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Online news-based stock price forecasting considering homogeneity in the industrial sector (산업군 내 동질성을 고려한 온라인 뉴스 기반 주가예측)

  • Seong, Nohyoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • Since stock movements forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, studies related to stock price prediction have been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into structured data and unstructured data, and it is divided into technical analysis, fundamental analysis and media effect analysis in detail. In the big data era, research on stock price prediction combining big data is actively underway. Based on a large number of data, stock prediction research mainly focuses on machine learning techniques. Especially, research methods that combine the effects of media are attracting attention recently, among which researches that analyze online news and utilize online news to forecast stock prices are becoming main. Previous studies predicting stock prices through online news are mostly sentiment analysis of news, making different corpus for each company, and making a dictionary that predicts stock prices by recording responses according to the past stock price. Therefore, existing studies have examined the impact of online news on individual companies. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with only online news of Samsung Electronics. In addition, a method of considering influences among highly relevant companies has also been studied recently. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with news of Samsung Electronics and a highly related company like LG Electronics.These previous studies examine the effects of news of industrial sector with homogeneity on the individual company. In the previous studies, homogeneous industries are classified according to the Global Industrial Classification Standard. In other words, the existing studies were analyzed under the assumption that industries divided into Global Industrial Classification Standard have homogeneity. However, existing studies have limitations in that they do not take into account influential companies with high relevance or reflect the existence of heterogeneity within the same Global Industrial Classification Standard sectors. As a result of our examining the various sectors, it can be seen that there are sectors that show the industrial sectors are not a homogeneous group. To overcome these limitations of existing studies that do not reflect heterogeneity, our study suggests a methodology that reflects the heterogeneous effects of the industrial sector that affect the stock price by applying k-means clustering. Multiple Kernel Learning is mainly used to integrate data with various characteristics. Multiple Kernel Learning has several kernels, each of which receives and predicts different data. To incorporate effects of target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously, we used Multiple Kernel Learning. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with variables of financial news of the industrial group divided by the target firm, K-means cluster analysis. In order to prove that the suggested methodology is appropriate, experiments were conducted through three years of online news and stock prices. The results of this study are as follows. (1) We confirmed that the information of the industrial sectors related to target company also contains meaningful information to predict stock movements of target company and confirmed that machine learning algorithm has better predictive power when considering the news of the relevant companies and target company's news together. (2) It is important to predict stock movements with varying number of clusters according to the level of homogeneity in the industrial sector. In other words, when stock prices are homogeneous in industrial sectors, it is important to use relational effect at the level of industry group without analyzing clusters or to use it in small number of clusters. When the stock price is heterogeneous in industry group, it is important to cluster them into groups. This study has a contribution that we testified firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard have heterogeneity and suggested it is necessary to define the relevance through machine learning and statistical analysis methodology rather than simply defining it in the Global Industrial Classification Standard. It has also contribution that we proved the efficiency of the prediction model reflecting heterogeneity.

