• Title/Summary/Keyword: Overestimation

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A Study on the adaptive Connection Admission Control Method in ATM Networks (ATM망에서 적응적 연결수락제어 방법에 관한 연구)

  • 한운영;차균현
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.1719-1729
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    • 1994
  • In this paper, an adaptive CAC(Connection Admission Control) method is proposed. The adaptive CAC uses traffic estimates derived from both traffic parameter specified by user and cell flow measurements. Traffic estimation using user-specified parameters is performed at every moment of connection request or connection release by recursive formula which makes real-time calculation possible. Traffic estimation using cell flow measurement is carried out when the number of connected calls does not change during a measurement reflection period-renewal period. The most import ant thing for the traffic estimation using cell flow measurement is the determination of the length of a renewal period to trace a real traffic flow with an allowable time lag and the measurement reflection ratio(MRR) both to reduce the portion of overestimation and to avoid underestimation of real traffic flow. To solve these problems, the adaptive CAC updates renewal period and MRR adaptively according to the number of connections and the elapsed time after last connection or release respectively. Performance analysis for the proposed method is evaluated in several aspects for the cases of both homogeneous and heterogeneous bursty traffic. Numerical examples show the adaptive CAC method has the better performance compared with conventional CAC method based on burst model from the both utilization and QOS point of view.

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Development of Pedestrian Delay Model at Signalized Intersections (신호교차로 보행자 지체모형 개발)

  • Chang, Hyun-ho;Yoon, Byoung-jo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.283-294
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    • 2018
  • An accurate pedestrian-delay model is essential for the pedestrian-oriented evaluation of signalized intersection (SI). The crossing behaviors of pedestrians at signalized pedestrian crosswalks (SPCs) are various, and their arrival behaviors consist of two types, random and platoon. It is natural, hence, that the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival should be considered in order to estimate accurate pedestrian delay. Despite this necessity, a simple pedestrian-delay model that cannot explain these behaviors of pedestrian movements is still recommended in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). For these reasons, a pedestrian-delay model, suitable for various SPCs and SIs, is required to make pedestrian-oriented decisions on the design and operation of various SPCs and SIs. This paper proposes a novel pedestrian-delay model that is based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival. The proposed model consists of two sub models: the one for SPC and the other for SI. The SPC delay model was developed based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing during pedestrian green time. The SI delay model was designed based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and platoon arrival. The results of a numerical simulation showed that the proposed delay model can successfully overcome the under- and overestimation problems of the HCM model with explaining various behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival.

An Analysis of a Reverse Mortgage using a Multiple Life Model (연생모형을 이용한 역모기지의 분석)

  • Baek, HyeYoun;Lee, SeonJu;Lee, Hangsuck
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.531-547
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    • 2013
  • Multiple life models are useful in multiple life insurance and multiple life annuities when the payment times of benets in these insurance products are contingent on the future life times of at least two people. A reverse mortgage is an annuity whose monthly payments terminate at the death time of the last survivor; however, actuaries have used female life table to calculate monthly payments of a reverse mortgage. This approach may overestimate monthly payments. This paper suggests a last-survivor life table rather than a female life table to avoid the overestimation of monthly payments. Next, this paper derives the distribution of the future life time of last survivor, and calculates the expected life times of male, female and last survivor. This paper calculates principal limits and monthly payments in cases of male life table, female life table and last-survivor life table, respectively. Some numerical examples are discussed.

Estimation of spatial evapotranspiration using Terra MODIS satellite image and SEBAL model in mixed forest and rice paddy area (SEBAL 모형과 Terra MODIS 영상을 이용한 혼효림, 논 지역에서의 공간증발산량 산정 연구)

  • Lee, Yong Gwan;Jung, Chung Gil;Ahn, So Ra;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.227-239
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    • 2016
  • This study is to estimate Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) daily spatial evapotranspiration (ET) comparing with eddy covariance flux tower ET in Seolmacheon mixed forest (SMK) and Cheongmicheon rice paddy (CFK). The SEBAL input data of Albedo, Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Terra MODIS products and the meteorological data of wind speed, and solar radiation were prepared for 2 years (2012-2013). For the annual average flux tower ET of 302.8 mm in SMK and 482.0 mm in CFK, the SEBAL ETs were 183.3 mm and 371.5 mm respectively. The determination coefficients ($R^2$) of SEBAL ET versus flux tower ET for total periods were 0.54 in SMK and 0.79 in CFK respectively. The main reason of SEBAL ET underestimation for both sites was from the determination of hot pixel and cold pixel of the day and affected to the overestimation of sensible heat flux.

