• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.421-433
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• 2021

The present multidisciplinary study, which is a nexus of engineering and political science, investigates how the modernization of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons (NSNWs) affects the IAEA safeguards system based on the likelihood of the use of nuclear weapons. To this end, this study examines the characteristics of modernized NSNWs using Monte Carlo techniques. The results thus obtained show that 10 kt NSNWs with a Circular Error Probability (CEP) of 10 m can destroy the target as effectively as a 500 kt weapon with a CEP of 100 m. The IAEA safeguards system shows that the Significant Quantity (SQ) of 1 of plutonium is 8 kg, a parameter that was established when strategic nuclear weapons were dominant. However, the results of this study indicate that in recent years, low-yield nuclear weapons such as NSNWs have been more strategically interesting than strategic nuclear weapons as NSNWs require less plutonium than strategic nuclear weapons. Therefore, we would like to conclude that reducing the SQ of plutonium can result in more robust safeguards and non-proliferation strategies.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.454-466
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• 2017

North Korea intended to increase the power of its nuclear weapons and standardize warhead to be loaded in ballistic missiles through the $4^{th}$ and $5^{th}$ nuclear tests. In this study, three kinds of nuclear weapons that North Korea might have used in the $4^{th}$ and $5^{th}$ nuclear tests to achieve their technical goals were suggested. Monte Carlo modeling and various technical assessments have shown that boosted fission weapons are most likely to be used. Also, using the empirical formula considering the burial depth of explosion, we found that the yield of the $4^{th}$ and $5^{th}$ nuclear tests is at least twice as strong as that is expected it could be and the initial design power could reach 8kt before amplification. This means that North Korea has already achieved a substantial level of nuclear fusion technology through the $4^{th}$ test and has made a breakthrough in the miniaturization of nuclear weapons through the $5^{th}$ test. After two or three additional tests, North Korea is expected to have nuclear missiles equipped with nuclear warhead by 2020, which is expected to complete ballistic missile development.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.400-405
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• 2015

북한의 화생방무기 운용체계는 세계적으로 상당한 수준에 도달해 있다. 이에 미국은 화생방 공격에 대비하여 다양한 형태의 대피소를 확보하고 있으며 재난특성을 고려해 등급별로 구분하여 운용하고 있는 실정이나, 한국은 재난특성에 대한 고려 없이 무분별하게 대피소를 지정해 효과적인 방호능력을 기대하기 어려운 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 기존에 사용되는 시설물 현황에 대하여 살펴보고 화생방 대피시설로의 전환이 용이한 시설물을 선별하기 위해 시설별 특성을 파악하였으며 연구를 통해 얻은 결과 및 제안사항을 제시하고 있다.