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The Historical Transition and Current Meaning of Traditional Language Plays - Focusing on Korean Jaedam and Chinese Xiangsheng - (전통적 언어유희의 역사적 변천과 현재적 의의 - 한국 재담(才談)과 중국 상성(相聲)을 중심으로 -)

  • Jiang, Xiao-Qian
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.37
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    • pp.61-94
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    • 2018
  • This article examined that the historical changes and current significance of the Jaedam(재담) and the Xiangsheng(相聲), one of the traditional Korean and Chinese language games. Both Korean Jaedam and Chinese Xiangsheng are representative language games and traditional performing arts for laughing. The origin of the Jaedam can be traced back to Uheui(우희). Uheui has been called Changyouxi in China, Bae Woo-hee, and Jo Hee in Korea. Uheui is the most traditional language game and a variety of performances were derived from its spreading and inheriting process. Among them, Korean Jaedam and Chinese Xiangsheng can be said to be a piece of art that has successfully inherited Uheui tradition. From the late 18th century, Korean Jaedam were established as independent performance arts, and became highly active in many performance by professional joker Park Chun-jae and other performers. With the development of gramophone record in the early 20th century, the Jaedam was mainly made on the theater stage and radio. At this time, the new performance art of 'Mandam(만담)' was derived from the Jaedam, which focused more on satire current events and criticizing the social situation. Mandam has been popular for a long time and then extinct in the 21st century. The jaedam have been handed down only in the Korean traditional performance so far. Meanwhile, Chinese Xiangsheng, which was built in the mid-19th century, a bit later than Korean Jaedam, was initially considered to be a vulgar art of the lower class, but finally became popular in the early 20th century. In the mid-20th century, Xiangsheng was transformed into a new character, which mainly deals with social praise and edification of the masses. But since 'New Xiangsheng' does not focous on a satire on social conditions, the humor has been reduced. In the early 21st century, Xiangsheng was on the verge of extinction just like Mandam, but through the efforts of young actors to revive tradition, another reformation of this art was made to return to tradition and small theater. Currently, the 'traditional Xiangsheng', which has returned to tradition, is once again receiving the love and support of the Chinese audience. Korean Jaedam and Chinese Xiangsheng have many similarities in terms of history and recruitment, but they are now in different fates. There is also a great deal in common ground in terms of the content and form of the two arts. In the case of Xiangsheng, it is one of the traditional folk art forms which is still loved by the Chinese people and has become one of the most important traditional performances. On the other hand, in Korea, Jaedam as independent performance arts has disappeared and now only can be seen in traditional performances such as 'Korean mask theater'. The fact that Korean Jaedam and Chinese Xiangsheng have undergone similar changes in their spreading and inheriting process, while Korean Jaedam have disappeared and Chinese Xiangsheng is well preserved. The reason can be confirmed through the main idea of this article.

