• Title/Summary/Keyword: Optimal Price

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Stock Selection Model in the Formation of an Optimal and Adaptable Portfolio in the Indonesian Capital Market

  • SETIADI, Hendri;ACHSANI, Noer Azam;MANURUNG, Adler Haymans;IRAWAN, Tony
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.351-360
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to determine the factors that can influence investors in selecting stocks in the Indonesian capital market to establish an optimal portfolio, and find phenomena that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic so that buying interest / the number of investors increased in the Indonesian capital market. This study collection technique uses primary data obtained from the survey questionnaire and secondary data which is market data, stock price movement data sourced from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Indonesian Central Securities Depository, and Bank Indonesia, as well as empirical literature on behavior finance, investment decision, and interest in buying stock. The method used in this research is the survey questionnaire analysis with the SEM (statistical approach). The results of the analysis using SEM show that investor behavior influences the stock-buying interest, investor behavior, and the stock-buying interest influences investor decision-making. However, risk management does not influence investor-decision making. This occurs when the investigator's psychological capacity produces more decision information by decreasing all potential biases, allowing the best stock selection model to be selected. When the investigator's psychological capacity creates more decision information by reducing biases, the optimum stock selection model can be chosen.

INVESTIGATION ON OPTIMAL LOCATION OF SEPARATION PART FOR LARGE SCALE WIND TURBINE BLADE

  • Wooseong Jeong;Hyunbum Park
    • International Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.1-3
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    • 2024
  • Around the world, fossil fuel energy is being replaced with renewable energy due to environmental problems and sharp price increases. Many countries are making a change in the direction of moving toward eco-friendliness by reducing carbon emissions. Among renewable energies, the wind energy is eco-friendly because it produces electricity by wind power without carbon emissions, and it attracts attention worldwide as a great alternative to the exhausted fuel energy. To improve the efficiency of wind turbines, large and extra-large wind turbines have been developed all over the world by increasing install and diameter. These wind turbines have difficulty in transport after manufacture because of their size and height. Since the height of wind turbine blades is higher than the existing tunnel height, it is impossible to transport them. In this study, therefore, a 5 MW class large blade was separated for transport easiness as wind power generators became larger globally. Aerodynamic design and analysis was carried out for the blade. After performing structural design and analysis with the model designed, the stress concentration of the analyzed model and the various factors for consideration when separating were considered to conduct the study of selecting the optimal blade separation positions.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Korea's Optimal Basket Exchange Rate : Thoughts on the Proper Operation of the Market Average Rate Regime (우리나라의 적정(適正)바스켓환율(換率) : 시장평균환율제도(市場平均換率制度)의 운용기준(運用基準) 모색(模索))

  • Oum, Bong-sung
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.111-125
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    • 1990
  • For the last several years, considerable criticism has been leveled against Korea's exchange rate management. While Korea was designated a currency manipulator by the U.S., domestically it is often complained that the won/dollar rate did not adequately reflect changes in Korea's export competitiveness and fluctuations in the exchange rates of major currencies. In view of this situation, Korea changed its exchange regime at the beginning of March this year from the dual currency basket system to a more flexible one, called a "market average rate regime". Under this new regime, the won rate is determined in the exchange market based upon the supply of and demand for foreign exchange and is allowed to freely fluctuate each day within a + 0.4 % range. This paper, first, seeks to evaluate Korea's exchange rate management under the dual basket regime of the 1980s, and then to construct an optimal currency basket for the won which could provide a proper indicator for exchange market intervention under the new market average rate regime. The analysis of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the won indicates that the won rates in the 1980s failed not only to offset changes in relative prices between home and trading partner countries, but also to properly respond to variations in major exchange rates as further evidenced by sizable fluctuations in the nominal effective rates of the won. In other words, the currency basket regime which was adopted in 1980 for the stabilization of the REER of the won has not been operated properly, mainly because authorities often resorted to policy considerations in determining the won's rate. In the second part of the paper, an optimal currency basket for Korea is constructed, designed to minimize the fluctuations in the REER of the won without including policy considerations as a factor. It is recognized, however, that both domestic and foreign price data are not available immediately for the calculation of the REER. For this problem, the approach suggested by Lipschitz (1980) is followed, in which optimal weights for currencies in the basket are determined based upon the past correlation between price and exchange rates. When the optimal basket is applied to Korea since the mid-80s, it is found that the REER of the won could have been much more stable than it actually was. We also argue for the use of variable weights rather than fixed ones, which would be determined by the changing relationship between exchange rates and relative prices. The optimal basket, and the optimal basket exchange rate based on that basket, could provide an important medium- or long-term reference for proper exchange market intervention under the market average rate regime, together with other factors, such as developments in the current account balance and changes in productivity.