Multi-variable and Multi-site Calibration and Validation of SWAT for the Gap River Catchment (갑천유역을 대상으로 SWAT 모형의 다 변수 및 다 지점 검.보정)

  • Kim, Jeong-Kon;Son, Kyong-Ho;Noh, Jun-Woo;Jang, Chang-Lae;Ko, Ick-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.10 s.171
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    • pp.867-880
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    • 2006
  • Hydrological models with many parameters and complex model structures require a powerful and detailed model calibration/validation scheme. In this study, we proposed a multi-variable and multi-site calibration and validation framework for the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model applied in the Gap-cheon catchment located downstream of the Geum river basin. The sensitivity analysis conducted before main calibration helped understand various hydrological processes and the characteristics of subcatchments by identifying sensitive parameters in the model. In addition, the model's parameters were estimated based on existing data prior to calibration in order to increase the validity of model. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients and correlation coefficient were used to estimate compare model output with the observed streamflow data: $R_{eff}\;and\;R^2$ ranged 0.41-0.84 and 0.5-0.86, respectively, at the Heuduck station. Model reproduced baseflow estimated using recursive digital filter except for 2-5% overestimation at the Sindae and Boksu stations. Model also reproduced the temporal variability and fluctuation magnitude of observed groundwater levels with $R^2$ of 0.71 except for certain periods. Therefore, it was concluded that the use of multi-variable and multi-site method provided high confidence for the structure and estimated parameter values of the model.

On Mapping Growing Degree-Days (GDD) from Monthly Digital Climatic Surfaces for South Korea (월별 전자기후도를 이용한 생장도일 분포도 제작에 관하여)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2008
  • The concept of growing degree-days (GDD) is widely accepted as a tool to relate plant growth, development, and maturity to temperature. Information on GDD can be used to predict the yield and quality of several crops, flowering date of fruit trees, and insect activity related to agriculture and forestry. When GDD is expressed on a spatial basis, it helps identify the limits of geographical areas suitable for production of various crops and to evaluate areas agriculturally suitable for new or nonnative plants. The national digital climate maps (NDCM, the fine resolution, gridded climate data for climatological normal years) are not provided on a daily basis but on a monthly basis, prohibiting GDD calculation. We applied a widely used GDD estimation method based on monthly data to a part of the NDCM (for Hapcheon County) to produce the spatial GDD data for each month with three different base temperatures (0, 5, and $10^{\circ}C$). Synthetically generated daily temperatures from the NCDM were used to calculate GDD over the same area and the deviations were calculated for each month. The monthly-data based GDD was close to the reference GDD using daily data only for the case of base temperature $0^{\circ}C$. There was a consistent overestimation in GDD with other base temperatures. Hence, we estimated spatial GDD with base temperature $0^{\circ}C$ over the entire nation for the current (1971-2000, observed) and three future (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, predicted) climatological normal years. Our estimation indicates that the annual GDD in Korea may increase by 38% in 2071-2100 compared with that in 1971-2000.

CO2 Emission and Productivity of Fossil-fueled Power Plants: A Luenberger Indicator Approach (CO2 배출량을 감안한 화력발전소의 생산성 변화 분석: Luenberger지수 접근법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Sang
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.733-752
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    • 2010
  • This study applies the Luenberger indicator approach to estimate productivity of the Korean fossil-fueled power plants. A panel data set of 25 power plants was used. The method incorporates $CO_2$ emission as an undesirable output and shows that ignoring $CO_2$ emission overestimates the productivity change. There are two sources of overestimation. First, the usual method estimates productivity change ignoring the increase in $CO_2$ emission that occurred during the study period. Second, the productivity change estimated by the usual method that does not incorporate $CO_2$ emission is very sensitively affected by the change in operation rate. The paper decomposes the productivity change into the efficiency change and the technical change. The results show that the two sources contribute to the productivity change almost equally. It is also shown that the size and the pattern of productivity change are dependent on the plants' fuel types. Non-LNG power plants which saved their energy consumption and thereby reduced their $CO_2$ emission have achieved relatively high rate of productivity improvement.

