• Title/Summary/Keyword: Parameters Sensitivity

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Evaluation of Serological Surveillance System for Improving Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control (구제역 관리를 위한 혈청학적 예찰계획 평가)

  • Pak, Son-Il;Shin, Yeun-Kyung
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.258-263
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    • 2013
  • The primary goal of this study was to compute sample sizes required to achieve the each aim of a variety of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) surveillance programs, using a statistically valid technique that takes the following factors into account: sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of diagnostic test system, desired minimum detectable prevalence, precision, population size, and desired power of the survey. In addition, sample sizes to detect FMD if the disease is present and also as proof of freedom were computed. The current FMD active surveillance programs consist of clinical, virological, and serological surveillance. For the 2012 serological surveillance, annual sample sizes (n = 265,065) are planned at four separate levels: statistical (n = 60,884) and targeted (n = 115,232) at breeding pig farms and slaughter house, in together with the detection of structural proteins (SP) antibodies against FMD (n = 88,949). Overall, the sample size was not designed taking the specific aims of each surveillance stream into account. The sample sizes for statistical surveillance, assuming stratified two-stage sampling technique, was based to detect at least one FMD-infected case in the general population. The resulting sample size can be used to obtain evidence of freedom from FMD infection, not for detecting animals that have antibodies against FMD virus non-structural proteins (NSP). Additionally, sample sizes for targeted surveillance were not aimed for the population at risk, and also without consideration of statistical point of view. To at least the author's knowledge, sampling plan for targeted, breeding pig farms and slaughter house is not necessary and need to be included in the part of statistical surveillance. Assuming design prevalence of 10% in an infinite population, a total of 29 animals are required to detect at least one positive with probability of 95%, using perfect diagnostic test system (Se = Sp = 100%). A total of 57,211 animals needed to be sampled to give 95% confidence of estimating SP prevalence of 80% at the individual animal-level with a precision of ${\pm}5%$, assuming 800 herds with an average 200 heads per farm, within-farm variance of 0.2, between-farm variance of 0.05, cost ratio of 100:1 of farm against animals. Furthermore, 779,736 animals were required to demonstrate FMD freedom, and the sample size can further be reduced depending on the parameters assumed.

Differentiation of Vocal Cyst and Polyp by High-Piched Phonation Characteristics (성대낭종과 성대폴립 간의 고음발성 양상의 차이)

  • Lee, Jong-Ik;Jeong, Go-Eun;Kim, Seong-Tae;Kim, Sang-Yeon;Nam, Soon-Yuhl;Kim, Sang-Yoon;Roh, Jong-Lyel;Choi, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.48-51
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    • 2012
  • Background and Objectives : Vocal fold cyst is generally treated by surgical resection, it has a difference with vocal fold polyp, treated by conservative management first. Decrease in mucosal waves is known as main diagnostic criteria of vocal fold cyst. Sometimes there is a difficulty for diffrential diagnosis between cyst and polyp only by endoscopic examination. The purpose of the study is to identify the objective features of vocal cyst and polyp on the basis of voice analysis for the proper differential diagnosis, especially at high pitched phonation. Materials and Method : The voice analysis was done in 15 focal fold cyst patients and 42 vocal fold polyp. Parameters of perceptual assessment, acoustic and aerodynamic measure, and voice range profile were compared between two groups. Results : Vocal fold cyst patients showed significantly reduced MPT by acoustic and aerodynamic analysis, narrowed frequency-range and low maximun frequency by voice range profile analysis compared with vocal fold polyp patient. Maximun frequency 381 Hz is established for cut off value, differential diagnosis between cyst and polyp (ROC analysis, sensitivity 60%, specificity 68%). Conclusion : Voice analysis is helpful for differential diagnosis between vocal fold cyst and polyp, especially there is a difficulty for distinguish cyst from polyp at clinical situation by endoscopic examination. The result of decreased maximum frequncy at vocal fold cyst supports incomplete high-pitched phonation and falsetto regester at vocal fold cyst patients due to decreased mucosal wave, compared with vocal fold polyp patients.

