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Influence analysis of Internet buzz to corporate performance : Individual stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of online news (온라인 언급이 기업 성과에 미치는 영향 분석 : 뉴스 감성분석을 통한 기업별 주가 예측)

  • Jeong, Ji Seon;Kim, Dong Sung;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2015
  • Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

Variation of Leaf Characters in Cultivating and Wild Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] Germplasm (콩 재배종과 야생종 유전자원의 엽 형질 변이)

  • Jong, Seung-Keun;Kim, Hong-Sig
    • Korean Journal of Breeding Science
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2009
  • Although leaf characters are important in soybean [Glycin max (L.) Merr.] breeding and development of cultural methods, very little information has been reported. The objectives of this study were to evaluate and analyze the relationships among leaf characters and suggest possible classification criteria for cultivating and wild (Glycin soja Sieb. & Zucc.) soybeans. Total of 94 cultivating and 91 wild soybean accessions from the Soybean Germplasm Laboratory of Chungbuk National University were used for this study. Central leaflet of the second leaf from the top of the plant was selected to measure leaf characters. Average leaf length, leaf width, leaf area, leaf shape index (LSI) of cultivating and wild soybeans were 12.3$\pm$1.25 cm and 6.6$\pm$1.35 cm, 6.8$\pm$1.241 cm and 2.9$\pm$0.92 cm, 55.6$\pm$15.75 $cm^2$ and 14.3$\pm$7.83 $cm^2$, and 1.9$\pm$0.38 and 2.4$\pm$0.53, respectively. Based on LSI, three categories of leaf shape, i.e., oval, ovate and lanceolate, were defined as LIS$\leq$2.0, LSI 2.1~3.0 and 3.1$\leq$LSI, respectively. Percentage of oval, ovate and lanceolate leaf types among cultivating and wild soybean accessions were 78.7%, 17.0% and 4.3 %, and 40%, 15.4% and 4.4%, respectively. Based on leaf length, three categories for cultivating, i.e. short leaf ($\leq$11.0 cm), intermediate (11.1~13.0 cm), and long (13.1 cm$\leq$), and four categories, i.e. short ($\leq$5.0 cm), intermediate (5.1~7.0 cm), long (7.0~9.0 cm), and very long (9.1 cm$\leq$) for wild soybeans were defined. Short, intermediate and long leaf types were about 1/3, 1/2 and 1/6, respectively, in cultivating soybeans, and 15.4%, 40.7% and 39.5%, plus 4.4% of very long leaf type in wild soybean. Cultivating and wild soybeans had leaf thickness, leaf area ratio (LAR), angle and petiol length of 0.25$\pm$0.054 mm and 0.14$\pm$0.032 mm, 40.1$\pm$8.22 and 53.7$\pm$12.02, $37.6{\pm}5.89^{\circ}$ and $54.6{\pm}10.77^{\circ}$, and 23.9$\pm$5.89 cm and 5.9$\pm$2.33 cm, respectively. There were highly significant positive correlations between leaf length and leaf width, and negative correlation between LSI and leaf width both in cultivating and wild soybeans. Although leaf area showed significant correlations with leaf length, leaf width and LIS in cultivating soybeans, wild soybeans showed no significant relationships among these characters. In general, soybeans with oval, ovate and lanceolate leaves were significantly different in leaf width and thickness. Cultivating soybean with oval leaf had greater leaf area, while wild soybeans with oval or ovate leaf had longer petiol than with lanceolate leaf.

