• Title/Summary/Keyword: Panel Vector Autoregression

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Analysis of R&D Time Lag in impacting Firm Value: GMM- PVAR Study (GMM Panel VAR를 이용하여 R&D가 기업 가치에 영향을 미치기까지의 시간 측정 연구)

  • Yang, Insun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2016
  • Most previous studies found a positive relationship between the value of a firm and its R&D investments. This research measures the impact of the timescale of the R&D investment of a firm on its value using panel vector autoregression. By measuring the time required for R&D to impact the value of a firm, this study demonstrates that the lead time is an essential factor in the analysis of the effect of R&D investment on a firm's value. Our study finds that the length of the lead time varies according to the firm's size, industry concentration, and book to market ratio. Firms with a higher industry concentration show a shorter lead time. Also, firms with a larger size and higher book to market ratio generally show a shorter lead time.

A Dynamic Analysis of Digital Piracy, Ratings, and Online Buzz for Korean TV Dramas (국내 TV 드라마 디지털 불법복제, TV 시청률, 온라인 입소문 간의 동태적 분석)

  • Kim, Dongyeon;Park, Kyuhong;Bang, Youngsok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2022
  • We investigate the dynamic relationships among digital piracy activities, TV ratings, and online buzz for Korean TV dramas using a panel vector autoregression model. Our main findings include 1) TV ratings are negatively affected by digital piracy activities but positively affected by google buzz, 2) digital piracy activities are negatively affected by TV ratings and social buzz, and 3) social buzz and google buzz are positively influenced by each other. While many empirical studies were conducted to reveal the effects of music or movie piracy, our understanding of drama piracy is limited. We provide empirical evidence of the dynamic relationships between drama piracy, TV ratings, and online buzz. Our findings show the presence of indirect piracy effects on TV ratings through online buzz. Further, we reveal that social buzz and google trends play different roles in promoting TV ratings and piracy activities. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory and practitioners.

The Analysis of Structural Relationships among Public Technology Transfer, Technological Performance, and R&D Productivity (공공기술 이전, 기술적 성과, 연구개발 생산성 간의 구조적 관계 분석)

  • Jeon, Jieun;Kwon, Sang Jib
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to identify the causal relationship among public technology transfer, technological performance, and research and development (R&D) productivity. Using the impulse-response function(IRF) of a panel vector autoregressive model (panel VAR), this study suggests the results of how long the factors such as technological performance (patent), public technology transfer, and R&D productivity takes and lasts if a one-unit shock of standard deviation occurs. As a result, first, the increase of public technology transfer activities has no power to increase the technology performance but improve the R&D productivity. If the public institute increases its technology transfer activities by one unit, the R&D productivity will increase within five years. Second, the impact of increasing technological performance on improvement of public technology transfer and R&D productivity is an insignificant. Third, the effect of R&D productivity on the public technology transfer creates a substantial reaction after a current time. Considering the structural relationships among public technology transfer, technological performance, and R&D productivity, if policy makers intend to construct the active R&D circumstance, technology suppliers should be motivated to run the active R&D mechanism because they achieve gains.

Cross-Border Asset Pledgeability for Enhanced Financial Stability

  • Choi, Gongpil
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.89-124
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    • 2020
  • Even with the sizable Foreign Exchange (FX) holdings and good credit ratings of its top assets, Asia remains vulnerable to various shocks. This paper highlights the limited cross-border asset pledgeability as a significant factor for the lingering vulnerability in Asia. The dichotomy in asset holdings between pledgeable FX and non-pledgeable domestic assets in major economies in Asia has been the source of increasing stabilization costs as well as weakened market momentum in the region. Specifically, the peculiar feature of asset holdings in Asia reflects seriously deficient cross-border asset pledgeability that is left unaddressed. Asset pledgeability contributes toward financial stability via three channels: 1) capital market development by recognizing the role of collateral, 2) increased shock absorption capacity via collateral management, 3) and the newly activated safe asset provision. Therefore, it is crucial to go beyond the usual market development strategy and expand the overall asset pledgeability in the region that has remained unduly depressed.

The Impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Intra-Industry Trade: An Empirical Analysis Using a Panel Vector Autoregressive Model

  • Guofeng Zhao;Cheol-Ju Mun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.103-118
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This study aims to examine the dynamic relationship between the variables impacted by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the level of intra-industry trade among member states, with the ultimate objective of deducing the short- and long-term effects of RCEP on trade. Design/methodology - This study focuses on tariffs, GDP growth rates, and the proportion of regional FDI to total FDI as research variables, and employs a panel vector autoregression model and GMM-style estimator to investigate the dynamic relationship between RCEP and intra-industry trade among member countries. Findings - The study finds that the level of intra-industry trade between member states is positively impacted by both tariffs and intra-regional FDI. The impulse response graph shows that tariffs and FDI within the region can promote intra-industry trade among member countries, with a quick response. However, the contribution rates of tariffs and intra-regional FDI are not particularly high at approximately 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively. In contrast, the contribution rate of GDP growth can reach around 8.5%. This implies that the influence of economic growth rate on intra-regional trade in industries is not only long-term but also more powerful than that of tariffs and intra-regional FDI. Originality/value - The originality of this study lies in providing a new approach to investigating the potential impact of RCEP while avoiding the limitations associated with the GTAP model. Additionally, this study addresses existing gaps within the research, further contributing to the research merit of the study.

Digital Item Purchase Model in SNS Channel Applying Dynamic SNA and PVAR

  • LEE, Hee-Tae;JUNG, Bo-Hee
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: Based on previous researches on social factors of digital item purchase in digital contents distribution platforms such as SNS, we aim to develop the integrated model that accounts for the dynamic and interactive relationship between social structure indicators and digital item purchase. Research design, data and methodology: A PVAR model was used to capture endogenous and dynamic relationships between digital item purchase and network indicators. Results: We find that there exist considerable endogenous and dynamic relationships between digital item purchase and network structure variables. Not only lagged in-degree and out-degree but also in-closeness and out-closeness centrality have significant and positive impacts on digital item purchase. Lagged clustering has a significant and negative effect on digital item purchase. Lagged purchase has a significant and positive impact just on the present in-closeness and out-closeness centrality; but there is no significant effect of lagged purchase on the other two degree variables and clustering coefficient. We also find that both closeness centralities have much higher carryover effect on digital item purchase and that the elasticity of both closeness centralities on the purchase of digital items is even higher than that of other network structure variables. Conclusions: In-closeness and out-closeness are the most influential factors among social structure variables of this study on digital item purchase.

A Study on the Economic Impact of Public Technology Startup (공공기술창업의 경제적 파급효과 분석 연구)

  • Jieun Jeon;Jungsub Yoon
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.87-115
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to examine the causal relationships between sales and employment for public technology-based startups. Although there is a limit to statistical generalization due to the poor understanding of the actual conditions of public technology start-up companies, these companies were analyzed by classifying them into high-growth companise, potential growth companies, and other companies. In order to understand the causal relationship, and to estimate the time required to be effective, panel vector autoregression was applied. As a result, the performance creation mechanism was identified as government supoort and private investment was mutually causal with employment, sales did not cause employment, and employment caused sales. In other words, it was found that employment plays an mediator role in public technology based startups' performance mechanism. In addition, private investment had the effect of improving employment and sales in the short time than governments support, and showed that firms with high employment can attract government support and private investment. This study are academically meaningful in that they empirically revealed the process of performance creation, whereas previous studies had only shown whether there was an effect on performance. It also has a policy contribution by suggesting the need for effective policy promotion by considering the 'employment' factor, such as human resource support, as more important.