The Role of Open Innovation for SME's R&D Success (중소기업 R&D 성공에 있어서 개방형 혁신의 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, In-Jin;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.89-117
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    • 2018
  • The Korean companies are intensifying competition with not only domestic companies but also foreign companies in globalization. In this environment, it is essential activities not only for large companies but also Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to get and develop the core competency. Particularly, SMEs that are inferior to resources of various aspects, such as financial resources etc., can make innovation through effective R&D investment. And then, SMEs can occupy a competency and can be survive at the environment. Conventionally, the method of "self-development" by using only the internal resources of the company has been dominant. Recently, however, R&D method through cooperation, also called "Open Innovation", is emerging. Especially SMEs are relatively short of available internal resources. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize technology and resources through cooperation with external companies(such as joint development or contract development etc.) rather than self-development R&D. In this context, we confirmed the effect of SMEs' factors on sales in Korea. Specifically, the factors that SMEs hold are classified as 'Technical characteristic', 'Company competency', and 'R&D activity' and analyzed how they influence the sales achieved as a result of R&D. The analysis was based on a two-year statistical survey conducted by the Korean government. In addition, we confirmed the influence of the factors on the sales according to the R&D method(Self-Development vs. Open Innovation), and also observed the influence change in 29 industrial categories. The results of the study are summarized as follows: First, regression analysis shows that twelve factors of SMEs have a significant effect on sales. Specifically, 15 factors included in the analysis, 12 factors excluding 3 factors were found to have significant influence. In the technical characteristic, 'imitation period' and 'product life cycle' of the technology were confirmed. In the company competency, 'R&D led person', 'researcher number', 'intellectual property registration status', 'number of R&D attempts', and 'ratio of success to trial' were confirmed. The R&D activity was found to have a significant impact on all included factors. Second, the influence of factors on the R&D method was confirmed, and the change was confirmed in four factors. In addition, these factors were found that have different effects on sales according to the R&D method. Specifically, 'researcher number', 'number of R&D attempts', 'performance compensation system', and 'R&D investment' were found to have significant moderate effects. In other words, the moderating effect of open innovation was confirmed for four factors. Third, on the industrial classification, it is confirmed that different factors have a significant influence on each industrial classification. At this point, it was confirmed that at least one factor, up to nine factors had a significant effect on the sales according to the industrial classification. Furthermore, different moderate effects have been confirmed in the industrial classification and R&D method. In the moderate effect, up to eight significant moderate effects were confirmed according to the industrial classification. In particular, 'R&D investment' and 'performance compensation system' were confirmed to be the most common moderating effect by each 12 times and 11 times in all industrial classification. This study provides the following suggestions: First, it is necessary for SMEs to determine the R&D method in consideration of the characteristics of the technology to be R&D as well as the enterprise competency and the R&D activity. In addition, there is a need to identify and concentrate on the factors that increase sales in R&D decisions, which are mainly affected by the industry classification to which the company belongs. Second, governments that support SMEs' R&D need to provide guidelines that are fit to their situation. It is necessary to differentiate the support for the company considering various factors such as technology and R&D purpose for their effective budget execution. Finally, based on the results of this study, we urge the need to reconsider the effectiveness of existing SME support policies.

Empirical Research on the R&D Investment and Performance of Venture Businesses (벤처기업의 R&D 투자와 성과에 관한 실증연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Ki;Lee, Cheol-Kyu;Kim, Jung-Hwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2008
  • In this research, an empirical analysis was performed to determine the correlation between management performance and Empirical Research on the R&D investment for domestic venture businesses in each industry. Specifically, an empirical analysis for each industry was attempted not only to clarify the general hypothesis on the relationship between management performance and R&D investment for venture businesses but also to demonstrate that differences exist for each industry. Empirical analysis was conducted for eight industries with respect to the $2002{\sim}2006$ panel data extracted as investigative results from the "Investigation Report on Science and Technology R&D Activities" published by the Ministry of Science and Technology. Industrial classification was limited to the middle-level classification (2-digit) in the Korea Standard Industry Code (KSIC) owing to the limited number of panels. Although this research only verified the overall positive effect of R&D activities and funds for existing research on corporate value or productivity and management performance, it was able to document the difference for each individual industry and each business size unlike existing research. Furthermore, the reliability of the research results was enhanced by targeting companies that have been continuously conducting R&D and management activities using consistent 5-year panel data in the analysis. Again, this was something that existing research did not have. Finally, through the use of recent data from 2002 after the IMF economic crisis up to 2006 in the empirical analysis, this research proposed the problems due to the prevailing circumstances at the time of entering the advanced nation stage based on an empirical analysis; the prevailing problems during the pursuit of advanced nation status before the IMF crisis broke out were not tackled. The key empirical analysis yielded several results. First, capital and size of the labor force have a positive correlation with the management performance for the entire company or the venture business. This applies to all eight industries as the subjects of the analysis. Second, although the number of years since a company has been established can have positive or negative correlation with management performance for the entire company or venture business in specific industries, a definite overall trend cannot be identified. Third, R&D investment can be said to have an overall positive effect on corporate management performance. Fourth, the size of the research staff cannot be said to be a factor unilaterally affecting the management performance of the entire company or the venture business. Fifth, the number of years a research institute has been in operation, which was assumed to have a positive effect on the management performance of a company because of the accumulated R&D know-how -- definitely acts as a positive factor contributing to the management performance of a company.

