• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ordered probit model

Search Result 83, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

A Review on Dynamic Changes of Consumer's Attributes and Marketing Mix Strategies of Cut Roses in Korea (장미에 대한 선호속성의 동태적 변화와 마케팅 믹스전략 탐색)

  • Kim, Bae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.12 no.10
    • /
    • pp.4328-4336
    • /
    • 2011
  • The aim of this study is to find changes of the attributes that influence the purchase of cut roses during recent five years(2007~2011) and suggest some implications on ways to promote cut roses marketing. For this purpose, a survey was conducted through the Internet among 1,100 randomly chosen people living in Seoul, Inchon and Gyeonggi Province in 2011. A total of 1,023 valid replies were received for the analysis of the survey which was carried out by the subsidiary consulting firm. The survey panels and estimation models to analyze changes of consumers' preference attributes during recent five years are same to them of Kim, et al.(2007). That is, empirical analysis tools such as ordered probit model, multinomial logit model, and conjoint analysis were used according to Kim, et al.(2007). This paper suggests several policy implications to set up the target market of cut roses and marketing mix strategy to specify the best 4P(product, price, place and promotion).

Estimating Utility Function of In-Vehicle Traffic Safety Information Incorporating Driver's Short-Term Memory (운전자 단기기억 특성을 고려한 차내 교통안전정보의 효용함수 추정)

  • Kim, Won-Cheol;Fujiwara, Akimasa;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.127-135
    • /
    • 2009
  • Most traffic information that drivers receive while driving are stored in their short-term memory and disappear within a few seconds. Contemporary modeling approaches using a dummy variable can't fully explain this phenomenon. As such, this study proposes to use utility functions of real-time in-vehicle traffic safety information (IVTSI), analyzing its safety impacts based on empirical data from an on-site driving experiment at signalized intersection approach with a limited visibility. For this, a driving stability evaluation model is developed based on driver's driving speed choice, applying an ordered probit model. To estimate the specified utility functions, the model simultaneously accounts for various factors, such as traffic operation, geometry, road environment, and driver's characteristics. The results show three significant facts. First, a normal density function (exponential function) is appropriate to explain the utility of IVTSI proposed under study over time. Second, the IVTSI remains in driver's short-term memory for up to nearly 22 second after provision, decreasing over time. Three, IVTSI provision appears more important than the geometry factor but less than the traffic operation factor.

The Establishment of Security Strategies for Introducing Cloud Computing

  • Yoon, Young Bae;Oh, Junseok;Lee, Bong Gyou
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.860-877
    • /
    • 2013
  • Cloud computing has become one of the most important technologies for reducing cost and increasing productivity by efficiently using IT resources in various companies. The cloud computing system has mainly been built for private enterprise, but public institutions, such as governments and national institutes, also plans to introduce the system in Korea. Various researches have pointed to security problems as a critical factor to impede the vitalization of cloud computing services, but they only focus on the security threats and their correspondents for addressing the problems. There are no studies that analyze major security issues with regard to introducing the cloud computing system. Accordingly, it is necessary to research the security factors in the cloud computing given to public institutions when adopting cloud computing. This research focuses on the priority of security solutions for the stepwise adoption of cloud computing services in enterprise environments. The cloud computing security area is classified into managerial, physical and technical area in the research, and then derives the detailed factors in each security area. The research derives the influence of security priorities in each area on the importance of security issues according to the identification of workers in private enterprise and public institutions. Ordered probit models are used to analyze the influences and marginal effects of awareness for security importance in each area on the scale of security priority. The results show workers in public institutions regard the technical security as the highest importance, while physical and managerial security are considered as the critical security factors in private enterprise. In addition, the results show workers in public institutions and private enterprise have remarkable differences of awareness for cloud computing security. This research compared the difference in recognition for the security priority in three areas between workers in private enterprise, which use cloud computing services, and workers in public institutions that have never used the services. It contributes to the establishment of strategies, with respect to security, by providing guidelines to enterprise or institutions that want to introduce cloud computing systems.

