• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.311-323
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• 2023

In order to reduce disaster damage by localized heavy rains, floods, and urban inundation, it is important to know in advance whether natural disasters occur. Currently, heavy rain watch and heavy rain warning by the criteria of the Korea Meteorological Administration are being issued in Korea. However, since this one criterion is applied to the whole country, we can not clearly recognize heavy rain damage for a specific region in advance. Therefore, in this paper, we tried to reset the current criteria for a special weather report which considers the regional characteristics and to predict the damage caused by rainfall after 1 hour. The study area was selected as Gyeonggi-province, where has more frequent heavy rain damage than other regions. Then, the rainfall inducing disaster or hazard-triggering rainfall was set by utilizing hourly rainfall and heavy rain damage data, considering the local characteristics. The heavy rain damage prediction model was developed by a decision tree model and a random forest model, which are machine learning technique and by rainfall inducing disaster and rainfall data. In addition, long short-term memory and deep neural network models were used for predicting rainfall after 1 hour. The predicted rainfall by a developed prediction model was applied to the trained classification model and we predicted whether the rain damage after 1 hour will be occurred or not and we called this as 1ST-Model. The 1ST-Model can be used for preventing and preparing heavy rain disaster and it is judged to be of great contribution in reducing damage caused by heavy rain.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.101-116
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• 2015

Recently, due to the development of smart devices and social media, vast amounts of information with the various forms were accumulated. Particularly, considerable research efforts are being directed towards analyzing unstructured big data to resolve various social problems. Accordingly, focus of data-driven decision-making is being moved from structured data analysis to unstructured one. Also, in the field of recommendation system, which is the typical area of data-driven decision-making, the need of using unstructured data has been steadily increased to improve system performance. Approaches to improve the performance of recommendation systems can be found in two aspects- improving algorithms and acquiring useful data with high quality. Traditionally, most efforts to improve the performance of recommendation system were made by the former approach, while the latter approach has not attracted much attention relatively. In this sense, efforts to utilize unstructured data from variable sources are very timely and necessary. Particularly, as the interests of users are directly connected with their needs, identifying the interests of the user through unstructured big data analysis can be a crew for improving performance of recommendation systems. In this sense, this study proposes the methodology of improving recommendation system by measuring interests of the user. Specially, this study proposes the method to quantify interests of the user by analyzing user's internet usage patterns, and to predict user's repurchase based upon the discovered preferences. There are two important modules in this study. The first module predicts repurchase probability of each category through analyzing users' purchase history. We include the first module to our research scope for comparing the accuracy of traditional purchase-based prediction model to our new model presented in the second module. This procedure extracts purchase history of users. The core part of our methodology is in the second module. This module extracts users' interests by analyzing news articles the users have read. The second module constructs a correspondence matrix between topics and news articles by performing topic modeling on real world news articles. And then, the module analyzes users' news access patterns and then constructs a correspondence matrix between articles and users. After that, by merging the results of the previous processes in the second module, we can obtain a correspondence matrix between users and topics. This matrix describes users' interests in a structured manner. Finally, by using the matrix, the second module builds a model for predicting repurchase probability of each category. In this paper, we also provide experimental results of our performance evaluation. The outline of data used our experiments is as follows. We acquired web transaction data of 5,000 panels from a company that is specialized to analyzing ranks of internet sites. At first we extracted 15,000 URLs of news articles published from July 2012 to June 2013 from the original data and we crawled main contents of the news articles. After that we selected 2,615 users who have read at least one of the extracted news articles. Among the 2,615 users, we discovered that the number of target users who purchase at least one items from our target shopping mall 'G' is 359. In the experiments, we analyzed purchase history and news access records of the 359 internet users. From the performance evaluation, we found that our prediction model using both users' interests and purchase history outperforms a prediction model using only users' purchase history from a view point of misclassification ratio. In detail, our model outperformed the traditional one in appliance, beauty, computer, culture, digital, fashion, and sports categories when artificial neural network based models were used. Similarly, our model outperformed the traditional one in beauty, computer, digital, fashion, food, and furniture categories when decision tree based models were used although the improvement is very small.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.151-164
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• 2024

