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A study on Operation Rules of Korean Air Defence Identification Zone (한국 방공식별구역 운영규칙에 관한 고찰)

  • Kwon, Jong-Pil;Lee, Yeong H.
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.189-217
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    • 2017
  • Declaration of Air Defense and Identification Zones started with the United States in 1950, which was followed by declaration of KADIZ by the Republic of Korea in 1951. Initial ADIZ were solely linked with air defense missions, but their roles have changed as nations around the globe manifested a tendency to expand their influence over maritime resources and rights. In particular, China declared ADIZ over the East China Sea in October 2013 and forced all passing aircraft to submit flight plan to ATC or military authority, saying failure of submission will be followed by armed engagement. China announced it would declare another zone over the South China Sea despite the ongoing conflict in the area, clearly showing ADIZ's direct connection with territorial claim and EEZ and that it serves as a zone within which a nation can execute its rights. The expanded KADIZ, which was expanded in Dec 15, 2013 in response to Chinese actions, overlaps with the Chinese ADIZ over the East China Sea and the Japanese ADIZ. The overlapping zone is an airspace over waters where not only the Republic of Korea but also of China and Japan argue to be covering their continental shelf and EEZ. Military conventions were signed to prevent contingencies among the neighboring nations while conducting identifications in KADIZ, including the overlapping zone. If such military conventions and practice of air defense identification continue to be respected among states, it is under the process of turning into a regional customary law, although ADIZ is not yet recognized by international law or customary law. Moreover, identification within ADIZ is carried out by military authorities of states, and misguided customary procedures may cause serious negative consequences for national security since it may negatively impact neighboring countries in marking the maritime border, which calls for formulation of operation rules that account for other state activities and military talks among regional stake holders. Legal frameworks need to be in place to guarantee freedom of flights over international seas which UN Maritime Law protects, and laws regarding military aircraft operation need to be supplemented to not make it a requirement to submit flight plan if the aircraft does not invade sovereign airspace. Organizational instructions that require approval of Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff for entrance and exit of ADIZ for military aircraft need to be amended to change the authority to Minister of National Defense or be promoted to a law to be applicable for commercial aircraft. Moreover, in regards to operation and management of ADIZ, transfer of authority should be prohibited to account for its evolution into a regional customary law in South East Asia. In particular, since ADIZ is set over EEZ, military conventions that yield authority related to national security should never be condoned. Among Korea, China, Japan and Russia, there are military conventions that discuss operation and management of ADIZ in place or under negotiation, meaning that ADIZ is becoming a regional customary law in North East Asia region.

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Study for Treatment Effects and Prognostic Factors of Bronchial Asthma -Follow Up Over 2 Years- (2년 이상 관찰중인 성안 기관지 천식환자의 치료 효과 및 예후인자에 관한 연구)