An Exploratory Study on the Competition Patterns Between Internet Sites in Korea (한국 인터넷사이트들의 산업별 경쟁유형에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Park, Yoonseo;Kim, Yongsik
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.79-111
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    • 2011
  • Digital economy has grown rapidly so that the new business area called 'Internet business' has been dramatically extended as time goes on. However, in the case of Internet business, market shares of individual companies seem to fluctuate very extremely. Thus marketing managers who operate the Internet sites have seriously observed the competition structure of the Internet business market and carefully analyzed the competitors' behavior in order to achieve their own business goals in the market. The newly created Internet business might differ from the offline ones in management styles, because it has totally different business circumstances when compared with the existing offline businesses. Thus, there should be a lot of researches for finding the solutions about what the features of Internet business are and how the management style of those Internet business companies should be changed. Most marketing literatures related to the Internet business have focused on individual business markets. Specifically, many researchers have studied the Internet portal sites and the Internet shopping mall sites, which are the most general forms of Internet business. On the other hand, this study focuses on the entire Internet business industry to understand the competitive circumstance of online market. This approach makes it possible not only to have a broader view to comprehend overall e-business industry, but also to understand the differences in competition structures among Internet business markets. We used time-series data of Internet connection rates by consumers as the basic data to figure out the competition patterns in the Internet business markets. Specifically, the data for this research was obtained from one of Internet ranking sites, 'Fian'. The Internet business ranking data is obtained based on web surfing record of some pre-selected sample group where the possibility of double-count for page-views is controlled by method of same IP check. The ranking site offers several data which are very useful for comparison and analysis of competitive sites. The Fian site divides the Internet business areas into 34 area and offers market shares of big 5 sites which are on high rank in each category daily. We collected the daily market share data about Internet sites on each area from April 22, 2008 to August 5, 2008, where some errors of data was found and 30 business area data were finally used for our research after the data purification. This study performed several empirical analyses in focusing on market shares of each site to understand the competition among sites in Internet business of Korea. We tried to perform more statistically precise analysis for looking into business fields with similar competitive structures by applying the cluster analysis to the data. The research results are as follows. First, the leading sites in each area were classified into three groups based on averages and standard deviations of daily market shares. The first group includes the sites with the lowest market shares, which give more increased convenience to consumers by offering the Internet sites as complimentary services for existing offline services. The second group includes sites with medium level of market shares, where the site users are limited to specific small group. The third group includes sites with the highest market shares, which usually require online registration in advance and have difficulty in switching to another site. Second, we analyzed the second place sites in each business area because it may help us understand the competitive power of the strongest competitor against the leading site. The second place sites in each business area were classified into four groups based on averages and standard deviations of daily market shares. The four groups are the sites showing consistent inferiority compared to the leading sites, the sites with relatively high volatility and medium level of shares, the sites with relatively low volatility and medium level of shares, the sites with relatively low volatility and high level of shares whose gaps are not big compared to the leading sites. Except 'web agency' area, these second place sites show relatively stable shares below 0.1 point of standard deviation. Third, we also classified the types of relative strength between leading sites and the second place sites by applying the cluster analysis to the gap values of market shares between two sites. They were also classified into four groups, the sites with the relatively lowest gaps even though the values of standard deviation are various, the sites with under the average level of gaps, the sites with over the average level of gaps, the sites with the relatively higher gaps and lower volatility. Then we also found that while the areas with relatively bigger gap values usually have smaller standard deviation values, the areas with very small differences between the first and the second sites have a wider range of standard deviation values. The practical and theoretical implications of this study are as follows. First, the result of this study might provide the current market participants with the useful information to understand the competitive circumstance of the market and build the effective new business strategy for the market success. Also it might be useful to help new potential companies find a new business area and set up successful competitive strategies. Second, it might help Internet marketing researchers take a macro view of the overall Internet market so that make possible to begin the new studies on overall Internet market beyond individual Internet market studies.

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A study of the Medical System in the Early Chosun-Dynasty (조선시대(朝鮮時代) 전기(前期)의 의료제도(醫療制度)에 대한 연구(硏究))