A Methodology for Driving Risk Evaluation Based on Driving Speed Choice (Focusing on Impacts of Providing In-vehicle Traffic Warning Information) (주행속도선택 기반 주행위험도 평가방법론 개발 (차내 교통안전정보 제공 효과 평가를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Won-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.95-102
    • /
    • 2011
  • This paper presents a Driving Risk Model (DRM) based on driving speed choices using an Ordered Response Probit (ORP) model. The DRM is conceptualized based on the relation between speed deviation and the occurrence of crashes found by Solomon. The impacts of various driving risk factors are revealed by applying the DRM to evaluate the effectiveness of In-Vehicle Traffic Warning Information (IVTWI) in expressway driving. Regarding driving risk, the results show that: (1) the risk is lower among male drivers, those with more driving experience and those with less accident history, (2) the risk is higher when driving takes place on wet road surface, in the afternoon, and under conditions of low traffic volume, and (3) the risk is also higher on both downgraded and long curve sections. Additionally, the results provide evidence that provision of IVTWI can decrease the driving risk. The proposed DRM provides a solution for assessing the traffic safety impacts of countermeasures on roadways when there is a shortage of traffic accidents data.

Household Characteristics and Changes in Income Class: 1998~2001 (가구특성에 따른 소득계층 변화)

  • Kim, Geneuhc;Chung, Eui-Chul
    • Journal of Labour Economics
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.91-115
    • /
    • 2004
  • Based on household characteristics, this study analyzes the sources of changes in income class. Using KLI panel data in 1998 and 2001, household equivalent income is calculated and households whose income class is changed are identified. Various household characteristics are examined to understand which characteristics are influential in income class changes. Empirical estimations are carried out by employing an ordered probit model. Region of residence, age of household head, education level of the head, the number of employed family members in 1998, and a change in the number of employed family members are shown to be statistically significant. Calculation of marginal probability based on the ordered probit estimation results show that the probability of upward movement in income class decreases as a household lives in rural areas, while the probability of upward movement increases as the household's head is better educated, the number of employed family members are higher and there is a higher increase in the number of employed family members. Age of the head has mixed results; while the probability of upward movement in income class decreases as the head gets older for the households in middle and high income classes, that probability increases as the head is in the range of the 40s and the 50s in low income class households.

  • PDF

Comparison of Methodologies for Characterizing Pedestrian-Vehicle Collisions (보행자-차량 충돌사고 특성분석 방법론 비교 연구)

  • Choi, Saerona;Jeong, Eunbi;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.31 no.6
    • /
    • pp.53-66
    • /
    • 2013
  • The major purpose of this study is to evaluate methodologies to predict the injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Methodologies to be evaluated and compared in this study include Binary Logistic Regression(BLR), Ordered Probit Model(OPM), Support Vector Machine(SVM) and Decision Tree(DT) method. Valuable insights into applying methodologies to analyze the characteristics of pedestrian injury severity are derived. For the purpose of identifying causal factors affecting the injury severity, statistical approaches such as BLR and OPM are recommended. On the other hand, to achieve better prediction performance, heuristic approaches such as SVM and DT are recommended. It is expected that the outcome of this study would be useful in developing various countermeasures for enhancing pedestrian safety.

Analysis of Road Cross Section Component Affecting Traffic Accident Severity on National Highway (국도상 교통사고 심각도에 영향을 미치는 횡단구성 요소 분석)

  • Park, Jaehong;Yun, Dukgeun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.32 no.6
    • /
    • pp.143-149
    • /
    • 2017
  • According to traffic accidents statistics, the number of fatalities, injuries and the rate of increase of traffic accidents have been decreasing over last 5-years. The fatality rate is 1.9 for total accidents but the fatality rate for single vehicle accidents shows a 7.9, which is 4 times greater than the average for all accidents. Single vehicle accidents, usually occur as a vehicle impacts a fixed objects on the roadside as the vehicle runs-off from the road. However, few researches have been conducted considering the accident severity of single vehicle accidents which impact to the fixed objects on the road. The single vehicle accident is directly related to the composition of road cross section, (since it is the required the minimum width of a road for all run-off-the-road vehicles to recover or come to a safe stop). Therefore, this study analyzes the influence of road cross section on traffic accidents to find out the severity of single vehicle accident. To analyze the road elements which are related to the accident severity, the Ordered Probit Model was used. As variables, the element of road cross section such as the radius(m), vertical curve(%), cross sectional grade(%), road width(m). number of climbing lane, median, and curb, were used (as was the 3-years of accidents data). This study found out that cross slope(%), road width(m), and the number of climbing lane are related to the severity of accident. The result of this study could be expected to improve the road safety and to be used as the base data for further road safety research.