  • Choung, Bo-Young;Park, Jung-Won;Kim, Sung-Kyu;Hong, Chein-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.559-573
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    • 1997
  • Background : Asthma causes recurrent episodes of wheezing, breathlessness, chest tightness, and cough. These symptoms are usually associated with widespread but variable airflow limitation that is partly reversible either spontaneously or with treatment. The inflammation also causes an associated increase in airway responsiveness to a variety of stimuli. Method : Of the 403 adult bronchial asthma patients enrolled from March 1992 to March 1994 in Allergy Clinics of Severance Hospital in Yonsei University, this study reviewed the 97 cases to evaluate the treatment effects and to analyse prognostic factors. The patients were classified to five groups according to treatment responses ; group 1 (non control group) : patients who were not controlled during following up, group 2 (high step treatment group) : patients who were controlled longer than 3 months by step 3 or 4 treatment of "Global initiative for asthma, Global strategy for asthma management and prevention" (NHLBI/WHO) with PFR(%) larger than 80%, group 3 (short term control group) : patients who were controlled less than 1 year by step 1 or 2 treatment of NHLBI/WHO, group 4 (intermediate term control group) : patients who were controlled for more than 1 year but less than 2 years by step 1 or 2 treatment of NHLBI/WHO, group 5 (long term control group) : patients who were controlled for more than 2 years by step 1 or 2 treatment of NHLBI/WHO. Especially the patients who were controlled more than 1 year with negatively converted methacholine test and no eosinophil in sputum were classified to methacholine negative conversion group. We reviewed patients' history, atopy score, total IgE, specific IgE, methacholine PC20 and peripheral blood eosinophil count, pulmonary function test, steroid doses and aggrevation numbers after treatment. Results : On analysis of 98 patients, 20 cases(20.6%) were classified to group 1, 26 cases(26.8%) to group 2, 23 cases(23.7%) to group 3, 15 cases(15.5%) to group 4, and 13 cases(13.4%) to groups 5. There were no differences of sex, asthma type, family history, smoking history, allergic rhinitis and aspirin allergy among the groups. In long term control group, asthma onset age was younger, symptom duration was shorter, and initial pulmonary function was better. The long term control group required lower amounts of oral steroid. had less aggrevation during first 3months after starting treatment and shorter duration from enrollment to control Atopy, allergic skin test, sputum and blood eosinophil, total IgE, nonspecific bronchial responsiveness was not significantly different among the groups. Seven out of 28 patients who were controlled more than 1 years showed negatively converted methachloine test and no eosinophils in the sputum. The mean control duration was $20.3{\pm}9.7$ months and relapse did not occur. Conclusion : Patients who had asthma of onset age younger, shorter symptom duration, better PFT, lower treatment initial steps, lower amounts of steroid needs and less aggravation numbers after starting treatment were classified in the long term control groups compared to the others.

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Analysis of Specificity for Tumor Marker CYFRA 21-1 in Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis (폐결핵 환자에서 종양표지자 CYFRA 21-1의 특이도 분석)

  • Ha, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Jae-Sung;Song, Sun-Dae;Kim, Cheol-Min;Lee, Min-Gi;Kim, In-Joo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.290-300
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    • 1998
  • Background: CYFRA 21-1 is a tumor marker which measures a fragment of cytokeratin 19 expressed by epithelial cells in bronchus. It is known that cytokeratin 19 is abundant in squamous epithelial cell cancer of the lung. However, if the incidence of elevated serum CYFRA 21-1 level in patients with benign lung diseases or pulmonary tuberculosis with severe parenchymal damage is high the specificity of CYFRA 21-1 could be decreased. The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes of serum CYFRA 21-1 according to the degree of parenchymal damage and the usefulness of CYFRA 21-1 for diagnosing possibly combined lung cancer in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. Method: We studied the changes of serum CYFRA 21-1 according to the sputum AFB stain, radiologic manifestation and history of treatment in 81 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, and 20 healthy persons, 25 patients with lung cancer, as a control group. CYFRA 21-1 concentration in serum was quantified by the immunoradiometry assay(Centocor$^{(R)}$). Result: The results were as follow; Serum CYFRA 21-1 level was significantly lower in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis($1.54{\pm}1.19ng/mL$, p<0.01) as compared to patients with lung cancer($12.25{\pm}15.97ng/mL$), and was slightly higher than the level in heathy persons($0.90{\pm}0.49ng/mL$) but there was no significant difference. Serum CYFRA 21-1 level was below the cut-off value of 3.3ng/mL in 95 percent of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis but it was above the cut-off value in 64 percent of patients with lung cancer. Serum CYFRA 21-1 level was significantly higher in the initial treatment group($1.91{\pm}1.55ng/mL$, p<0.05) as compared to the treatment. failure group ($0.92{\pm}0.30ng/mL$). According to the sputum AFB smear, serum CYFRA 21-1 level in patients with negative result was slightly higher than the level in patients with positive result but there was no significant difference. According to the radiologic manifestation, serum CYFRA 21-1 level was significantly higher in patients with infiltrative lesion ($2.15{\pm}1.63ng/mL$, p<0.01) as compared to patients with destructive lesion ($l.04{\pm}0.54ng/mL$). As the size of cavity or destructive lesion was larger, the level was significantly lower(p<0.05). Conclusion: As serum CYFRA 21-1 level was significantly higher in the initial treatment group and patients with infiltrative lesion, it suppose to be closely related with the degree of parenchymal damage of the lung of the pulmonary tuberculosis. However CYFRA 21-1 could be useful method for diagnosing lung cancer even in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis combined with lung cancer because of the fact that it was below the cutoff value of 3.3ng/mL in 95 percent of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.

