• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.201-208
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• 2020

Terms of trade is an important indicator of the welfare gains from international trade to the exporting country. Terms of trade of oil-exporting countries are hypothesized to depend primarily on oil prices. The study assesses the relation between oil prices and the terms of trade of Saudi Arabia. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to determine the cointegration between the country's terms of trade and oil prices for the period 2000-2018. The data for net barter terms of trade is taken from World Development Indicators and oil price is taken from Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency. The results show that oil prices and terms of trade are cointegrated and any disequilibrium between the two variables is corrected by 35% in a year. The study also reports a positive relationship between the two items, both in the short run and long run. Diagnostic tests indicate the model to be fit. The results suggest that, for a primarily oil-producing country like Saudi Arabia, the terms of trade depend on oil prices. The study fills the gap in the literature on the study of terms of trade for Saudi Arabia for the last few years, where there has been a high volatility in oil prices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.89-97
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• 2021

This research aims to investigate the impact of falling oil prices at the beginning of 2020 on 82 industrial companies listed on the GCC stock markets. The research sample period is divided into two periods pre-COVID and during COVID covering the period starting 1st January 2020 to May 15, 2020. The research uses the Panel Least Square (PLS) method and Panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with fixed and random effects in each country. The results of GMM models reveal a positive relationship between oil prices and the share prices of industrial companies in the Gulf countries, which confirms that the share prices of industrial companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been negatively affected by the decline in oil prices with the beginning of 2020. The findings show that the highest impact of falling oil prices has been recorded in the industrial companies in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. However, the falling of oil prices does not have a significant effect on industrial companies in the state of Qatar. The research results suggest that GCC economies have to move on the path of non-reliance on Oil and gas-driven economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.123-129
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• 2020

This scholarly work is an effort to capture the effects of oil prices on the actual exchange rate between dollar and rupee. This is done with reference to the U.S. dollar as oil prices are marked in USD (U.S. Dollar) in the international market, and India is among the top five importers of oil. Using monthly data from January 2001 to May 2020. The study used the real GDP, money supply, short-term interest rate difference between two countries, and inflation apart from the crude oil prices per barrel as the factors that help define the exchange rate. The analysis, through cointegration and vector error correction method (VECM), suggests long and short-run causality amid prices of oil and the rate of exchange fluctuations. Oil prices are found to be negatively related to the exchange rate in the long term but positively related in the short term. The result of the Wald test also indicates the short-run causation from the short-term interest rate and the prices of crude oil towards the exchange rate. The present study shows that oil prices are evidence of the existence of short-term and long-term driving associations with short-term interest rates and exchange rates.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.105-118
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• 2008

There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.69-92
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• 2012

석유제품의 소비자는 국제 원유가격의 변동을 기준으로 국내 석유제품가격을 예측하기 때문에 국제 원유가격이 하락하였음에도 국내 석유제품가격이 인하되지 않는 경우 의문을 제기한다. 반면 국내 석유제품가격의 비대칭성에 대한 기존 연구들은 다양한 기간과 자료를 통해 국내 석유제품가격의 비대칭성을 분석하였으나 소비자가 느끼는 비대칭성의 의문을 해결하지는 못하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 다음과 같이 세 단계의 비대칭 분석을 실시하였다. 첫째로, 소비자가 느끼는 비대칭성을 확인하기 위해 국제 원유가격 변동에 따른 소비자가격의 비대칭성을 분석하였으며, 분석 결과 소비자가 느끼는 비대칭성을 확인하였다. 둘째로, 국제 원유가격과 실제 국내 석유제품가격의 결정 기준을 비교하기 위해 국제 원유가격과 환율을 고려한 국제 석유제품가격의 비대칭성을 분석하였으며, 분석 결과 국제 원유가격이 상승할 때 국제 석유제품가격은 더 큰 폭으로 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 소비자가 느끼는 비대칭성의 상당부분은 가격결정 기준이 다름에서 기인한 것이다. 셋째로, 가격을 결정하는 주체별 비대칭성을 비교하기 위해 국제 석유제품가격 변동에 따른 정유사가격, 대리점 및 주유소의 가격 및 세금 등의 단계별 가격의 비대칭 분석을 실시하였으며, 분석 결과 모든 유종에 있어서 정유사가격은 환율을 고려한 국제 석유제품가격에 다소 늦게 인하하나 양적으로는 대칭적으로 조정되며 대리점 및 주유소 단계는 오히려 국제 석유제품가격의 상승을 덜 반영하는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 휘발유와 경유의 세금 변동은 시간적 비대칭과 양적 비대칭의 효과와 동일하게 추정되었다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.782-788
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• 2008

Present Prices have reduced to $100 per barrel, but international oil prices caused big damage to local logistics industry due to rise in International oil prices and, in august 2008 oil prices reached up to 146 US. Depending on oil prices, the domestic logistic industry should develop a strategy by innovative management of purchase of supply for manufacturing industry and efficient supply and demand of resources which is believed to be more important. Accordingly, we want to analyze railroad logistics' present condition and effect on railroad industry that can expect affirmative development by oil-price rise and by developing strategies for efficient railroad logistics.