  • Han, Dae-Hee;Kang, Hyo-Shin
    • Journal of Korean Medical classics
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    • v.9
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    • pp.555-652
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    • 1996
  • Up to the present the scholastic achievements in the history of the medical system have been rather scare despite its importance in the Korean History. Hence, this dissertation attempts to examine the significance of the institute in the Korean History, covering the period from the ancient times through the early Chosun-Dynasty. In the ancient times, the medical practice relied primarily upon human instincts and experiences at the same time, shaman's incantations were widely believed to cure diseases, the workings of evil spirits supposedly. For the period from the Old Chosun through Samhan(巫堂), Chinese refugees brought a long medical knowledge and skills of the continent. New Chinese medicine, traditional practices and incantations were generally used at this time. Medicine and the medical system were arranged by the period of the Three Countries(三國時代). No definite record concerning Koguryo remains now. As for Paekje, however, history shows that they set up the system under the Chinese influence, assigning medical posts such as Euibaksa(medical doctor), Chaeyaksa(pharmacist), and Jukeumsa(medicine man) within Yakbu(department of medicine). Scientifically advanced, they sent experts to Japan, giving a tremendous influence on the development of the science on ancient Japan. After the unification of the three countries, Shilla had their own system after the model of Dang(唐). This system of the Unified Shilla was continued down to Koryo and became the backbone of the future ones. In the ancient time religion and medicine were closely related. The curative function of the shaman was absolute. Buddhism played a notable part in medical practice, too, producing numerous medical monks. The medical system of Koryo followed the model of Dang with some borrowings from Song(宋). Sangyakkuk(尙藥局) was to deal exclusively with the diseases of the monarch whereas Taeeuigam(太醫監) was the central office to handle the national medical administration and the qualification test and education for doctors. In addition, Dongsodaebiwon(東西大悲院), Jewibo(濟危寶), and Hyeminkuk(惠民局) were public hospitals for the people, and a few aristocrats practiced medicine privately. In 987, the 6th year of Songjong(成宗), local medical operations were installed for curing the sick and educating medical students. Later Hyonjong(顯宗), established Yakjom(clinics, 藥店) throughout the country and officials were sent there to see patients. Foreign experts, mainly from Song, were invited frequently to deliver their advanced technology, and contributed to the great progress of the science in Korea. Medical officials were equipped with better land and salary than others, enjoying appropriate social respect. Koryo exchanged doctors, medicine and books mainly with Song, but also had substantial interrelations with Yuan(元), Ming(明), Kitan(契丹), Yojin(女眞), and Japan. Among them, however, Song was most influential to the development of medicine in Koryo. During Koryo Dynasty Buddhism, the national religion at the time, exercised bigger effect on medicine than in any other period. By conducting national ceremonies and public rituals to cure diseases, Taoism also affected the way people regarded illness. Curative shamanism was still in practice as well. These religious practices, however, were now engaged only when medication was already in use or when medicine could not held not help any more. The advanced medical system of Koryo were handed down to Chosun and served the basis for further progress. Hence, then played well the role to connect the ancient medicine and the modern one. The early Chosun followed and systemized the scientific and technical achievement in medicine during the Koryo Dynasty, and furthermore, founded the basis of the future developments. Especially the 70 years approximately from the reign of Sejong(世宗) to that of Songjong(成宗) withnessed a termendous progress in the field with the reestablishment of the medical system. The functions of the three medical institute Naeeuiwon(內醫院), Joneuigam(典醫監), Hyeminkuk(惠民局) were expanded. The second, particualy, not only systemized all the medical practices of the whole nation, but also grew and distributed domestic medicaments which had been continually developed since the late Koryo period. In addition, Hyeminso(惠民局, Hwarinwon(活人院)) and Jesaenwon(濟生院)(later merged to the first) played certain parts in the curing illness. Despite the active medical education in the capital and the country, the results were not substantial, for the aristocracy avoided the profession due to the social prejudice against technicians including medical docotors. During the early Chosun-Dynasty, the science was divided into Chimgueui (acupuncturist), Naryogeui(specialist in scrofula) and Chijongeui (specialist in boil). For the textbooks, those for the qualification exam were used, including several written by the natives. With the introduction on Neoconfucianism(性理學) which reinforced sexual segregation, female doctors appeared for the female patients who refused to be seen by male doctors. This system first appeared in 1406, the sixth year of Taejong(太宗), but finally set up during the reign of Sejong. As slaves to the offices, the lowest class, female doctors drew no respect. However, this is still significant in the aspect of women's participation in society. They were precedents of midwives. Medical officials were selected through the civil exam and a special test. Those who passed exams were given temporary jobs and took permanent posts later. At that time the test score, the work experience and the performance record of the prospective doctor were all taken into consideration, for it was a specialized office. Most doctors were given posts that changed every six months, and therefore had fewer chances for a goverment office than the aristocracy. At the beginning the social status of those in medicine was not that low, but with the prejudice gradully rising among the aristocracy, it became generally agreed to belong to the upper-middle technician class. Dealing with life, however, they received social respect and courtesy from the public. Sometimes they collected wealth with their skills. They kept improving techniques and finally came to take an important share in modernization process during the late Chosun-Dynasty.

