• Title/Summary/Keyword: Overestimate

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Application of DIROM Model for Water Balance Analysis of Consecutively Linked Reservoir System (이설쌓기 둑높임 저수지의 연계 물수지 분석을 위한 DIROM 모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Lee, Jeongeun;Choi, Jieun;Hwang, Syewoon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.66 no.5
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    • pp.67-79
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    • 2024
  • Water balance analysis in heightened reservoirs, which have been raised to ensure a stable supply of irrigation water and secure water against floods and heavy rainfall, is essential for evaluating water supply capacity and reservoir maintenance. The consecutively linked reservoir system, which involves preserving the existing embankment while constructing a new one, affects the water balance between the existing and new reservoirs. This study aims to analyze the linked water balance between reservoirs in a consecutively linked reservoir system using the DIROM (Daily Irrigation Reservoir Operation Model) model. Surveys were conducted to investigate actual water use, and multiple water supply quantities were estimated based on these findings. Methods to supplement missing data and improve the limitations of simulated inflow were proposed and applied, and the performance of the daily storage simulation was evaluated. By supplementing the missing water use data, the NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) of the Sonhang reservoir storage rate simulation improved by approximately 30%. Additionally, result of using inflow coefficients significantly enhanced the simulation performance for the Sonhang2 and Sonhang reservoirs. This study confirms the necessity of incorporating appropriate inflow coefficients in reservoir design to overcome the model's tendency to overestimate inflow, highlighting the critical importance of quality control in observational data. The findings are expected to be useful for the design and analysis of future reservoir systems through embankment heightening.

Why do Workers Generate Biased Risk Perceptions? An Analysis of Anchoring Effects and Influential Factors in Workers' Assessment of Unsafe Behavior

  • Zunxiang Qiu;Quanlong Liu;Xinchun Li;Yueqian Zhang
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.300-309
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    • 2024
  • Background: Risk perception plays a crucial role in workers' unsafe behaviors. However, little research has explored why workers generate biased risk perceptions, namely underestimating or overestimating the risks of unsafe actions. Cognitive biases in risk perception arise from uncertainties about the dangers of unsafe behaviors. As a typical heuristic strategy, the anchoring effect is critical in decision-making under uncertain conditions. Consequently, this study empirically analyzed the influence of anchoring effects on workers' risk perception. Methods: In 2022, a survey was conducted with 1,418 coal mine workers from Shanxi Province, China. The survey instruments assessed workers' risk perception of unsafe behavior, anchoring effects, need for cognition, and safety knowledge. Multivariable linear regression models were employed to analyze the associations among these variables. Results: The findings verified the proposed anchoring effects. Specifically, experimenter-provided high-risk anchors led workers to overestimate unsafe behavior risks, thus reducing their tendency to engage in such behavior. In contrast, experimenter-provided low-risk anchors and accident-injury experiences (self-generated anchors) decreased workers' risk perception, increasing their propensity to engage in unsafe behavior. Additionally, workers' safety knowledge and need for cognition significantly affected anchoring effects. Conclusion: This research enhances workplace safety studies by applying the anchoring effect from psychology to risk perception research. Suggestions for improving risk perception encompass implementing hazard warnings, fostering safety education, and providing training. Furthermore, managers should give special attention to workers with accident-injury experience and promptly correct their accident fluke mentality, thereby improving overall risk awareness.

Comparison of Actigraphic Performance between $ActiWatch^{(R)}$ and $SleepWatch^{(R)}$:Focused on Sleep Parameters Utilizing Nocturnal Polysomnography as the Standard (활동기록기($ActiWatch^{(R)}$$SleepWatch^{(R)}$) 성능 비교 연구:야간수면다원기록을 표준으로 한 수면변인을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Hong-Beom;Lee, Ju-Young;Lee, Yu-Jin;Kim, Kwang-Jin;Lee, Eun-Young;Han, Jong-Hee;Im, Mee-Hyang;Jeong, Do-Un
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.27-31
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    • 2005
  • Objectives: We attempted to compare the performance of 2 commercially available actigraphies with focus on sleep parameters, using polysomnography as standard comparison tool. Methods: Fourteen normal volunteers (5 males and 9 females, mean age of $28{\pm}4.6\;years$) participated in this study. All the participants went through one night of polysomnography, simultaneously wearing 2 different kinds of actigraphies on each wrist. Polysomnographic and actigraphic data were stored, downloaded, and processed according to standard protocols and then statistically compared. Results: Both $ActiWatch^{(R)}$ and $SleepWatch^{(R)}$ tended to overestimate the total sleep time, compared to the polysomnography. $SleepWatch^{(R)}$ tended to underestimate the sleep latency. The two actigraphs and the polysomnograph did not show significant difference of sleep efficiency, when compared with one another. In addition, all of the sleep parameters from the instruments showed linear correlations except in $SleepWatch^{(R)}'s$ sleep latency. The sleep parameters from the two actigraphs did not show much noteworthy difference, and linear relationships were found between the sleep parameters from the two actigraphs. There was no significant distinction in the results of the two different actigraphs. Conclusion: The results of two actigraphies can be used interchangeably since the sleep parameters of the two different actigraphies do not show significant differences statistically. Overall, it is not legitimate to use actigraphy as a substitute for polysomnography. However, since sleep parameters except sleep latency show linear correlations, actigraphy might possibly be used to follow up patients after polysomnography.

