• Title/Summary/Keyword: Oil Shock

Search Result 110, Processing Time 0.02 seconds

A GARCH-MIDAS approach to modelling stock returns

  • Ezekiel NN Nortey;Ruben Agbeli;Godwin Debrah;Theophilus Ansah-Narh;Edmund Fosu Agyemang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.31 no.5
    • /
    • pp.535-556
    • /
    • 2024
  • Measuring stock market volatility and its determinants is critical for stock market participants, as volatility spillover effects affect corporate performance. This study adopted a novel approach to analysing and implementing GARCH-MIDAS modelling methods. The classical GARCH as a benchmark and the univariate GARCH-MIDAS framework are the GARCH family models whose forecasting outcomes are examined. The outcome of GARCH-MIDAS analyses suggests that inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, and oil price are significant determinants of the volatility of the Johannesburg Stock Market All Share Index. While for Nigeria, the volatility reacts significantly to the exchange rate and oil price. Furthermore, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and oil price significantly influence Ghanaian equity volatility, especially for the long-term volatility component. The significant shock of the oil price and exchange rate to volatility is present in all three markets using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) framework. The GARCH-MIDAS, with a powerful fusion of the GARCH model's volatility-capturing capabilities and the MIDAS approach's ability to handle mixed-frequency data, predicts the volatility for all variables better than the traditional GARCH framework. Incorporating these two techniques provides an innovative and comprehensive approach to modelling stock returns, making it an extremely useful tool for researchers, financial analysts, and investors.

Quantitative Visualization of Supersonic Jet Flows (초음속 제트 유동의 정량적 가시화)

  • Lee, Jae Hyeok;Zhang, Guang;Kim, Heuy Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Visualization
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.53-63
    • /
    • 2017
  • Sonic and supersonic jets include many complicated flow physics associated with shock waves, shear layers, vortices as well as strong interactions among them, and have a variety of engineering applications. Much has been learned from the previous researches on the sonic and supersonic jets but quantitative assessment of these jets is still uneasy due to the high velocity of flow, compressibility effects, and sometimes flow unsteadiness. In the present study, the sonic jets issuing from a convergent nozzle were measured by PIV and Schlieren optical techniques. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) with Olive oil particles of $1{\mu}m$ was employed to obtain the velocity field of the jets, and the black-white and color Schlieren images were obtained using Xe ramp. A color filter of Blue-Green-Red has been designed for the color Schlieren and obtained from an Ink jet printer. In experiments, two types of sonic nozzles were used at different operating pressure ratios(NPR). The obtained images clearly showed the major features of the jets such as Mach disk, barrel shock waves, jet boundaries, etc.

A Study on the Characteristics of the Clutch Automation Mechanism of Hybrid Vehicles (하이브리드 차량용 클러치 자동화 기구의 특성 연구)

  • Lim, Won-Sik;Park, Sung-Cheon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
    • /
    • v.21 no.5
    • /
    • pp.778-783
    • /
    • 2012
  • Due to the increase of oil price, the needs of the reduction of the fuel cost is rising. Therefore, necessity of hybrid vehicle that runs with engine and the electric motor is on the rise. In order to improve the performance of hybrid vehicle, many researches is carried out. Hybrid vehicles have been developed with the various layout such as serial type, parallel type, power split type, and multi-mode type. The multi-mode hybrid vehicles are designed to show the efficient driving characteristics at low speed and high speed. But the multi-mode system have the problem such as frequent clutch engagement. Frequent clutch engagement causes the shock of vehicles, and the shock inhibits the ride comfort. In this study, automation mechanism of clutch operation is proposed to mitigate the shock at engaging clutch. For this purpose, the dynamic characteristics of motor control is numerically analyzed by using Matlab/Simulink.

Nonlinear frequency Response Analysis of Hydrodynamic Journal Bearing Under External Disturbance (외란을 받는 저널 베어링의 비선형 주파수 응답 해석)

  • 노병후;김경웅
    • Tribology and Lubricants
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.68-76
    • /
    • 1999
  • This paper presents the nonlinear characteristics of the oil lubricated hydrodynamic journal bearing. The traditional approach is to characterize the behavior and performance of fluid film hydrodynamic journal bearings by means of linearized bearing analysis. The objective of this paper is to examine the nonlinear characteristics of the journal bearing when an external sinusoidal shock is given to the system. The oil film force is obtained by solving the finite width Reynolds equation at each time step by the solution of the column method. Frequency response function and journal orbit obtained from both linear and nonlinear bearing simulations are compared with each other.

Time-Varying Effects of Oil Shocks on the Korean Economy (한국경제에 미치는 유가충격의 시간-가변적 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Cha, Kyungsoo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.495-520
    • /
    • 2018
  • Because of structural changes in the international oil market and the economy, it is widely recognized that the impact of oil shocks on the economy has weaken since the mid-1980s. This study tries to examine the validity of the recent perception about the relationship between oils shocks and the economy, estimating the time-varying effects of oil shocks on the Korean economy. The results show that the dynamic effects of oil shocks normalized to a one standard deviation has been relatively constant, in contrast to the recent perception and a number of existing studies. In addition, because the shape of impulse response functions at each point in time spanning from 1984:II to 2017:IV has not been changed significantly, it seems that the propagation mechanism of oil shocks also has not been substantially altered. These findings indicate that even though structural changes of the economy, such as the reduction in the share of oil consumption and the spread of high-efficiency energy technologies, have been rapidly progressed, it is not still enough to offset the negative effects of oil shocks. Rather, it seems that the recent perception about the shrinking effects of oil shocks is mainly due to the assumptions that do not reflect changes in the size of oil shocks. In particular, this problem appears more pronounced in the case of the typical a one standard deviation increase oil shock under homoskedasticity assumption, which is widely adopted in the most VAR analyses. Therefore, in estimating the effects of oil shocks on the economy, it is important to specify the correct model and normalization method, to reflect changes in the size of oil shocks.

