• Title/Summary/Keyword: Output Prediction

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Development of Productivity Prediction Model according to Choke Size and Gas Injection Rate by using ANN(Artificial Neural Network) at Oil Producer (오일 생산정에서 쵸크사이즈와 가스주입량에 따른 생산성 예측 인공신경망 모델 개발)

  • Han, Dong-kwon;Kwon, Sun-il
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.90-103
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    • 2018
  • This paper presents the development of two ANN models which can predict an optimum production rate by controlling choke size in oil well, and gas injection rate in gas-lift well. The input data was solution gas-oil ratio, water cut, reservoir pressure, and choke size or gas injection rate. The output data was wellhead pressure and production rate. Firstly, a range of each parameters was decided by conducting sensitive analysis of input data for onshore oil well. In addition, 1,715 sets training data for choke size decision model and 1,225 sets for gas injection rate decision model were generated by nodal analysis. From the results of comparing between the nodal analysis and the ANN on the same reservoir system showed that the correlation factors were very high(>0.99). Mean absolute error of wellhead pressure and oil production rate was 0.55%, 1.05% with the choke size model, respectively. And the gas injection rate model showed the errors of 1.23%, 2.67%. It was found that the developed models had been highly accurate.

Analysis and verification of the characteristic of a compact free-flooded ring transducer made of single crystals (압전단결정을 이용한 소형 free-flooded ring 트랜스듀서의 성능 특성 예측 및 검증)

  • Im, Jongbeom;Yoon, Hongwoo;Kwon, Byungjin;Kim, Kyungseop;Lee, Jeongmin
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.278-286
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    • 2022
  • In this study, a 33-mode Free-Flooded Ring (FFR) transducer was designed to apply piezoelectric single crystal PIN-PMN-PT, which has high piezoelectric constants and electromechanical coupling coefficient. To ensure low-frequency high transmitting sensitivity characteristics with a small size of FFR transducer, the commercial FFR transducer based on piezoelectric ceramics was compared. To develop the FFR transducer with broadband characteristics, a piezoelectric segmented ring structure inserted with inactive elements was applied. The oil-filled structure was applied to minimize the change of acoustic characteristics of the ring transducer. It was verified that the transmitting voltage response, underwater impedance, and beam pattern matched the finite element numerical simulation results well through an acoustic test. The difference in the transmitting voltage response between the measured and the simulated results is about 1.3 dB in cavity mode and about 0.3 dB in radial mode. The fabricated FFR transducer had a higher transmitting voltage response compared to the commercial transducer, but the diameter was reduced by about 17 %. From this study, it was confirmed that the feasibility of a single crystal-applied FFR transducer with compact size and high-power characteristics. The effectiveness of the performance prediction by simulation was also confirmed.

Predicting the amount of water shortage during dry seasons using deep neural network with data from RCP scenarios (RCP 시나리오와 다층신경망 모형을 활용한 가뭄시 물부족량 예측)

  • Jang, Ock Jae;Moon, Young Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.121-133
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    • 2022
  • The drought resulting from insufficient rainfall compared to the amount in an ordinary year can significantly impact a broad area at the same time. Another feature of this disaster is hard to recognize its onset and disappearance. Therefore, a reliable and fast way of predicting both the suffering area and the amount of water shortage from the upcoming drought is a key issue to develop a countermeasure of the disaster. However, the available drought scenarios are about 50 events that have been observed in the past. Due to the limited number of events, it is difficult to predict the water shortage in a case where the pattern of a natural disaster is different from the one in the past. To overcome the limitation, in this study, we applied the four RCP climate change scenarios to the water balance model and the annual amount of water shortage from 360 drought events was estimated. In the following chapter, the deep neural network model was trained with the SPEI values from the RCP scenarios and the amount of water shortage as the input and output, respectively. The trained model in each sub-basin enables us to easily and reliably predict the water shortage with the SPEI values in the past and the predicted meteorological conditions in the upcoming season. It can be helpful for decision-makers to respond to future droughts before their onset.