Development of Severity Model for Rural Unsignalized Intersection Crashes (지방부 비신호 교차로 교통사고 심각도 예측모형 개발 - 수도권 주변 및 전라북도 지역의 3지 비신호 교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Dong-Min;Kim, Eung-Cheol;Sung, Nak-Moon;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.10 no.3
    • /
    • pp.47-56
    • /
    • 2008
  • Generally, accident exposure at intersections is relatively higher than that at roadway segments due to more possibility of merging, diverging, turning, crossing, and weaving maneuver. Furthermore, the traffic accident rate at intersections has been rapidly increasing since 1990's. Since there is more opportunity of conflict at unsignalized intersection, frequency and severity of traffic accident are more severe than signalized intersections. The purpose of the study is to analyze factors causing vehicle crashes and provide intersection design guidelines to improve intersection safety. For this study, vehicle to vehicle crash data of 116 rural 3 legs unsignalized were collected and field surveys were conducted for traffic and geometric conditions. Ordered probit models were developed to analyze the severity of crashes. It was found that weather, obstacles in minor roadsides, presence of major exclusive right lane, presence of major road crosswalk, difference between posted speed of major road and minor road, land-use around intersections, shoulder width of major road, ADT of major road are significant factors for intersection safety.

  • PDF

Characteristics and Severity of Side Right-Angle Collisions at Signalized Intersections (신호교차로의 측면직각 층돌사고 특성과 심각도)

  • Park, Jeong-Soon;Park, Gil-Soo;Kim, Tae-Young;Park, Byung-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.10 no.4
    • /
    • pp.199-211
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study deals with the side right-angle collisions of 4-legged signalized intersections in Cheongju. The goals are to analyze the characteristics of accidents and to find out the accident factors that affect severity using ordered probit model. In pursuing the above, the study uses the data of 580 side right-angle collisions occurred at the 181 intersections(2004-2005). The analyses show that more accidents were occurred in the nighttime and in going straight. The main cause was analyzed to be the red-light violation. Also, the main results of modeling are the following, First, the likelihood ratio index is 0.094 and t-ratio values that explain goodness of fit are significant. Second, minor road traffic volumes, minor road lanes, major road left-turn lanes, major road left-turn signal, major road yellow signal time, cross angle, major and minor road speed limits are significant factors affecting crash severities at signalized intersections.

  • PDF

Public Attitudes to Saemangeum Development Project and Its Effects on Marine Environment (새만금 개발사업이 해양환경에 미치는 영향에 대한 인식)

  • Baek, Min-Ji;Choi, Hyo-Yeon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.21 no.5
    • /
    • pp.492-500
    • /
    • 2015
  • This paper attempts to analyze the public's attitudes about the Saemangeum development project and its impact on marine environment with the data from a national survey of 1,000 households obtained by a professional survey firm with face-to-face interviews using two split samples: a sample of 400 households in on-site area (Saemangeum area) and a sample of 600 households in off-site area (the nation except for Saemanguem area). More specifically, ordered probit model is employed to investigating the factors affecting the public attitudes to the Saemanguem development project. The results show that over 70 percentage of respondents in both the samples opposed Saemanguem development project when they considered its economic gain and impacts on marine environment at the same time. Futhermore, over 90 percentage of respondents judged that environmental management of Saemanguem open sea is necessary. Therefore, making appropriate actions are required to manage marine environment of Saemanguem open sea.