In water treatment plants supplying potable water, the management of chlorine concentration in water treatment processes involving pre-chlorination or intermediate chlorination requires process control. To address this, research has been conducted on water quality prediction techniques utilizing AI technology. This study developed an AI-based predictive model for automating the process control of chlorine disinfection, targeting the prediction of residual chlorine concentration downstream of sedimentation basins in water treatment processes. The AI-based model, which learns from past water quality observation data to predict future water quality, offers a simpler and more efficient approach compared to complex physicochemical and biological water quality models. The model was tested by predicting the residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basins at Plant, using multiple regression models and AI-based models like Random Forest and LSTM, and the results were compared. For optimal prediction of residual chlorine concentration, the input-output structure of the AI model included the residual chlorine concentration upstream of the sedimentation basin, turbidity, pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity, inflow of raw water, alkalinity, NH₃, etc. as independent variables, and the desired residual chlorine concentration of the effluent from the sedimentation basin as the dependent variable. The independent variables were selected from observable data at the water treatment plant, which are influential on the residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basin. The analysis showed that, for Plant, the model based on Random Forest had the lowest error compared to multiple regression models, neural network models, model trees, and other Random Forest models. The optimal predicted residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basin presented in this study is expected to enable real-time control of chlorine dosing in previous treatment stages, thereby enhancing water treatment efficiency and reducing chemical costs.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.161-177
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• 2014

Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.213-225
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• 2010

Data mining has empowered the managers who are charge of the tasks in their company to present personalized and differentiated marketing programs to their customers with the rapid growth of information technology. Most studies on customer' response have focused on predicting whether they would respond or not for their marketing promotion as marketing managers have been eager to identify who would respond to their marketing promotion. So many studies utilizing data mining have tried to resolve the binary decision problems such as bankruptcy prediction, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card usages. The prediction of customer's response has been studied with similar methods mentioned above because the prediction of customer's response is a kind of dichotomous decision problem. In addition, a number of competitive data mining techniques such as neural networks, SVM(support vector machine), decision trees, logit, and genetic algorithms have been applied to the prediction of customer's response for marketing promotion. The marketing managers also have tried to classify their customers with quantitative measures such as recency, frequency, and monetary acquired from their transaction database. The measures mean that their customers came to purchase in recent or old days, how frequent in a period, and how much they spent once. Using segmented customers we proposed an approach that could enable to differentiate customers in the same rating among the segmented customers. Our approach employed support vector regression to forecast the purchase amount of customers for each customer rating. Our study used the sample that included 41,924 customers extracted from DMEF04 Data Set, who purchased at least once in the last two years. We classified customers from first rating to fifth rating based on the purchase amount after giving a marketing promotion. Here, we divided customers into first rating who has a large amount of purchase and fifth rating who are non-respondents for the promotion. Our proposed model forecasted the purchase amount of the customers in the same rating and the marketing managers could make a differentiated and personalized marketing program for each customer even though they were belong to the same rating. In addition, we proposed more efficient learning method by separating the learning samples. We employed two learning methods to compare the performance of proposed learning method with general learning method for SVRs. LMW (Learning Method using Whole data for purchasing customers) is a general learning method for forecasting the purchase amount of customers. And we proposed a method, LMS (Learning Method using Separated data for classification purchasing customers), that makes four different SVR models for each class of customers. To evaluate the performance of models, we calculated MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) for each model to predict the purchase amount of customers. In LMW, the overall performance was 0.670 MAPE and the best performance showed 0.327 MAPE. Generally, the performances of the proposed LMS model were analyzed as more superior compared to the performance of the LMW model. In LMS, we found that the best performance was 0.275 MAPE. The performance of LMS was higher than LMW in each class of customers. After comparing the performance of our proposed method LMS to LMW, our proposed model had more significant performance for forecasting the purchase amount of customers in each class. In addition, our approach will be useful for marketing managers when they need to customers for their promotion. Even if customers were belonging to same class, marketing managers could offer customers a differentiated and personalized marketing promotion.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.239-251
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• 2019

Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.303-308
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• 2020

The ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit) function has been dominantly used as a standard activation function in most deep artificial neural network models since it was proposed. Later, Leaky ReLU, Swish, and Mish activation functions were presented to replace ReLU, which showed improved performance over existing ReLU function in image classification task. Therefore, we recognized the need to experiment with whether performance improvements could be achieved by replacing the RELU with other activation functions in the super resolution task. In this paper, the performance was compared by changing the activation functions in EDSR model, which showed stable performance in the super resolution task. As a result, in experiments conducted with changing the activation function of EDSR, when the resolution was converted to double, the existing activation function, ReLU, showed similar or higher performance than the other activation functions used in the experiment. When the resolution was converted to four times, Leaky ReLU and Swish function showed slightly improved performance over ReLU. PSNR and SSIM, which can quantitatively evaluate the quality of images, were able to identify average performance improvements of 0.06%, 0.05% when using Leaky ReLU, and average performance improvements of 0.06% and 0.03% when using Swish. When the resolution is converted to eight times, the Mish function shows a slight average performance improvement over the ReLU. Using Mish, PSNR and SSIM were able to identify an average of 0.06% and 0.02% performance improvement over the RELU. In conclusion, Leaky ReLU and Swish showed improved performance compared to ReLU for super resolution that converts resolution four times and Mish showed improved performance compared to ReLU for super resolution that converts resolution eight times. In future study, we should conduct comparative experiments to replace activation functions with Leaky ReLU, Swish and Mish to improve performance in other super resolution models.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.33 no.5_2
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• pp.631-640
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• 2017