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Summative Evaluation of 1993, 1994 Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation (제 1, 2회 학생 과학 공동탐구 토론대회의 종합적 평가)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Yoon, Hye-Gyoung
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.376-388
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    • 1996
  • The first and the second "Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation" was evaluated in this study. This contest was a part of 'Korean Youth Science Festival' held in 1993 and 1994. The evaluation was based on the data collected from the middle school students of final teams, their teachers, a large number of middle school students and college students who were audience of the final competition. Questionnaires, interviews, reports of final teams, and video tape of final competition were used to collect data. The study focussed on three research questions. The first was about the preparation and the research process of students of final teams. The second was about the format and the proceeding of the Contest. The third was whether participating the Contest was useful experience for the students and the teachers of the final teams. The first area, the preparation and the research process of students, were investigated in three aspects. One was the level of cooperation, participation, support and the role of teachers. The second was the information search and experiment, and the third was the report writing. The students of the final teams from both years, had positive opinion about the cooperation, students' active involvement, and support from family and school. Students considered their teachers to be a guide or a counsellor, showing their level of active participation. On the other hand, the interview of 1993 participants showed that there were times that teachers took strong leading role. Therefore one can conclude that students took active roles most of the time while the room for improvement still exists. To search the information they need during the period of the preparation, student visited various places such as libraries, bookstores, universities, and research institutes. Their search was not limited to reading the books, although the books were primary source of information. Students also learned how to organize the information they found and considered leaning of organizing skill useful and fun. Variety of experiments was an important part of preparation and students had positive opinion about it. Understanding related theory was considered most difficult and important, while designing and building proper equipments was considered difficult but not important. This reflects the students' school experience where the equipments were all set in advance and students were asked to confirm the theories presented in the previous class hours. About the reports recording the research process, students recognize the importance and the necessity of the report but had difficulty in writing it. Their reports showed tendency to list everything they did without clear connection to the problem to be solved. Most of the reports did not record the references and some of them confused report writing with story telling. Therefore most of them need training in writing the reports. It is also desirable to describe the process of student learning when theory or mathematics that are beyond the level of middle school curriculum were used because it is part of their investigation. The second area of evaluation was about the format and the proceeding of the Contest, the problems given to students, and the process of student discussion. The format of the Contests, which consisted of four parts, presentation, refutation, debate and review, received good evaluation from students because it made students think more and gave more difficult time but was meaningful and helped to remember longer time according to students. On the other hand, students said the time given to each part of the contest was too short. The problems given to students were short and open ended to stimulate students' imagination and to offer various possible routes to the solution. This type of problem was very unfamiliar and gave a lot of difficulty to students. Student had positive opinion about the research process they experienced but did not recognize the fact that such a process was possible because of the oneness of the task. The level of the problems was rated as too difficult by teachers and college students but as appropriate by the middle school students in audience and participating students. This suggests that it is possible for student to convert the problems to be challengeable and intellectually satisfactory appropriate for their level of understanding even when the problems were difficult for middle school students. During the process of student discussion, a few problems were observed. Some problems were related to the technics of the discussion, such as inappropriate behavior for the role he/she was taking, mismatching answers to the questions. Some problems were related to thinking. For example, students thinking was off balanced toward deductive reasoning, and reasoning based on experimental data was weak. The last area of evaluation was the effect of the Contest. It was measured through the change of the attitude toward science and science classes, and willingness to attend the next Contest. According to the result of the questionnaire, no meaningful change in attitude was observed. However, through the interview several students were observed to have significant positive change in attitude while no student with negative change was observed. Most of the students participated in Contest said they would participate again or recommend their friend to participate. Most of the teachers agreed that the Contest should continue and they would recommend their colleagues or students to participate. As described above, the "Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation", which was developed and tried as a new science contest, had positive response from participating students and teachers, and the audience. Two among the list of results especially demonstrated that the goal of the Contest, "active and cooperative science learning experience", was reached. One is the fact that students recognized the experience of cooperation, discussion, information search, variety of experiments to be fun and valuable. The other is the fact that the students recognized the format of the contest consisting of presentation, refutation, discussion and review, required more thinking and was challenging, but was more meaningful. Despite a few problems such as, unfamiliarity with the technics of discussion, weakness in inductive and/or experiment based reasoning, and difficulty in report writing, The Contest demonstrated the possibility of new science learning environment and science contest by offering the chance to challenge open tasks by utilizing student science knowledge and ability to inquire and to discuss rationally and critically with other students.

