were not statistically significant. But among group B, patients who received 5000cGy or more showed significant survival benefits (p<0.05). The treatment response rates of A and B group were $43.8\%$. $25.0\%$, respectively. Complete response rate of $25.0\%$ in A and $8.3\%$ in B were achieved. The local failure and distant metastsis were $52.4\%$. $23.8\%$ in A group, $64.3\%$, $14.3\%$ in 8 group, respectively. The combination therapy revealed more frequent leukopenia and nausea/vomiting than radiation alone group, but degree of side effects was only mild to moderate. Conclusion : The combined external radiotherapy and chemotherapy for advanced esophageal cancer appears to improve the response rate, local control rate and survival rate, but the improvement was not statistically significant. The side effects of combined modalities were mild to moderate without significant morbidity. Therefore it may be worthwhile to continue the present combined external radiotherapy and chemotherapy in the management of advanced esophageal cancer to confirm our result.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.126-132
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• 2009

Purpose: We wanted to evaluate the prognostic factors for the pathologic N2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who were treated by postoperative radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 112 pN2 NSCLC patients who underwent surgery and postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) From January 1999 to February 2008. Seventy-five (67%) patients received segmentectomy or lobectomy and 37 (33%) patients received pneumonectomy. The resection margin was negative in 94 patients, and it was positive or close in 18 patients. Chemotherapy was administered to 103 (92%) patients. Nine (8%) patients received PORT alone. The median radiation dose was 54 Gy (range, 45 to 66), and the fraction size was 1.8~2 Gy. Results: The 2-year overall survival (OS) rate was 60.2% and the disease free survival (DFS) rate was 44.7% for all the patients. Univariate analysis showed that the patients with multiple-station N2 disease had significantly reduced OS and DFS (p=0.047, p=0.007) and the patients with an advanced T stage ($\geq$T3) had significantly reduced OS and DFS (p<0.001, p=0.025). A large tumor size ($\geq$5 cm) and positive lymphovascular invasion reduced the OS (p=0.035, 0.034). Using multivariate analysis, we found that multiple-station N2 disease and an advanced T stage ($\geq$T3) significantly reduced the OS and DFS. Seventy one patients (63.4%) had recurrence of disease. The patterns of failure were loco-regional in 23 (20.5%) patients, distant failure in 62 (55.4%) and combined loco-regional and distant failure in 14 (12.5%) patients. Conclusion: Multiple involvement of mediastinal nodal stations for the pN2 NSCLC patients with PORT was a poor prognostic factor in this study. A prospective study is necessary to evaluate the N2 subclassification and to optimize the adjuvant treatment.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.181-188
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• 2009

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the results of postoperative radiotherapy in a case of perihilar cholagiocarcinoma by analyzing overall survival rate, patterns of failure, prognostic factors for overall survival, and toxicity. Materials and Methods: Between January 1998 and March 2008, 38 patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma underwent a surgical resection and adjuvant radiotherapy. The median patient age was 59 years (range, 28 to 72 years), which included 23 men and 15 women. The extent of surgery was complete resection in 9 patients, microscopically positive margins in 25 patients, and a subtotal resection in 4 patients. The tumor bed and regional lymphatics initially received 45 Gy or 50 Gy, but was subsequently boosted to a total dose of 59.4 Gy or 60 Gy in incompletely resected patients. The median radiotherapy dose was 59.4 Gy. Concurrent chemotherapy was administered in 30 patients. The median follow-up period was 14 months (range, 6 to 45 months). Results: The 3-year overall survival and 3-year progression free survival rates were 30% and 8%, respectively. The median survival time was 28 months. A multivariate analysis showed that differentiation was the only significant factor for overall survival. The 3-year overall survival was 34% in R0 patients and 20% in R1 patients. No statistically significant differences in survival were found between the 2 groups (p=0.3067). The first site of failure was local in 18 patients (47%). No patient experienced grade 3 or higher acute toxicity and duodenal bleeding developed in 2 patients. Conclusion: Our results suggest that adjuvant RT might be a significant factor in patients with a positive margin following a radical resection. However, there was still a high locoregional recurrence rate following surgery and postoperative radiotherapy. Further study is necessary to enhance the effect of the adjuvant radiotherapy.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.316-322
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• 2002