The estimation of rice yield affects the income of farmers as well as the fields related to agriculture. Moreover, it has an important effect on the government's policy making including the control of supply demand and the price estimation. Thus, it is necessary to build the crop yield estimation model and from the past, many studies utilizing empirical statistical models or artificial neural network algorithms have been conducted through climatic and satellite data. Presently, scientists have achieved successful results with deep learning algorithms in the field of pattern recognition, computer vision, speech recognition, etc. Among deep learning algorithms, the SSAE (Stacked Sparse AutoEncoder) algorithm has been confirmed to be applicable in the field of forecasting through time series data and in this study, SSAE was utilized to estimate the rice yield in South Korea. The climatic and satellite data were used as the input variables and different types of input data were constructed according to the period of rice growth in South Korea. As a result, the combination of the satellite data from May to September and the climatic data using the 16 day average value showed the best performance with showing average annual %RMSE (percent Root Mean Square Error) and region %RMSE of 7.43% and 7.16% that the applicability of the SSAE algorithm could be proved in the field of rice yield estimation.

• BMB Reports
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.100-105
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• 2020

While liver histopathology is heterogeneous in diabetes, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We investigated whether glycemic variation resulting from differential diets can induce heterogeneity in diabetic liver and the underlying molecular mechanisms. We generated end-stage non-obese diabetic model rats by subtotal-pancreatectomy in male Sprague-Dawley rats and ad libitum diet for 7 weeks (n = 33). The rats were then divided into three groups, and fed a standard- or a low-protein diet (18 or 6 kcal%, respectively), for another 7 weeks: to maintain hyperglycemia, 11 rats were fed ad libitum (18AL group); to achieve euglycemia, 11 were calorie-restricted (18R group), and 11 were both calorie- and protein-restricted with the low-protein diet (6R group). Overnight-fasted liver samples were collected after the differential diets together with sham-control (18S group), and histology and molecular changes were compared. Hyperglycemic-18AL showed glycogenic hepatopathy (GH) without steatosis, with the highest GSK-3β inactivation because of Akt activation during hyperglycemia; mitochondrial function was not impaired, compared to the 18S group. Euglycemic-18R showed neither GH nor steatosis, with intermediate GSK-3β activation and mitochondrial dysfunction. However, euglycemic-6R showed both GH and steatosis despite the highest GSK-3β activity and no molecular evidence of increased lipogenesis or decreased ApoB expression, where mitochondrial dysfunction was highest among the groups. In conclusion, heterogeneous liver histopathology developed in end-stage non-obese diabetic rats as the glycemic levels varied with differential diets, in which protein content in the diets as well as glycemic levels differentially influenced GSK-3β activity and mitochondrial function in insulin-deficient state.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.1141-1141
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• 2001

The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of 3 calibration methods, modified partial least squares (MPLS), local PLS (LOCAL) and artificial neural network (ANN) on the prediction of chemical composition of forages, using a large NIR database. The study used forage samples (n=25,977) from Australia, Europe (Belgium, Germany, Italy and Sweden) and North America (Canada and U.S.A) with information relative to moisture, crude protein and neutral detergent fibre content. The spectra of the samples were collected with 10 different Foss NIR Systems instruments, which were either standardized or not standardized to one master instrument. The spectra were trimmed to a wavelength range between 1100 and 2498 nm. Two data sets, one standardized (IVAL) and the other not standardized (SVAL) were used as independent validation sets, but 10% of both sets were omitted and kept for later expansion of the calibration database. The remaining samples were combined into one database (n=21,696), which was split into 75% calibration (CALBASE) and 25% validation (VALBASE). The chemical components in the 3 validation data sets were predicted with each model derived from CALBASE using the calibration database before and after it was expanded with 10% of the samples from IVAL and SVAL data sets. Calibration performance was evaluated using standard error of prediction corrected for bias (SEP(C)), bias, slope and R2. None of the models appeared to be consistently better across all validation sets. VALBASE was predicted well by all models, with smaller SEP(C) and bias values than for IVAL and SVAL. This was not surprising as VALBASE was selected from the calibration database and it had a sample population similar to CALBASE, whereas IVAL and SVAL were completely independent validation sets. In most cases, Local and ANN models, but not modified PLS, showed considerable improvement in the prediction of IVAL and SVAL after the calibration database had been expanded with the 10% samples of IVAL and SVAL reserved for calibration expansion. The effects of sample processing, instrument standardization and differences in reference procedure were partially confounded in the validation sets, so it was not possible to determine which factors were most important. Further work on the development of large databases must address the problems of standardization of instruments, harmonization and standardization of laboratory procedures and even more importantly, the definition of the database population.