Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.23 no.3
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- pp.139-153
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- 2017
Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.
As interest and consumption of luxury goods have become more popular, luxury goods market is growing rapidly. Consumers can acquire psychological satisfaction with material abundance by purchasing and using luxury goods. Also, from the view of corporations, luxury goods have price inelastic characteristics, so they can enjoy price premium and it is good to produce good performance. That is the reason why they should pay much attention to securing luxuriousness. This study examined the establishment of brands luxuriousness in Korean SMEs. First, it examined the world market of luxury goods industry and the present condition of Korean market. Then it identified the constituents of luxuriousness by examining the prior studies and related literatures, and designed a research model based on the theoretical grounds to suggest the methods of brand luxuriousness building of Korean SMEs. Luxuriousness can be defined as the attribute of product that distinguishes luxury goods from other products by consumers' perceptions, and the factor that provides situational benefits that motivate consumers' purchasing behavior. In this study, I identified the sub-dimensions of luxuriousness according to whether there are product related attributes and consumers' benefit in consideration of the problems of existing studies. Product related luxuriousness are classified into superiority(functional benefit) and scarcity(experiential benefit), while non-product related luxuriousness are classified into differentiation(symbolic benefit) and traditionality(exclusive benefit). The following are the ways to build brand luxuriousness. First, company can use product factors. High quality, excellent design, high recognized brand with strong, favorable and unique images can enhance the luxuriousness of brand. Second, company can use price factors. Consumers tend to perceive luxury goods as high-priced items, so lowering the price of product can undermine the luxuriousness of product. Third, company can use distribution factors. It is effective for making consumers to perceive the differentiation and scarcity of luxuriousness through limited distribution channel. In addition, store atmosphere suitable for luxury brands should be created. Fourth, company can use promotion factors. The more consumers are exposed to advertisements, the more positive attitudes toward luxury brands are made, and consumers recognize luxuriousness higher. Price promotion negatively affects consumers' perception of luxuriousness. Fifth, company can use corporate factors. Consumer evaluations of products are influenced not only by the product attributes but also by the corporate association and corporate image surrounding the product. Considering the existing researches, it is possible to enhance the brand luxuriousness through high corporate competence and good corporate reputation. In order to increase the competence of the enterprise, it is useful to approach multidimensionally in relation with the knowledge creation capability. In corporate reputation, the external stakeholders' reputation is important, but the internal members' reputation is also important. Korean SMEs will be able to build brand luxuriousness by establishing marketing strategies as above and/or mix(integrate) them according to the situation.
Childcare teacher experience emotional labor that suppresses, exaggerates, controls and regulates their emotions in order to produce the positive image required in the nursery field. The working environment for infants and toddlers has a problem of lowering the quality of life as a cause of psychological exhaustion of the emotional labor childcare teacher. Because singing helps to improve the quality of human life, research is needed to enable emotional labor childcare teacher to recover from psychological exhaustion and plan a positive life in the process of self-care. First, how is the psychological exhaustion of the emotional labor childcare teacher through song psychotherapy? Second, how is the process of self-care of the emotional labor childcare teacher through song psychotherapy? The study was conducted from March 2017 to May 2020, and through qualitative case studies, data such as in-depth interviews, direct observations, and participation observations were collected at the ○○○ daycare center for 50 minutes every 12 sessions. Based on the above findings, the following conclusions were drawn: First, through singing psychotherapy, emotional labor and childcare staff were able to discover, understand, recognize, face, communicate, and insight into their will to live, psychologically exhausted themselves. Emotional support from others can reduce the experience of emotional depletion and demonstrate a recovery of experience and an improvement in achievement due to frustration at work. Second, the self-care of the emotional labor child care teacher through song psychotherapy proved the temporal, spatial, relational, and emotional caring process, while maintaining the balance between caring for others and caring for oneself, body, mind, and spirituality are organic change. In this study, the psychological exhaustion and self-care process provides an opportunity to discover the essence of life, explore and express one's inner self, take care of others and oneself in a balanced manner, and provide insights for a whole person and healthy self. It is significant in providing opportunities to improve the quality of life through growth.