Convolutional Neural Network-based Prediction of Bolt Clamping Force in Initial Bolt Loosening State Using Frequency Response Similarity (초기 볼트풀림 상태의 볼트 체결력 예측을 위한 주파수응답 유사성 기반의 합성곱 신경망)

  • Jea Hyun Lee;Jeong Sam Han
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2023
  • This paper presents a novel convolutional neural network (CNN)-based approach for predicting bolt clamping force in the early bolt loosening state of bolted structures. The approach entails tightening eight bolts with different clamping forces and generating frequency responses, which are then used to create a similarity map. This map quantifies the magnitude and shape similarity between the frequency responses and the initial model in a fully fastened state. Krylov subspace-based model order reduction is employed to efficiently handle the large amount of frequency response data. The CNN model incorporates a regression output layer to predict the clamping forces of the bolts. Its performance is evaluated by training the network by using various amounts of training data and convolutional layers. The input data for the model are derived from the magnitude and shape similarity map obtained from the frequency responses. The results demonstrate the diagnostic potential and effectiveness of the proposed approach in detecting early bolt loosening. Accurate bolt clamping force predictions in the early loosening state can thus be achieved by utilizing the frequency response data and CNN model. The findings afford valuable insights into the application of CNNs for assessing the integrity of bolted structures.

Study on the Prediction of Motion Response of Fishing Vessels using Recurrent Neural Networks (순환 신경망 모델을 이용한 소형어선의 운동응답 예측 연구)

  • Janghoon Seo;Dong-Woo Park;Dong Nam
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.505-511
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    • 2023
  • In the present study, a deep learning model was established to predict the motion response of small fishing vessels. Hydrodynamic performances were evaluated for two small fishing vessels for the dataset of deep learning model. The deep learning model of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) which is one of the recurrent neural network was utilized. The input data of LSTM model consisted of time series of six(6) degrees of freedom motions and wave height and the output label was selected as the time series data of six(6) degrees of freedom motions. The hyperparameter and input window length studies were performed to optimize LSTM model. The time series motion response according to different wave direction was predicted by establised LSTM. The predicted time series motion response showed good overall agreement with the analysis results. As the length of the time series increased, differences between the predicted values and analysis results were increased, which is due to the reduced influence of long-term data in the training process. The overall error of the predicted data indicated that more than 85% of the data showed an error within 10%. The established LSTM model is expected to be utilized in monitoring and alarm systems for small fishing vessels.

Development of Integrated Management System Based on GIS on Soft Ground (GIS 기법을 이용한 연약 지반 시공 관리 시스템의 개발)

  • Chun, Sung-Ho;Woo, Sang-Inn;Chung, Choong-Ki;Choi, In-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2007
  • In the practice of preloading method for soft ground improvement, field engineers need information of ground properties, construction works and field monitoring on ground behaviors of the site. So, integrating all these informations into one database can provide more efficient way for managing and utilizing the data for construction management. In this study, integrated system for construction management of ground improvement sites under preloading is developed. The developed system consists of database (DB) and application program. The database contains all collected data in a construction site and processed data in the system with their geographic information. All informations in the database are standardized from the result of data characterization. Application program performs various functions on managing and utilizing information in the database; pre- and post- data processing with graphic visualization of output, spatial data interpolation, and prediction of ground behavior using field measuring data. And by providing integrating informations and predictions over entire project area with comprehensible visual displays, the applicability and effectiveness of the developed system for construction management were confirmed.

Application of Self-Organizing Map for the Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics (강우-유출특성 분석을 위한 자기조직화방법의 적용)

  • Kim, Yong Gu;Jin, Young Hoon;Park, Sung Chun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1B
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2006
  • Various methods have been applied for the research to model the relationship between rainfall-runoff, which shows a strong nonlinearity. In particular, most researches to model the relationship between rainfall-runoff using artificial neural networks have used back propagation algorithm (BPA), Levenberg Marquardt (LV) and radial basis function (RBF). and They have been proved to be superior in representing the relationship between input and output showing strong nonlinearity and to be highly adaptable to rapid or significant changes in data. The theory of artificial neural networks is utilized not only for prediction but also for classifying the patterns of data and analyzing the characteristics of the patterns. Thus, the present study applied self?organizing map (SOM) based on Kohonen's network theory in order to classify the patterns of rainfall-runoff process and analyze the patterns. The results from the method proposed in the present study revealed that the method could classify the patterns of rainfall in consideration of irregular changes of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. In addition, according to the results from the analysis the patterns between rainfall-runoff, seven patterns of rainfall-runoff relationship with strong nonlinearity were identified by SOM.

