• Title/Summary/Keyword: Observation Model

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Statistical analysis of recurrent gap time events with incomplete observation gaps (불완전한 관측틈을 가진 재발 사건 소요시간에 대한 자료 분석)

  • Shin, Seul Bi;Kim, Yang Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.327-336
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    • 2014
  • Recurrent event data occurs when a subject experiences same type of event repeatedly and is found in various areas such as the social sciences, Economics, medicine and public health. To analyze recurrent event data either a total time or a gap time is adopted according to research interest. In this paper, we analyze recurrent event data with incomplete observation gap using a gap time scale. That is, some subjects leave temporarily from a study and return after a while. But it is not available when the observation gaps terminate. We adopt an interval censoring mechanism for estimating the termination time. Furthermore, to model the association among gap times of a subject, a frailty effect is incorporated into a model. Programs included in Survival package of R program are implemented to estimate the covariate effect as well as the variance of frailty effect. YTOP (Young Traffic Offenders Program) data is analyzed with both proportional hazard model and a weibull regression model.

Evaluation of Observation Environment for Weather Stations Located in Metropolitan Areas (GIS 자료를 활용한 대도시 지역 기상관측소 관측환경 평가)

  • Yang, Ho-Jin;Kim, Jae-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.193-203
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    • 2015
  • In this study, effects of buildings and topography on observation environment of weather stations located on mountainous terrain in metropolitan areas are investigated using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. In order to investigate the characteristics of flow pattern around the weather stations, geographic information system (GIS) data are used to construct surface boundary input data of the CFD model. In order to evaluate effects of buildings and topography on wind speed and direction at three weather stations located in Deajeon, Busan, and Gwangju., target areas around the weather stations are selected and 16 cases with different inflow directions for each target area are considered. The simulated wind speed and direction at the weather stations are compared with those of inflow. As a whole, wind speed at the weather stations decreases due to drag effects of the buildings and topography in the upwind regions. This study shows that GIS data and the CFD model are successfully applicable to evaluation of observation environment for weather stations.

Observation Practice Using a Human Body Model in Medical Terminology Class (의학용어 수업에서 인체 모형을 이용한 관찰 실습)

  • Hyun-Woo Jeong;Hojun Yeom;Sangsoo Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2024
  • Biomedical engineering is a discipline that diagnoses and treats human diseases using engineering techniques based on medical and biological understanding. Proper biomedical engineering education requires education on medical terminology, human anatomy, and human physiology, but students have a preconceived notion that these basic medical subjects are subjects to be memorized. In order to eliminate these students' preconceptions, various educational methods must be developed so that students can easily access basic medical subjects. In this paper, we present a method to increase learning effectiveness by introducing observation practice of a human anatomical model to the medical terminology subject. The half-body model of the human body is a form in which various organs are assembled and can be observed by disassembling them one by one. This observation exercise consisted of questions about the organs of the head, neck, chest, and abdomen, with students working in groups to find answers. After the practice, students evaluated that this practice motivated them to learn and made it easier to understand the lecture.

An Observation Supporting System for Predicting Citrus Fruit Production

  • Kang, Hee Joo;Yoo, Seung Tae;Yang, Young Jin
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a growth prediction model that can predict growth and development information influencing the production of citrus fruits: the growth model algorithm that can predict floral leaf ratio, number of fruit sets, fruit width, and overweight depending on the main period of growth and development with consideration of the applied weather factors. Every year, large scale of manpower was mobilized to investigate the production of outdoor-grown citrus fruits, but it was limited to recycling the data without an observation supporting system to systemize the database. This study intends to create a systematical database based on the basic data obtained through the observation supporting system in application of an algorithm according to the accumulated long term data and prepare a base for its continuous improvement and development. The importance of the observed data is increasingly recognized every year, and the citrus fruit observation supporting system is important for utilizing an effective policy and decision making according to various applications and analysis results through an interconnection and an integration of the investigated statistical data. The citrus fruit is a representative crop having a great ripple effect in Jeju agriculture. An early prediction of the growth and development information influencing the production of citrus fruits may be helpful for decision making in supply and demand control of agricultural products.

Study on the Impact of Various Observations Data Assimilation on the Meteorological Predictions over Eastern Part of the Korean Peninsula (관측자료별 자료동화 성능이 한반도 동부 지역 기상 예보에 미치는 영향 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Seon;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Sohn, Keon-Tae
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.27 no.11
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    • pp.1141-1154
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    • 2018
  • Numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effect of data assimilation of observational data on weather and PM (particulate matter) prediction. Observational data applied to numerical experiment are aircraft observation, satellite observation, upper level observation, and AWS (automatic weather system) data. In the case of grid nudging, the prediction performance of the meteorological field is largely improved compared with the case without data assimilations because the overall pressure distribution can be changed. So grid nudging effect can be significant when synoptic weather pattern strongly affects Korean Peninsula. Predictability of meteorological factors can be expected to improve through a number of observational data assimilation, but data assimilation by single data often occurred to be less predictive than without data assimilation. Variation of air pressure due to observation nudging with high prediction efficiency can improve prediction accuracy of whole model domain. However, in areas with complex terrain such as the eastern part of the Korean peninsula, the improvement due to grid nudging were only limited. In such cases, it would be more effective to aggregate assimilated data.