Eurasian Naval Power on Display: Sino-Russian Naval Exercises under Presidents Xi and Putin (유라시아 지역의 해군 전력 과시: 시진핑 주석과 푸틴 대통령 체제 하에 펼쳐지는 중러 해상합동훈련)

  • Richard Weitz
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-53
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    • 2022
  • One manifestation of the contemporary era of renewed great power competition has been the deepening relationship between China and Russia. Their strengthening military ties, notwithstanding their lack of a formal defense alliance, have been especially striking. Since China and Russia deploy two of the world's most powerful navies, their growing maritime cooperation has been one of the most significant international security developments of recent years. The Sino-Russian naval exercises, involving varying platforms and locations, have built on years of high-level personnel exchanges, large Russian weapons sales to China, the Sino-Russia Treaty of Friendship, and other forms of cooperation. Though the joint Sino-Russian naval drills began soon after Beijing and Moscow ended their Cold War confrontation, these exercises have become much more important during the last decade, essentially becoming a core pillar of their expanding defense partnership. China and Russia now conduct more naval exercises in more places and with more types of weapons systems than ever before. In the future, Chinese and Russian maritime drills will likely encompass new locations, capabilities, and partners-including possibly the Arctic, hypersonic delivery systems, and novel African, Asian, and Middle East partners-as well as continue such recent innovations as conducting joint naval patrols and combined arms maritime drills. China and Russia pursue several objectives through their bilateral naval cooperation. The Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation lacks a mutual defense clause, but does provide for consultations about common threats. The naval exercises, which rehearse non-traditional along with traditional missions (e.g., counter-piracy and humanitarian relief as well as with high-end warfighting), provide a means to enhance their response to such mutual challenges through coordinated military activities. Though the exercises may not realize substantial interoperability gains regarding combat capabilities, the drills do highlight to foreign audiences the Sino-Russian capacity to project coordinated naval power globally. This messaging is important given the reliance of China and Russia on the world's oceans for trade and the two countries' maritime territorial disputes with other countries. The exercises can also improve their national military capabilities as well as help them learn more about the tactics, techniques, and procedures of each other. The rising Chinese Navy especially benefits from working with the Russian armed forces, which have more experience conducting maritime missions, particularly in combat operations involving multiple combat arms, than the People's Liberation Army (PLA). On the negative side, these exercises, by enhancing their combat capabilities, may make Chinese and Russian policymakers more willing to employ military force or run escalatory risks in confrontations with other states. All these impacts are amplified in Northeast Asia, where the Chinese and Russian navies conduct most of their joint exercises. Northeast Asia has become an area of intensifying maritime confrontations involving China and Russia against the United States and Japan, with South Korea situated uneasily between them. The growing ties between the Chinese and Russian navies have complicated South Korean-U.S. military planning, diverted resources from concentrating against North Korea, and worsened the regional security environment. Naval planners in the United States, South Korea, and Japan will increasingly need to consider scenarios involving both the Chinese and Russian navies. For example, South Korean and U.S. policymakers need to prepare for situations in which coordinated Chinese and Russian military aggression overtaxes the Pentagon, obligating the South Korean Navy to rapidly backfill for any U.S.-allied security gaps that arise on the Korean Peninsula. Potentially reinforcing Chinese and Russian naval support to North Korea in a maritime confrontation with South Korea and its allies would present another serious challenge. Building on the commitment of Japan and South Korea to strengthen security ties, future exercises involving Japan, South Korea, and the United States should expand to consider these potential contingencies.

