• Title/Summary/Keyword: Parametric Estimation

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The Price of Risk in the Korean Stock Distribution Market after the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 이후 한국 주식유통시장의 위험가격에 관한 연구)

  • Sohn, Kyoung-Woo;Liu, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate risk price implied from the pricing kernel of Korean stock distribution market. Recently, it is considered that the quantitative easing programs of major developed countries are contributing to a reduction in global uncertainty caused by the 2007~2009 financial crisis. If true, the risk premium as compensation for global systemic risk or economic uncertainty should show a decrease. We examine whether the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market has declined in recent years, and attempt to provide practical implications for investors to manage their portfolios more efficiently, as well as academic implications. Research design, data and methodology - To estimate the risk price, we adopt a non-parametric method; the minimum norm pricing kernel method under the LOP (Law of One Price) constraint. For the estimation, we use 17 industry sorted portfolios provided by the KRX (Korea Exchange). Additionally, the monthly returns of the 17 industry sorted portfolios, from July 2000 to June 2014, are utilized as data samples. We set 120 months (10 years) as the estimation window, and estimate the risk prices from July 2010 to June 2014 by month. Moreover, we analyze correlation between any of the two industry portfolios within the 17 industry portfolios to suggest further economic implications of the risk price we estimate. Results - According to our results, the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market shows a decline over the period of July 2010 to June 2014 with statistical significance. During the period of the declining risk price, the average correlation level between any of the two industry portfolios also shows a decrease, whereas the standard deviation of the average correlation shows an increase. The results imply that the amount of systematic risk in the Korea stock distribution market has decreased, whereas the amount of industry-specific risk has increased. It is one of the well known empirical results that correlation and uncertainty are positively correlated, therefore, the declining correlation may be the result of decreased global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, less asset correlation enables investors to build portfolios with less systematic risk, therefore the investors require lower risk premiums for the efficient portfolio, resulting in the declining risk price. Conclusions - Our results may provide evidence of reduction in global systemic risk or economic uncertainty in the Korean stock distribution market. However, to defend the argument, further analysis should be done. For instance, the change of global uncertainty could be measured with funding costs in the global money market; subsequently, the relation between global uncertainty and the price of risk might be directly observable. In addition, as time goes by, observations of the risk price could be extended, enabling us to confirm the relation between the global uncertainty and the effect of quantitative easing. These topics are beyond our scope here, therefore we reserve them for future research.

Analysis of soil coarse pore fraction by major factors for evaluation of water conservation function potential in forest soil (산림토양의 수원함양기능 잠재력 평가를 위한 주요 인자별 토양 조공극률 분석)

  • Li, Qiwen;Lim, Hong-Geun;Moon, Hae-Won;Nam, Soo-Youn;Kim, Jae-Hoon;Choi, Hyung-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.35-50
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    • 2022
  • As the water shortage has become a noticeable issue due to climate change, forests play an importance role as the provider of water supply service. There is, however, little information about the relationships between the factors used in the estimation of water supply service and coarse pore fraction of forest soil which determines the potential of water supply. To find out whether there would be an amelioration in the scoring system of water supply service estimation, we examined all factors except meteorological one and additionally, analyzed 4 extra factors that might be related with coarse pore fraction of soil. A total of 2,214 soil samples were collected throughout South Korea to measure coarse pore fractions from 2015 to 2020. First, the result of average coarse pore fraction of all samples showed 32.98±6.59% which was consistent with previous studies. And the results of non-parametric analysis of variance indicated that only two of eleven factors that was used in the scoring system matched the results of coarse pore fraction of forest soils. Tree canopy coverage showed no difference among categories, and slope also showed no significance at level of 0.05 in the linear regression analysis. Additionally, the applicability of 4 extra factors were confirmed, as the result of coarse pore fractions of soil samples were different for various categories of each factor. Therefore, the scoring system of water supply service of forest should be revised to improve accuracy.