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Practical Approach to the Diagnosis of Pediatric Nasal Bone Fractures (소아 환자의 코뼈 골절 진단을 위한 실제적 접근)

  • Lee, Yulkok;Oh, Sungchan;Cho, Sukjin;Kim, Hyejin;Kang, Taekyung;Choi, Seungwoon;Yoo, Hanbin;Ryu, Seokyong
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Nasal bone fractures are the most common childhood facial bone fractures, with an incidence of about 39%. While taking a nasal bone x-ray is a common modality used in the emergency department, reports have expressed concerns with its low sensitivity and low specificity. Our study was aimed at comparing accuracy of physical and x-ray examination with that of facial bone computed tomography (CT). Methods: Electronic medical records (EMR) were retrospectively reviewed for patients under the age of 15 who visited our emergency department from January 2010 to December 2011with a chief complaint of nasal pain due to trauma and who had also undergone a nasal bone x-ray and facial bone CT. Patients who had not taken facial bone CT, who had been transferred, and who did not have EMR were excluded. We divided the patients into 2 groups, those who had nasal bone fractures and those without a fracture on their facial bone CT. We analyzed other parameters such as age, sex, and type of fracture to find statistical differences between the two groups. Results: A total of 209 patients were included. The patients with nasal bone fractures on their facial bone CT were older, and their traumas were more violent. Ten patients who had apparent nasal bone fractures on their facial bone CT had no definite signs of a fracture on their plain x-ray. Conclusion: Though facial bone CT is an effective modality in detecting nasal bone fractures, in evaluating younger patients suspected of having nasal bone fractures, prudent use of facial bone CT is needed to reduce unnecessary exposure to radiation.

Evaluation of DNA Double Strand Breaks in Human and Mouse Lymphocyte Following ${\gamma}-Irradiation$ (${\gamma}-Ray$ 조사에 따른 사람의 정상임파구와 마우스 정상임파구의 DNA Double Strand Break 발생율에 대한 비교분석)

  • Kim Tae Hwan;Kim Sung Ho;Chung In Yong;Cho Chul Koo;Ko Kyung Hwan;Yoo Seong Yul
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.219-225
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    • 1993
  • The evaluation of radiation-induced DNA double strand breaks (DSB) was made following irradiation of human lymphocytes, murine lymphocytes and EL-4 leukemia cells over a wide dose range of $^{60}Co\;{gamma}-rays.$ In lipopolysaccharide (LPS) or phytohemagglutinin (PHA)-stimulated murine lymphocytes, the slopes of the stand scission factor (SSF) revealed that lymphocytes with LPS increased DNA DSB formation by a factor of 1.432 (p<0.005). Furthermore, strand break production was relatively inefficient in the T lymphocytes compared to the B lymuhocytes. And EL-4 leukemia cells were found to form significantly more DNA DSB to a greater extent than normal lymphocytes (p<0.005). The in vitro studies of the intrinsic radiosensitivity between human lymphocytes and murine lymphocytes showed similar phasic kinetics. However, murine lymphocytes were lower in DNA DSB formation and higher in the relative radiation dose of 10 percent DNA strand breaks at 3.5 hours following ${gamma}-irradiation$ than human lymphocytes. Though it is difficult to interpret these results, these differences may be result from environmental and genetic factors. From our data, if complementary explanations for this difference will be proposed, the differences in the dose-effect relationship for the induction of DSB between humans and mice must be related to interspecies variations in the physiological condition of the peripheral blood in vitro and not to differences in the intrinsic radiation sensitivity of the lymphocytes. These results can be estimated on the basis of dose-effect correlation enabling the interpretation of clinical response and the radiobiological parameters of cytometrical assessment.

