• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.533-542
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• 2010

The $PM_{10}$ concentrations in the underground should be monitored for the health of commuters on the underground subway system. Seoul Metro and Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Corporation are measuring several air pollutants regularly. As for the measurement of $PM_{10}$ concentrations, instruments based on $\beta$-ray absorption method and gravimetric methods are being used. But the instruments using gravimetric method give us 20-hour-average data and the $\beta$-ray instruments can measure the $PM_{10}$ concentration every one hour. In order to keep the $PM_{10}$ concentrations under a healthy condition, the air quality of the underground platform and tunnels should be monitored and controlled continuously. The $PM_{10}$ instruments using light scattering method can measure the $PM_{10}$ concentrations every less than one minute. However, the reliability of the instruments using light scattering method is still not proved. The purpose of this work is to study the reliability of the instruments using light scattering method to measure the $PM_{10}$ concentrations continuously in the underground platforms. One instrument using $\beta$-ray absorption method and two different instruments using light scattering method (LSM1, LSM2) were placed at the platform of the Jegi station of Seoul metro line Number 1 for 10 days. The correlation between the $\beta$-ray instrument and the LSM2 ($r^2$=0.732) was higher than that between the $\beta$-ray instrument and the LSM1 ($r^2$=0.393). Thus the LSM2 was chosen for further analysis. Three different regression analysis methods were tested: Linear regression analysis, Nonlinear regression analysis and Orthogonal regression analysis. When the instruments using light scattering method were used, the data measured these instruments have to be converted to actual $PM_{10}$ concentrations using some factors. With these analyses, the factors could be calculated successfully as linear and nonlinear forms with respect to the data. And the orthogonal regression analysis was performed better than the ordinary least squares method by 28.45% reduction of RMSE. These findings propose that the instruments using light scattering method light scattering method can be used to measure and control the $PM_{10}$ concentrations of the underground subway stations.

• Corrosion Science and Technology
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.61-71
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• 2019

Flow-Accelerated Corrosion (FAC) is a phenomenon in which a protective coating on a metal surface is dissolved by a flow of fluid in a metal pipe, leading to continuous wall-thinning. Recently, many countries have developed computer codes to manage FAC in power plants, and the FAC prediction model in these computer codes plays an important role in predictive performance. Herein, the FAC prediction model was developed by applying a machine learning method and the conventional nonlinear regression method. The random forest, a widely used machine learning technique in predictive modeling led to easy calculation of FAC tendency for five input variables: flow rate, temperature, pH, Cr content, and dissolved oxygen concentration. However, the model showed significant errors in some input conditions, and it was difficult to obtain proper regression results without using additional data points. In contrast, nonlinear regression analysis predicted robust estimation even with relatively insufficient data by assuming an empirical equation and the model showed better predictive power when the interaction between DO and pH was considered. The comparative analysis of this study is believed to provide important insights for developing a more sophisticated FAC prediction model.

• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제65권2호
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• pp.108-113
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• 2016

The real-world problems usually show nonlinear and multi-variate characteristics, so it is difficult to establish concrete mathematical models for them. Thus, it is common to practice data-driven modeling techniques in these cases. Among them, most widely adopted techniques are regression model and intelligent model such as neural networks. Regression model has drawback showing lower performance when much non-linearity exists between input and output data. Intelligent model has been shown its superiority to the linear model due to ability capable of effectively estimate desired output in cases of both linear and nonlinear problem. This paper proposes modeling method of daily photovoltaic power systems using ELM(Extreme Learning Machine) based modular networks. The proposed method uses sub-model by fuzzy clustering rather than using a single model. Each sub-model is implemented by ELM. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method, we performed various experiments by dataset acquired during 2014 in real-plant.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권7호
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• pp.1154-1159
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• 2018

Precise prediction of the radiation interaction position in scintillators plays an important role in medical and industrial imaging systems. In this research, the incident position of the gamma rays was predicted precisely in a plastic rod scintillator by using attenuation technique and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, for the first time. Also, this procedure was performed using nonlinear regression (NLR) method. The experimental setup is comprised of a plastic rod scintillator (BC400) coupled with two PMTs at two sides, a $^{60}Co$ gamma source and two counters that record count rates. Using two proposed techniques (ANN and NLR), the radiation interaction position was predicted in a plastic rod scintillator with a mean relative error percentage less than 4.6% and 14.6%, respectively. The mean absolute error was measured less than 2.5 and 5.5. The correlation coefficient was calculated 0.998 and 0.984, respectively. Also, the ANN technique was confirmed by leave-one-out (LOO) method with 1% error. These results presented the superiority of the ANN method in comparison with NLR and the other methods. The technique and set up used are simpler and faster than other the previous position sensitive detectors. Thus, the time, cost and shielding and electronics requirements are minimized and optimized.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.755-763
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• 2008