An Estimation Method of Settlement and the Behaviour Characteristics of Granular Compaction Pile Reinforced with Uniformly Graded Permeable Concrete (등입도 투수성 콘크리트 보강 조립토 다짐말뚝의 거동특성 및 침하량 평가기법)

  • Kim, Jeong-Ho;Kim, Seung-Wook;Kim, Hong-Taek;Hwang, Jeong-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.73-83
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    • 2006
  • The behaviour characteristics of Granular Compaction Pile (GCP) are mainly governed by the lateral confining pressure mobilized in the soft soil matrix to restrain the bulging failure of the granular compaction pile. The GCP method is most effective in soft soil with undrained shear strength ranging $15{\sim}50kPa$. However, the efficiency of this method reduces the more compressible soil conditions, which does not provide sufficient lateral confinement. In the present study, the GCP method reinforced with uniformly graded permeable concrete is suggested for the extension of application to the soft ground. Also, large triaxial compression tests are conducted on composite-reinforced soil samples for verification of availability of the suggested method and the settlement estimation method of the reinforced GCP is proposed. Furthermore, for the verification of the proposed method, predicted settlements by the proposed method are compared with results of 3-dimensional numerical analyses. In addition, parametric studies are performed together with detailed analyses of relevant design parameters.

Dynamic Performance Estimation of the Incrementally PSC Girder Railway Bridge by Modal Tests and Moving Load Analysis (다단계 긴장 PSC 거더 철도교량의 동특성 실험 및 주행열차하중 해석에 의한 동적성능 평가)

  • Kim, Sung Il;Kim, Nam Sik;Lee, Hee Up
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4A
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    • pp.707-717
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    • 2006
  • As an alternative to conventional prestressed concrete (PSC) girders, various types of PSC girders are either under development or have already been applied in bridge structures. Incrementally prestressed concrete girder is one of these newly developed girders. According to the design concept, these new types of PSC girders have the advantages of requiring less self-weight while having the capability of longer spans. However, the dynamic interaction between bridge superstructures and passing trains is one of the critical issues concerning these railway bridges designed with more flexibility. Therefore, it is very important to evaluate modal parameters of newly designed bridges before doing dynamic analyses. In the present paper, a 25 meters long full scale PSC girder was fabricated as a test specimen and modal testing was carried out to evaluate modal parameters including natural frequencies and modal damping ratios at every prestressing stage. During the modal testing, a digitally controlled vibration exciter as well as an impact hammer is applied, in order to obtain precise frequency response functions and the modal parameters are evaluated varying with construction stages. Prestressed force effects on changes of modal parameters are analyzed at every incremental prestressing stage. With the application of reliable properties from modal experiments, estimation of dynamic performances of PSC girder railway bridges can be obtained from various parametric studies on dynamic behavior under the passage of moving train. Dynamic displacements, impact factor, acceleration of the slab, end rotation of the girder, and other important dynamic performance parameters are checked with various speeds of the train.

Quantification of Cerebrovascular Reserve Using Tc-99m HMPAO Brain SPECT and Lassen's Algorithm (Tc-99m HMPAO 뇌 SPECT와 Lassen 알고리즘을 이용한 뇌혈관 예비능의 정량화)

  • Kim, Kyeong-Min;Lee, Dong-Soo;Kim, Seok-Ki;Lee, Jae-Sung;Kang, Keon-Wook;Yeo, Jeong-Seok;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.322-335
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: For quantitative estimation of cerebrovascular reserve (CVR), we estimated the cerebral blood flow (CBF) using Lassen's nonlinearity correction algorithm and Tc-99m HMPAO brain SPECT images acquired with consecutive acquisition protocol. Using the values of CBF in basal and acetaBolamide (ACZ) stress states, CBF increase was calculated. Materials and Methods: In 9 normal subjects (age; $72{\pm}4$ years), brain SPECT was performed at basal and ACZ stress states consecutively after injection of 555 MBq and 1,110 MBq of Tc-99m HMPAO, respectively. Cerebellum was automatically extracted as reference region on basal SPECT image using threshold method. Assuming basal CBF of cerebellum as 55 ml/100g/min, CBF was calculated lot every pixel at basal states using Lassen's algorithm. Cerebellar blood flow at stress was estimated comparing counts of cerebellum at rest and ACZ stress and Lassen's algorithm. CBF of every pixel at ACZ stress state was calculated using Lassen's algorithm and ACZ cerebellar count. CVR was calculated by subtracting basal CBF from ACZ stress CBF for every pixel. The percent CVR was calculated by dividing CVR by basal CBF. The CBF and percentage CVR parametric images were generated. Results: The CBF and percentage CVR parametric images were obtained successfully in all the subjects. Global mean CBF were $49.6{\pm}5.5ml/100g/min\;and\;64.4{\pm}10.2ml/100g/min$ at basal and ACZ stress states, respectively. The increase of CBF at ACZ stress state was $14.7{\pm}9.6ml/100g/min$. The global mean percent CVR was 30.7% and was higher than the 13.8% calculated using count images. Conclusion: The blood flow at basal and ACZ stress states and cerebrovascular reserve were estimated using basal/ACZ Tc-99m-HMPAO SPECT images and Lassen's algorithm. Using these values, parametric images for blood flow and cerebrovascular reserve were generated.

