• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.201-208
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• 2020

Terms of trade is an important indicator of the welfare gains from international trade to the exporting country. Terms of trade of oil-exporting countries are hypothesized to depend primarily on oil prices. The study assesses the relation between oil prices and the terms of trade of Saudi Arabia. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to determine the cointegration between the country's terms of trade and oil prices for the period 2000-2018. The data for net barter terms of trade is taken from World Development Indicators and oil price is taken from Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency. The results show that oil prices and terms of trade are cointegrated and any disequilibrium between the two variables is corrected by 35% in a year. The study also reports a positive relationship between the two items, both in the short run and long run. Diagnostic tests indicate the model to be fit. The results suggest that, for a primarily oil-producing country like Saudi Arabia, the terms of trade depend on oil prices. The study fills the gap in the literature on the study of terms of trade for Saudi Arabia for the last few years, where there has been a high volatility in oil prices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.89-97
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• 2021

This research aims to investigate the impact of falling oil prices at the beginning of 2020 on 82 industrial companies listed on the GCC stock markets. The research sample period is divided into two periods pre-COVID and during COVID covering the period starting 1st January 2020 to May 15, 2020. The research uses the Panel Least Square (PLS) method and Panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with fixed and random effects in each country. The results of GMM models reveal a positive relationship between oil prices and the share prices of industrial companies in the Gulf countries, which confirms that the share prices of industrial companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been negatively affected by the decline in oil prices with the beginning of 2020. The findings show that the highest impact of falling oil prices has been recorded in the industrial companies in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. However, the falling of oil prices does not have a significant effect on industrial companies in the state of Qatar. The research results suggest that GCC economies have to move on the path of non-reliance on Oil and gas-driven economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.123-129
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• 2020

This scholarly work is an effort to capture the effects of oil prices on the actual exchange rate between dollar and rupee. This is done with reference to the U.S. dollar as oil prices are marked in USD (U.S. Dollar) in the international market, and India is among the top five importers of oil. Using monthly data from January 2001 to May 2020. The study used the real GDP, money supply, short-term interest rate difference between two countries, and inflation apart from the crude oil prices per barrel as the factors that help define the exchange rate. The analysis, through cointegration and vector error correction method (VECM), suggests long and short-run causality amid prices of oil and the rate of exchange fluctuations. Oil prices are found to be negatively related to the exchange rate in the long term but positively related in the short term. The result of the Wald test also indicates the short-run causation from the short-term interest rate and the prices of crude oil towards the exchange rate. The present study shows that oil prices are evidence of the existence of short-term and long-term driving associations with short-term interest rates and exchange rates.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.105-118
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• 2008

There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.69-92
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• 2012

This paper analyzed price asymmetry of domestic petroleum products by distribution stage. Analyzing the asymmetry by distribution stage, we can investigate the gap between analysis results and consumers' perception. For the first stage, we analyzed asymmetries between retail prices including tax and the spot prices of crude oil. The results show that retail price increases more quickly in response to the crude oil prices rise than to the crude oil prices fall as consumers' perception. For the second stage, we analyzed asymmetry of international petroleum product prices in Korean Won with the change in the crude oil spot prices. The results show that international petroleum product prices increase higher in response to the crude oil prices increase than to the crude oil prices decrease. For the final stage, we examined the asymmetry of wholesale price and retail price with the change in the international petroleum product prices in Korean Won. The results show that wholesale prices increase more quickly in response to the crude oil prices rise than to the international petroleum product prices fall. The retail prices, however, decrease more quickly in response to the crude oil prices fall than to the international petroleum product prices rise.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.11b
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• pp.782-788
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• 2008

Present Prices have reduced to $100 per barrel, but international oil prices caused big damage to local logistics industry due to rise in International oil prices and, in august 2008 oil prices reached up to 146 US. Depending on oil prices, the domestic logistic industry should develop a strategy by innovative management of purchase of supply for manufacturing industry and efficient supply and demand of resources which is believed to be more important. Accordingly, we want to analyze railroad logistics' present condition and effect on railroad industry that can expect affirmative development by oil-price rise and by developing strategies for efficient railroad logistics.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.56 no.4
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• pp.447-456
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• 2023

