• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.31-41
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• 2022

As the environmental impacts of fossil fuel energy sources increase, the South Korean government has tried to change non-environmental-friendly enery sources to environmental-friendly energy sources in order to mitigate environmental effects, which lead to global warming and air pollution. With both a limited budget and limited time, it is essential to accurately evaluate the economic and environmental effects of renewable energy projects for the efficient and effective operation of renewable energy plants. Although the traditional economic evaluation methods are not ideal for evaluating the economic impacts of renewable energy projects, they can still be used for this purpose. Renewable energy projects involve many risks due to various uncertainties. For this reason, this study utilizes a real option method, the Geske compound model, to evaluate the renewable energy projects on Jeju Island in terms of economic and environmental values. This study has developed an economic evaluation model based on the Geske compound model to investigate the influences of flexibility and uncertainty factors on the evaluation process. This study further conducts a sensitivity analysis to examine how two uncertainty factors (namely, investment cost and wind energy production) influence the economic and environmental value of renewable energy projects.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.71-97
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• 2009

In this study, I compare the ability of alternative accounting method for employee stock option to reflect firm value using the Ohlson's(1995) valuation model for 200 firms. The each methods, I compare are employee stock option expense recognition based on the K-GAAP disclosures, and asset recognition at the grant date based on the SFAS No. 123 Exposure Draft: Accounting for stock-based compensation. The model include: (1) a model that uses reported earnings, equity book value, and compensation expense based on the K-GAAP disclosures; (2) a model that uses pro-forma earnings, equity book value and adds a measure of the unrecognized asset arising form granting of employee stock options. Finding form estimating equations that the K-GAAP method for calculating compensation has no explanatory power, and the SFAS No.123 Draft Exposure method for arising asset and fair value compensation better captures than market's perception of the economic impact of stock options on firm values. However, the correlation of employee stock option compensation expense is positive. These results suggest that incentive benefits derived from employee stock option plans outweigh the cost associated with plan. In addition, I couldn't find evidence that company in KOSDAQ that have high growth potential benefit more from employee stock option plan compared to lager, more mature firm in SEC.

• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2020

We investigate the domain of influence of the local volatility function on the solutions of the general Black-Scholes model. First, we generate the sample paths of underlying asset using the Monte Carlo simulation. Next, we define the inner and outer domains to find the effective volatility region. To confirm the effect of the inner domain, we use the root mean square error for the European call option prices, and then change the values of volatility in the proposed domain. The computational experiments confirm that there is an effective region which dominates the option pricing.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.639-666
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• 2018

This paper analyses the investment options of groundwater development project under water price uncertainty. The optimal investment threshold price which trigger the investment are calibrated base on monopolistic real options model. Stochastic dynamic model is set to reflect the uncertainty of water price which follows the GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) process. Our finding from non-cooperative investment decision model is that uncertainty of water price could deter the groundwater investment by considering the existence of option values. For policy markers, it is easy to manage 'charges for utilization of groundwater' rather than 'performance guarantee ratio' when managing groundwater investment with pricing policy. And it is necessary to make comprehensive and well-designed policies considering the characteristics of regional groundwater reservoir and groundwater developers.

• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.58 no.2
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• pp.349-364
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• 2021

This paper studies the optimal surrender policies for a variable annuity (VA) contract with a surrender option and a fixed insurance fee for guaranteed minimum maturity benefits (GMMB). In our proposed model, a policyholder pays the fixed insurance fee. Based on the integral transform techniques, we derive the analytic integral equations for the optimal surrender boundary and the value function of the VA contract that can be solved numerically by recursive integration method. We provide numerical values for the value function, the optimal surrender boundary, and the expected optimal surrender time.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.598-603
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• 2005

