• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.1-6
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• 2016

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between Managerial overconfidence and vehicle and parts manufacturing firm value of the listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The population includes 25 firms selected through systematic sampling. The data is collected from the audited financial statements of the firms provided by TSE's website from 2010 to 2015. In this study the variables, Overconfidence based on earning per share (OEPS), Overconfidence based on capital cost (OCC) has been used to investigate Managerial overconfidence. The results of multiple linear regression analysis show that there is a significant relationship between Overconfidence based on earning per share (OEPS) and firm value. In addition, there is a significant relationship between Overconfidence based on capital cost (OCC) The present research examined the relationship between Managerial overconfidence and vehicle and parts manufacturing firm value of the listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. The results of multivariate regression accepted two the hypotheses of the research. There is a significant relationship between Managerial overconfidence and vehicle and parts manufacturing firm value.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.303-308
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• 2020

Unlike previous studies of overconfidence bias that have been looking for causes of overconfidence bias in human cognitive error or in the desire to view oneself positively, this study presents the cognitive narrowing resulting from the social exclusion experience as the condition of overconfidence bias and investigates the mechanism of cognitive narrowing to overcome the negative emotions from social exclusion, and how overconfidence bias occur due to cognitive narrowing. Current study was performed with 94 undergraduate students. Participants were randomly assigned to social exclusion experience group or non-experience group. We analyzed how the degree of bias of overconfidence differs according to the social exclusion experience. The degree of overconfidence bias of the social exclusion experience group was higher than that of the non-experience group, and the difference was statistically significant. This study extends the concepts of escaping theory and cognitive narrowing to human cognitive bias and confirmed that social exclusion experience increased cognitive narrowing and overconfidence bias. Implications of this research and future research directions were discussed.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.71-85
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• 2021

Purpose - Prior studies have found that the characteristics of managers, corporate governance structure, corporate social responsibility and so on affect firm value. This study explores whether managerial overconfidence affects firm value through empirical analysis. Design/methodology/approach - Korean-listed non-financial companies from 2011 - 2017 are collected as the research sample. Firm value is measured by Tobin's Q, and managerial overconfidence is measured using a composite index encompassing various financial data. OLS and fixed effect model are used to investigate the relationship between managerial overconfidence and firm value. Findings - Managerial overconfidence is positively associated with firm value. Additional analysis reveals the following: (1) In the three subsamples of large, backbone, and small- and medium-sized enterprises, managerial overconfidence is beneficial to firm values. (2) Managerial overconfidence increases firm value on the t+1 year. Research implications or Originality - We use a comprehensive index with higher trust and feasibility to measure manager overconfidence and empirically confirm that managerial overconfidence can become a factor to improve firm value. Thus, it is necessary for shareholders to adopt an objective and neutral attitude and reasonably understand the psychological characteristics of managers when selecting CEOs. In addition, it is necessary to continue to optimize the measurement method of managerial overconfidence.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.87-93
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.101-113
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• 2020

The study aims to investigate the existence of overconfidence bias in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore. This paper focuses on the Vietnam Stock Market and other two countries of ASEAN, namely Singapore and Thailand. Data was collected over the period from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2018, daily returns for each of the securities. This paper uses the time series method, namely ADF test, Granger Causality and VAR approach to find evidences of the overconfidence effect in Vietnam in relation to some ASEAN markets. The results show similarities between the observed countries with slight variations, with focus on Vietnam market. In general concrete evidences of overconfidence were found in both Vietnamese and Singaporean markets, in which Singaporean investors show higher degree of overconfidence than Vietnamese investors. Overconfidence is not as clear in Thai market, however a direct causal link from increased returns to increased investor confidence was found. From the model deployed in the paper, there are reasons to conclude that Thai investors are under-confident. The findings of the study shed lights into the existence of overconfidence bias in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore on a comparative basis, provide more insights and implications for future research in this new and rising field of research.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.361-367
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• 2020

Researching the influence and role of CEO overconfidence to dividend policy is important for stock market investors. Therefore, this study was conducted to find out the relationship between CEO overconfidence and dividend policy in industrial enterprises in Vietnam. Data collected from 222 industry enterprises listed on the Vietnam Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2018. Data is collected on financial statements of listed companies. GLS model with panel data is used to analyze regression results. The results show that CEO overconfidence has dividend yield higher than CEO non-overconfidence. At the same time, the dividend payout ratio of enterprises has no difference between CEO overconfidence and CEO non-overconfidence. The results also showed that revenue growth has a positive impact on dividend yield in small enterprises, but negative impact on dividend payout in large enterprises. Research results by firm size have similar results with the general analysis for all enterprises. At the same time, the analysis of ownership type shows that CEO overconfidence has a positive impact on dividend yield of non-state enterprises without affecting other types of enterprises. From these results, the authors also made a number of recommendations to help investors choose businesses to invest in accordance with their strategies.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.187-204
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• 2023