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Characteristics of dairy goat milk positive reaction of the alcohol precipitation test in Korea (우리나라 유산양 알코올 양성유의 특징에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hye-Ra;Jung, Ji-Young;Cho, In-Young;Yu, Do-Hyeon;Shin, Sung-Shik;Son, Chang-Ho;Ok, Ki-Seok;Hur, Tai-Young;Jung, Young-Hun;Choi, Chang-Yong;Suh, Guk-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Service
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.255-261
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    • 2013
  • The objective of the present study was to determine the minimum alcohol (ethanol) concentration that gives rise to the coagulation of goat milk for the alcohol precipitation test, and to evaluate the physical parameters of goat milk which include alcohol and heat stability. A total of 1,295 udder-half milk samples from 648 lactating dairy goats were collected from seven farms in Jeonnam province, Republic of Korea, to determine the alcohol and heat stability. The majority (99.6%) of the samples were coagulated when 70% ethanol was added to the milk, while only 11.0% of the samples were precipitated by the addition of an equal volume of 45% ethanol. With the concentration of 65%, 60%, 55% and 50% aqueous ethanol, 99.2%, 96.8%, 81.0% and 52.8% of the milk samples were coagulated, respectively. Of 1,295 dairy goat milk samples tested for heat stability, 127 (9.8%) were coagulated by boiling. Among the 143 alcohol test-positive udder-half milk samples, 52 (4.0%) were unstable by heat test, while 1,032 (79.7%) of the 1,152 alcohol test-negative milk samples were stable by heat test. According to the results of boiling test, sensitivity and specificity of 45% alcohol precipitation test were 0.3023 (95% CI: 0.2346~0.3772) and 0.9190 (95% CI: 0.9017~0.9344), respectively. The contents of protein and the specific gravity were higher in the milk samples of 45% alcohol test-positive than in those of 45% alcohol test-negative. However, lower levels of lactose and milk urea nitrogen were observed in the milk samples of 45% alcohol test-positive compared to the alcohol test-negative milk samples. The lowest pH values ($6.73{\pm}0.20$) were shown in the 45% alcohol test-negative and heat-unstable milk samples, while the lowest values of somatic cell counts and bacterial counts were shown in the 45% alcohol test-negative and heat-stable milk samples. Results of this study suggest that the alcohol precipitation for dairy goat milk may have to be tested with ethanol concentration less than 45% for the determination of freshness and heat-stability.

Sensitivity Analysis of the MUSIC Model Parameters (MUSIC모형의 매개변수에 관한 민감도 분석)

  • Im, Jang-Hyuk;Yeoun, Ji-Woong;Park, Sung-Sik;Song, Jai-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.236-240
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    • 2007
  • 최근 집중호우에 의한 피해가 증가함에 따라 도시화에 따른 불투수 면적이 유출량 증가의 주요한 원인으로 지목되고 있으며 도시의 인구집중으로 인한 지하수의 난개발로 지하수 오염 및 고갈이 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 이에 도시의 지속적이고 건전한 물 관리를 위하여 우수유출저감시설이 고려되고 있으며, 정량적인 저감효과의 분석방법이 요구되고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 호주에서 물관리 및 우수유출저감을 고려한 도시유역계획을 위해 이용되고 있는 모형에 대한 민감도 분석을 실시하였으며, 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 MUSIC 향후 국내 우수유출저감시설에 관한 수문 해석시 MUSIC의 적용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다. MUSIC의 매개변수 중 불투수율과 토양특성이 매우 중요한 매개변수로 고려되고 있으므로, 본 연구에서는 투수지역의 최대저류깊이, Soil storage(mm), 강우초기 최대저류깊이의 포화정도 Initial storage(%), 지하수위에 도달할 수 있는 Field capacity(mm), 최대 침투율에 영향을 미치는 건조토양상태의 침투율을 정의하는 계수 a와 함수비 증가에 따른 최대 침투율 감소를 정의하는 지수 b 등의 매개변수에 대해 초기값을 중심으로 일정비율로 각 매개변수를 10단계로 구분하여 민감도 분석을 실시하였다. 주요 매개변수의 민감도 분석 결과로부터 MUSIC의 모의를 위해서는 불투수율의 민감도 변화 범위가 가장 넓고 첨두유출량과 총유출량 변화가 함께 일어나므로, 이를 가장 우선적으로 조정하고 이와 함께 토양특성을 반영하는 Soil storage와 Initial storage를 고려한다면 MUSIC을 이용하여 개발에 의한 유출변화와 다양한 우수침투시설 설치에 따른 저감효과를 합리적으로 예측할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 물 관리를 요구하게 되었다. 우리나라는 현실적으로 매년 홍수 피해가 발생하고 있지만, 다른 한편 인구밀도가 높고 1인당 가용 수자원이 상대적으로 적기 때문에 국지적 물 부족 문제를 경험하고 있다. 최근 국제적으로도 농업용수의 물 낭비 최소화와 절약 노력 및 타 분야 물 수요 증대에 대한 대응 능력 제고가 매우 중요한 과제로 부각되고 있다. 2006년 3월 멕시코에서 개최된 제4차 세계 물 포럼에서 국제 강 네트워크는 "세계 물 위기의 주범은 농경지", "농민들은 모든 물 위기 논의에서 핵심"이라고 주장하고, 전 프랑스 총리 미셀 로카르는 "...관개시설에 큰 문제점이 있고 덜 조방적 농업을 하도록 농민들을 설득해야 한다. 이는 전체 농경법을 바꾸는 문제..."(segye.com, 2006. 3. 19)라고 주장하는 등 세계 물 문제 해결을 위해서는 농업용수의 효율적 이용 관리가 중요함을 강조하였다. 본 연구는 이러한 국내외 여건 및 정책 환경 변화에 적극적으로 대처하고 물 분쟁에 따른 갈등해소 전략 수립과 효율적인 물 배분 및 이용을 위한 기초연구로서 농업용수 수리권과 관련된 법 및 제도를 분석하였다.. 삼요소의 시용 시험결과 그 적량은 10a당 질소 10kg, 인산 5kg, 및 가리 6kg 정도였으며 질소는 8kg 이상의 경우에는 분시할수록 비효가 높았으며 특히 벼의 후기 중점시비에 의하여 1수영화수와 결실율의 증대가 크게 이루어졌다. 3. 파종기와 파종량에 관한 시험결과는 공시품종선단의 파종적기는 4월 25일부터 5월 10일경까지 인데 이 기간중 일찍 파종하는 경우에 파종적량은 10a당 약 8${\ell}$이고 늦은 경우에는 12${\ell}$ 정도였다. 여기서 늦게 파종한 경우 감수의 가장