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An Applicative Estimation of Safety Factors about Driven Pile Using the Results of Static Loading Test on the Ultimate State (극한상태의 정재하시험결과를 이용한 타입말뚝의 안전율 적용성 평가)

  • Ki, Wan-Seo;Park, Noh-Hwan;Kim, Sun-Hak
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.441-457
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    • 2009
  • This study estimated ultimate load by the determination methods based on ultimate load, yield load and settlement using experimental data from static load tests that applied load to driven piles used in sandy grounds at home and overseas until failure appeared markedly. Estimated ultimate load was normalized with actually measured failure load, and was compared among the determination methods according to the characteristics of pile. In addition, I have identified to the determination methods suitable for estimating ultimate load, and reevaluated the safety factor when determining allowable load. From the results of this study were drawn conclusions as follows. Among ultimate loads estimated by the ultimate-load-based determination methods, the value interpreted by Chin's method tended to overestimate actual measurements, and B. Hansen 80% standard and the stability plot method were considered most reliable as their results were closest to actual measurements. According to the results of this study, in calculating the allowable load, if the safety factor to be applied to failing load obtained by the method of determining extreme load is converted to the safety factor applied to the Standards for Structure Foundation Design, a value larger than 3.0 should be applied except the B. Hansen 90% method, and a value larger than 2.0 should be applied in the methods of determining yield load. In addition, if the safety factor to be applied to load obtained by the settlement standard is converted based on safety factor 3.0 for extreme load, a value smaller than 3.0 should be applied to the total settlement standard and the net settlement standard.

Applying Ensemble Model for Identifying Uncertainty in the Species Distribution Models (종분포모형의 불확실성 확인을 위한 앙상블모형 적용)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2014
  • Species distribution models have been widely applied in order to assess biodiversity, design reserve, manage habitat and predict climate change. However, SDMs has been used restrictively to the public and policy sectors owing to model uncertainty. Recent studies on ensemble and consensus models have been increased to reduce model uncertainty. This paper was carried out single model and multi model for Corylopsis coreana and compares two models. First, model evaluation was used AUC, kappa and TSS. TSS was the most effective method because it was easy to compare several models and convert binary maps. Second, both single and ensemble model show good performance and RF, Maxent and GBM was evaluated higher, GAM and SRE was evaluated lower relatively. Third, ensemble model tended to overestimate over single model. This problem can be solved by the suitable model selection and weighting through collaboration between field experts and modeler. Finally, we should identify causes and magnitude of model uncertainty and improve data quality and model methods in order to apply special decision-making support system and conservation planning, and when we make policy decisions using SDMs, we should recognize uncertainty and risk.

Pullout Characteristics of MC Anchor in Shale Layer (셰일지반에 설치된 MC앵커의 인발특성)

  • Lee, Bongjik;Kim, Josoon;Lee, Jongkyu
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the research on MC anchor has been developed as composite type has done. MC anchor exerts bearing pressure on pre-bored hole where the end fixing device is expanded. Therefore, the uplift capacity is to be increased and it has the characteristics that the anchor body is not eliminated from the ground even if the grouting is not carried out properly. Furthermore, it reduces the loss of tension and raises the construction availability by inserting the reinforced bar as well as the anchor cable, while it can improve the long-term stability because the nail is expected to play the role when the loss of the anchor cable is occurred in a long-term. However, because the resistance mechanism of the compound anchor such as MC anchor is different from friction anchor, the estimation method of the uplift capacity by the frictional force of the ground and the grout is not proper. Particularly, in domestic cases, the problem to overestimate or underestimate the uplift capacity is expected because the design method considering the soil characteristics about the compound anchor has not been developed. Therefore, in this study, in order to evaluate the characteristics of MC anchor and a kind of compound anchor, we measured the uplift, the tension and the creep by nine anchors tests in shale ground that the fluctuation of the strength is great. In addition, we analyzed the test result comparing to the result of the general friction anchor and evaluated the characteristics of MC anchor movement to gather the results. As a result of the test, we found the effect that the uplift capacity is increased in shale ground comparing to the general friction anchor.