A Study of the Control System for a Auto Loadsharing of the ship (선내 자동 부하분담 제어시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyo-Sung;Lim, Yong-Kon;Lee, Heung-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2005.07d
    • /
    • pp.3025-3027
    • /
    • 2005
  • As the energy and manpower saving in ship have been prominent figures since oil shock, resonable operation modes of propulsion and generating plants were made a through study for the practical use. Through the results of it, advanced countries developed the load-sharing system for the generator automation and could be realized the energy and manpower saving in ship.

  • PDF

Nonlinear Frequency Response Analysis of Hydrodynamic Journal Bearing Under External Disturbance (외란을 받는 저널 베어링의 비선형 주파수 응답해석)

  • 노병후;김경웅
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 1998.04a
    • /
    • pp.241-245
    • /
    • 1998
  • The traditional approach is to characterize the behavior and performance of fluid film hydrodynamic journal bearings by means of linearized bearing analysis. The objective of this paper is to examine the nonlinear characteristics of the journal bearing when an external sinusoidal shock is given to the system. The oil film force is obtained by solving the finite width Reynolds equation at each time step by the solution of the column method. Frequency response functions obtained from both linear and nonlinear bearing simulations are compared with each other.

  • PDF

A Development of Automation system and a way to use Solar Energy System Eefficiently in Greenhouse -Study on Growth and Yield of a cucumber in soil heating- (시설원예용 태양열 시스템의 효율적 이용과 자동화 장치개발(2) -지중가온에 의한 오이 생육 및 수량에 관한 연구-)

  • 김진현;오중열;구건효;김태욱
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Bio-Environment Control Conference
    • /
    • 1998.05a
    • /
    • pp.61-67
    • /
    • 1998
  • 1973년과 1978년의 1,2차 Oil Shock로 인하여 정부는 대체에너지 개발을 입법화하여 태양열의 이용을 촉진시켜왔다. 그 후 약 20년간 태양열 이용에 대한 효과적인 집열과 축열기술의 개발에 연구가 추진되었으며, 집열판(Flat-plate collector)의 개발과 열교환기, 축열장치의 설계 등 효율향상을 통하여 건축의 난방, 온수급탕 등이 주종을 이루었다. (중략)

  • PDF

The Contagion of Covid-19 Pandemic on The Volatilities of International Crude Oil Prices, Gold, Exchange Rates and Bitcoin

  • OZTURK, M. Busra Engin;CAVDAR, Seyma Caliskan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.171-179
    • /
    • 2021
  • In the international markets, financial variables can be volatile and may affect each other, especially in the crisis times. COVID-19, which began in China in 2019 and spread to many countries of the world, created a crisis not only in the global health system but also in the international financial markets and economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the contagious effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of selected financial variables such as Bitcoin, gold, oil price, and exchange rates and the connections between the volatilities of these variables during the pandemic. For this aim, we use the ARMA-EGARCH model to measure the impact of volatility and shocks. In other words, it is aimed to measure whether the impact of the shock on the financial variables of the contagiousness of the epidemic is also transmitted to the markets. The data was collected from secondary and daily data from September 2th 2019 to December 20th, 2020. It can be said that the findings obtained have statistically significant effects on the conditional variability of the variables. Therefore, there are findings that the shocks in the market are contaminated with each other.

NIR DIODE ARRAY SPECTROMETERS ON AGRICULTURAL HARVEST MACHINES OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK

  • Rode, Michael
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
    • /
    • 2001.06a
    • /
    • pp.1172-1172
    • /
    • 2001
  • Compact Near Infrared Diode Array Spectrometers offer new possibilities for on line quality assurance in the agricultural sector. Due to their speed and complete robustness towards temperature fluctuations and mechanical shock Diode Array Spectrometers are suitable for the use on Agricultural Harvest Machines. The growing consumer consciousness of food quality in combination with falling manufacturing prices demands procedures for an effective quality control system. The various conventional types of NIR instruments which have so far been used in laboratories are unsuitable for mobile applications under the rough conditions of field cropping not only because of their slow speed of measurement but also because of their shock sensitive filter wheels and monochromators necessary for fractionating polychromatic light. Another advantage of the on line use is the reduction of the sampling error because of the continuously measurement of the whole product. Considering the large economic importance of the dry matter content on agricultural products it is of particular advantage that water belongs to those constituents which are most easily assessed in the near infrared. While other constituents of economic importance such as starch, oil and protein in grains and seeds have a much lesser effect on NIR signals, their contents can nonetheless be assessed with high analytical precision on freshly harvested grains and seeds. In the last years several applications for on line quality assessment on harvesting machines were developed and tested. The talk will give an overview and outlook on existing and future possibilities of this new field of NIR applications.

  • PDF