• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.13-22
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• 2007

The uncertainty in water quality model predictions is inevitably high due to natural stochasticity, model uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. An integrated modeling system under uncertainty was described and demonstrated for use in watershed management and receiving-water quality prediction. A watershed model (HSPF), a receiving water quality model (WASP), and a wetland model (NPS-WET) were incorporated into an integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) and applied to the Hwaseong Reservoir watershed. Reservoir water quality was predicted using the calibrated integrated modeling system, and the deterministic integrated modeling output was useful for estimating mean water quality given future watershed conditions and assessing the spatial distribution of pollutant loads. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to investigate the effect of various uncertainties on output prediction. Without pollution control measures in the watershed, the concentrations of total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorous (T-P) in the Hwaseong Reservoir, considering uncertainty, would be less than about 4.8 and 0.26 mg 4.8 and 0.26 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively, with 95% confidence. The effects of two watershed management practices, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a constructed wetland (WETLAND), were evaluated. The combined scenario (WWTP + WETLAND) was the most effective at improving reservoir water quality, bringing concentrations of T-N and T-P in the Hwaseong Reservoir to less than 3.54 and 0.15 mg ${L^{-1}$, 26.7 and 42.9% improvements, respectively, with 95% confidence. Overall, the Monte Carlo simulation in the integrated modeling system was practical for estimating uncertainty and reliable in water quality prediction. The approach described here may allow decisions to be made based on probability and level of risk, and its application is recommended.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.103-112
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• 2011

The main objective of this research was to estimate Nitrogen budget of South Korea in 2008. Input-output budgets for nitrogen fluxes were categorized into three sections: cities, agricultural area, and forest. Chemical and biological fixation, dry and wet deposition, imported food and feed were used as the nitrogen input. Crop uptake, volatilization, denitrification, leaching, runoff, and forest consumption were used as the nitrogen outputs. Annual total nitrogen input was 1,294,155 ton/yr, and output was 632,228 ton/yr. Comparison with a previous research in 2005 indicates that nitrogen input was decreased by 1.9% due to the decrease in nitrogen fertilizer while nitrogen output was decreased by 6.3%. Non-point source (NPS) pollution was also estimated by mass balance approach, which increased by 22% than the previous research in 2005. The emission of nitrous oxide ($N_2O$) caused by denitrification was newly examined in this research. About 8,289 ton/yr of $N_2O$ was released from agriculture area and domestic wastewater treatment plant.