Characteristics of Runout Distance of Debris Flows in Korea (한국 토석류의 이동거리 특성)

  • Choi, Dooyoung;Paik, Joongcheol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.3B
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    • pp.193-201
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    • 2012
  • In the last decade, heavy rainfall induced debris flow events have been remarkably occurred in Korea. Consequently, debris flow is becoming one of the most dangerous natural phenomena in mountainous area. Understanding and correct predicting of the runout distance of debris flow is an essential prerequisite for developing debris flow hazard map and prevention technology. Based on the simple and widely used sled model, in this study, we analyse the net efficiency of debris flows which is a dimensionless constant (=1/R) and defined by the ratio of the horizontal runout distance L from the debris flow source to deposit and the vertical elevation H of the source above the deposit. The analysis of field data observed in total 238 debris flow events occurred from 2002 to 2011 reveals that the representative value of the net efficiency of debris flows in Korea is 4.3. The data observed in Gangwon province where is the most debris flow-prone area in Korea shows that debris flows in Inje area have the runout distance longer than those in Pyongchang and Gangneung. Overall features of the net efficiency of debris flows observed in the central Korea are similar to those in the southern Korea. The estimation based on aerial photographs and available depositional conditions appears to overestimate the net efficiency compared to estimation based on the field observations, which indicates that appropriate depositional conditions need to be developed for debris flows in Korea.

Development of Local Stem Volume Table for Pinus densiflora S. et Z. Using Tree Stem Taper Model (수간곡선 모델을 이용한 소나무의 지방별 수간재적표 개발)

  • Kang, Jin-Taek;Son, Yeong-Mo;Kim, So-Won;Lee, Sun-Jeoung;Park, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.327-335
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    • 2014
  • Current volume tables might underestimate or overestimate the volumes of individual trees in a specific region because the tables were made using the data from broad regions within South Korea. Therefore, to solve this problem, this study was conducted to develop local stem volume tables reflecting the local growth pattern and properties using stem taper equations in the regions of Hongcheon and Yeongju. We developed the local stem volume table for Pinus densiflora, which is the widely planted species in South Korea. To derive the most suitable taper equation for estimating the stem volume of region, three models of Max & Burkhart, Kozak and Parresol et al. were applied and their fitness were statistically analyzed by using the Fitness Index, Bias, and Standard Error of Bias. The result showed that there is a significant difference among the three models, and the Fitness Index of the Kozak model was highest compared to the other models. Therefore, the Kozak model was chosen for generating stem taper equation and stem volume tables for P. densiflora. The result from the developed stem volume tables of each region was compared to the current stem volume tables with driven by the data of tree growth obtained throughout the nation. The result showed that there is a significant difference (0.000< ${\alpha}=0.05$) in two regions, Hongcheon and Yeongju, and also there is a significant difference (0.000< ${\alpha}=0.05$) between the two regions.

Analysis of all PCB Congeners in Air Samples by HRGC/HRMS (대기 시료 중 PCBs 전 이성체 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Soo;Song, Byung-Joo;Kim, Jong-Guk
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.309-319
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    • 2003
  • This study was performed to describe analysis method of 209 PCB congeners in ambient air samples. The samples were collected by high volume air sampler in Chonju city. Extracted samples were cleaned by silicagel cleanup modified with sulfuric acid and activated carbon cleanup processing. The cleaned samples were analyzed by high resolution gas chromatography and high resolution mass spectrometry (HRGC/HRMS) with DB-5 column (60 m, 0.25 mm i.d., 0.25 m film thickness) to analyze the 209 kinds of PCB congeners. PCBs levels of air samples were detected to the range between 0.003 and $0.163pg-TEQ/m^3$. The PCBs congener of 162 kinds were detected in samples analysed using DB-5 column and 37 kinds peaks were overlapped with congeners more than one. It is difficult to isolate PCB 118/106 and PCB 105/127 in coplanar PCB, so it is likely to overestimate the concentration.. The distribution of coplanar-PCB congeners in origin source samples (Kanechlor and exhaust gas from incinerator) was compared with that in air samples, and PCB 81, PCB 77, PCB 126, and PCB 169 were higher in incinerator samples.

Reliability of self-reported data for prevalence and health life expectancy studies: comparison with sample cohort DB of National Health Insurance Services (자가 응답식 자료에 근거한 유병률 및 건강기대수명 연구의 신뢰도 분석: 건강보험 표본코호트 DB와의 비교)

  • Kwon, Tae Yeon;Park, Yousung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1329-1346
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    • 2016
  • Korea Health Panel (KHP) data and Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) data are collected by self-assess and self-report for individual's health status and medical use. Previous studies have claimed that the reliability for prevalence rates and health life expectancies obtained from these data should be validated. National Health Insurance Services in Korea recently released a sample cohort DB that contain all data related to the use of medical facilities for all entire Korea citizens. It has been shown that disease-specific prevalence rates calculated from these data are representative and reliable for the entire population. In this paper, we evaluate the reliability of prevalence rates derived from self-reported data such as KHP and KNHANES by comparing to the prevalence rates from the sample cohort DB. We found that both KHP and KNHANES underestimate prevalence rates and in turn overestimate health life expectancies. Moreover, the general trends of health life expectancies might be distorted (except for the sample cohort DB) because of sampling and non-sampling errors.