• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.95 no.6
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• pp.778-783
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• 2006

Price prediction is essential to decisions of investment and shipment in oak mushroom cultivation. But predicting the prices of oak mushroom is very difficult because there are so many uncertain factors affecting the demand and the supply in the market. The Box-Jenkins methodology is one of strong tools in price prediction especially for the short-term using historical observations of time series. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology is applied to find a model to forecast future oak mushroom prices. And out-of-sample test was conducted to check out the prediction accuracy. The result shows the high accuracy except for market disturbance period affected by unexpected weather change and reveals the usefulness of the model.

• Coupled systems mechanics
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.133-149
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• 2022

The accurate prediction of elastoplasticity under prescribed workloads is essential in the optimization of engineering structures. Mechanical experiments are carried out with the goal of obtaining reliable sets of material parameters for a chosen constitutive law via inverse identification. In this work, two sample geometries made of high strength steel plates were evaluated to determine the optimal configuration for the identification of Ludwik's nonlinear isotropic hardening law. Finite element model updating(FEMU) was used to calibrate the material parameters. FEMU computes the parameter changes based on the Hessian matrix, and the sensitivity fields that report changes of computed fields with respect to material parameter changes. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of the sample geometry on parameter identifiability. It was concluded that the sample with thinned gauge region with a large curvature radius provided more reliable material parameters.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Tobacco Science
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.95-101
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• 1999

This study was carried out to analyze chemical components in burley tobacco using near infrared spectroscopy(NIRS). Samples were collected in '96 and '97 crop year. Calibration equations were developed by modified partial least square. The standard error performance(SEP) of '96 crop year samples between NIRS and standard laboratory analysis were 0.25% for nicotine, 0.18% for total nitrogen, 0.59% for crude ash, 0.32% for ether extracts, and 0.14% for chlorine, respectively. The analytical results of '97 crop year samples were similar to those of '96 crop year samples. The analytical result of '97 crop year samples analyzed by '96 calibration equation was more inaccurate than that of '96 crop year samples. The SEP of '96 or '97 crop year samples applying calibration equation derived from '96 plus '97 crop year samples was similar to that of '96 or '97 crop year samples analyzed by '96 or '97 calibration equation, respectively. The SEP of '97 crop year samples analyzed by calibration equation derived from '96 plus '97 crop year samples was more accurate than that of '97 crop year samples analyzed by '96 calibration equation. To improve the analytical inaccuracy caused by the difference of crop year between calibration and prediction samples, we need to include the prediction sample spectra which were different from calibration sample spectra in recalibration sample spectra, and then develop recalibration equation. The NIRS can apply to analyze burley leaf tobacco, leaf process or tobacco manufacturing process which were required the rapid analytical result.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.21-37
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• 2022

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is difficult to forecast because of the high volatility and complexity. To improve the BDI forecasting ability, this study apply Bayesian variable selection method with a large number of predictors. Our estimation results based on the BDI and all predictors from January 2000 to September 2021 indicate that the out-of-sample prediction ability of the ADL model with the variable selection is superior to that of the AR model in terms of point and density forecasting. We also find that critical predictors for the BDI change over forecasts horizon. The lagged BDI are being selected as an key predictor at all forecasts horizon, but commodity price, the clarksea index, and interest rates have additional information to predict BDI at mid-term horizon. This implies that time variations of predictors should be considered to predict the BDI.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.109-124
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• 2020

Facing the 4^th Industrial Revolution era, researches on artificial intelligence have become active and attempts have been made to apply machine learning in various fields. In the field of finance, Robo Advisor service, which analyze the market, make investment decisions and allocate assets instead of people, are rapidly expanding. The stock price prediction using the machine learning that has been carried out to date is mainly based on the prediction of the market index such as KOSPI, and utilizes technical data that is fundamental index or price derivative index using financial statement. However, most researches have proceeded without any explicit verification of the prediction rate of the learning data. In this study, we conducted an experiment to determine the degree of market prediction ability of basic indicators, technical indicators, and system risk indicators (AR) used in stock price prediction. First, we set the core parameters for each financial indicator and define the objective function reflecting the return and volatility. Then, an experiment was performed to extract the sample from the distribution of each parameter by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and to find the optimum value to maximize the objective function. Since Robo Advisor is a commodity that trades financial instruments such as stocks and funds, it can not be utilized only by forecasting the market index. The sample for this experiment is data of 17 years of 1,500 stocks that have been listed in Korea for more than 5 years after listing. As a result of the experiment, it was possible to establish a meaningful trading strategy that exceeds the market return. This study can be utilized as a basis for the development of Robo Advisor products in that it includes a large proportion of listed stocks in Korea, rather than an experiment on a single index, and verifies market predictability of various financial indicators.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.109-115
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• 2024