Biogas produced from anaerobic digestion processes has about 60% of methane and about 40% of carbon dioxide. Raw biogas can be used in internal combustion engines either spark ignition or diesel engines. Since the gas has relatively low calorific values, engine power also is lower than rated power values. Modified engines or biogas-specific engines have been utilized in order to increase efficiency. Another option is gas cleansing for increasing its calorific values. A couple of European countries adopted this approach in using biogas for one of transportation fuels, such as $CO_2$ scrubbing with water or special solutions. This study reports the results of water scrubbing for reducing $CO_2$ concentration. In 2.5m-high PVC pipe accepting water, $CO_2$ reduction rates were investigated. When flow rate of $CO_2$ and air mixture was about 5 LPM, $CO_2$ concentration was decreased up to 70%. Higher calorific biogas through water scrubbing is expected to be applied to various commercial engines without costly modification.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.16B no.4
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• pp.327-331
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• 2009

In fuzzy logic, aggregating uncertainties is generally achieved by means of operators such as t-norms and t-conorms. However, existing aggregation operators have some disadvantages as follows : First, they are situation-independent. Thus, they may not be properly applied to dynamic aggregation process. Second, they do not give an intuitional sense to decision making process. To solve these problems, we propose a new $\varepsilon$-AMDA (Aggregation based on the fuzzy Multidimensional Decision Analysis) algorithm to reflect degrees of strength for option i (i = 1, 2, ..., n) in the decision making process. The $\varepsilon$-AMDA algorithm makes adaptive aggregation results between min (the most weakness for an option) and max (the most strength for an option) according to the values of the parameter representing degrees of strength for an option. In this respect, it may be applied to dynamic aggregation process. In addition, it provides a mechanism of the fuzzy multidimensional decision analysis for decision making, and gives an intuitional sense to decision making process. Thus, the proposed method aids the decision maker to get a suitable decision according to the degrees of strength for options (or alternatives).

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.469-476
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• 2009

Recent collapse of shipping market right after unprecedent surge clearly demonstrates that shipping industry is extremely risky. Due to the volatile movements of the freight rates, investors tend to ask higher rate of return; higher required return reduces the total net present value of the investment project. For several decades, the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF hereafter) analysis has been the most frequently used valuation technique. However, the main problem of the DCF analysis is its assumption that the discount rate would stay the same during the project life. In other words, it usually does not address the decisions that managers have after a project has been accepted. The purpose of this study is investigate a new valuation method of investment: the Real Option Analysis(ROA hereafter) on ship investment. By replacing the existing valuation methods with the new one, the research will present a new perspective on investment with uncertainty. While uncertainty increases risk of investment and consequently discounts the value of it in the traditional feasibility analysis, in the ROA, a new valuation method which will be addressed in the research, uncertainty means some additional value of flexibility so that the tool can help investors produce more accurate decisions. Contrary to the DCF analysis, the ROA takes managerial flexibilities into account. In reality, capital budgeting and project management is typically dynamic, rather than static in nature. The ROA finds and assesses the values of managerial flexibilities or real options in the investments. The main structures of the research will be as follows: (1) overview of the ship investment project, (2) evaluation of the project by the Net Present Value analysis, (3) evaluation of the same project by the Real Option Analysis, (4) comparision of the two techniques.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.110 no.3
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• pp.453-461
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• 2021

The energy use of forest biomass is crucial to deal with climate change and achieve the carbon-neutral goal. This study aims to analyze the economic feasibility of forest biomass thermal energy facilities and calculate the optimal subsidy level of heat supply to ensure continued operation of the facilities. To achieve this aim, the net present value approach (NPV) and call option price model are adopted considering wood chip price volatilities. The Forest Energy Self-Sufficient Village Project financed by Korea Forest Service is considered as the research case study. In our analysis, when 50% of the initial investment is given to the subsidies and RECs are applied to only power generation, NPV and IRR are both negative and the investment value using the real option model is also zero. We concluded that some heat subsidies should be acknowledged to keep the facilities operating. Besides, the simulation results reveal reliable economic values when the heating subsidy is priced at KRW 0.0248 per kcal.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2004.06a
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• pp.420-427
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• 2004

Increasing number of transactions and investments in technology has sparked a growing interest in technology valuation. However, it has not been easy to come up with an objective valuation of technology due to variance in technology value, purpose of valuation, and technology patterns. The central paradigm for making decisions about large technology investments is net present value. Unfortunately, it is badly flawed and systematically under values every investment opportunity. The main objective of this paper lies in the development of a new approach for technology valuation using the Real Option Valuation.