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Empirical Research on the R&D Investment and Performance of Venture Businesses (벤처기업의 R&D 투자와 성과에 관한 실증연구)

  • Lee, D.K.;Lee, C.K.;Kim, J.H.
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.179-208
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    • 2008
  • In this research, an empirical analysis was performed to determine the correlation between management performance and R&D investment for domestic venture businesses in each industry. Specifically, an empirical analysis for each industry was attempted not only to clarify the general hypothesis on the relationship between management performance and R&D investment for venture businesses but also to demonstrate that differences exist for each industry. Empirical analysis was conducted for eight industries with respect to the $2002{\sim}2006$ panel data extracted as investigative results from the "Investigation Report on Science and Technology R&D Activities" published by the Ministry of Science and Technology. Industrial classification was limited to the middle-level classification (2-digit) in the Korea Standard Industry Code (KSIC) owing to the limited number of panels. Although this research only verified the overall positive effect of R&D activities and funds for existing research on corporate value or productivity and management performance, it was able to document the difference for each individual industry and each business size unlike existing research.Furthermore, the reliability of the research results was enhanced by targeting companies that have been continuously conducting R&D and management activities using consistent 5-year panel data in the analysis. Again, this was something that existing research did not have. Finally, through the use of recent data from 2002 after the IMF economic crisis up to 2006 in the empirical analysis, this research proposed the problems due to the prevailing circumstances at the time of entering the advanced nation stage based on an empirical analysis; the prevailing problems during the pursuit of advanced nation status before the IMF crisis broke out were not tackled. The key empirical analysis yielded several results. First, capital and size of the labor force have a positive correlation with the management performance for the entire company or the venture business. This applies to all eight industries as the subjects of the analysis. Second, although the number of years since a company has been established can have positive or negative correlation with management performance for the entire company or venture business in specific industries, a definite overall trend cannot be identified. Third, R&D investment can be said to have an overall positive effect on corporate management performance. Fourth, the size of the research staff cannot be said to be a factor unilaterally affecting the management performance of the entire company or the venture business. Fifth, the number of years a research institute has been in operation, which was assumed to have a positive effect on the management performance of a company because of the accumulated R&D know-how -- definitely acts as a positive factor contributing to the management performance of a company.

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An Analysis of Health Examination Outcome in the Special Health Examination Institute (특수건강진단기관의 건강진단 결과 분석)

  • Ahn, Yeon-Soon;Jung, Sang-Hyuk;Shin, Dong-Chun;Won, Jong-Uk;Roh, Jae-Hoon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.28 no.3 s.51
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    • pp.663-677
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    • 1995
  • Special health examination institute has done periodic health examination for workers who have worked in the hazardous workplace. However, assessment on outcome in special health examination institute about detection ability of occupational disease has not been. In this circumstances, we studied on the differences of health examination outcome among special health examination institutes and identified related factors which affected outcome of special health examination in the special health examination institutes. The summary of the results were as follows. 1. 50 special health examination institutes were examined in this study. Among them, university institutes were 13 cases(26.0%), hospitals were 20 cases(40.0%), a corporation aggregates were 9 cases(18.0%) and an auxiliary organs of company were 8 cases(16.0%). There were 29(58.0%) institutes with a preventive medicine specialist, but 21 institutes(42.0%) were not. 2. Total workers examined in 50 institutes were 606,948 and workers diagnosed as occupational disease$(D_1)$ were 3,156. The rate of occupational disease was 6 workers per 1,000 examined workers. Workers needed for close observation(C) were 95,809 and the rate of workers needed for close observation was 141 per 1,000 examined workers. 3. The rate of occupational disease of university institutes was highest(11.3 per 1,000 examined workers), and followed by hospitals(6.0 per 1,000 examined workers), a corporation aggregates(4.2 per 1,000 examined workers), and an auxiliary organs of company(1.2 per 1,000 examined workers). The difference of the rate of occupational disease between university institutes and an auxiliary organs of company was statistically moderate significant(p<.1). The rate of occupational disease in special health examination institutes with establishment duration was more than 10 years was statistically higher than institutes with establishment duration was less than 10 years(p<.1). 4. The results of multiple regression, $R^2$ was 0.3394(adjusted $R^2$ was 0.2109), F-value was 2.6416(p<.05), and statistically significant variables were establishment duration(p<.01), number of examined workers per one doctor(p<.1), and auxiliary organs of company(p<.1), which dependent variable was the rate of occupational disease and independent variables were number of examined workers per one doctor, classification of institute, the rate of working environment exceeding TLV, duration of institute establishment, presence of a preventive medicine specialist.