Objective : A retrospective study was peformed to evaluate whether postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy can improve survival and decrease recurrence as compared with surgery alone in resected esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods : From Jan. 1985 to Dec. 1993, among 94 esophageal cancer Patients treated with surgery, fifty-one patients were included in this study. Transthoracic esophagectomy was peformed in 35 patients and transhiatal esophagectomy in 16. Postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy was peformed 4 weeks after surgery in 26 among 38 patients in stage II and III. A total dose of $30\~60\;Gy$ in 1.8 Gy daily fraction, median 54 Gy over 6 weeks, was delivered in the mediastinum+both supraclavicular lymph nodes or celiac lymph nodes according to the tumor location. Forty-seven patients$(92\%)$ had squamous histology. The median follow-up period was 38 months. Results : The overall 2-year and 5-year survival and median survival were $56.4\%,\;36.8\%$ and 45 months. Two-year and 5-year survival and median survival by stage were $92\%,\;60.3\%$ for stage I, $63\%,\;42\%$ and 51 months for stage II and $34\%,\;23\%$ and 19 months for stage III (p=0.04). For stage II and III patients, 5-year survival and median survival were $22.8\%$, 45 months for the surgery alone group and $37.8\%$, 22 months for the postoperative RT group (p=0.89). For stage III patients, 2-year survival and median survival were $0\%$, 11 months for the surgery alone group and $36.5\%$, 20 months for the postoperative RT group (p=0.14). Local and distant failure rates for stage II and III were $50\%,\;16\%$ for the surgery alone and $39\%,\;31\%$ for the postoperative RT group. For N1 patients, local failure rate was $71\%$ for the surgery alone group and $37\%$ for the postoperative RT group (p=0.19). Among 10 local failures in the postoperative RT group, in-field failures were 2, marginal failures 1, out-field 5 and anastomotic site failures 2. Conclusion : There were no statistically significant differences in either the overall survival or the patterns of failure between the surgery alone group and the postoperative RT group for resected stage II and III esophageal cancer. But this study showed a tendency of survival improvement and decrease in local failure when postoperative RT was peformed for stage III or N1 though statistically not significant. To decrease local failure, a more generous radiation field encompassing the supraclavicular, mediastinal, and celiac lymph nodes and anastomotic site in postoperative adjuvant treatment should be considered.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.353-358
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• 2002

Purpose : To investigate the clinical usefulness of a follow-up examination using serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC) for the early detection of recurrence in patients treated for conical squamous cell carcinoma. Materials and Methods : 20 patients who were treated for recurrent cervical squamous cell carcinoma between 1997 and 1998, who had experienced a complete remission after radiotherapy and who underwent an SCC test around the time when recurrence was detected, were included in this study. The levels of SCC were measured from the serum of the patients by immunoassay and values less than 2 ng/mL were regarded as normal. The sensitivity of the SCC test for use in the detection of recurrence, the association between the SCC values and the recurrence patterns and the tumor size and stage, and the temporal relation between the SCC increment and recurrence detection were evaluated. Results : The SCC values were above normal in 17 out of 20 patients, so the sensitivity of the SCC test for the detection of recurrence was $85\%$, and the mean and median of the SCC values were 15.2 and 9.5 ng/mL, respectively. No differences were observed in the SCC values according to the recurrence sites. For 11 patients, the SCC values were measured over a period of 6 months before recurrence was detected, and the mean and median values were 13.6 and 3.6 ng/mL, respectively. The SCC values of 7 patients were higher than the normal range, and the SCC values of the other 4 patients were normal but 3 among them were above 1.5 ng/mL. At the time of diagnosis, the SCC valuess were measured for 16 of the 20 recurrent patients, and the SCC values of the patients with a bulky tumor $(\geq4\;cm)$ or who were in stage IIb or III were higher than those of the patients with a non-bulky tumor or who were in stage Ib or IIa. Conclusion : The SCC test is thought to be useful for the early detection of recurrence during the follow up period in patients treated for cervical squamous cell carcinoma. When an effective salvage treatment is developed in the future, the benefit of this follow-up SCC test will be increased.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.369-377
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• 1997