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Changes in blood pressure and determinants of blood pressure level and change in Korean adolescents (성장기 청소년의 혈압변화와 결정요인)

  • Suh, Il;Nam, Chung-Mo;Jee, Sun-Ha;Kim, Suk-Il;Kim, Young-Ok;Kim, Sung-Soon;Shim, Won-Heum;Kim, Chun-Bae;Lee, Kang-Hee;Ha, Jong-Won;Kang, Hyung-Gon;Oh, Kyung-Won
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.2 s.57
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    • pp.308-326
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    • 1997
  • Many studies have led to the notion that essential hypertension in adults is the result of a process that starts early in life: investigation of blood pressure(BP) in children and adolescents can therefore contribute to knowledge of the etiology of the condition. A unique longitudinal study on BP in Korea, known as Kangwha Children's Blood Pressure(KCBP) Study was initiated in 1986 to investigate changes in BP in children. This study is a part of the KCBP study. The purposes of this study are to show changes in BP and to determine factors affecting to BP level and change in Korean adolescents during age period 12 to 16 years. A total of 710 students(335 males, 375 females) who were in the first grade at junior high school(12 years old) in 1992 in Kangwha County, Korea have been followed to measure BP and related factors(anthropometric, serologic and dietary factors) annually up to 1996. A total of 562 students(242 males, 320 females) completed all five annual examinations. The main results are as follows: 1. For males, mean systolic and diastolic BP at age 12 and 16 years old were 108.7 mmHg and 118.1 mmHg(systolic), and 69.5 mmHg and 73.4 mmHg(diastolic), respectively. BP level was the highest when students were at 15 years old. For females, mean systolic and diastolic BP at age 12 and 16 years were 114.4 mmHg and 113.5 mmHg(systolic) and 75.2 mmHg and 72.1 mmHg(diastolic), respectively. BP level reached the highest point when they were 13-14 years old. 2. Anthropometric variables(height, weight and body mass index, etc) increased constantly during the study period for males. However, the rate of increase was decreased for females after age 15 years. Serum total cholesterol decreased and triglyceride increased according to age for males, but they did not show any significant trend fer females. Total fat intake increased at age 16 years compared with that at age 14 years. Compositions of carbohydrate, protein and fat among total energy intake were 66.2:12.0:19.4, 64.1:12.1:21.8 at age 14 and 16 years, respectively. 3. Most of anthropometric measures, especially, height, body mass index(BMI) and triceps skinfold thickness showed a significant correlation with BP level in both sexes. When BMI was adjusted, serum total cholesterol showed a significant negative correlation with systolic BP at age 12 years in males, but at age 14 years the direction of correlation changed to positive. In females serum total cholesterol was negatively correlated with diastolic BP at age 15 and 16 years. Triglyceride and creatinine showed positive correlation with systolic and diastolic BP in males, but they did not show any correlation in females. There was no consistent findings between nutrient intake and BP level. However, protein intake correlated positively with diastolic BP level in males. 4. Blood pressure change was positively associated with changes in BMI and serum total cholesterol in both sexes. Change in creatinine was associated with BP change positively in males and negatively in females. Students whose sodium intake was high showed higher systolic and diastolic BP in males, and students whose total fat intake was high maintained lower level of BP in females. The major determinants on BP change was BMI in both sexes.