To develop a shipping company insolvency prediction model, we sampled shipping companies that closed between 2005 and 2023. In addition, a closed company and a normal company with similar asset size were selected as a paired sample. For this study, data of a total of 82 companies, including 42 closed companies and 42 general companies, were obtained. These data were randomly divided into a training set (2/3 of data) and a testing set (1/3 of data). Training data were used to develop the model while test data were used to measure the accuracy of the model. In this study, a prediction model for Korean shipping insolvency was developed using financial ratio variables frequently used in previous studies. First, using the LASSO technique, main variables out of 24 independent variables were reduced to 9. Next, we set insolvent companies to 1 and normal companies to 0 and fitted logistic regression, LDA and QDA model. As a result, the accuracy of the prediction model was 82.14% for the QDA model, 78.57% for the logistic regression model, and 75.00% for the LDA model. In addition, variables 'Current ratio', 'Interest expenses to sales', 'Total assets turnover', and 'Operating income to sales' were analyzed as major variables affecting corporate insolvency.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.65-70
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• 2004

This study was carried out to verify and predict the soil informations such as the contents of organic matter(OM) and Mg and pH of the soil. The predictability of spacial variation in the paddy field was examined by analyzing the various soil information. The prediction models for the OM pH, and Mg, were developed using inverse distance weighted (IDW), triangulated irregular network(TIN) and Kriging model. The determination of coefficients of linear and spherical Kriging models were 0.756 and 0.578, respectively, and were very low in comparison with other soil information. For IDW and TIN model, the determination of coefficients were 1.000 and hence the performance of the models was found to be excellent. The developed models were validated using unknown soil sample obtained In 2000 and 2001. From the analysis of relationship between the measured pH and predicted 0.9353. For prediction of Mg, the determination of coefficient is more than 0.8. Since the determination of coefficients of developed models for OM were relatively low, it may be difficult to predict the content of OM using the developed models. For further study, the additional works to enhance the performance of the prediction models for soil information are required.

• Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.84-98
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• 1990

Fifteen(l5) series hull forms for full slow-speed ships were prepared by expanding the basic parent hull form developed through the extensive theoretical and experimental studies, and model tests were carried out for each of the series hull forms. A set of systematic data was prepared from the test results and utilized to derive regression equations for the prediction of resistance and powering characteristics by statistical analysis. Computer program has been prepared based on the results of analysis and a sample run is presented.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.4 no.6
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• pp.669-681
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• 2006

In this work, a new method of design adaptive controllers for SISO systems based on multiple models and switching is presented. The controller selects the model from a given set, according to a switching rule based on output prediction errors. The goal is to design, at each sample instant, a predictive control law that ensures the robust stability of the closed-loop system and achieves the best performance for the current operating point. At each sample the proposed control scheme identifies a set of linear models that best characterizes the dynamics of the current operating region. Then, it carries out an automatic reconfiguration of the controller to achieve the best possible performance whilst providing a guarantee of robust closed-loop stability. The results are illustrated by simulations a nonlinear continuous and stirred tank reactor.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.1254-1254
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• 2001

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was applied to determination of the lipid content of compost during compost fermentation of tofu(soybean-curd) refuse. The reflected rays in the wavelength range between 800 and 2500 nm were measured at 2 nm intervals. The absorption of lipid observed at 4 wavelengths, 1208, 1712, 2312 and 2352 nm on the second derivative spectra. To formulate a calibration equation, a multiple linear regression analysis was carried out between the near-infrared spectral data and on the lipid content in the calibration sample set (sample number, n=60) obtained using a Soxhlet extraction method. The calibration equation for prediction of lipid, the value of the multiple correlation coefficient (R) was 0.975 when using the wavelengths of 1208 and 1712nm. To validate the calibration equation obtained, the lipid content in the validation sample set (n=35) not used for formulating the calibration equation were calculated using the calibration equations, and compared with the values obtained using the Soxhlet extraction method. Good agreement were observed between the results of the Soxhlet extraction method and those values of the NIRS method. The simple correlation coefficient (r) and standard error of prediction (SEP) were 0.964 and 0.815 %, respectively. Then, the NIRS method was applied to a compost fermentation in which the time course the lipid content were measured and good results were obtained. The study indicates that NIRS is a useful method for process management of the compost fermentation of tofu refuse.