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Analysis of Metadata Standards of Record Management for Metadata Interoperability From the viewpoint of the Task model and 5W1H (메타데이터 상호운용성을 위한 기록관리 메타데이터 표준 분석 5W1H와 태스크 모델의 관점에서)

  • Baek, Jae-Eun;Sugimoto, Shigeo
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.32
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    • pp.127-176
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    • 2012
  • Metadata is well recognized as one of the foundational factors in archiving and long-term preservation of digital resources. There are several metadata standards for records management, archives and preservation, e.g. ISAD(G), EAD, AGRkMs, PREMIS, and OAIS. Consideration is important in selecting appropriate metadata standards in order to design metadata schema that meet the requirements of a particular archival system. Interoperability of metadata with other systems should be considered in schema design. In our previous research, we have presented a feature analysis of metadata standards by identifying the primary resource lifecycle stages where each standard is applied. We have clarified that any single metadata standard cannot cover the whole records lifecycle for archiving and preservation. Through this feature analysis, we analyzed the features of metadata in the whole records lifecycle, and we clarified the relationships between the metadata standards and the stages of the lifecycle. In the previous study, more detailed analysis was left for future study. This paper proposes to analyze the metadata schemas from the viewpoint of tasks performed in the lifecycle. Metadata schemas are primarily defined to describe properties of a resource in accordance with the purposes of description, e.g. finding aids, records management, preservation and so forth. In other words, the metadata standards are resource- and purpose-centric, and the resource lifecycle is not explicitly reflected in the standards. There are no systematic methods for mapping between different metadata standards in accordance with the lifecycle. This paper proposes a method for mapping between metadata standards based on the tasks contained in the resource lifecycle. We first propose a Task Model to clarify tasks applied to resources in each stage of the lifecycle. This model is created as a task-centric model to identify features of metadata standards and to create mappings among elements of those standards. It is important to categorize the elements in order to limit the semantic scope of mapping among elements and decrease the number of combinations of elements for mapping. This paper proposes to use 5W1H (Who, What, Why, When, Where, How) model to categorize the elements. 5W1H categories are generally used for describing events, e.g. news articles. As performing a task on a resource causes an event and metadata elements are used in the event, we consider that the 5W1H categories are adequate to categorize the elements. By using these categories, we determine the features of every element of metadata standards which are AGLS, AGRkMS, PREMIS, EAD, OAIS and an attribute set extracted from DPC decision flow. Then, we perform the element mapping between the standards, and find the relationships between the standards. In this study, we defined a set of terms for each of 5W1H categories, which typically appear in the definition of an element, and used those terms to categorize the elements. For example, if the definition of an element includes the terms such as person and organization that mean a subject which contribute to create, modify a resource the element is categorized into the Who category. A single element can be categorized into one or more 5W1H categories. Thus, we categorized every element of the metadata standards using the 5W1H model, and then, we carried out mapping among the elements in each category. We conclude that the Task Model provides a new viewpoint for metadata schemas and is useful to help us understand the features of metadata standards for records management and archives. The 5W1H model, which is defined based on the Task Model, provides us a core set of categories to semantically classify metadata elements from the viewpoint of an event caused by a task.

Long-term Results of Thoracoscopic T2 Sympathicotomy for Craniofacial Hyperhidrosis in Woman (여성의 안면 다한증에 대한 제2흉부 교감신경 차단술 후 장기결과)

  • 조덕곤;조민섭;박찬범;왕영필;이선희;조규도
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.591-596
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    • 2004
  • Recently, thoracic sympathicotomy for craniofacial hyperhidrosis (FH) is increasingly avoided contrast to palmar hyperhidrosis. We recently demonstrated that selective T2 sympathicotomy for FH in woman might be recommended because of differences of the postoperative satisfaction between man and woman. Therefore, this study was designed to analyze the postoperative long term results, evaluate the effectiveness of T2 sympathicotomy and establish the new strategy in treatment of FH in woman. Material and Method: From May 1998 to July 2001, 27 cases of FH in woman that were performed T2 sympathicotomy and minimum 2 years have passed since then at the follow up period. Among them, 20 cases were evaluated by telephone review and medical record. Bilateral sympathetic trunks were severed on the 2nd rib with 2mm thoracoscopic instruments. 7 patients combined with gustatory sweating (GS). Ages ranged from 25 to 62 (mean age, 46.4 years). Result: All patients were relieved of symptom immediately after operation. At postoperative 1 week, all patients were satisfied: 15 patients, “very satisfaction” and 5 patients, “relatively satisfaction”. However, during long term follow up period (from 25 to 63 months postoperatively), 9 patients (45%) were relatively satisfied, 8 patients (40%) complained that there was no difference of postoperative satisfaction and 3 patients (15%) complained of non satisfactory results (regret for surgery). 16 patients (80%) had complaint of uncomfortable feeling because of postoperative GS. Some degree of compensatory sweating (CS) had occurred in all patients: severe 10 patients (50%), severe but acceptable 6 patients (30%), and just conventional 4 patients (20%). The sites of CS were trunk, back, axilla and extremities. Conclusion: Thoracoscopic T2 sympathicotomy is relatively considerable method for FH in woman and the postoperative satisfaction depends on GS and the degree of individual adaptation for CS. Therefore, it is required that the prediction of preoperative risk factors for GS and CS and then careful selection of patients to increase the postoperative satisfaction, and the development of acceptable new treatment modalities.