Cluster Analysis and Meteor-Statistical Model Test to Develop a Daily Forecasting Model for Jejudo Wind Power Generation (제주도 일단위 풍력발전예보 모형개발을 위한 군집분석 및 기상통계모형 실험)

  • Kim, Hyun-Goo;Lee, Yung-Seop;Jang, Moon-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.1229-1235
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    • 2010
  • Three meteor-statistical forecasting models - the transfer function model, the time-series autoregressive model and the neural networks model - were tested to develop a daily forecasting model for Jejudo, where the need and demand for wind power forecasting has increased. All the meteorological observation sites in Jejudo have been classified into 6 groups using a cluster analysis. Four pairs of observation sites among them, all having strong wind speed correlation within the same meteorological group, were chosen for a model test. In the development of the wind speed forecasting model for Jejudo, it was confirmed that not only the use a wind dataset at the objective site itself, but the introduction of another wind dataset at the nearest site having a strong wind speed correlation within the same group, would enhance the goodness to fit of the forecasting. A transfer function model and a neural network model were also confirmed to offer reliable predictions, with the similar goodness to fit level.

Time-series Analysis and Prediction of Future Trends of Groundwater Level in Water Curtain Cultivation Areas Using the ARIMA Model (ARIMA 모델을 이용한 수막재배지역 지하수위 시계열 분석 및 미래추세 예측)

  • Baek, Mi Kyung;Kim, Sang Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the impact of greenhouse cultivation area and groundwater level changes due to the water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complexes. The groundwater observation data in the Miryang study area were used and classified into greenhouse and field cultivation areas to compare the groundwater impact of water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complex. We identified the characteristics of the groundwater time series data by the terrain of the study area and selected the optimal model through time series analysis. We analyzed the time series data for each terrain's two representative groundwater observation wells. The Seasonal ARIMA model was chosen as the optimal model for riverside well, and for plain and mountain well, the ARIMA model and Seasonal ARIMA model were selected as the optimal model. A suitable prediction model is not limited to one model due to a change in a groundwater level fluctuation pattern caused by a surrounding environment change but may change over time. Therefore, it is necessary to periodically check and revise the optimal model rather than continuously applying one selected ARIMA model. Groundwater forecasting results through time series analysis can be used for sustainable groundwater resource management.

Experimental Study of Estimating the Optimized Parameters in OI (서남해안 관측자료를 활용한 OI 자료동화의 최적 매개변수 산정 연구)

  • Gu, Bon-Ho;Woo, Seung-Buhm;Kim, Sangil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.458-467
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is the suggestion of optimized parameters in OI (Optimal Interpolation) by experimental study. The observation of applying optimal interpolation is ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) data at the southwestern sea of Korea. FVCOM (Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) is used for the barotropic model. OI is to the estimation of the gain matrix by a minimum value between the background error covariance and the observation error covariance using the least square method. The scaling factor and correlation radius are very important parameters for OI. It is used to calculate the weight between observation data and model data in the model domain. The optimized parameters from the experiments were found by the Taylor diagram. Constantly each observation point requires optimizing each parameter for the best assimilation. Also, a high accuracy of numerical model means background error covariance is low and then it can decrease all of the parameters in OI. In conclusion, it is expected to have prepared the foundation for research for the selection of ocean observation points and the construction of ocean prediction systems in the future.

Development of a Transient Groundwater Flow Model in Pyoseon Watershed of Jeju Island: Use of a Convolution Method (컨벌루션 기법을 이용한 제주도 표선유역 부정류 지하수 흐름 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Seung-Gu;Koo, Min-Ho;Chung, Il-Moon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.481-494
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    • 2015
  • Groundwater level hydrographs from observation wells in Jeju island clearly illustrate distinctive features of recharge showing the time-delaying and dispersive process, mainly affected by the thickness and hydrogeologic properties of the unsaturated zone. Most groundwater flow models have limitations on delineating temporal variation of recharge, although it is a major component of the groundwater flow system. Recently, a convolution model was suggested as a mathematical technique to generate time series of recharge that incorporated the time-delaying and dispersive process. A groundwater flow model was developed to simulate transient groundwater level fluctuations in Pyoseon area of Jeju island. The model used the convolution technique to simulate temporal variations of groundwater levels. By making a series of trial-and-error adjustments, transient model calibration was conducted for various input parameters of both the groundwater flow model and the convolution model. The calibrated model could simulate water level fluctuations closely coinciding with measurements from 8 observation wells in the model area. Consequently, it is expected that, in transient groundwater flow models, the convolution technique can be effectively used to generate a time series of recharge.

Rainfall-Runoff Analysis of River Basin Using Spatial Data (지형공간 특성자료를 이용한 하천유역의 강우-유출해석)

  • 안승섭;이증석;도준현
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.949-955
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    • 2003
  • The subject basin of the research was the basin of Yeongcheon Dam located in the upper reaches of the Kumho River. The parameters of the model were derived from the results of abstracting topological properties out of rainfall-runoff observation data about heavy rains and Digital Elevation Modeling(DEM) materials. This research aimed at suggesting the applicability of the CELLMOD Model, a distribution-type model, in interpreting runoff based on the topological properties of a river basin, by carrying out runoff interpretation far heavy rains using the model. To examine the applicability of the model, the calculated peaking characteristics in the hydrograph was analyzed in comparison with observed values and interpretation results by the Clark Model. According to the result of analysis using the CELLMOD Model proposed in the present research for interpreting the rainfall-runoff process, the model reduced the physical uncertainty in the rainfall-runoff process, and consequently, generated improved results in forecasting river runoff. Therefore it was concluded that the algorithm is appropriate for interpreting rainfall-runoff in river basins. However, to enhance accuracy in interpreting rainfall-runoff it is necessary to supplement heavy rain patterns in subject basins and to subdivide a basin into minor basins for analysis. In addition, it is necessary to apply the model to basins that have sufficient observation data, and to identify the correlation between model parameters and the basin characteristics(channel characteristics).