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Gastrointestinal and Hepatic First-pass Effects of Triflusal in Rats (흰쥐에서 트리플루살의 위장관 및 간 초회통과효과)

  • Cho, Hea-Young;Jeong, Tae-Jin;Lee, Yong-Bok
    • Journal of Pharmaceutical Investigation
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.265-271
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    • 2001
  • In order to elucidate the influence of intestinal and hepatic first-pass effect on the pharmacokinetics of triflusal, the biotransformation of triflusal in the gastrointestinal tract and liver was designed. Moreover, we tried to establish an HPLC method applicable for bioassay and available to pharmacokinetics, not only with the simultaneous determination of triflusal and its active metabolite, 2-hydroxy-4-trifluoromethyl benzoic acid (HTB), but also with improving sensitivity. After the administration of triflusal (10 mg/kg) and HTB (10 mg/kg) into femoral vein, portal vein (only triflusal) and oral route (only triflusal), pharmacokinetic parameters were investigated from the plasma concentration-time profiles of triflusal and HTB in rats. An HPLC method was developed for the simultaneous determination of triflusal and HTB in rat plasma, urine and bile. The HPLC analysis was carried out using a C18 column and acetonitrile-methanol-water (25:10:65, v/v/v) as the mobile phase and UV detection at 234 nm. Furosemide was used as the internal standard. The calibration curves were linear over the concentration range $0.05-5.0\;{\mu}g/ml$ for triflusal and $0.2-200.0\;{\mu}g/ml$ for HTB with correlation coefficients greater than 0.999 and with intra-day or inter-day coefficients of variation not exceeding 10.0%. This assay procedure was applied to the study of metabolite pharmacokinetics of triflusal and HTB in rats. It was supposed that triflusal was almost metabolized in vivo because urinary and biliary excreted amounts of triflusal could be ignored as it was lower than 1.2% of the administered dose. According to the gastrointestinal and hepatic biotransformation pathways of triflusal, it was found that triflusal was hydrolyzed by about 5% in intestine and metabolized by about 53% in liver, and that the bioavailability of triflusal after oral administration of triflusal was 0.44, and also that the fraction of total elimination rate of triflusal which formed HTB in liver $(F_{mi},\;%)$ was about 98%. These results showed that triflusal was almost metabolized in liver, and the total elimination of triflusal in the body was dependent to the formation rate of HTB from triflusal in liver.