Sixty Years History of the Korean Geographical Society as a Numerical Record (숫자로 본 대한지리학회 60년)

  • Hyong, Kie-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40 no.6 s.111
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    • pp.748-761
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    • 2005
  • This study attempts to describe and periodinate the sixty years history of Korean Geographical Society. For the purpose, several numerical records concerned with the society were employed. The Korean Geographical Society was established in 1945 as a first academic society in geography. The international participation of Korean geographers started when it applied for the IGU membership in 1959. Next year, Korean's application was approved at the 19th IGC in Stockholm. The 40 years later, Korea came to host the 29th IGC in Seoul. This means that the activity of Korean geographers has been vigorous during the 40 years in accordance with high growth of Korean economy. The number of the society member reached 116 in the latter part of 1960s. It grew steadily from 1970s to 1990s and now amounts to around one thousand. It is believed that such trend is associated with the increase of geographical department and the development of graduate programs during past 40 years in Korea. The number of the advanced degree holders was only 2 in 1960, and now reachs 338 among which 166($43\%$) obtained from the foreign country. The Int issue of the society journal 'Geagraphy' -the title was changed to 'Journal of the KGS' in 1993-was published in 1963. It has gradually developed into the annual for $1966{\~}1973$, the semi-annual for $1974{\~}1990$, the quaterly for $1991{\~}1997$, and the hi-monthly until 2005. One issue per year has been published in English since 1993. The annual number of papers accepted by the editorial board has increased from 7 in 1960s-1970s to 52 in the new millennium. In terms of the specialty distribution of total 725 papers after 1963, many Korean geographers have been preferable to the field of socio-economic and urban geography as their major, and next histro-cultural and physical geography. Recently, a growing number of younger geographers are more interested in such diversified fields as ecological geography, socio-historical geography, applied geography concerned with GIS technic, geography education and so on. Such trend is a reflection of the new era which is characterized by diversity, software, high technology, globalization and others. The sixty years history of the society nay be summarized into the five phases of periodization: (1) establishment and chaos($1945{\~}1959$), (2) reconstruction(1960${\~}$1969), (3)reorganization(1970${\~}$1989), (4) jump and rush($1990{\~}1999$), (5)globalization($2000{\~}\;$).

Breeding of New Silkworm Variety Golden silk, a Yellow Cocoon Color for Spring Rearing Season (황색실크 생산용 특수누에 품종 '골든실크' 육성)

  • Kang, Pil-Don;Lee, Sang-Uk;Jung, I-Yeon;Shon, Bong-Hee;Kim, Young-Soon;Kim, Kee-Young;Kim, Mi-Ja;Hong, In-Pyo;Lee, Kwang-Gill;Park, Kwang-Young
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.14-17
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    • 2007
  • A new silkworm variety Golden silk for spring rearing season is $F_1$ hybrid between Jam311, a Japanese race bred from introduction breeding and Jam312, a Chinese race from introduction breeding. In the local adaptability test performed at 8 local areas in spring of 2006, "Golden silk" was showed 7 percent higher in hatchability than authorized silk-worm races laval. "Golden silk" was receded higher 1.7 percent, 2.2 percent in pupation rate, best cocoon rate respectively than Chunsujam. The larval period shortened for 1.12 day even though low record to the several items including productivity than Chunsujam. "Golden silk" was showed 1,031 m, 2.97 denier in length of cocoon filament, weight of cocoon filament respectively. The concentration of Deoxynojirimycin(DNJ) was measured 4.34 mg in "Golden silk", high then to "Chunsujam"(3.81 mg). In the Paecilomyces tenuipes production ability test, the pupal weight of "Golden silk" was 1.20g.