Dust Prediction System based on Incremental Deep Learning (증강형 딥러닝 기반 미세먼지 예측 시스템)

  • Sung-Bong Jang
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2023
  • Deep learning requires building a deep neural network, collecting a large amount of training data, and then training the built neural network for a long time. If training does not proceed properly or overfitting occurs, training will fail. When using deep learning tools that have been developed so far, it takes a lot of time to collect training data and learn. However, due to the rapid advent of the mobile environment and the increase in sensor data, the demand for real-time deep learning technology that can dramatically reduce the time required for neural network learning is rapidly increasing. In this study, a real-time deep learning system was implemented using an Arduino system equipped with a fine dust sensor. In the implemented system, fine dust data is measured every 30 seconds, and when up to 120 are accumulated, learning is performed using the previously accumulated data and the newly accumulated data as a dataset. The neural network for learning was composed of one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output. To evaluate the performance of the implemented system, learning time and root mean square error (RMSE) were measured. As a result of the experiment, the average learning error was 0.04053796, and the average learning time of one epoch was about 3,447 seconds.

Predicting blast-induced ground vibrations at limestone quarry from artificial neural network optimized by randomized and grid search cross-validation, and comparative analyses with blast vibration predictor models

  • Salman Ihsan;Shahab Saqib;Hafiz Muhammad Awais Rashid;Fawad S. Niazi;Mohsin Usman Qureshi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.121-133
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    • 2023
  • The demand for cement and limestone crushed materials has increased many folds due to the tremendous increase in construction activities in Pakistan during the past few decades. The number of cement production industries has increased correspondingly, and so the rock-blasting operations at the limestone quarry sites. However, the safety procedures warranted at these sites for the blast-induced ground vibrations (BIGV) have not been adequately developed and/or implemented. Proper prediction and monitoring of BIGV are necessary to ensure the safety of structures in the vicinity of these quarry sites. In this paper, an attempt has been made to predict BIGV using artificial neural network (ANN) at three selected limestone quarries of Pakistan. The ANN has been developed in Python using Keras with sequential model and dense layers. The hyper parameters and neurons in each of the activation layers has been optimized using randomized and grid search method. The input parameters for the model include distance, a maximum charge per delay (MCPD), depth of hole, burden, spacing, and number of blast holes, whereas, peak particle velocity (PPV) is taken as the only output parameter. A total of 110 blast vibrations datasets were recorded from three different limestone quarries. The dataset has been divided into 85% for neural network training, and 15% for testing of the network. A five-layer ANN is trained with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, Adam optimization algorithm with a learning rate of 0.001, and batch size of 32 with the topology of 6-32-32-256-1. The blast datasets were utilized to compare the performance of ANN, multivariate regression analysis (MVRA), and empirical predictors. The performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE)for predicted and measured PPV. To determine the relative influence of each parameter on the PPV, sensitivity analyses were performed for all input parameters. The analyses reveal that ANN performs superior than MVRA and other empirical predictors, andthat83% PPV is affected by distance and MCPD while hole depth, number of blast holes, burden and spacing contribute for the remaining 17%. This research provides valuable insights into improving safety measures and ensuring the structural integrity of buildings near limestone quarry sites.

Neural Network-Based Prediction of Dynamic Properties (인공신경망을 활용한 동적 물성치 산정 연구)

  • Min, Dae-Hong;Kim, YoungSeok;Kim, Sewon;Choi, Hyun-Jun;Yoon, Hyung-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2023
  • Dynamic soil properties are essential factors for predicting the detailed behavior of the ground. However, there are limitations to gathering soil samples and performing additional experiments. In this study, we used an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict dynamic soil properties based on static soil properties. The selected static soil properties were soil cohesion, internal friction angle, porosity, specific gravity, and uniaxial compressive strength, whereas the compressional and shear wave velocities were determined for the dynamic soil properties. The Levenberg-Marquardt and Bayesian regularization methods were used to enhance the reliability of the ANN results, and the reliability associated with each optimization method was compared. The accuracy of the ANN model was represented by the coefficient of determination, which was greater than 0.9 in the training and testing phases, indicating that the proposed ANN model exhibits high reliability. Further, the reliability of the output values was verified with new input data, and the results showed high accuracy.