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A study to Find Factors of the Box Office Record in Korean Popular Music : by Control Effects of Management Companies and Distribution Companies (대중음악 흥행결정요인이 국내대중음악 흥행성과에 미치는 영향 : 기획사와 유통사의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yang Sug;Lee, Sang Houck
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to find the factors of the box office record in Korean popular music. For this purpose, 1.239 musics were selected in the Gaon digital weekly album chart from second week July 2013 to first week July 2014. The result can be summarized as follows: First, entertainment of music company, distribution of music company, singer, OST(Original Sound Track), television show, SNS and high ranking in the first week of its release are the factors of the box office record in Korean popular music. Second, entertainment of a large number of music production company is more effective than the others, but there is no difference in the case of distribution music company. Third, musics of singers who have large number of music ranked Gaon digital chart and appearance of television show program are effective in the box office record in Korean popular music. Fourth, SNS are great factors to promote Korean popular music. Fifth, it is important to rank high position in the first week of its release.

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Effects of the Innovative Company Certification System on Technological Innovation Activities and Performance of SMEs (혁신형 기업 인증 제도가 중소기업의 기술적 혁신 활동과 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoo, Hyoung Sun;Jun, Seung-pyo;Kim, Ji Hui
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1212-1242
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the effectiveness of the innovative company certification system, which is one of the important means of the SME innovation promotion policies, was examined in terms of technological innovation activity and performance. To this end, we used the results of 'SME Technology Statistical Survey' conducted by the Small and Medium Business Administration and the Korea Federation of Small and Medium Business in 2013~2015 to compare the innovative SMEs that have received the certifications such as Venture Certification, Innobiz Certification, and Mainbiz Certification with the general SMEs that did not. As a result, it was found that the innovative SMEs have comparative advantage in many detailed indicators related to the technological innovation activity and performance. However, the ratio of external use of R&D expenditure, the number of technology development attempts and the number of successes were not different according to the survey year, so it is necessary to strengthen the follow-up management of the system. On the other hand, the proportion of self-procurement R&D expenditure of the general SMEs was significantly higher than that of the innovative SMEs in all three-year surveys. Therefore, it is necessary to regulate the government funding for the innovative SMEs to be used as a complementary material, not as a substitute for their own R&D investment. In addition, the technological innovation activity and performance of a company were more influenced by the size of the company and the participating industry rather than by the certification, so it is necessary to consider it when establishing the technology innovation promotion policies.