The Fieldwork of Sinawi and the Establishment of Musical Theory in the Late 20th Century (20세기 후반기 시나위의 현장 조사와 음악이론의 성립)

  • Choi, Sun-A
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.34
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    • pp.355-382
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    • 2017
  • In this study, pieces of statements of sinawi successors, which served the ground of sinawi theory of Lee(that are found only in reports and theses) were searched from notebooks or cassette tapes of Lee. Then, this study tried to trace the process that the theory of sinawi was established based on the fieldwork of sinawi and relevant data, and to shed light on the significance. With the understanding from the early days that life of minsokak can be found in musical scenes in the region, Lee wandered around the scenes of minsokak(folk music) in the nation, recorded minsokak, and collected dialogues with successors of minsokak with about 2,000 cassette tapes and 300 notebooks. Especially, in the fieldwork data on sinawi that Lee possesses contain dialogues with the newly found sinawi successors that Lee found in the scene of sinawi in Gyeonggido province, Jeollado province, and Gyeongsangdo province over numerous visits for over 20 years from the early 1970s. Sometimes the record includes improvised sinawi performance. As the fieldwork of sinawi by Lee was conducted comparatively early, there are a lot of testimonies of successors who remember the sinawi scene of the past. Using these data, Lee published theories related to sinawi on reports and theses. His representative thesis is about 'Sinawi Chung'(1979). After listening to the testimony of Younghee Ji, the master of Gyeonggi haegeum sinawi in his first fieldwork of sinawi, he started his research on sinawi chung of piri, daegeum, and haegeum in Gyeonggido province and Honam area. Based on the testimonies on sinawi chung of 11 sinawi successors, Lee published 'Sinawi Chung'. In 1987, he extended the scope his research to sinawi-kwon(圈), which includes Gyeongnam area, found 12 new sinawi successors in Gyeonggi, Honam, and Gyeongnam areas, and based on their testimonies, complemented the theory of sinawi chung and published it. Fortunately, most of the dialogues with sinawi successors quoted in his reports or theses are recorded in his notebooks or cassette tapes. When these data are released, it is expected that a new theory of sinawi or minsokak will be born.

Southeast Asia and ASEAN in 2016: Disappointing Records and Increasing Uncertainty (동남아와 아세안 2016: 기대와 혼돈 속에 커져가는 불확실성)

  • SHIN, Yoon Hwan
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.95-129
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    • 2017
  • This study surveys and reviews political change, economic performance, and regional cooperation that were carried out in 2016 by Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN. This paper reports that what has followed the inauguration of new governments in Myanmar, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos fails to live up to the expectation and optimism that arose in the aftermath of elections and party congresses that took place in the first half of the year. In other countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, where authoritarian regimes are faced with strong oppositions, the prospects for democratic change worsened to a substantial degree, as schisms and internal strives complicated the opposition camp as a result of instigation and intervention by the authoritarian leaders and their followers. In stable political systems, both democratic and authoritarian, no significant changes that may entail serious political implications were noticed. In 2016, the national economy of almost each and every country continued its slow but steady recovery that had started in 2014 and grew by 5% on the average. For 2017 onward, however, the earlier optimism that it would grow at least as fast dimmed down as uncertainty about the world economy looms larger due to the unexpected win by Donald Trump as U.S. president and the expected 'hard landing' of the Chinese economy around 2018. ASEAN declared the launch of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) only one day before the New Year, but its track record looked already bad and unpromising by the end of 2016. ASEAN leaders were tied up by their domestic politics and affairs too tightly to take time off to work seriously to observe the schedule as laid out in the AEC Blueprint 2025. Korea's relationship with Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN was "as good as it gets" in 2016 as ever but could become subject to tough review in the near future, if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is found out to have been implicated in the ongoing Choi Sun Sil scandal and if the opposition wins the next presidential election to be held by this year.

Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.