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Changes of Drought Tolerance and Photosynthetic Characteristics of Populus davidiana Dode According to PEG Concentration (PEG농도에 따른 사시나무의 내건성과 광합성 특성의 변화)

  • Oh Chang-Young;Han Sim-Hee;Kim Yong-Yul;Lee Jae-Cheon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.296-302
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    • 2005
  • We investigated changes in photosynthetic characteristics of P. davidiana in order to understand damage patterns to photosynthetic apparatus under drought stress. Root sprout saplings of P. davildiana were treated with $0\%,\;2\%,\;5\%,\;and\;10\%$ of 300ml polyethylene glycol (PEG) once a weer far one month. After one month, we measured photosynthetic parameters and analyzed the photochemical and $CO_2$ fixation systems. Photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, and respiration rate in the leaves of P. davildiana decreased according to increasing stress strength. In the photochemical system, quantum yield of PSII was reduced by the increment of PEG concentration, The decrease of apparent quantum yield was related to reduction of electron transport. Respiration rate decreased with an increase in PEG concentration, whereas photorespiration rate in the $CO_2$ fixation system increased. In conclusion, photosynthesis of P. davidiana responded sensitively under drought stress, and the sensitivity depended upon the strength of water stress. P. davidiana exhibited an increase of water use efficiency under water stress.

Prediction of Brobchodilator Response by Using $FEF_{25{\sim}75%}$ in Adult Patient with a Normal Spirometry Result (정상 폐활량을 보이는 성인 환자에서 $FEF_{25{\sim}75%}$를 통한 기관지확장제 반응의 예견)

  • Park, Se-Hwan;Lee, Seung-Yup;Kang, Seung-Mo;Seon, Choon-Sik;Kim, Hyun-Kyung;Lee, Byoung-Hoon;Lee, Jae-Hyung;Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.71 no.3
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    • pp.188-194
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    • 2011
  • Background: When patients with chronic respiratory symptoms have a normal spirometry result, it is not always easy to consider bronchial asthma as the preferential diagnosis. Forced expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of vital capacity ($FEF_{25{\sim}75%}$) is known as a useful diagnostic value of small airway diseases. However, it is not commonly used, because of its high individual variability. We evaluated the pattern of bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR) and the correlation between $FEF_{25{\sim}75%}$ and BDR in patients with suspicious asthma and normal spirometry. Methods: Among patients with suspicious bronchial asthma, 440 adult patients with a normal spirometry result (forced expiratory volume in one second [$FEV_1$]/forced vital capacity [FVC] ${\geq}70%$ & $FEV_1%$ predicted ${\geq}80%$) were enrolled. We divided this group into a positive BDR group (n=43) and negative BDR group (n=397), based on the result of BDR. A comparison was carried out of spirometric parameters with % change of $FEV_1$ after bronchodilator (${\Delta}FEV_1%$). Results: Among the 440 patients with normal spirometry, $FEF_{25{\sim}75%}%$ predicted were negatively correlated with ${\Delta}FEV_1%$ (r=-0.22, p<0.01), and BDR was positive in 43 patients (9.78%). The means of $FEF_{25{\sim}75%}%$ predicted were $64.0{\pm}14.5%$ in the BDR (+) group and $72.9{\pm}20.8%$ in the BDR (-) group (p<0.01). The negative correlation between $FEF_{25{\sim}75%}%$ predicted and ${\Delta}FEV_1%$ was stronger in the BDR (+) group (r=-0.38, p=0.01) than in the BDR (-) group (r=-0.17, p<0.01). In the ROC curve analysis, $FEF_{25{\sim}75%}$ at 75% of predicted value had 88.3% sensitivity and 40.3% specificity for detecting a positive BDR. Conclusion: BDR (+) was not rare in patients with suspicious asthma and normal spirometry. In these patients, $FEF_{25{\sim}75%}%$ predicted was well correlated with BDR.

Optimal Design and Economic Evaluation of Energy Supply System from On/Off Shore Wind Farms (육/해상 풍력기반 에너지생산 공정 최적 설계 및 경제성 평가)

  • Kim, Minsoo;Kim, Jiyong
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.156-163
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a new framework for design and economic evaluation of wind energy-based electricity supply system. We propose a network optimization (mixed-integer linear programming) model to design the underlying energy supply system. In this model we include practical constraints such as land limitations of onshore wind farms and different costs of offshore wind farms to minimize the total annual cost. Based upon the model, we also analyze the sensitivity of the total annual cost on the change of key parameters such as available land for offshore wind farms, required area of a wind turbine and the unit price of wind turbines. We illustrate the applicability of the suggested model by applying to the problem of design of a wind turbines-based electricity supply problem in Jeju. As a result of this study, we identified the major cost-drivers and the regional cost distribution of the proposed system. We also comparatively analyzed the economic performance of on/off shore wind farms in wind energy-based electricity supply system of Jeju.