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Role of PI3K/Akt Pathway in the Activation of IκB/NF-κB Pathway in Lung Epithelial Cells (폐 상피세포에서 PI3K/Akt 경로가 IκB/NF-κB 경로의 활성화에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sang-Min;Kim, Yoon Kyung;Hwang, Yoon-Ha;Lee, Chang-Hoon;Lee, Hee-Seok;Lee, Choon-Taek;Kim, Young Whan;Han, Sung Koo;Shim, Young-Soo;Yoo, Chul-Gyu
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.551-562
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    • 2003
  • Background : NF-${\kappa}B$ is a characteristic transcriptional factor which has been shown to regulate production of acute inflammatory mediators and to be involved in the pathogenesis of many inflammatory lung diseases. There has been some evidence that PI3K/Akt pathway could activate NF-${\kappa}B$ in human cell lines. However, the effect of PI3K/Akt pathway on the activation of NF-${\kappa}B$ varied depending on the cell lines used in the experiments. In this study we evaluated the effect of PI3K/Akt pathway on the activation of NF-${\kappa}B$ in human respiratory epithelial cell lines. Methods : BEAS-2B, A549 and NCI-H157 cell lines were used in this experiment. To evaluate the activation of Akt activation and I${\kappa}B$ degradation, cells were analysed by western blot assay using phospho-specific Akt Ab and $I{\kappa}B$ Ab. To block PI3K/Akt pathway, cells were pretreated with wortmannin or LY294002 and transfected with dominant negative Akt (DN-Akt). For IKK activity, immune complex kinase assay was performed. To evaluate the DNA binding affinity and transcriptional activity of NF-${\kappa}B$, electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) and luciferase assay were performed, respectively. Results : In BEAS-2B, A549 and NCI-H157 cell lines, Akt was activated by TNF-$\alpha$ and insulin. Activation of Akt by insulin did not induce $I{\kappa}B{\alpha}$ degradation. Blocking of PI3K/Akt pathway via wortmannin/LY294002 or DN-Akt did not inhibit TNF-$\alpha$-induced $I{\kappa}B{\alpha}$ degradation or IKK activation. Inhibition of PI3K/Akt did not affect TNF-$\alpha$-induced NF-${\kappa}B$ activation. Overexpression of DN-Akt did not block TNF-$\alpha$-induced transcriptional activation of NF-${\kappa}B$, but wortmannin enhanced TNF-$\alpha$-induced in NF-${\kappa}B$ transcriptional activity. Conclusion : PI3K/Akt was not involved in TNF-$\alpha$-induced $I{\kappa}B{\alpha}$ degradation or transcriptional activity of NF-${\kappa}B$ in human respiratory epithelial cell lines.

Development of Quantification Methods for the Myocardial Blood Flow Using Ensemble Independent Component Analysis for Dynamic $H_2^{15}O$ PET (동적 $H_2^{15}O$ PET에서 앙상블 독립성분분석법을 이용한 심근 혈류 정량화 방법 개발)

  • Lee, Byeong-Il;Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Dong-Soo;Kang, Won-Jun;Lee, Jong-Jin;Kim, Soo-Jin;Choi, Seung-Jin;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.486-491
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: factor analysis and independent component analysis (ICA) has been used for handling dynamic image sequences. Theoretical advantages of a newly suggested ICA method, ensemble ICA, leaded us to consider applying this method to the analysis of dynamic myocardial $H_2^{15}O$ PET data. In this study, we quantified patients' blood flow using the ensemble ICA method. Materials and Methods: Twenty subjects underwent $H_2^{15}O$ PET scans using ECAT EXACT 47 scanner and myocardial perfusion SPECT using Vertex scanner. After transmission scanning, dynamic emission scans were initiated simultaneously with the injection of $555{\sim}740$ MBq $H_2^{15}O$. Hidden independent components can be extracted from the observed mixed data (PET image) by means of ICA algorithms. Ensemble learning is a variational Bayesian method that provides an analytical approximation to the parameter posterior using a tractable distribution. Variational approximation forms a lower bound on the ensemble likelihood and the maximization of the lower bound is achieved through minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posterior and the variational posterior. In this study, posterior pdf was approximated by a rectified Gaussian distribution to incorporate non-negativity constraint, which is suitable to dynamic images in nuclear medicine. Blood flow was measured in 9 regions - apex, four areas in mid wall, and four areas in base wall. Myocardial perfusion SPECT score and angiography results were compared with the regional blood flow. Results: Major cardiac components were separated successfully by the ensemble ICA method and blood flow could be estimated in 15 among 20 patients. Mean myocardial blood flow was $1.2{\pm}0.40$ ml/min/g in rest, $1.85{\pm}1.12$ ml/min/g in stress state. Blood flow values obtained by an operator in two different occasion were highly correlated (r=0.99). In myocardium component image, the image contrast between left ventricle and myocardium was 1:2.7 in average. Perfusion reserve was significantly different between the regions with and without stenosis detected by the coronary angiography (P<0.01). In 66 segment with stenosis confirmed by angiography, the segments with reversible perfusion decrease in perfusion SPECT showed lower perfusion reserve values in $H_2^{15}O$ PET. Conclusions: Myocardial blood flow could be estimated using an ICA method with ensemble learning. We suggest that the ensemble ICA incorporating non-negative constraint is a feasible method to handle dynamic image sequence obtained by the nuclear medicine techniques.