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Correlation of p53 Protein Overexpression, Gene Mutation with Prognosis in Resected Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer(NSCLC) Patients (비소세포폐암에서 p53유전자의 구조적 이상 및 단백질 발현이 예후에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Y.H.;Shin, D.H.;Kim, J.H.;Lim, H.Y.;Chung, K.Y.;Yang, W.I.;Kim, S.K.;Chang, J.;Roh, J.K.;Kim, S.K.;Lee, W.Y.;Kim, B.S.;Kim, B.S.
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.339-353
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    • 1994
  • Background : The p53 gene codes for a DNA-binding nuclear phosphoprotein that appears to inhibit the progression of cells from the G1 to the S phase of the cell cycle. Mutations of the p53 gene are common in a wide variety of human cancers, including lung cancer. In lung cancers, point mutations of the p53 gene have been found in all histological types including approximately 45% of resected NSCLC and even more frequently in SCLC specimens. Mutant forms of the p53 protein have transforming activity and interfere with the cell-cycle regulatory function of the wild-type protein. The majority of p53 gene mutations produce proteins with altered conformation and prolonged half life; these mutant proteins accumulate in the cell nucleus and can be detected by immunohistochemical staining. But protein overexpression has been reported in the absence of mutation. p53 protein overexpression or gene mutation is reported poor prognostic factor in breast cancer, but in lung cancer, its prognostic significance is controversial. Method : We investigated the p53 abnormalities by nucleotide sequencing, polymerase chain reaction-single strand conformation polymorphism(PCR-SSCP), and immunohistochemical staining. We correlated these results with each other and survival in 75 patients with NSCLC resected with curative intent. Overexpression of the p53 protein was studied immunohistochemically in archival paraffin- embedded tumor samples using the D07(Novocastra, U.K.) antibody. Overexpression of p53 protein was defined by the nuclear staining of greater than 25% immunopositive cells in tumors. Detection of p53 gene mutation was done by PCR-SSCP and nucleotide sequencing from the exon 5-9 of p53 gene. Result: 1) Of the 75 patients, 36%(27/75) showed p53 overexpression by immunohistochemical stain. There was no survival difference between positive and negative p53 immunostaining(overall median survival of 26 months, disease free median survival of 13 months in both groups). 2) By PCR-SSCP, 27.6%(16/58) of the patients showed mobility shift. There was no significant difference in survival according to mobility shift(overall median survival of 27 in patients without mobility shift vs 20 months in patients with mobility shift, disease free median survival of 8 months vs 10 months respectively). 3) Nucleotide sequence was analysed from 29 patients, and 34.5%(10/29) had mutant p53 sequence. Patients with the presence of gene mutations showed tendency to shortened survival compared with the patients with no mutation(overall median survival of 22 vs 27 months, disease free median survival of 10 vs 20 months), but there was no statistical significance. 4) The sensitivity and specificity of immunostain based on PCR-SSCP was 67.0%, 74.0%, and that of the PCR-SSCP based on the nucleotide sequencing was 91.8%, 96.2% respectively. The concordance rate between the immunostain and PCR-SSCP was 62.5%, and the rate between the PCR-SSCP and nucleotide sequencing was 95.3%. Conclusion : In terms of detection of p53 gene mutation, PCR-SSCP was superior to immunostaining. p53 gene abnormalities either overexpression or mutation were not a significant prognostic factor in NSCLC patients resected with curative intent. However, patients with the mutated p53 gene showed the trends of early relapse.

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The Impact of Market Environments on Optimal Channel Strategy Involving an Internet Channel: A Game Theoretic Approach (시장 환경이 인터넷 경로를 포함한 다중 경로 관리에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 게임 이론적 접근방법)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2011
  • Internet commerce has been growing at a rapid pace for the last decade. Many firms try to reach wider consumer markets by adding the Internet channel to the existing traditional channels. Despite the various benefits of the Internet channel, a significant number of firms failed in managing the new type of channel. Previous studies could not cleary explain these conflicting results associated with the Internet channel. One of the major reasons is most of the previous studies conducted analyses under a specific market condition and claimed that as the impact of Internet channel introduction. Therefore, their results are strongly influenced by the specific market settings. However, firms face various market conditions in the real worlddensity and disutility of using the Internet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of various market environments on a firm's optimal channel strategy by employing a flexible game theory model. We capture various market conditions with consumer density and disutility of using the Internet.