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Friedewald-Estimated Versus Directly Measured LDL-Cholesterol: KNHANES 2009-2010 (LDL-콜레스테롤의 Friedewald 계산값과 실측값 비교: 국민건강영양조사 2009-2010)

  • Jang, Sungok;Lee, Jongseok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.5492-5500
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    • 2015
  • Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a major modifiable risk factor for cardio- cerebrovascular disease. In clinical practice, however, it is primarily calculated using the Friedewald formula as a cost-effective method. The aim of this study was to compare Friedewald-estimated and directly measured LDL-C values and assess the concordance in guideline LDL-C risk classification between the two methods. The data were derived from the 2009 and 2010 Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHANES). Analysis was done for 4,319 subjects with lipid panels-total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), directly measured LDL-C using an enzymatic homogeneous assay, and triglycerides (TG). For subjects with TG lower than 400 mg/dL, Friedewald-estimated and directly measured LDL-C were highly correlated (r = 0.958, p < 0.001) and overall concordance was 82.7%. As TG increased, overall concordance decreased. Overall concordance was 85.4% at TG lower than 150 mg/dL; 78.2% at TG of 150-199 mg/dL; and 71.4% at TG of 200-399 mg/dL. The Friedewld equation tended to overestimate LDL-C when TG are of < 150 mg/dL; however, underestimate LDL-C when TG are of ${\geq}150mg/dL$. As a result, Friedewald estimation misclassified 382 subjects (9.1%) in a higher category versus 348 subjects (8.3%) in a lower category. Our findings suggest that overestimation of LDL-C by the Friedewald formula can be a great problem as well as underestimation.

Mismatch of Perception and Data: Air Pollution, Medical Expenses, and Consumption in South Korea (관측 자료와 인지의 불일치: 대기 오염에 따른 의료 비용 및 소비 지출에 관한 분석)

  • Yun, Seong Do;Kim, Seung Gyu
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.113-144
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    • 2020
  • Throughout various data sources, it is widely observed that air quality in South Korea has become improved. Koreans, however, insist that their health status and economic burden due to worsened air quality get degenerated. This study aims to explain the mismatch between perception and measured data, air pollution-led medical expenses, and consumption behaviors in the economics perspectives. First, we demonstrated data-driven evidence of mismatch in the perceived severity of air pollution and its enhancement in measured data. Second, using the health demand model, we theoretically derived and empirically showed a co-rising relation between air pollution severity and medical expenses. Last, we analyzed that the perception led to increased defensive expenditures in consumption. This result implies the possibility of overestimation in air pollution impacts on socioeconomic losses and its possible reverse interpretation from increased social benefit after improved air quality. Our results recommend policy consideration to strengthen air quality standards, to support socially vulnerable groups regarding defensive expenditures, and to improve the accessibility and credibility of air pollution information.

Private Procurement for Constructions and Operation of Buman Road in Daegu (도시 인프라 시설을 위한 민자 유치 -대구시 범안로 민자도로의 운영 실태와 대책-)

  • Choi, Byung-Doo
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.674-694
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    • 2007
  • Recently private procurement projects for urban infrastructure have been emphasized and introduced by government(both central and local) as an important method to supplement public budget shortage and to improve creativity and efficiency in its construction and operation, and hence to promote regional development. But these private procurement projects seem to be implemented under the neoliberal condition of urban policy for private capital to extend its sphere of investment and to ensure its opportunity of profit. Such private procurement projects for urban infrastructure have been legislated and widely applied since 1994 in S. Korea, but in recent years they have triggered out a variety of serious problems. In results of this study on the private procurement for construction and operation of Burnan Road in Daegu, it can be pointed out, it has led serious problems such as overestimation of traffic volume in plan, over-appropriation of construction cost and appurtenant business, irYational operation and account of the operating firm, problem in refinancing and change in contents of practical agreement, and over-compensation of minimum operation revenue. Some measures that can be considered as alternatives to resolve those problems and to operate more rationally the Buman Road include those of increasing traffic revenues, of reducing supports of public financing, and withdrawal of (part or whole of) operational right from the private firm.

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