• Title/Summary/Keyword: Opinion polls

Search Result 28, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Measuring the Third-Person Effects of Public Opinion Polls: Focusing On Online Polls (여론조사보도에 대한 제3자효과 검증: 온라인 여론조사를 주목하며)

  • Kim, Sung-Tae;Willnat, Las;Weaver, David
    • Korean journal of communication and information
    • /
    • v.32
    • /
    • pp.49-73
    • /
    • 2006
  • During the past decades, public opinion polls have become an ubiquitous tool for probing the complexity of people's beliefs and attitudes on a wide variety of issues. Especially since the late 1970s, the use of polls by news organizations has increased dramatically. Along with the proliferation of traditional polls, in the past few years pollsters and news organizations have come to recognize the advantages of online polls. Increasingly there has been more effort to take the pulse of the public through the Internet. With the Internet's rapid growth during the past years, advocates of online polling often emphasize the relative advantages over traditional polls. Researchers from Harris Black International Ltd., for example, argue that "Internet polling is less expensive and faster and offers higher response rates than telephone surveys." Moreover, since many of the newer online polls draw respondents from large databases of registered Internet users, results of online polls have become more balanced. A series of Harris Black online polls conducted during the 1998 gubernatorial and senatorial elections, for example, has accurately projected the winners in 21 of the 22 races it tracked. Many researchers, however, severely criticize online polls for not being representative of the larger population. Despite the often enormous number of participants, Internet users who participate in online polls tend to be younger, better educated and more affluent than the general population. As Traugott pointed out, the people polled in Internet surveys are a "self selected" group, and thus "have volunteered to be part of the test sample, which could mean they are more comfortable with technology, more informed about news and events ... than Americans who aren't online." The fact that users of online polls are self selected and demographically very different from Americans who have no access to the Internet is likely to influence the estimates of what the majority of people think about social or political issues. One of the goals of this study is therefore to analyze whether people perceive traditional and online public opinion polls differently. While most people might not differentiate sufficiently between traditional random sample polls and non representative online polls, some audiences might perceive online polls as more useful and representative. Since most online polls allow some form of direct participation, mostly in the form of an instant vote by mouse click, and often present their findings based on huge numbers of respondents, consumers of these polls might perceive them as more accurate, representative or reliable than traditional random sample polls. If that is true, perceptions of public opinion in society could be significantly distorted for those who rely on or participate in online polls. In addition to investigating how people perceive random sample and online polls, this study focuses on the perceived impact of public opinion polls. Similar to these past studies, which focused on how public opinion polls can influence the perception of mass opinion, this study will analyze how people perceive the effects of polls on themselves and other people. This interest springs from prior studies of the "third person effect," which have found that people often tend to perceive that persuasive communications exert a stronger influence on others than on themselves. While most studies concerned with the political effects of public opinion polls show that exit polls and early reporting of election returns have only weak or no effects on the outcome of election campaigns, some empirical findings suggest that exposure to polls can move people's opinions both toward and away from perceived majority opinion. Thus, if people indeed believe that polls influence others more than themselves, perceptions of majority opinion could be significantly altered because people might anticipate that others will react more strongly to poll results.

  • PDF

Analysis of public opinion in the 20th presidential election using YouTube data (유튜브 데이터를 활용한 20대 대선 여론분석)

  • Kang, Eunkyung;Yang, Seonuk;Kwon, Jiyoon;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.161-183
    • /
    • 2022
  • Opinion polls have become a powerful means for election campaigns and one of the most important subjects in the media in that they predict the actual election results and influence people's voting behavior. However, the more active the polls, the more often they fail to properly reflect the voters' minds in measuring the effectiveness of election campaigns, such as repeatedly conducting polls on the likelihood of winning or support rather than verifying the pledges and policies of candidates. Even if the poor predictions of the election results of the polls have undermined the authority of the press, people cannot easily let go of their interest in polls because there is no clear alternative to answer the instinctive question of which candidate will ultimately win. In this regard, we attempt to retrospectively grasp public opinion on the 20th presidential election by applying the 'YouTube Analysis' function of Sometrend, which provides an environment for discovering insights through online big data. Through this study, it is confirmed that a result close to the actual public opinion (or opinion poll results) can be easily derived with simple YouTube data results, and a high-performance public opinion prediction model can be built.

Public Opinion and Senate Treaty Ratification

  • Jeong, Gyung-Ho
    • Analyses & Alternatives
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.5-38
    • /
    • 2020
  • This paper investigates how public opinion has affected the United States Senate's votes on arms control treaties. Applying multilevel modeling with post-stratification to national polls, this paper produces estimates of state-level opinion on both the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty of 2010 and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty of 1999. Using these estimate, this paper examines the relationship between public opinion and the Senate's votes on the treaties. This paper finds that the influence of public opinion was mostly significant but indirect. These findings indicate that some version of the delegate model of representation is more applicable to foreign policy making in Congress.