Even after 2000, oil prices rose enough to be comparable to the past, but the impact on economic variables was relatively stable. Therefore, this study tries to empirically examine that the response of the Korean economy to oil prices has changed since the 1998 financial crisis, when there was a structural change in the Korean economy. Through empirical analysis, it was tested that the influence of oil prices and producer prices on consumer prices had changed in the period before and after 1998, and that the influence of producer prices on the value-added ratio by industry sector also changed. This means that the transfer of the increase in production cost to consumer prices has been alleviated, and the impact on added value has also been alleviated. Various studies should be conducted to understand the causes of the empirical results, such as changes in the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices, factors in the industrial sector due to rising oil prices, and changes in products.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.33-42
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• 2022

Oil prices have become more volatile as a result of global economic contraction and control measures. Before and during the COVID-19 crisis, this study examines the relationship between oil price swings and daily stock returns in the power sector. The impact is investigated using a panel Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Granger causality tests are used to see if oil prices are effective in predicting returns. The dynamic impact of supply shocks is studied using Impulse Response Functions (IRFs). From January 2011 to May 2021, the study used daily data from all listed power sector enterprises on the Pakistan stock exchange. To investigate the differences in reactions between the Pre-COVID and COVID eras, the sample was separated into two groups. Oil shocks are inversely associated with daily firm stock returns. The conclusions are further supported by the lack of impact of stock prices on oil prices. The relationship, however, deteriorates during the COVID pandemic. We could not uncover any evidence of a significant relationship. In developing countries that rely on oil imports, the study sheds light on the utility of oil price shocks in daily stock return predictions.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.183-188
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• 2019

This study analyzed the effects of short-term interest rates, exchange rates and international oil prices on international grain prices using the EGARCH-GED model. The yield before one month of the international grain prices itself was found to have a significant effect on international grain prices for most periods. During the entire analysis period, none of the economic variables appeared to have a significant effect on international grain prices, whereas during the exchange fall period, only oil prices were shown to have a significant effect on international grain prices. In addition, during the pre-crisis period, interest rates, exchange rates and oil prices did not all have a significant effect, but during the post-crisis period only oil prices had a significant effect on international grain prices. It turns out that the factors affecting international grain prices are changing with the passage of time.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.15-39
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• 2001

The study, using the input-output analysis of 402 industrial sectors by Bank of Korea(BOK) and the resulting outcomes of price model, aims to evaluate the spillover effects the international fluctuations in crude oil prices have on the commodities prices and consequently, analyse the management and profitability of the offshore fisheries in Korea. At present, the fisher men are provided with tax-free oils for their fishing operations as specified under the Special Tax Treatment Control Law. However, the exhaustion of marine resources and new international fisheries agreements, which resulted in the loss of fishing grounds, made the stable catch even more unpredictable and the hike in the price of the international crude oil would have adverse effects on the fishing industry. The study revealed that the increasing rise in the price of crude oil would exert sweeping spillover effects on other industry sectors in general and accordingly, lead to a poorer performance by fisheries. The price spillover coefficients for the diesel oil was 0.6026, which would translate into the 42.6% increase in the prices of oil when the increase ratio of 73.3% for the base crude oil was applied based on the calculation methods employed in the study. This in turn increased the ratio of diesel oil required in the offshore fisheries from 23.3% to 16.6%, diminishing the ratio of current net profits to minus 2.0% from 4.2% otherwise. By fishing type, the Pair Trawl suffered current net profits loss most by ratio of minus 9.4% and other fisheries such as Coastal Stow Nets, Coastal Angling, Danish Sein also suffered ratio of 7% and more in the loss of current net profits. With the deteriorating fishing performance, coupled with the increasing international crude oil prices, it is urgently required that the authorities concerned deliberate in depth on such schemes as follows in efforts to secure stable fishing production. First, provision of large-scale storage facilities for oil is needed to timely adapt to the fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Secondly, in line with the stabilization of tax-free oil prices, duty levied on oils for fishing and tax collected from the refineries need to be tax-exempt. Thirdly, the beneficiaries from the provision of tax-free oil should be broadened, not limited to special fishing operation only. Fourth, investment in stabilization of the oil prices should be encouraged, possibly through funding from the formation of fisheries development funds underway.