• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.301-315
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the Kumjung Mountain, using a Individual Travel Cost Model(ITCM). This paper compares Poisson and negative binomial count data models to measure the tourism demands. Interviewers were instructed to interview only individuals. So the sample was taken in 700. A dependent variable that is defined on the non-negative integers and subject to sampling truncation is the result of a truncated count data process. The results suggest that the truncated negative binomial model is improved overdispersion problem and more preferred than the other models in the study. This study emphasizes in particular 'travel cost' that is not only monetary cost but also including opportunity cost of 'travel time'. According to the truncated negative binomial model, estimates the Consumer Surplus(CS) values per trip of about 60,669 Korean won and the total economic value was estimated to be 252,383 Korean won.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.54-63
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• 2014

Traffic accident frequency and severity level in Korea are known to be very serious. Especially the number of pedestrian fatalities was much worse and 1.6 time higher than the OECD average. According to the National Police Agency, the flash signals are reported to have many safety benefits as well as travel time reduction, which is opposed to the foreign studies. With this background of expanding the flash signal, this research aims to investigate the overall impact of the flash signal operation on safety, investigating and comparing the accident occurrence on the flash signal and the full signal intersections. For doing this accident prediction models for both flash and full signal intersections were estimated using independent variables (geometric features and traffic volume) and 3-year (2011-2013) accident data collected in Seoul. Considering the rare and random nature of accident occurrence and overdispersion (variance > mean) of the data, the negative binomial regression model was applied. As a result, installing wider crosswalk and increasing the number of pedestrian push buttons seemed to increase the safety of the flash signal intersections. In addition, the result showed that the average accident occurrence at the flash signal intersections was higher than at the full signal-operated intersections, 9% higher with everything else the same.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.123-135
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• 1999

The rapid increase of Passenger cars which is caused by the discomfort of Public transit and the Preference of automobiles is the major factor of increasing traffic congestions in Seoul With the point that leading the automobilists to the Public transit can be the most important Policy to ease these traffic congestions, this study focuses on the behavioral aspects of company employees and university students and investigates factors influencing bus ridership. To be brief, by estimating bus ridership through count models, this study investigates factors which influence bus ridership and elicits Political suggestions which lead automobilists to Public transit. The Purpose in this study is the application of appropriate count data model. The count data models have been widely applied to the economic area from the middle of the 1980s and to transportation aspect mainly in the foreign countries from the latter half of the 1980s. Even though a few studies in this country employed count data model to count data. all of them were Poisson regression models without suitable tests for the importance of the model specification. In the end, as the result of statistical test, negative binomial regression model which is suitable for overdispersed data was found to be appropriate for the data of weekly bus ridership. To emphasize the importance of model specification, both of poisson regression model and negative binomial regression model were estimated and the results were compared.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.387-397
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• 2015

In this paper, the determinants of the number of job changes in the SMEs (small and medium enterprises) youth-intern project is analysed, utilizing SMEs youth-intern DB and employment insurance DB. Since the number of job changes are count data which take integer values other than negative values, general linear regression analysis becomes inappropriate. Therefore, four models such as Poisson regression model, zero inflated Poisson regression model, negative binomial regression model and zero inflated negative binomial regression model are tried to fit count data. A zero inflated negative binomial regression model is selected to be the best model. Major results are the followings. First, the number of job changes is shown to be significantly smaller in the treatment group than in the control group. Second, the number of job changes turns out to be significantly smaller in the young-age group than in the old-age group. Third, it is also shown that the number of job changes of man is significantly greater than that of woman. Lastly, the number of job changes in the bigger firm is shown to be significantly less than that of the smaller firm.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.343-351
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• 2015

We introduce how to fit random effects models via a SRC-Stat statistical package. This package has been developed to fit double hierarchical generalized linear models where mean and dispersion parameters for the variance of random effects and residual variance (overdispersion) can be modeled as random-effect models. The estimates of fixed effects, random effects and variances are calculated by a hierarchical likelihood method. We illustrate the use of our package with practical data-sets.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.15-22
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• 2003

In general, the linear regression model has been used to estimate trip generation in the travel demand forecasting procedure. However, the model suffers from several methodological limitations. First, trips as a dependent variable with non-negative integer show discrete distribution but the model assumes that the dependent variable is continuously distributed between -$\infty$ and +$\infty$. Second, the model may produce negative estimates. Third, even if estimated trips are within the valid range, the model offers only forecasted trips without discrete probability distribution of them. To overcome these limitations, a poisson model with a assumption of equidispersion has frequently been used to analyze count data such as trip frequencies. However, if the variance of data is greater than the mean. the poisson model tends to underestimate errors, resulting in unreliable estimates. Using overdispersion test, this study proved that the poisson model is not appropriate and by using Vuong test, zero inflated negative binomial model is optimal. Model reliability was checked by likelihood test and the accuracy of model by Theil inequality coefficient as well. Finally, marginal effect of the change of socio-demographic characteristics of households on trips was analyzed.

• The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.187-195
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• 2014

In this paper, we report new OSL ages of the marine terrace sediments at Suryum fault site, using single grains of quartz, and briefly discuss their chronological implications on the timing of terrace formation along the southeastern coast of Korea. Of 1200 grains measured, 93 quartz grains were found to have OSL properties suitable for dating, the equivalent dose ($D_e$) values of which varied significantly, ranging from 50 Gy to 610 Gy with the overdispersion of $30{\pm}4%$. Applied to the Central Age Model (CAM) and Minimum Age Model (MAM), these quartz grains showed the OSL ages of $83{\pm}4ka$ and $60^{+3}{_{-7}}ka$, respectively, both of which are stratigraphically inconsistent with the previously reported OSL ages of lower $2^{nd}$ terrace (MIS 5a; ~80 ka). However, Finite Mixture Model (FMM) revealed that a small fraction of the measured quartz grains ($6{\pm}4%$) were of the ages ($194{\pm}24ka$) corresponding to MIS 7. Conclusively, based on single grain OSL ages, it would be prudent not to exclude the possibility that the marine terrace sediments at Suryum fault site have formed during MIS 7. Further, our single grain OSL ages imply that multiple grain(single aliquot) OSL dating methods are not applicable to the marine sediments at Suryum fault site.