• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.51-59
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• 1999

This study aims at the development of the techniques for the rainfall forecasting in river basins by applying neural network theory and compared with results of Multivariate Model (MVM). This study forecasts rainfall and compares with a observed values in the San Chung gauging stations of Nakdong river basin for the rainfall forecasting of river basin by proposed Neural Network Model(NNM). For it, a multi-layer Neural Network is constructed to forecast rainfall. The neural network learns continuous-valued input and output data. The result of rainfall forecasting by the Neural Network Model is superior to the results of Multivariate Model for rainfall forecasting in the river basin. So I think that the Neural Network Model is able to be much more reliable in the rainfall forecasting.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.669-673
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• 2008

In this study, the new methodology which combines Kohonen self-organizing map(KSOM) neural networks model and the conventional neural networks models such as feedforward neural networks model and generalized neural networks model is introduced to forecast flood stage in Nakdong river, Republic of Korea. It is possible to train without output data in KSOM neural networks model. KSOM neural networks model is used to classify the input data before it combines with the conventional neural networks model. Four types of models such as SOM-FFNNM-BP, SOM-GRNNM-GA, FFNNM-BP, and GRNNM-GA are used to train and test performances respectively. From the statistical analysis for training and testing performances, SOM-GRNNM-GA shows the best results compared with the other models such as SOM-FFNNM-BP, FFNNM-BP, and GRNNM-GA and FFNNM-BP shows vice-versa. From this study, we can suggest the new methodology to forecast flood stage and construct flood warning system in river basin.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국데이터정보과학회 2003년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.57-72
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• 2003

This article provides integrated neural network models for the interest rate forecasting using change-point detection. The model is composed of three phases. The first phase is to detect successive structural changes in interest rate dataset. The second phase is to forecast change-point group with data mining classifiers. The final phase is to forecast the interest rate with BPN. Based on this structure, we propose three integrated neural network models in terms of data mining classifier: (1) multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA)-supported neural network model, (2) case based reasoning (CBR)-supported neural network model and (3) backpropagation neural networks (BPN)-supported neural network model. Subsequently, we compare these models with a neural network model alone and, in addition, determine which of three classifiers (MDA, CBR and BPN) can perform better. For interest rate forecasting, this study then examines the predictability of integrated neural network models to represent the structural change.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2000년도 춘계정기학술대회 e-Business를 위한 지능형 정보기술 / 한국지능정보시스템학회
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• pp.235-241
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• 2000

This article suggests integrated neural network models for the interest rate forecasting using change point detection. The basic concept of proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change point, to identify them as change-point groups, and to involve them in interest rate forecasting. the proposed models consist of three stages. The first stage is to detect successive change points in interest rate dataset. The second stage is to forecast change-point group with data mining classifiers. The final stage is to forecast the desired output with BPN. Based on this structure, we propose three integrated neural network models in terms of data mining classifier: (1) multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA)-supported neural network model, (2) case based reasoning (CBR)-supported neural network model and (3) backpropagation neural networks (BPN)-supported neural network model. Subsequently, we compare these models with a neural networks (BPN)-supported neural network model. Subsequently, we compare these models with a neural network model alone and, in addition, determine which of three classifiers (MDA, CBR and BPN) can perform better. This article is then to examine the predictability of integrated neural network models for interest rate forecasting using change-point detection.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.303-316
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• 2001

본 연구에서는 중소하천수계에서 수문학적 예측을 위하여 Hybrid Neural Networks의 일종인 반경기초함수(RBF) 신경망모형이 적용되었다. RBF 신경망모형은 4종류의 매개변수로 구성되어 있으며, 지율 및 지도훈련과정으로 이루어져있다. 반경기초함수로서 가우스핵함수(GKF)가 이용되었으며, GKF의 매개변수인 중심과 폭은 K-Means 군집알고리즘에 의해 최적화 된다. 그리고 RBF 신경망모형의 매개변수인 중심, 폭, 연결강도와 편차벡터는 훈련을 통하여 최적 매개변수의 값이 결정되며, 이 매개변수들을 이용하여 모형의 검증과정이 이루어진다. RBF 신경망모형은 한국의 IHP 대표유역중 하나인 위천유역에 적용하였으며, 모형의 훈련과 검증을 위하여 10개의 강우사상을 선택하였다. 또한 RBF 신경망모형과 비교검토하기 위하여 엘만 신경망(ENN)모형을 이용하였으며, ENN 모형은 일단게 할선역전파(OSSBP) 및 탄성역전파(RBP)알고리즘으로 이루어져 있다. 모형의 훈련과 검증과정을 통하여 RBF 신경망모형이 ENN 모형보다 양호한 결과를 나타내는 것으로 분석되었다. RBF 신경망모형은 훈련시키는데 시간이 적게 들고, 이론적 배경이 부족한 수문학자들도 쉽게 사용할 수 있는 신경망모형이다.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.19-25
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• 2002