Purpose - This study deals with the manager's overconfidence and stock price delay, and verified whether the stock price delay phenomenon changes as the overconfidence increases. Design/methodology/approach - Manager overconfidence means that managers have over confidence in their positions or abilities, and was measured according to Schrand and Zechman (2012). Stock price delay is a phenomenon in which information of company is not immediately reflected in the stock price, but is reflected over time, and was measured by the method suggested in a study by Hou and Moskowitz (2005). The analysis subjects used in this study are companies listed on the KOSPI market between 2011 and 2019, and the final sample is 5,509 company-years. Findings - As a result of the verification, it was shown that the stock price delay decreased as the manager's overconfidence increased, and this effect was amplified as the foreign shareholder's share ratio increased and the number of follow-up financial analysts increased. This means that as the manager's overconfidence increases, he actively provides high-quality information to the capital market. In addition, as a result of subdividing the manager's overconfidence into the investment and capital raising aspects, the capital raising aspect has a significant effect on reducing stock delays. This can be interpreted as the fact that managers with overconfident tendencies have a greater incentive to satisfy investors' information needs. Research implications or Originality - In previous studies, the characteristics of managers with strong overconfidence have both positive and negative aspects. The results of this study are significant in that they clearly demonstrated the positive aspect through the market variable of stock price delay, and it is expected to help capital market stakeholders understand the characteristics of managers with a strong propensity for overconfidence.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.99-106
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• 2020

CEOs Overconfidence can bring potentially risky early decisions to businesses, along with large enterprise free cash flow that can bring different investment decisions with CEOs Overconfidence. Especially in the context of Vietnamese enterprises, CEOs are often influenced by behavioral psychology about overconfidence in investment decisions (due to individual cultural characteristics as well as operating financial markets also depend on many factors outside the market). Therefore, the authors study the impact of overconfidence and cash flow on investment in Vietnamese to find the internal relationship between these three factors in the financial environment in Vietnam. With 480 companies listed on the Vietnam Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2018 (companies have continuous reports), the regression analysis results with panel data (FEM, GLS models, correction of robust and GMM dealing with endogenous problems) have shown Overconfidence has a positive impact on investment. At the same time, the results also indicated that enterprises with overconfident CEOs and large cash flows tend to invest less than enterprises with low cash flow. The results of this study have shown the behavioral behavior of CEOs in Vietnamese enterprises that exist under both prospect theory and effective market theory.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.10
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• pp.361-371
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• 2021

This research aims to analyze the effects of managerial overconfidence and corporate governance on investment decisions. Besides, it also tries to discover the effect of internal financing mediation between managerial overconfidence and corporate governance on investment decisions. This study employed panel data from 44 manufacturing companies from 2014 to 2019, out of a total of 117, thus the total observations are 264. The hypothesis was verified through structural equation modeling (Smart PLS 2). The study revealed as follows: 1) Managerial overconfidence has a positive and significant effect on internal financing, while corporate governance has a negative and significant effect on internal financing, 2) managerial overconfidence, internal financing, and corporate governance have a positive and significant effect on investment decisions, 3) internal financing partially mediated the effect of managerial overconfidence on investment decisions, However, internal financing does not mediate the effect of corporate governance on investment decisions. The findings in this study will help company managers implement good corporate governance to improve investment efficiency. In addition, managers can reduce the proportion of retained earnings and increase the proportion of dividend payout ratios, and increase the use of external sources of funds in making investments to minimize agency costs and manager's opportunistic behavior.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.83-98
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• 1990

Previous studies have shown strong tendancy toward overconfidence in intuitive probability judgements. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relations between this overconfidence phenomenon and the three major characteristics of information, namely, the pertinance, the redundancy and the quantity. An experiment was conducted where the subjects were asked to respond to 120 questions of the same type. In each question, the subjects' task was to predict, in the light of given information, which of the two given countries would have had higher GNP in 1979 and to give the probability that their choice would be correct. The results suggests that only the pertinance of information has significant influence on the degree of overconfidence.