This paper approaches the problem of option pricing in an incomplete market, where the underlying asset price process follows a compound Poisson model. We assume that the price process follows a compound Poisson model under an equivalent martingale measure and it converges weakly to the Black-Scholes model. First, we express the option price as the expectation of the discounted payoff and expand it at the Black-Scholes price to obtain a pricing formula with three unknown parameters. Then we estimate those parameters using the market option data. This method can use the option data on the same stock with different expiration dates and different strike prices.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.139-151
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• 2002

본 논문에서는 베이지안 기법을 이용한 비선형회귀모형의 선택법을 제안하였다. 베이즈요인에 기초한 이 방법은 주로 대표본의 경우에 이용되는 고전적 모형선택법에 비해 사전정보를 이용하는 측면과 비내포모형 및 소표본의 경우에 대해서도 효과적으로 사용될 수 있다는 장점을 가진다. 본 논문에서는 정보적 사전분포를 고려하였으며, 베이즈요인의 추정 방법으로 Laplace - Metropolis 추정 법을 제안하였다. 또한 MCMC 과정을 통해 추정된 모수의 수렴진단에 대해서도 고려하였다. 실제자료에 대한 최적의 모형선택 및 진단과정을 구체적으로 제시하였다.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.216-222
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• 2002

시계열자료가 가진 자기상관은 추정된 상관관계를 왜곡시키는 요인들 중의 하나로 작용한다. 회귀모형의 잔차항에 자기상관이 있는 지를 검정하기 위해 Durbin-Watson 통계량이 흔히 쓰인다. 잔차항에 자기상관을 가진 회귀모형의 효율성을 향상시키기 위해 yule-Walker 법, 비선형최소제곱법, 최우추정법 및 사전백색화법이 사용되어 왔다. 본 연구는 자기상관으로 인한 상관관계의 왜곡을 방지하기 위한 이들 방법들에 대해 고찰하였다. 사전백색화법을 제외한 앞의 3가지 방법을 20년간의 실제 시계열 자료에 적용하였으며 몬테카를로법을 이용하여 각 방법의 오차변이를 조사하였다. 각 방법의 평균잔차제곱분포의 경우, 최우추정법으로 추정된 평균잔차제곱이 가장 작았으며 분포 범위도 가장 작았으나 각 추정방법 사이에 유의한 차이가 발견되지는 않았다.

• 전력전자학회논문지
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.468-480
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• 2005

서보 시스템의 전체 제어 성능은 기계적 상수의 변화와 부하 토크의 영향을 크게 받는다. 그러므로 서보 시스템의 성능을 향상시키기 위해서는 기계적 상수와 부하 토크를 정확히 알 필요가 있다. 본 논문에서는 Support Vector Regression(SVR)을 이용한 기계적 상수와 부하 토크 추정 알고리즘을 제안한다. 실험 결과는 제안된 SVR 알고리즘이 서보 시스템의 기계적 상수와 부하 토크를 정확하게 추정하고 있음을 보여준다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제29권7호
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• pp.1361-1371
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• 2016

분위수 회귀모형은 설명변수가 반응변수의 조건부 분위수 함수에 어떻게 관계되는지 탐색함으로서 많은 유용한 정보를 제공한다. 그러나 설명변수와 반응변수가 비선형 관계를 갖는다면 선형형태를 가정하는 전통적인 분위수 회귀모형은 적합하지 않다. 또한 고차원 자료 또는 설명변수간 상관관계가 높은 자료에 대해서 변수선택의 방법이 필요하다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 벌점화 분위수 회귀나무모형을 제안하였다. 한편 제안한 방법의 분할규칙은 과도한 계산시간과 분할변수 선택편향 문제를 극복한 잔차 분석을 기반으로 하였다. 본 연구에서는 모의실험과 실증 예제를 통해 제안한 방법의 우수한 성능과 유용성을 확인하였다.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.111-117
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• 1991

An empirical model for diesel engine control was obtained using a system identification method. A pseudo-random binary sequence was used as an input signal. Spectral anaylsis was used to find the frequency response of system. Model parameters of transfer functions were obtained using nonlinear regression.