Efficiency Analysis of the Labor Input for Safety Management in Construction Sites (건설현장 안전관리 인력투입에 대한 효율성 분석)

  • Yang, Yong Koo;Kim, Byung Suk
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzed the safety management efficiency through input-oriented BCC Model using DEA by making of Models, in which this study selected the number of staff affiliated with the construction site, number of staff members on the construction team, and number of safety personnel as Input Factor, along with the number of disaster victims and zero-accident accomplished hours as output elements, targeting 40-or-so apartment building construction sites which are being built by 3 domestic construction companies. As a result of efficiency, it was 0.643, the number of efficient DMU was 4. In the aspect of returns to scale, 21 construction sites(52.5%) found to be in a state of increasing returns while 14 construction sites(35%) was in a state of Decreasing returns. The reason for inefficiency was found to lie in technical factors in case of 30 construction sites(75%). Lastly, inefficient DMU is in need of 38.9 % and 66% reduction in site personnel and safety personnel. Based on study results, the 29 construction sites accounting for 72.5% of DMU for safety management efficiency evaluation object turned out to do inefficient safety management that doesn't fit the size of each company.

Fuzzy Learning Method Using Genetic Algorithms

  • Choi, Sangho;Cho, Kyung-Dal;Park, Sa-Joon;Lee, Malrey;Kim, Kitae
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.841-850
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    • 2004
  • This paper proposes a GA and GDM-based method for removing unnecessary rules and generating relevant rules from the fuzzy rules corresponding to several fuzzy partitions. The aim of proposed method is to find a minimum set of fuzzy rules that can correctly classify all the training patterns. When the fine fuzzy partition is used with conventional methods, the number of fuzzy rules has been enormous and the performance of fuzzy inference system became low. This paper presents the application of GA as a means of finding optimal solutions over fuzzy partitions. In each rule, the antecedent part is made up the membership functions of a fuzzy set, and the consequent part is made up of a real number. The membership functions and the number of fuzzy inference rules are tuned by means of the GA, while the real numbers in the consequent parts of the rules are tuned by means of the gradient descent method. It is shown that the proposed method has improved than the performance of conventional method in formulating and solving a combinatorial optimization problem that has two objectives: to maximize the number of correctly classified patterns and to minimize the number of fuzzy rules.

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Association analysis of polymorphisms of G protein-coupled receptor 54 gene exons with reproductive traits in Jiaxing Black sows

  • Wu, Fen;Zhang, Wei;Song, Qian-Qian;Li, Hai-Hong;Xu, Ming-Shu;Liu, Guo-Liang;Zhang, Jin-Zhi
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.32 no.8
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    • pp.1104-1111
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    • 2019
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) of G protein-coupled receptor 54 (GPR54) gene and explore association of this candidate gene with reproductive traits in Jiaxing Black sows. Methods: Six pairs of primers of the gene were designed to amplify all exons thus sequences of which were detected by means of direct sequencing and then SNP loci were scanned. The effects of SNPs on total number of piglets born (TNB), number of piglets born alive (NBA), number of still born piglets (NSB), and litter weight at birth (LWB) of Jiaxing Black sows were analyzed. Results: Three SNP loci, including T3739C, C3878T and T6789C, were identified via comparison of sequencing and two genotypes (AB, BB) at each SNP site were observed. T3739C resulted in the change of amino acid ($Leu{\rightarrow}Pro$) in corresponding protein, and C3878T resulted in synonymous mutation ($Ile{\rightarrow}Ile$). Statistical results demonstrated that allele B was the preponderant allele at the three SNP loci and Genotype BB was the preponderant genotype. Meanwhile, Chi-Square test of these three SNPs indicated that all mutation sites fitted in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (p>0.05). For GPR54-T3739C locus, Jiaxing Black sows with genotype BB had 1.23 TNB and 1.28 NBA (p<0.01) that were more than those with genotype AB, respectively. Jiaxing Black sows that had the first two parities with genotype BB had additional 2.23 TNB, 2.27 NBA (p<0.01), and 1.94 LWB (p<0.05) compared to those with genotype AB, respectively. However, for other two loci, no significant difference was found between TNB, NBA, NSB, and LWB, and different genotypes of Jiaxing Black sows. Conclusion: In conclusion, the polymorphisms of GPR54-T3739C locus were significantly associated to TNB, NBA, and LWB and could be used as a potential genetic marker to improve reproductive function of Jiaxing black sows.