• Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.93-103
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• 2024

Mongolia's diverse geographical landscape and harsh climate make it particularly susceptible to various natural disasters, including forest fires, heavy rains, dust storms, and heavy snow. This study aims to explore the relationships between key climatic variables and the frequency of these disasters. We collected monthly data from January 2022 to April 2024, encompassing average temperature, temperature variability (absolute temperature difference), average humidity, and precipitation across the capitals of Mongolia's 21 provinces and the capital city Ulaanbaatar. The data were analyzed using multiple statistical models: Linear Regression, Poisson Regression, and Negative Binomial Regression. Descriptive statistics provided initial insights into the variability and distribution of the climatic variables and disaster occurrences. The models aimed to identify significant predictors and quantify their impact on disaster frequencies. Our approach involved standardizing the predictor variables to ensure comparability and interpretability of the regression coefficients. Our findings indicate that climatic variables significantly affect the frequency of natural disasters. The Negative Binomial Regression model was particularly suitable for our data, which exhibited overdispersion common characteristic in count data such as disaster occurrences. Understanding these relationships is crucial for developing targeted disaster management strategies and policies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on Mongolian communities. This research provides valuable insights into how climatic changes impact disaster occurrences, offering a foundation for informed decision-making and policy development to enhance community resilience.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.10
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• pp.83-93
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• 2016

In this paper, I study to determine the effect on patent applicants across the network characteristics of innovation in the ICT sector in Korea. For that, I use the Social Network Analysis(SNA) and the Negative Binomial Regression(NBR). The results about the innovation network in Korea ICT is very dense type. And the degree centrality and the closeness centrality had such a positive effect on innovation performance. Also, the efficiency had not reached a significant effect and the constraint was found to have a negative effect on innovation performance. In the future, based on these results, we need to plan a proper policy of the Korea Technology Innovation Policy.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.333-340
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• 2016

The aim of this study is to specifically understand the characteristics of the crime by empirical analysis for the determining factors that affect determining the crime through the space syntax in Busan. In this study, poisson regression and negative binomial regression were used for accurate analysis. 8 variables that were significant of the total 13 variables. The summary if this study based on the results is as follow. Statistically significant variables are female ratio, over 65 population ratio, administration are and commercial area ratio in characteristics. And the more CCTVs a region has, the lower crime rate it shows. As a results of examing whether space syntax variables can predict crime occurrence places. Space with low connectivity come to be a crime causal factor because they have few other related spaces and thereby have low possibility of sudden appearance of interrupters, which results in low surveillance levels of foot passengers. It will provide the basic data that can contribute to urban planning and implementation of crime prevention aspects.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.151-157
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• 2014

This study deals with the rear-end collision at roundabouts. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rear-end collision in Korea. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attention to developing the appropriate models using Poisson, negative binomial model, ZAM, multiple linear and nonlinear regression models, and statistical analysis tools. The main results are as follows. First, the Vuong statistics and overdispersion parameters indicate that ZIP is the most appropriate model among count data models. Second, RMSE, MPB, MAD and correlation coefficient tests show that the multiple nonlinear model is the most suitable to the rear-end collision data. Finally, such the independent variables as traffic volume, ratio of heavy vehicle, number of circulatory roadway lane, number of crosswalk and stop line are adopted in the optimal model.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.285-294
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• 2015

Background: Suicide is one of important health problems in Korea. Previous studies showed factors associated with suicide in individual levels. However, suicide was influenced by society that individuals belong to, so it was required to analyze suicide in local levels. The purpose of this study was to analyze the regional disparities of suicide mortality by gender and the association between local characteristics and suicide mortality. Methods: This study included 229 city county district administrative districts in Korea. Age- and sex-standardized suicide mortality and age-standardized suicide mortality (male/female) were used as dependent variables. City county district types, socio-demographics (number of divorces per 1,000 population, number of marriages per 1,000 population, and single households), financial variable (financial independence), welfare variable (welfare budget), and health behavior/status (perceived health status scores and EuroQol-5 dimension [EQ-5D]) were used to represent the local characteristics. We used hot-spot analysis to identify the spatial patterns of suicide mortality and negative binomial regression analysis to examine factors affecting suicide mortality. Results: There were differences in distribution of suicide mortality and hot-spot regions of suicide mortality by gender. Negative binomial regression analysis provided that city county district types (city), number of divorces per 1,000 population, financial independence, and EQ-5D had significant influences on the age- and sex-standardized suicide mortality per 100,000. Factor influencing suicide mortality was the number of divorces per 1,000 population in both male and female. Conclusion: Study results provided evidences that suicide mortality among regions was differed by gender. Health policy makers will need to consider gender and local characteristics when making policies for suicides.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.103-110
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• 2012