Purpose : This study was Performed to identify the histopathologic feature by the reevaluation of the Pathologic specimen of the cervical tumors and to evaluate the clinical findings and the treatment results of the patients with small cell carcinoma of the cervix treated by radiotherapy. Materials and Methods : 2890 patients with cervical carcinoma received radiotherapy at the Department of Radiation Oncology. Yonsei Cancer Center, Yonsei University College of Medicine between October 1981 and April 1995. Of the 2890 patients in this data base, sixty were found to have small cell carcinomas $(2.08\%)$. Among them thirty six patients were transferred from other hospitals. the biopsy specimens of those Patients were not available. So we could review the slides of the other twenty four patients who were diagnosed at our hospital. Twenty four patients with small cell carcinoma of the cervix were analyzed retrospectively based on the assessment of H & E staining and other four immunohistochemical stains for neuroendocrine differentiation (neuron specific enolase, chromogranin. synaptophysin and Grimelius stain). And we also evaluate the Patients and tumor characteristics. response to radiation. patterns of failures, 5 year overall and disease free survival rates. Results : Thirteen tumors were neuroendocrine carcinomas(13/24 = $54.2\%$) and eleven tumors were squamous carcinomas, small cell type (11/24 = $47.8\%$) based on the assessment of H & E staining and other four neuroendocrine marker studies. So we classified the Patients two groups as neuroendocrine carcinoma and small cell type of squamous carcinoma, Among the 13 neuroendocrine carcinomas, five were well to moderately differentiated tumors and the other eight were Poorly differentiated or undifferentiated ones. The median age was 54 years old (range 23-79 years). Eight Patients had FIGO stage IB disease, 12 had stage 11, 3 had stage III and one had stage IV disease, Pelvic lymph node metastases were found in five Patients $(20.8\%)$. three of them were diagnosed by surgical histologic examination and the other two were diagnosed by CT scan. There was no difference between two histopathologic groups in terms of patients and tumor characteristics. response to radiation. 5 year overall and disease free survival rates. However the distant metastases rate was higher in neuroendocrine carcinoma Patients (6/13:$46.2\%$) than in small cell type of squamous carcinoma Patients (2/11:$18.2\%$), but there was no statistically significant difference because of the small number of patients (P>0.05). Conclusion : More than half of the small cell carcinoma of the cervix patients were neuroendocrine carcinoma (13/24 : $54.1\%$) by reevaluation of the biopsy specimen of the cervical tumors. The tendency of distant metastases of the neurolndocrine carcinoma was greater than those of the small cell type of squamous carcinoma $(46.2\%\;vs.\;18.2\%)$. But there were no differences in the patients and tumor characteristics and other clinical treatment results in both groups. These data suggest that radical local treatment such as radiotherapy or radical surgery combined with combination systemic cytotoxic chemotherapy might provide these patients with the best chance for cure.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.195-202
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• 1999