  • PDF

A Public Opinion Polling Application with Robust Verification Based on the Ethereum Bolckchain (견고한 검증을 제공하는 이더리움 블록체인 기반의 여론조사 어플리케이션)

  • Jin, Jae-Hwan;Eom, Hyun-Min;Sun, Ju-Eun;Lee, Myung-Joon
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.895-905
    • /
    • 2018
  • Public opinion polls have a strong influence on modern society as a means of examining the tendency of social groups on specific issues. As the influence of the polls increases, the problem of forgery and falsification of the results becomes an important issue. So, to guarantee the reliability of the results, our society needs novel mechanisms. As one of such mechanisms, the Ethereum blockchain is an environment for developing decentralized applications with the reliable blockchain technology. Ethereum decentralized applications can utilize smart contracts to provide services for users in transparent and reliable ways. In this paper, we propose a polling method that guarantees reliability using the blockchain technology, which is a distributed ledger technique that makes forgery or falsification actually impossible. The proposed method provides a robust verification function on the results of the associated polls for individual voters and verification organizations. Also, we present a distributed opinion polling application running on our private Ethereum blockchain network, showing the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Study on the Relationship between the Emotions of the MZ Generation Revealed in Online Communities and Public Opinion Surveys (온라인 커뮤니티에 드러난 MZ세대의 감성과 여론조사 간 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • HanByeol Stella Choi;Sulim Kim;Hee-Dong Yang
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.101-118
    • /
    • 2023
  • The 'MZ generation' is accustomed to expressing their thoughts and opinions online. As a result, the role of social media in understanding the opinions and public sentiment of the MZ generation has become increasingly important. In particular, the role of social media in understanding the opinions of young people in political contexts such as policies and elections is becoming more significant. Traditionally, in such political situations, various institutions conduct opinion surveys to grasp the opinions of the people. However, existing opinion surveys have many errors and limitations in understanding the specific opinions of the entire population since they are conducted on arbitrary individuals through survey techniques. Online communities are representative social media that share the opinions of the public on specific issues such as politics, economics, and culture. Therefore, online communities are widely used as a means to supplement the limitations of traditional opinion polls. In particular, the MZ generation is familiar with online platforms, and their political support has significant influence on election results and policy decisions. With this regard, this study analyzed the relationship between the sentiment reflected in online community text data by age group on major candidates and public opinion survey support rates during the Korean presidential election for those in their 20s. The analysis showed that negative sentiments reflected in online communities by the MZ generation have a negative correlation with public opinion survey support rates. This study contributes to theory and practice by revealing a significant association between social media and public opinion polls.

Political Opinion Mining from Article Comments using Deep Learning

  • Sung, Dae-Kyung;Jeong, Young-Seob
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.9-15
    • /
    • 2018
  • Policy polls, which investigate the degree of support that the policy has for policy implementation, play an important role in making decisions. As the number of Internet users increases, the public is actively commenting on their policy news stories. Current policy polls tend to rely heavily on phone and offline surveys. Collecting and analyzing policy articles is useful in policy surveys. In this study, we propose a method of analyzing comments using deep learning technology showing outstanding performance in various fields. In particular, we designed various models based on the recurrent neural network (RNN) which is suitable for sequential data and compared the performance with the support vector machine (SVM), which is a traditional machine learning model. For all test sets, the SVM model show an accuracy of 0.73 and the RNN model have an accuracy of 0.83.

Analyzing Effective Poll Prediction Model Using Social Media (SNS) Data Augmentation (소셜 미디어(SNS) 데이터 증강을 활용한 효과적인 여론조사 예측 모델 분석)

  • Hwang, Sunik;Oh, Hayoung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.26 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1800-1808
    • /
    • 2022
  • During the election period, many polling agencies survey and distribute the approval ratings for each candidate. In the past, public opinion was expressed through the Internet, mobile SNS, or community, although in the past, people had no choice but to survey the approval rating by relying on opinion polls. Therefore, if the public opinion expressed on the Internet is understood through natural language analysis, it is possible to determine the candidate's approval rate as accurately as the result of the opinion poll. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of inferring the approval rate of candidates during the election period by synthesizing the political comments of users through internet community posting data. In order to analyze the approval rate in the post, I would like to suggest a method for generating the model that has the highest correlation with the actual opinion poll by using the KoBert, KcBert, and KoELECTRA models.

The Infrastructure of Public Opinion Research in Japan

  • Kubota, Yuichi
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.42-60
    • /
    • 2013
  • This article introduces the infrastructure of public opinion research in Japan by reviewing the development of polling organizations and the current situation of social surveys. In Japan, the polling infrastructure developed through the direction and encouragement of the U.S. occupation authorities. In the early 1969s, however, survey researchers began to conduct their own original polls in not only domestic but also cross-national contexts. An exploration of recent survey trends reveals that polling organizations tended to conduct more surveys during summer, in the mid-range of sample size (1,000-2,999), based on random sampling (response rates of 40-50%), and through the mail between April 2011 and March 2012. The media was the most active polling sector.

Bias caused by nonresponses and suggestion for increasing response rate in the telephone survey on election (전화 선거여론조사에서 무응답률 증가로 인한 편의와 응답률 제고 방안)

  • Heo, Sunyeong;Yi, Sucheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.315-325
    • /
    • 2016
  • Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

A Post-Examination of Forecasting Surveys for the 16th General Election (제 16대 국회의원 선거의 예측조사에 대한 사후적 검증)

  • 홍내리;허명희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
    • /
    • 2001.04a
    • /
    • pp.1.2-35
    • /
    • 2001
  • On the election day of the 16th Korea national Assembly, nationwide TV stations such as KBS, SBS and MBC broadcasted election forecasting based on telephone surveys and exit polls. The result turned out to be significantly wrong, undermining general audience's confidence on the 'ientific'surveys. The purpose of this study consists of the followings. I) What form of telephone surveys and exit polls were adopted by survey institutions in real field\ulcorner ii) What were the problems\ulcorner iii) What can we do to make it straight\ulcorner Major findings of the study include the ignorance of call-back rules in telephone survey and the inadequate number of sampled election posts to make satisfactory forecasting. It is pointed out that it is necessary to amend election laws related to election opinion polls to make a substantial progress.