In this paper, the water quality forecast was performed on the BOD of the Chungju Dam using the ARIMA model, which is a nonlinear statistics model, and the artificial neural network model. The monthly data of water quality were collected from 1991 to 2000. The most appropriate ARIMA model for Chungju dam was found to be the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)$_{12}$, model. While the artificial neural network model, which is used relatively often in recent days, forecasts new data by the strength of a learned matrix like human neurons. The BOD values were forecasted using the back-propagation algorithm of multi-layer perceptrons in this paper. Artificial neural network model was com- posed of two hidden layers and the node number of each hidden layer was designed fifteen. It was demonstrated that the ARIMA model was more appropriate in terms of changes around the overall average, but the artificial neural net-work model was more appropriate in terms of reflecting the minimum and the maximum values.s.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제37권9호
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• pp.771-780
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• 2004

본 논문에서는 신경망 모형을 이용해서 개발된 홍수유출 예측 시스템의 적용성을 검토하였다. 홍수유출 예측을 위한 신경망 모형을 공주, 부여지점에 적용하였으며, 신경망 모형을 입력층, 은닉층, 출력층으로 구성하였다. 입력층에는 강우자료와 홍수량 자료를 출력층에는 홍수유출량이 예측되도록 구성하였다. 홍수유출 예측 시스템 구성시 예측모형 선정을 위해 신경망 모형과 상태공간 모형을 이용하여 홍수시 실시간 하천유출량 예측을 수행하였다. 두 모형의 예측결과 비교시 신경망 모형이 실시간 홍수량 예측에 적합한 모형으로 선정되었다. 신경망 모형은 Web 상에서 사용이 가능하게 변환하여 홍수유출 예측시스템의 기본모형으로 개발되었다. Web 기반 모형으로 개발된 신경망 모형을 서버에 탑재하고 금강수계의 본류와 주요 지점에 적용하여 Web 상에서 개발된 모형의 적용성을 검증하였다.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.599-609
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• 1999

Neural networks are explored as an alternative to a regres-sion model for prediction of the number of daily household vehicular trips. This study focuses on contrasting a neural network model with a regression model in term of variable selection as well as the appli-cation of these models for prediction of extreme observations, The differences in the models regarding data transformation variable selec-tion and multicollinearity are considered. The results indicate that the neural network model is a viable alternative to the regression model for addressing both messy data problems and limitation in variable structure specification.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.15-26
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• 1998

Full car model is needed for investigating as a entire dynamics of vehicle. In this study, 7DOF of full car model's dynamics is selected. This paper proposes the output feedback controller based on optimal control theory. Input data and output data from the optimal controller are used for neural network system identification of the suspension system. To do system identification, neural network which has robustness against nonlinearities and disturbances is adapted. This study uses back-propagation algorithm to train a multil-layer neural network. After obtaining a neural network model of a suspension system, a neuro-controller is designed. Neuro-controller controls suspension system with off-line learning method and multistep ahead prediction model based on the neural network model and a neuro-controller. The optimal controller and the neuro-controller are designed and then, both performances are compared through. For simulation, sinusoidal and rectangular virtual bumps are selected.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2007년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1427-1431
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• 2007

In this study, the new methodology which combines Kohonen self-organizing map(KSOM) neural networks model and the conventional neural networks models such as feedforward neural networks model and generalized neural networks model is introduced to forecast flood stage in Nakdong river, Republic of Korea. It is possible to train without output data in KSOM neural networks model. KSOM neural networks model is used to classify the input data before it combines with the conventional neural networks model. Four types of models such as SOM-FFNNM-BP, SOM-GRNNM-GA, FFNNM-BP, and GRNNM-GA are used to train and test performances respectively. From the statistical analysis for training and testing performances, SOM-GRNNM-GA shows the best results compared with the other models such as SOM-FFNNM-BP, FFNNM-BP, and GRNNM-GA and FFNNM-BP shows vice-versa. From this study, we can suggest the new methodology to forecast flood stage and construct flood warning system in river basin.