Purpose : We peformed this study to evaluate the prognostic factors and the effect of induction chemotherapy in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials and Methods : A retrospective analysis was done for 130 patients with locally advanced NSCLC treated with curative radiotherapy alone or induction chemo-radiotherapy from January 1986 to October 1996. Eighty-five patients were treated with radiotherapy alone, forty-five with induction chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Age, sex, performance status, histopathologic type, and stage were evenly distributed in both groups. The patients were treated with 6 MV or 10 MV X-ray. Conventional fractionation with daily fraction size 1$.8\~2.0$ Gy was done. Of the patients, 129 patients received total dose above 59.6 Gy ($56\~66$ Gy, median 60 Gy). Induction chemotherapy regimen were CAP (Cyclo-phosphamide, Adriamycin, Cisplatin) in 6 patients, MVP (Mitomycin, Vinblastine, Cisplatin) in 9 patients, MIC (Mitomycin, Ifosfamide Cisplatin) in 13 patients, and EP (Etoposide, Cisplatin) in 17 patients. Chemotherapy was done in $2\~5$ cycles (median 2). Results : Overall 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rate (YSR) for all patients were $41.5\%,{\;}13.7\%,{\;}and{\;}7\%$, respectively (median survival time 11 months). According to treatment modality, median survival time, overall 1-, 2-, and 3-YSR were 9 months, $32.9\%,{\;}10.\5%,{\;}6\%$ for radiotherapy alone group, and 14 months, $57.8\%,{\;}20\%,{\;}7.6\%$ for induction chemotherapy group, respectively (f=0.0005). Complete response (CR) to overall treatments was $25\%$ (21/84) in radiotherapy alone and $40.5\%$ (17/42) in induction chemotherapy group (p=0.09). The Prognostic factors affecting overall survival were hemoglobin level (p=0.04), NSE (neuron-specific enolase) level (p=0.004), and respense to overall treatment(p=0.004). According to treatment modalities, NSE (neuron-specific enolase) (p=0.006) and response to overall treatment (p=0.003) were associated with overall survival in radiotherapy alone group, and response to overall treatment (p=0.007) in induction chemotherapy group. The failure Pattern analysis revealed no significant difference between treatment modalities. But, in patients with CR to overall treatment, distant metastasis were found in 11/19 patients with radiotherapy alone, and 3/13 patients with induction chemotherapy and radiotherapy (p=0.07). Locoregional failure patterns were not different between two groups (10/19 vs 6/13). Conclusion : Induction chemotherapy and radiotherapy achieved increased 2YSR compared to radiotherapy alone, At least in CR patients, there was decreased tendency in distant metastasis with induction chemotherapy. But, locoregional failures and long-term survival were not improved. Thus, there is need of more effort to increasing local control and further decreasing distant metastasis.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.331-338
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• 1995

Purpose : To evaluate our clinical experience with the combination of teletherapy and intraluminal brachytherapy in patients with unresectable or inoperable esophageal cancers. Materials and Methods : From Nov 1989 to Mar 1993, twenty patients with esophageal cancer were treated with radical radiotherapy and intraluminal brachytherapy at Yonsei Cancer Center. All patients had squamous histolgy and stage distribution was as follows: stage II, 4($20{\%}$)patients; III, 15 ($75{\%}$)patients; IV, 1($5{\%}$)patients. A dose of S-12Gy/1-3weeks with intraluminal brachytherapy (3-5Gy/fraction) to 5mm from the outside of the esophageal tube using high dose rate Iridium-192 remotely afterloading brachytherapy machine was given 2 weeks after a total dose of 59-64Gy with external radiotherapy. Induction chemotherapy using cisplatin and 5-FU was performed in 13 patients with median 3 cycles(1-6 cycles), Response rate, local control rate, survival and complications were analysed retrospectively. Results : Two-year overall survival rate and median survival were $15.8{\%}$ and 13.5 months. Response rates were as follows complete remission(CR) 5($25{\%}$): partial remission a(PRa) 7($35{\%}$): partial remission b(PRb) 7($35{\%}$), no response(NR) 1($5{\%}$). Patterns of failure were as follows; local failure 13($65{\%}$), local and distant failure 3($15{\%}$), distant failure 0($0{\%}$). Ultimate local control rate was $20{\%}$. Treatment related complications included esophageal ulcer in two patients and esophageal stricture in one. Conclusion : Though poor local conrol rate, median survival was improved as compared with previous results of radiation therapy alone(8months) and chemoradiation combined treatment(11 months) in Yonsei Cancer Center High-dose-rate intraluminal brachytherapy following external irradiation is an effective treatment modality with acceptable toxicity in esophageal cancer.