• 자원환경지질
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.447-456
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• 2023

2000년 이후에도 유가상승은 과거에 비견될 수 있을 만큼 상승하였으나 경제성장, 소비 등 경제변수들에 미치는 영향은 상대적으로 안정적인 모습을 보였다. 이에 본 연구는 우리 경제에 구조변화가 있었던 1998년 외환위기 시점을 기준으로 유가에 대한 우리 경제의 반응이 변화하였음을 실증적으로 보이고자 한다. 실증분석을 통해 1998년을 기준으로 전후 기간에 대해 유가 및 생산자물가가 소비자물가에 미치는 영향이 변화하였음을 확인하였고, 이어 산업부문별 부가가치율에 생산자물가가 미치는 영향도 변화하였음을 확인하였다. 이는 생산비용 상승의 소비자 가격에 전가가 완화되었으며 부가가치에도 영향이 완화되었음을 의미한다. 실증분석 결과의 원인에 대해서는 생산자물가와 소비자물가 간의 관계변화 및 그 원인, 유가상승에 따른 산업부문의 요소투입 및 생산품 변화 등 다양한 접근의 연구가 수행되어야 할 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.33-42
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• 2022

Oil prices have become more volatile as a result of global economic contraction and control measures. Before and during the COVID-19 crisis, this study examines the relationship between oil price swings and daily stock returns in the power sector. The impact is investigated using a panel Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Granger causality tests are used to see if oil prices are effective in predicting returns. The dynamic impact of supply shocks is studied using Impulse Response Functions (IRFs). From January 2011 to May 2021, the study used daily data from all listed power sector enterprises on the Pakistan stock exchange. To investigate the differences in reactions between the Pre-COVID and COVID eras, the sample was separated into two groups. Oil shocks are inversely associated with daily firm stock returns. The conclusions are further supported by the lack of impact of stock prices on oil prices. The relationship, however, deteriorates during the COVID pandemic. We could not uncover any evidence of a significant relationship. In developing countries that rely on oil imports, the study sheds light on the utility of oil price shocks in daily stock return predictions.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.183-188
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• 2019

본 연구는 단기금리, 환율 및 국제유가가 국제곡물가격에 미치는 영향을 EGARCH-GED 모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 국제곡물가격의 자체 이전 수익률 중 1개월 이전의 수익률은 대부분의 기간에서 국제곡물가격에 유의한 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 전체분석기간에서는 환율만이 국제곡물가격에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 환율상승기간에서는 경제변수 중 어느 것도 유의한 영향을 미치는 않는 것으로 나타난 반면, 환율하락기간에서는 유가만이 유의한 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 금융위기 이전의 기간에서는 금리, 환율, 유가가 모두 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았으나, 금융위기 이후의 기간에서는 유가만 국제곡물가격에 유의한 영향을 미쳤다. 결국 국제곡물가격에 영향을 미치는 요인은 시간의 경과에 따라 변화되고 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.15-39
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• 2001

The study, using the input-output analysis of 402 industrial sectors by Bank of Korea(BOK) and the resulting outcomes of price model, aims to evaluate the spillover effects the international fluctuations in crude oil prices have on the commodities prices and consequently, analyse the management and profitability of the offshore fisheries in Korea. At present, the fisher men are provided with tax-free oils for their fishing operations as specified under the Special Tax Treatment Control Law. However, the exhaustion of marine resources and new international fisheries agreements, which resulted in the loss of fishing grounds, made the stable catch even more unpredictable and the hike in the price of the international crude oil would have adverse effects on the fishing industry. The study revealed that the increasing rise in the price of crude oil would exert sweeping spillover effects on other industry sectors in general and accordingly, lead to a poorer performance by fisheries. The price spillover coefficients for the diesel oil was 0.6026, which would translate into the 42.6% increase in the prices of oil when the increase ratio of 73.3% for the base crude oil was applied based on the calculation methods employed in the study. This in turn increased the ratio of diesel oil required in the offshore fisheries from 23.3% to 16.6%, diminishing the ratio of current net profits to minus 2.0% from 4.2% otherwise. By fishing type, the Pair Trawl suffered current net profits loss most by ratio of minus 9.4% and other fisheries such as Coastal Stow Nets, Coastal Angling, Danish Sein also suffered ratio of 7% and more in the loss of current net profits. With the deteriorating fishing performance, coupled with the increasing international crude oil prices, it is urgently required that the authorities concerned deliberate in depth on such schemes as follows in efforts to secure stable fishing production. First, provision of large-scale storage facilities for oil is needed to timely adapt to the fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Secondly, in line with the stabilization of tax-free oil prices, duty levied on oils for fishing and tax collected from the refineries need to be tax-exempt. Thirdly, the beneficiaries from the provision of tax-free oil should be broadened, not limited to special fishing operation only. Fourth, investment in stabilization of the oil prices should be encouraged, possibly through funding from the formation of fisheries development funds underway.