    shows the channel structures analyzed in this study. Before the Internet channel is introduced, a monopoly manufacturer sells its products through an independent physical store. From this structure, the manufacturer could introduce its own Internet channel (MI). The independent physical store could also introduce its own Internet channel and coordinate it with the existing physical store (RI). An independent Internet retailer such as Amazon could enter this market (II). In this case, two types of independent retailers compete with each other. In this model, consumers are uniformly distributed on the two dimensional space. Consumer heterogeneity is captured by a consumer's geographical location (ci) and his disutility of using the Internet channel (${\delta}_{N_i}$).
    shows various market conditions captured by the two consumer heterogeneities.
    (a) illustrates a market with symmetric consumer distributions. The model captures explicitly the asymmetric distributions of consumer disutility in a market as well. In a market like that is represented in
    (c), the average consumer disutility of using an Internet store is relatively smaller than that of using a physical store. For example, this case represents the market in which 1) the product is suitable for Internet transactions (e.g., books) or 2) the level of E-Commerce readiness is high such as in Denmark or Finland. On the other hand, the average consumer disutility when using an Internet store is relatively greater than that of using a physical store in a market like (b). Countries like Ukraine and Bulgaria, or the market for "experience goods" such as shoes, could be examples of this market condition. summarizes the various scenarios of consumer distributions analyzed in this study. The range for disutility of using the Internet (${\delta}_{N_i}$) is held constant, while the range of consumer distribution (${\chi}_i$) varies from -25 to 25, from -50 to 50, from -100 to 100, from -150 to 150, and from -200 to 200.
    summarizes the analysis results. As the average travel cost in a market decreases while the average disutility of Internet use remains the same, average retail price, total quantity sold, physical store profit, monopoly manufacturer profit, and thus, total channel profit increase. On the other hand, the quantity sold through the Internet and the profit of the Internet store decrease with a decreasing average travel cost relative to the average disutility of Internet use. We find that a channel that has an advantage over the other kind of channel serves a larger portion of the market. In a market with a high average travel cost, in which the Internet store has a relative advantage over the physical store, for example, the Internet store becomes a mass-retailer serving a larger portion of the market. This result implies that the Internet becomes a more significant distribution channel in those markets characterized by greater geographical dispersion of buyers, or as consumers become more proficient in Internet usage. The results indicate that the degree of price discrimination also varies depending on the distribution of consumer disutility in a market. The manufacturer in a market in which the average travel cost is higher than the average disutility of using the Internet has a stronger incentive for price discrimination than the manufacturer in a market where the average travel cost is relatively lower. We also find that the manufacturer has a stronger incentive to maintain a high price level when the average travel cost in a market is relatively low. Additionally, the retail competition effect due to Internet channel introduction strengthens as average travel cost in a market decreases. This result indicates that a manufacturer's channel power relative to that of the independent physical retailer becomes stronger with a decreasing average travel cost. This implication is counter-intuitive, because it is widely believed that the negative impact of Internet channel introduction on a competing physical retailer is more significant in a market like Russia, where consumers are more geographically dispersed, than in a market like Hong Kong, that has a condensed geographic distribution of consumers.
    illustrates how this happens. When mangers consider the overall impact of the Internet channel, however, they should consider not only channel power, but also sales volume. When both are considered, the introduction of the Internet channel is revealed as more harmful to a physical retailer in Russia than one in Hong Kong, because the sales volume decrease for a physical store due to Internet channel competition is much greater in Russia than in Hong Kong. The results show that manufacturer is always better off with any type of Internet store introduction. The independent physical store benefits from opening its own Internet store when the average travel cost is higher relative to the disutility of using the Internet. Under an opposite market condition, however, the independent physical retailer could be worse off when it opens its own Internet outlet and coordinates both outlets (RI). This is because the low average travel cost significantly reduces the channel power of the independent physical retailer, further aggravating the already weak channel power caused by myopic inter-channel price coordination. The results implies that channel members and policy makers should explicitly consider the factors determining the relative distributions of both kinds of consumer disutility, when they make a channel decision involving an Internet channel. These factors include the suitability of a product for Internet shopping, the level of E-Commerce readiness of a market, and the degree of geographic dispersion of consumers in a market. Despite the academic contributions and managerial implications, this study is limited in the following ways. First, a series of numerical analyses were conducted to derive equilibrium solutions due to the complex forms of demand functions. In the process, we set up V=100, ${\lambda}$=1, and ${\beta}$=0.01. Future research may change this parameter value set to check the generalizability of this study. Second, the five different scenarios for market conditions were analyzed. Future research could try different sets of parameter ranges. Finally, the model setting allows only one monopoly manufacturer in the market. Accommodating competing multiple manufacturers (brands) would generate more realistic results.

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