The most difficult things, when we study the future-telling science of human destiny, are in case of what one's individual's fate is bad which is shown by Saju-Palza(四柱八字), In that case, we have faced the problems on how we live ; to follow or to deny our fate under the brief of improving our lives by trying to make hard efforts, regardless of the bad Saju-Palza(四柱八字). However, we can hardly find the clear answer to those questions. 『Liao Fan 4 lessons(了凡四訓)』 shows that one's destiny can be improved by accumulating good deeds despite of the bad Saju-Palza(四柱八字). Someone says that future can be created, not be foreseen. As well, Dr. Steven Coby says that the best definite way to forecast future is in creating the future. Anyhow, the strong desire and curiosity to know one's individual's future is having been lasted until now since the Genesis. we guess these desires may be one of our basic instinct. If then, the function and role of the future-telling science will be to increase the accuracy of future prediction, whether our fate has been fixed or been able to be changeable. Therefore, this study summarizes the definition of confusing terms, focusing on Gyeokguk(格局) and Sangshin(相神), the core of Myeongrihak(命理學), which is considered to be one of the most popular future-telling science. Concering Gyeok(格), in this paper, Nae-Gyeok(內格) has been mainly considered and Oi-Gyeok(外格) or Special-Gyeok(別格) have not been addressed. Specifically, it summarized the views of the classical Myeongri(命理) books and modern scholars on Gyeokguk(格局) and Yongshin(用神). In particular, it also summarized the comparison of various concepts of Gyeokguk(格局), the advantages and disadvantages of each Nae-Gyeok(內格)'s characteristic, the determination order of Nae-Gyeok(內格) and the good case and bad case of it's Gyeok(格). In addition, it was necessary to summarize the concept of Sangshin(相神), which was talked about in 『Japyeongjinjeon』 and to briefly summarize Heeshin(喜神) with a broader concept than Sangshin(相神). The different usage of Sangshin(相神) was also analyzed, between the priority interpretation of Cheongan(天干) in Day-Column(日柱) and the interpretation based on Jijee(地支) in Month-Column(月柱). Finally, this paper was completed, leaving it later as a research task, the confusion that comes from the scholars' acceptance of the comprehensive diversity on the same term.
Petrochemical is an energy consuming industry that consumes about 30% of total industrial energy consumption and is a representative carbon dioxide (CO2) emission source. Among them, the Naphtha Cracking Center (NCC), which produces ethylene, propylene, propane and mixed C4, consumes large amounts of energy and emits significant amounts of CO2. For this reason, an integrated techno economic- environmental impact assessment aimed at reducing energy consumption and environmental impact factors is necessary to ensure efficiency in terms of economics and environment. This study aims to analyze the efficiency of the heat exchanger network used in the existing NCC base on the pinch analysis and select an improvement plan that can reduced energy consumption. In order to reduces the utility consumption in the process, an optimal heat exchanger network considering the high-temperature and low-temperature stream was derived, and the economic evaluation was conducted by considering the trade-off between the reduction in utility consumption and the increase in heat exchanger installation cost. In addition, an environmental impact assessment was conducted on the reduced CO2 emission in consideration of the environmental aspect, and the economic environmental impact assessment used the payback period to recover the invested funds to come up with an energy saving plan that can be applied based on the actual process. As a result of considering the economic-environmental impact assessment, when the environmental impact assessment was not considered, it was 4.29 months, 3.21 months, and 3.39 months for each case, and when considering the environmental impact assessment, it was 4.24 months, 3.17 months, and 3.35 months for each case. These results appeared equally both when the environmental impact assessment was not include and when it was include. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for each case to determine how important factors affect the payback period. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the cost of the heat exchanger was identified as a major factor influencing the overall cost.
While the role of emotional antecedents of effective selling behavior would be important, the issue has not been fully addressed in the sales literature. To fill this gap, we conceptualize and empirically examine the relationships among salesperson's emotional regulation processes such as emotional intelligence (EI) and emotional labor (EL), effective selling behavior, and sales performance on the basis of educational, occupational, social psychology literature and marketing literature (e.g., Henning-Thurau, Groth, Paul, and Gremler 2006; Kidwell et al. 2011; Liu et al. 2008; Mayer, Salovey, and Caruso 2008). First, salesperson's EI is defined as his or her capability that enables correct perceptions about emotional situations in sales interactions. The EI is expected to work as psychological resources for different types of EL (i.e., deep acting and surface acting) to be performed by salesperson as emotional expression strategies (e.g., Lie et al. 2008). It is, then, expected that the features of EL selected by the salesperson would lead to different levels of adaptive selling behavior (ASB) and thereby sales performance (Monaghan 2006). Further, given that salesperson's customer orientation (CO) is found to be an important correlate of ASB (Franke and Park 2006), it is expected that CO would moderate the relationship between EL and ASB (Rozell, Pettijohn, and Parker 2004). Hence, this research attempts to shed additional light on emotionally-driven (EL) as well as cognitively-driven (CO) antecedents of ASB (Frank and Park 2006). The findings of the survey research, done with 336 salespersons in insurance and financial companies, are summarized as follows. First, salespersons with a high level of EI are found to use both deep acting (regulating the emotions themselves) and surface acting (controlling only emotional expressions) in a versatile way, when implementing EL. Second, the more the salesperson performs deep acting, the more he or she shows