PURPOSES : In Korea, over 70 percent of the land consists of mountainous and rolling area. Thus, tunnels continue its upward trend as road network are extended. In these circumstances, the importance of tunnel has been increased nowadays and then its safety investigation and research should be performed. This study is focus on confirming and improving the safety of tunnel. On tunnel hood, sunglare effect can irritate driver's behavior instantly and this can result in incident. METHODS : The study of this phenomenon is rarely conducted in domestic and foreign papers, so there is no proper measure for this. This study analyzes the driving environment of the effect of sunglare effect on tunnel hood. RESULTS : Traffic accidents stem from complex set of factors. This study build the Traffic Accident Prediction Models to find out the effect of sunglare effect on tunnel's hood. The independent variables are traffic volume, geometric design of road, length of tunnel and road side environment. Using these variables, this model estimates accident frequency on tunnel hood by Poisson regression model and Negative binomial regression model. Although Poisson regression model have more proper goodness of fit than Negative binomial regression model, Poisson regression model has overdipersion problem. So the Negative binomial regression model is used in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS : Consequently, the model shows that sunglare effect can play a role in driving safety on tunnel hood. As a result, the information of sunglare effect should be noticed ahead of tunnel hood so this can prevent drivers from being in hazard situation.

• 한국ITS학회:학술대회논문집
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• v.2007 no.10
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• pp.92-99
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• 2007

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.79-101
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the Songieong Beach in Off-season, using a Individual Travel Cost Model(ITCM). Songieong Beach is located in Busan but far away from city. These days, however, the increased rate of traffic inflow to the Songieong beach and the five-day working week are reflected in the trend analysis. Moreover, people have changed psychological value. For that reason, visitors are on the increase on the beach in off-season. The ITCM is applied to estimate non-market value or environmental Good like a Contingent Valuation Method and Hedonic Price Model etc. The ITCM was derived from the Count Data Model(i.e. Poisson and Negative Binomial model). So this paper compares Poisson and negative binomial count data models to measure the tourism demands. The data for the study were collected from the Songjeong Beach on visitors over the a week from November 1 through November 23, 2006. Interviewers were instructed to interview only individuals. So the sample was taken in 113. A dependent variable that is defined on the non-negative integers and subject to sampling truncation is the result of a truncated count data process. This paper analyzes the effects of determinants on visitors' demand for exhibition using a class of maximum-likelihood regression estimators for count data from truncated samples, The count data and truncated models are used primarily to explain non-negative integer and truncation properties of tourist trips as suggested by the economic valuation literature. The results suggest that the truncated negative binomial model is improved overdispersion problem and more preferred than the other models in the study. This paper is not the same as the others. One thing is that Estimating Value of the Beach in off-season. The other thing is this study emphasizes in particular 'travel cost' that is not only monetary cost but also including opportunity cost of 'travel time'. According to the truncated negative binomial model, estimates the Consumer Surplus(CS) values per trip of about 199,754 Korean won and the total economic value was estimated to be 1,288,680 Korean won.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.83-91
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• 2012

PURPOSES : This study deals with Rotary by Accident Occurrence Location. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rotary by location. METHODS : In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using multiple linear, Poisson and negative binomial regression models and statistical analysis tools. RESULTS : First, four multiple linear regression models which are statistically significant(their $R^2$ values are 0.781, 0.300, 0.784 and 0.644 respectively) are developed, and four Poisson regression models which are statistically significant(their ${\rho}^2$ values are 0.407, 0.306, 0.378 and 0.366 respectively) are developed. Second, the test results of fitness using RMSE, %RMSE, MPB and MAD show that Poisson regression model in the case of circulatory roadway, pedestrian crossing and others and multiple linear regression model in the case of entry/exit sections are appropriate to the given data. Finally, the common variable that affects to the accident is adopted to be traffic volume. CONCLUSIONS : 8 models which are all statistically significant are developed, and the common and specific variables that are related to the models are derived.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.603-613
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• 2008

We often encounter the situation that discrete count data have a large portion of zeros. In this case, it is not appropriate to analyze the data based on standard regression models such as the poisson or negative binomial regression models. In this article, we consider Bayesian analysis for two commonly used models. They are zero-inflated poisson and negative binomial regression models. We use the Bayes factor as a model selection tool and computation is proceeded via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Crash count data are analyzed to support theoretical results.