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Optimal Incentives for Customer Satisfaction in Multi-channel Setting (멀티채널에서의 고객만족제고 인센티브 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.25-47
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    • 2010
  • CS is one of the major concerns of managers in the world because it is well known to be a key medium construct for firms' superior outcome. One of the major agents for CS management is retailers. Firms try to manage not only employees but also retailers to promote CS behaviors. And so diverse incentives are used to promote their CS behaviors under diverse channel setting such as multi-channel. However in spite of the rising needs there has been scarce studies on the optimal incentive structure for a manufacturer to offer competing retailers at the multi-channel. In this paper, we try to find better way for a manufacturer to promote the competing retailers' CS behaviors. We investigated how to promote the retailers' CS behavior via game-theoretic modeling. Especially, we focus on the possible incentive, CS bonus type reward introduced in the studies of Hauser, Simester, and Wernerfelt(1994) and Chu and Desai(1995). We build up a multi stage complete information game and derive a subgame perfect equilibrium using backward induction. Stages of the game are as following. (Stage 1) Manufacturer sets wholesale price(w) and CS bonus($\eta$). (Stage 2) Both retailers in competition set CS effort level($e_i$) and retail price($p_i$) simultaneously. (Stage 3) Consumers make purchasing decisions based on the manufacturer's initial reputation and retailers' CS efforts.

    Structure of the Model We investigated four issues about the topic as following: (1) How much total incentive is adequate for a firm of a specific level of reputation to promote retailers' CS behavior under multi-channel setting ?, (2) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of complimentary externalities between the retailers' CS efforts to promote retailers' CS behavior?, (3) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of cost to make CS efforts to promote retailers' CS behavior?, (4) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of competition between retailers to promote retailers' CS behavior? Our findings are as following. (1) The higher reputation has the manufacturer, the higher incentives for retailers at multi-channel are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the manufacturer's reputation level(a) under some parameter conditions(b=1/2;c=0;$\beta$=1/2). (2) The bigger complimentary externalities exists between the retailers' CS efforts, the higher incentives are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the complimentary externalities level($\beta$) under some parameter conditions(a=1;b=1/2;c=0). (3) The higher is the retailers' cost, the lower incentives are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the decreasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the cost level(c) under some parameter conditions(a=1;b=1/2;$\beta$=1/2). (4) The more competitive gets those two retailers, the higher incentives for retailers at multi-channel are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the competition level(b) under some parameter conditions(c=0;a=1;$\beta$=1/2). One of the major contribution points of this study is the fact that this study is the first to investigate the optimal CS incentive system under multi-channel setting.

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Analysis on Expected Profit for the Effective Operation of Social Cooperative -Focusing on the Education Model of the Meteorological Field (사회적협동조합의 효율적 운영을 위한 기대수익 분석 -기상분야 교육모델을 중심으로)

  • Kim, In-Gyum;Kim, Hyu-Min;Ahn, Suk-Hee;Lee, Seung-Wook;Kim, Jeong-Yun;Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.483-492
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    • 2015
  • This study involved elementary schoolchildren in Busan Metropolitan city and assumed the foundation of social cooperative associations that provide education services for meteorological fields, then we analyzed expected profits in a year for successful operation of first year. Twelve variables relating to profits and expenses were derived, and we used the decision tree for analyzing optimal expected profits. Profit-related variables were lecture's fee per hour and price of textbooks. Expense-related variables were production costs for the textbooks, annual salary for a teacher, education costs for a teacher, developing costs for the textbooks, traveling expenses, rental fees, and operating costs. Besides, by adding education demands, the number of grades, and the number of teachers, we analyzed changes in expected profits, considering variability of profits and expenses. As a result, despite of expected lower demands, to increase price of textbooks and education costs per hour was of advantage to enhance expected profits. The reason is that the more demand, the more increased production costs for textbooks, which is because not to make enough profits to offset the increased expenses due to lowered price of textbooks and education costs. Considering the value of public interest for social cooperative associations, price determination only concerning increase in demands will be avoided.

Effect of Sustainable Supply Chain Management on Satisfaction and Win-Win Cooperation: Comparison of Small and Medium-Sized Distribution Logistics Center and Chain Store (지속가능 공급사슬관리가 만족과 상생협력에 미치는 영향: 중소유통물류센터와 체인점의 비교)