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

The Framework of Research Network and Performance Evaluation on Personal Information Security: Social Network Analysis Perspective (개인정보보호 분야의 연구자 네트워크와 성과 평가 프레임워크: 소셜 네트워크 분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Minsu;Choi, Jaewon;Kim, Hyun Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.177-193
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    • 2014
  • Over the past decade, there has been a rapid diffusion of electronic commerce and a rising number of interconnected networks, resulting in an escalation of security threats and privacy concerns. Electronic commerce has a built-in trade-off between the necessity of providing at least some personal information to consummate an online transaction, and the risk of negative consequences from providing such information. More recently, the frequent disclosure of private information has raised concerns about privacy and its impacts. This has motivated researchers in various fields to explore information privacy issues to address these concerns. Accordingly, the necessity for information privacy policies and technologies for collecting and storing data, and information privacy research in various fields such as medicine, computer science, business, and statistics has increased. The occurrence of various information security accidents have made finding experts in the information security field an important issue. Objective measures for finding such experts are required, as it is currently rather subjective. Based on social network analysis, this paper focused on a framework to evaluate the process of finding experts in the information security field. We collected data from the National Discovery for Science Leaders (NDSL) database, initially collecting about 2000 papers covering the period between 2005 and 2013. Outliers and the data of irrelevant papers were dropped, leaving 784 papers to test the suggested hypotheses. The co-authorship network data for co-author relationship, publisher, affiliation, and so on were analyzed using social network measures including centrality and structural hole. The results of our model estimation are as follows. With the exception of Hypothesis 3, which deals with the relationship between eigenvector centrality and performance, all of our hypotheses were supported. In line with our hypothesis, degree centrality (H1) was supported with its positive influence on the researchers' publishing performance (p<0.001). This finding indicates that as the degree of cooperation increased, the more the publishing performance of researchers increased. In addition, closeness centrality (H2) was also positively associated with researchers' publishing performance (p<0.001), suggesting that, as the efficiency of information acquisition increased, the more the researchers' publishing performance increased. This paper identified the difference in publishing performance among researchers. The analysis can be used to identify core experts and evaluate their performance in the information privacy research field. The co-authorship network for information privacy can aid in understanding the deep relationships among researchers. In addition, extracting characteristics of publishers and affiliations, this paper suggested an understanding of the social network measures and their potential for finding experts in the information privacy field. Social concerns about securing the objectivity of experts have increased, because experts in the information privacy field frequently participate in political consultation, and business education support and evaluation. In terms of practical implications, this research suggests an objective framework for experts in the information privacy field, and is useful for people who are in charge of managing research human resources. This study has some limitations, providing opportunities and suggestions for future research. Presenting the difference in information diffusion according to media and proximity presents difficulties for the generalization of the theory due to the small sample size. Therefore, further studies could consider an increased sample size and media diversity, the difference in information diffusion according to the media type, and information proximity could be explored in more detail. Moreover, previous network research has commonly observed a causal relationship between the independent and dependent variable (Kadushin, 2012). In this study, degree centrality as an independent variable might have causal relationship with performance as a dependent variable. However, in the case of network analysis research, network indices could be computed after the network relationship is created. An annual analysis could help mitigate this limitation.