A Study about the Correlation between Information on Stock Message Boards and Stock Market Activity (온라인 주식게시판 정보와 주식시장 활동에 관한 상관관계 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun Mo;Yoon, Ho Young;Soh, Ry;Park, Jae Hong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.559-575
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    • 2014
  • Individual investors are increasingly flocking to message boards to seek, clarify, and exchange information. Businesses like Seekingalpha.com and business magazines like Fortune are evaluating, synthesizing, and reporting the comments made on message boards or blogs. In March of 2012, Yahoo! Finance Message Boards recorded 45 million unique visitors per month followed by AOL Money and Finance (19.8 million), and Google Finance (1.6 million) [McIntyre, 2012]. Previous studies in the finance literature suggest that online communities often provide more accurate information than analyst forecasts [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006]. Some studies empirically show that the volume of posts in online communities have a positive relationship with market activities (e.g., trading volumes) [Antweiler and Frank, 2004; Bagnoli et al., 1999; Das and Chen, 2007; Tumarkin and Whitelaw, 2001]. The findings indicate that information in online communities does impact investors' investment decisions and trading behaviors. However, research explicating the correlation between information on online communities and stock market activities (e.g., trading volume) is still evolving. Thus, it is important to ask whether a volume of posts on online communities influences trading volumes and whether trading volumes also influence these communities. Online stock message boards offer two different types of information, which can be explained using an economic and a psychological perspective. From a purely economic perspective, one would expect that stock message boards would have a beneficial effect, since they provide timely information at a much lower cost [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006; Birchler and Butler, 2007]. This indicates that information in stock message boards may provide valuable information investors can use to predict stock market activities and thus may use to make better investment decisions. On the other hand, psychological studies have shown that stock message boards may not necessarily make investors more informed. The related literature argues that confirmation bias causes investors to seek other investors with the same opinions on these stock message boards [Chen and Gu, 2009; Park et al., 2013]. For example, investors may want to share their painful investment experiences with others on stock message boards and are relieved to find they are not alone. In this case, the information on these stock message boards mainly reflects past experience or past information and not valuable and predictable information for market activities. This study thus investigates the two roles of stock message boards-providing valuable information to make future investment decisions or sharing past experiences that reflect mainly investors' painful or boastful stories. If stock message boards do provide valuable information for stock investment decisions, then investors will use this information and thereby influence stock market activities (e.g., trading volume). On the contrary, if investors made investment decisions and visit stock message boards later, they will mainly share their past experiences with others. In this case, past activities in the stock market will influence the stock message boards. These arguments indicate that there is a correlation between information posted on stock message boards and stock market activities. The previous literature has examined the impact of stock sentiments or the number of posts on stock market activities (e.g., trading volume, volatility, stock prices). However, the studies related to stock sentiments found it difficult to obtain significant results. It is not easy to identify useful information among the millions of posts, many of which can be just noise. As a result, the overall sentiments of stock message boards often carry little information for future stock movements [Das and Chen, 2001; Antweiler and Frank, 2004]. This study notes that as a dependent variable, trading volume is more reliable for capturing the effect of stock message board activities. The finance literature argues that trading volume is an indicator of stock price movements [Das et al., 2005; Das and Chen, 2007]. In this regard, this study investigates the correlation between a number of posts (information on stock message boards) and trading volume (stock market activity). We collected about 100,000 messages of 40 companies at KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) from Paxnet, the most popular Korean online stock message board. The messages we collected were divided into in-trading and after-trading hours to examine the correlation between the numbers of posts and trading volumes in detail. Also we collected the volume of the stock of the 40 companies. The vector regression analysis and the granger causality test, 3SLS analysis were performed on our panel data sets. We found that the number of posts on online stock message boards is positively related to prior stock trade volume. Also, we found that the impact of the number of posts on stock trading volumes is not statistically significant. Also, we empirically showed the correlation between stock trading volumes and the number of posts on stock message boards. The results of this study contribute to the IS and finance literature in that we identified online stock message board's two roles. Also, this study suggests that stock trading managers should carefully monitor information on stock message boards to understand stock market activities in advance.