ASB. It is, then, important for salespersons to use deep acting more frequently in the EL process in order to enhance the quality of interacting with customers through ASB. On the other hand, the salesperson's surface acting did not have a significant relationship with ASB. Moreover, CO was found to moderate the relationship between the salesperson's deep acting and ASB. That is, the context of high CO culture and individual salesperson's deep acting would synergistically make the selling efforts adaptive to customer preferences. Conceptualizing and empirically verifying the antecedent roles of important emotional constructs such as EI and EL in salesperson's effective selling behavior (ASB) and sales performance is a major theoretical contribution in the sales literature. Managerially, this research provides a deeper understanding on the nature of tasks performed by salespersons in service industries and a few guidelines for managing the sales force. First, sales organizations had better consciously assess EI capacity in the selection and nurturing processes of salespersons, given that EI can efficiently drive EL and the resulting effective selling behavior and performance. Further, the concept of EL could provide a framework to understand the salespersons' emotional experiences in depth. Especially, sales organizations may well think over how to develop deep acting capabilities of their sales representatives. In this direction, the training on deep acting strategies would be an essential task for improving effective selling behavior and performance of salespersons. This kind of training had better incorporate the perspectives of customers such that many customers can actually discern whether salespersons are doing either surface acting or deep acting. Finally, based on the synergistic effects of deep acting and CO culture, how to build and sustain CO is always an ever-important task in sales organizations. While the prior sales literature has emphasized the process and structure of highly customer-oriented sales organization, our research not only corroborates the important aspects of customer-oriented sales organization, but also adds the important dimension of competent sales representatives who can resonate with customers by deep acting for sales excellence.
Introduction As consumers' purchase behavior change into a rational and practical direction, the discount store industry came to have keen competition along with rapid external growth. Therefore as a solution, distribution businesses are concentrating on developing PB(Private Brand) which can realize differentiation and profitability at the same time. And as improvement in customer loyalty beyond customer satisfaction is effective in surviving in an environment with keen competition, PB is being used as a strategic tool to improve customer loyalty. To improve loyalty among PB users, it is necessary to develop PB by examining properties of a customer group, first of all, quality level perceived by consumers should be met to obtain customer satisfaction and customer trust and consequently induce customer loyalty. To provide results of systematic analysis on relations between antecedents influenced perceived quality and variables affecting customer loyalty, this study proposed a research model based on causal relations verified in prior researches and set 16 hypotheses about relations among 9 theoretical variables. Data was collected from 400 adult customers residing in Seoul and the Metropolitan area and using large scale discount stores, among them, 375 copies were analyzed using SPSS 15.0 and Amos 7.0. The findings of the present study followed as; We ascertained that the higher company reputation, brand reputation, product experience and brand familiarity, the higher perceived quality. The study also examined the higher perceived quality, the higher customer satisfaction, customer trust and customer loyalty. The findings showed that the higher customer satisfaction and customer trust, the higher customer loyalty. As for moderating effects between PB and NB in terms of influences of perceived quality factors on perceived quality, we can ascertain that PB was higher than NB in the influences of company reputation on perceived quality while NB was higher than PB in the influences of brand reputation and brand familiarity on perceived quality. These results of empirical analysis will be useful for those concerned to do marketing activities based on a clearer understanding of antecedents and consecutive factors influenced perceived quality. At last, discussions about academical and managerial implications in these results, we suggested the limitations of this study and the future research directions. Research Model and Hypotheses Test After analyzing if antecedent variables having influence on perceived quality shows any difference between PB and NB in terms of their influences on them, the relation between variables that have influence on customer loyalty was determined as Figure 1. We established 16 hypotheses to test and hypotheses are as follows; H1-1: Perceived price has a positive effect on perceived quality. H1-2: It is expected that PB and NB would have different influence in terms of perceived price on perceived quality. H2-1: Company reputation has a positive effect on perceived quality. H2-2: It is expected that PB and NB would have different influence in terms of company reputation on perceived quality. H3-1: Brand reputation has a positive effect on perceived quality. H3-2: It is expected that PB and NB would have different influence in terms of brand reputation on perceived quality. H4-1: Product experience has a positive effect on perceived quality. H4-2: It is expected that PB and NB would have different influence in terms of product experience on perceived quality. H5-1: Brand familiarity has a positive effect on perceived quality. H5-2: It is expected that PB and NB would have different influence in terms of brand familiarity on perceived quality. H6: Perceived quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction. H7: Perceived quality has a positive effect on customer trust. H8: Perceived quality has a positive effect on customer loyalty. H9: Customer satisfaction has a positive effect on customer trust. H10: Customer satisfaction has a positive effect on customer loyalty. H11: Customer trust has a positive effect on customer loyalty. Results from analyzing main effects of research model is shown as