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3D Facial Animation with Head Motion Estimation and Facial Expression Cloning (얼굴 모션 추정과 표정 복제에 의한 3차원 얼굴 애니메이션)

  • Kwon, Oh-Ryun;Chun, Jun-Chul
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.14B no.4
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    • pp.311-320
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents vision-based 3D facial expression animation technique and system which provide the robust 3D head pose estimation and real-time facial expression control. Many researches of 3D face animation have been done for the facial expression control itself rather than focusing on 3D head motion tracking. However, the head motion tracking is one of critical issues to be solved for developing realistic facial animation. In this research, we developed an integrated animation system that includes 3D head motion tracking and facial expression control at the same time. The proposed system consists of three major phases: face detection, 3D head motion tracking, and facial expression control. For face detection, with the non-parametric HT skin color model and template matching, we can detect the facial region efficiently from video frame. For 3D head motion tracking, we exploit the cylindrical head model that is projected to the initial head motion template. Given an initial reference template of the face image and the corresponding head motion, the cylindrical head model is created and the foil head motion is traced based on the optical flow method. For the facial expression cloning we utilize the feature-based method, The major facial feature points are detected by the geometry of information of the face with template matching and traced by optical flow. Since the locations of varying feature points are composed of head motion and facial expression information, the animation parameters which describe the variation of the facial features are acquired from geometrically transformed frontal head pose image. Finally, the facial expression cloning is done by two fitting process. The control points of the 3D model are varied applying the animation parameters to the face model, and the non-feature points around the control points are changed by use of Radial Basis Function(RBF). From the experiment, we can prove that the developed vision-based animation system can create realistic facial animation with robust head pose estimation and facial variation from input video image.

Estimating the Reliability of Commercial Products in a Military Operational Environment Utilizing Field Data (사용현장 데이터를 이용한 군 운용 환경에서의 상용품목 신뢰도 예측)

  • Lim, Tae-Jin;Park, Joon-Soo;Ko, Byoung-Sung;Sung, In-Chul;Cho, Moon-Soo;Kim, Sung-Chul
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2010
  • Adapting commercial equipments to military operations may provide the advantage of low cost, reduced acquisition time, and technology advancement. On the other hand, it may also offer the opportunity for a reliability and logistics risk because commercial products, standards, and practices may not meet military requirements. In addition to this, commercial vendors have little experience in providing the technical data required to support military deployment logistics. As more companies are equipped with data aquisition systems for their products, considerable amount of field warranty data has been accumulated. Typically, the field data for a given product comprise with the sales volume and the number of the claims for each period. Three types of product data are considered in this study: military designed equipment operating in a military environment, commercial equipment operating in a military environment, and commercial equipment operating in a commercial environment. We construct a estimation model for each type of data and propose an reliability transform method from a commercial environment to a military environment. Parametric methods for estimating the product reliability are proposed based on maximum likelihood criteria and least square criteria. Then a reliability transform procedure for handling different types of data is proposed in a consistent fashion. A case study is investigated to characterize our model based on a real field warranty data set.