  • RIM, Yong-Jae;YONG, Suk-Kwang
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.17-30
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Recent emergence of diverse businesses in the distribution industry has led small and medium-sized retailers and their distribution logistics centers to face difficulties. Transactions between companies are connected within a supply chain, and the companies have relationships in the form of a supplier and a buyer. Therefore, it is important to identify causes of problems among companies through supply chain and strategic partnerships, thus developing optimal management plans and maximizing performances of companies. This study proposes that sustainable supply chain management consists of product quality, price quality, distribution quality, and promotion quality based on stakeholder theory and resource-based view. This study examined the impacts of sustainable chain management factors on satisfaction and win-win cooperation. Research design, data, and methodology: In the proposed model, satisfaction plays a mediating role in the relationship between sustainable chain management and win-win cooperation. The data were collected from 245 owners who use small and medium-sized distribution logistics center and analyzed using 2SLS (two-stage least square) with SPSS 28.0. Exploratory factor analysis and correlation analysis were used to assess the validity and reliability of constructs. Results: The findings are as follows. In the case of the total and Nadeulgage samples, product, price, and distribution quality had a significant positive effect on satisfaction, but in the case of Neighborhood super, product and price quality have a significant positive effect on satisfaction. Satisfaction has a significant positive effect on win-win cooperation in the overall, Nadeulgage, and Neighborhood super. Satisfaction plays a partial or full mediating role in the case of total, Nadeulgage, Neighborhood super. Conclusions: This study emphasized the need for sustainable supply chain management of small and medium-sized distribution logistics centers by examining the relationship between small and medium-sized distribution logistics centers and chain stores. It was found that store satisfaction plays an important role in the win-win cooperation between small and medium-sized distribution logistics centers and chain stores. Small and medium-sized distribution logistics centers can maximize product quality, price quality, distribution quality, and promotion quality by understanding the effect of chain store-related satisfaction and win-win cooperation on chain stores.

Integer Programming Model to the Travelling Salesman Problems with Route Dependent Travel Cost (경로의존 이동 비용을 갖는 외판원 문제의 정수계획 모형)

  • Yu, Sung-Yeol
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.109-121
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    • 2010
  • In this study, we propose a solution procedure to solve travelling salesman problem(TSP) with special cost function, route dependent travelling salesman problem(RDTSP). First, we develop an integer programming model to describe the problem. In the model, a variable means a possible route. And, the number of variables in this model are extremely large. So, we develop a LP relaxation problem of the IP model and solve the relaxation problem by a column generation technique. The relaxation problem does not guarantee the optimal solution. If we get an integer solution in the ralaxation problem, then the solution is an optimal one. But, if not, we cannot get an optimal solution. So, we approach a branch and price technique. The overall solution procedure can be applied a printed circuit board(PCB) assembly process.

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Carcass Characteristics and Profitability Analysis Based on Slaughter Age of Hanwoo Steers

  • Lee, Sang-Cheol;Choi, Hyun-Ho;Shin, Jeong-Seop;Kim, Kyoung-Hoon;Oh, Young-Kyoon;Cheon, Dong-Won
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.315-323
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    • 2013
  • This study analyzed optimal slaughter ages and carcass traits to investigate factors that affect farm incomes. Carcass characteristics and economical analysis of 81 Hanwoo steers previously tested (Expt. 1) and 5,826 steers from Gangwon-Do, area A (Expt. 2) were used. In Expt. 1, the strongest relationship was between the slaughter age and the carcass weight based on the $R^2$ value, and the weakest relationship was between the slaughter age and the marbling score based on the $R^2$. The slaughter age, marbling score, and rib-eye area of steers slaughtered from 26 to 31 months of age had a positive effect on income, but back fat thickness had a negative effect. In the economical analysis of Expt. 1, the optimal time for slaughter was 31 months of age. In Expt. 2, composed of steers slaughtered from 26 to 35 months of age in farms site of area A, the income was highest from steers slaughtered at 28 months of age, after which the income decreased. From the results of Expt. 1 and 2, it is evident that the optimal slaughter age of Hanwoo steers is affected by the genetic differences of calves, the feeding program and management, fattening skills, or carcass price. In order to improve the income of individual farms, the slaughter age must be precisely decided by understanding the exact relationship between the feeding cost of Hanwoo steers and slaughter results, such as carcass weight, yield grade and quality grade.

Productivity, Cost, and Optimal Forest Road Network Density of Tree-length Yarding Operations with Tower Yarder (타워야더를 이용한 전간집재작업의 생산성 및 비용과 적정 노망밀도 분석)

  • Kim, Min-Kyu;Baek, Seung-An;Cho, Koo-Hyun;Jung, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.3
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    • pp.300-309
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    • 2017
  • The productivity, cost, and optimal forest road network density for tree-length yarding with K301-4 and HAM300 tower yarders were analyzed. The results showed that productivity decreased as the yarding distance increased. The productivity of the K301-4 was greater than that of the HAM300 as the maximum yarding distance was longer than 34 m. This difference increased as the load volume increased. As the K301-4 yarder had a higher purchase price and it took more time to set up compared to the HAM300, the HAM300 was cost effective. Therefore, in oder to introduce tower yarders to reduce operational cost, it is effective to increase the load volume during operations and to utilize the road network repeatedly for a long period.