Suggestion of the Settlement Estimation Method for Granular Compaction files Considering Lateral Deformations (횡방향 변형을 고려한 조립토 다짐말뚝의 침하량 평가기법 제안)

  • Hwang Jung-Soon;Kim Hong-Taek;Kim Seung-Wook;Koh Yong-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2005
  • In cases of the loosely accumulated ground and soft clayey soils, the settlement criterion usually governs in evaluating the stability of structures. The settlement is also a dominant factor to control the design of granular compaction piles mainly applied to the reinforcement of foundation structures in soft ground. In the previous studies, settlement behaviors of granular compaction piles have generally been analyzed with an evaluation of the settlement reduction factor based on the load-sharing ratio and the replacement ratio. In this approach, however, since the reinforced ground with granular compaction piles is simplified as the composite ground, only the difference of a relative vertical strength between piles and soils is taken into account without reflecting lateral behaviors of granular compaction piles. In the present study, the method of estimating the settlement of granular compaction piles is proposed by synthetically considering a vertical strength of the ground, lateral behaviors of granular compaction piles, the strength of pile materials, a pile diameter, and an installation distance of the pile. Further, far the verification of a validity of the proposed method, predicted settlements are compared with results from previous studies. In addition, parametric studies are performed together with detailed analyses of relevant design parameters.

Three-Dimensional Limit Equilibrium Stability Analysis of the Irregularly Shaped Excavation Comer with Skew Soil Nailing System

  • Kim, Hong Taek;Par
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.73-94
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    • 1998
  • In the present study, a method of the three-dimensional limit equilibrium stability analysis of shape of the potential failure wedge for the concave-shaped excavation corner is assumed on the basis of the results of the FLACSU program analysis. Estimation of the three-dimensional seepage forces expected to act on the failure wedge is made by solving the three-dimensional continuity equation of flow with appropriate boundary conditions. By using the proposed method of three-dimensional stability analysis of the concave-shaped excavation corner, a parametric study is performed to examine the reinforcement effect of skew soil nailing system, range of the efficient skew angles and seepage effect on the overall stability. Also examined is the effect of an existence of the right-angled excavation corner on three-dimensional deflection behaviors of the convex-shaped skew soil nailing walls. The results of analyses of the convexshaped excavation corner with skew soil nailing system is further included to illustrate the effects of various design parameters for typical patterns of skew nails reinforcement system.

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Duration to First Job of Korean Young Graduates: Before and After the Economic Crisis (청년층의 첫 일자리 진입 : 경제위기 전후의 비교)

  • Ahn, Joyup;Hong, Seo Yeon
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.47-74
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    • 2002
  • Since the Economic Crisis at the end of 1997, unemployment rate soared up to the record-high 8.6% (February 1999) and, for youth aged 15~29, it was 14.6% (27.8% for aged 15~19). In spite of economic recovery after the crisis, new participants in labor market at the school-to-work transition have faced with difficulties in finding their first jobs and, even further, the ratio of youth at out-of the labor force but not in school has remained at a higher level. It is important to calibrate the negative effects of nonemployment in the short-run as well as in the long-run, but there has been few study on the school-to-work transition in Korea. This study focus on the nonemployment duration to first job after formal education and comparison of its pattern before and after the crisis. A proportional hazard model, considering job prenaration before graduation (21.4% of the sample), with the semi-parametric baseline hazard is applied to the sample from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey(1998~2000) and its Youth Supplemental survey(2000). Interview of the Survey is conducted, by the Korea Labor Institute, to the same 5,000 household and 13,738 individual sample, guaranteeing nationwide representativeness. The Supplemental Survey consists of 3,302 young individuals aged 15 to 29 at the time of survey and 1,615 of them who are not in school and provide appropriate information is used for the analysis. The empirical results show that there exists negative duration dependence at the first three or for months at the transition period and no duration dependence since a turning point of the baseline hazard rate and that unemployment rate reflecting labor demand conditions has a positive effect on exiting the nonemployment state, which is inconsistent with a theoretical conclusion. Estimation with samples separated by the date of graduation before and after the crisis shows that the effect of unemployment rate on the hazard was negative for the pre-crisis sample but positive for the post-crisis sample.

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